File picture for reference only.

 

Thailand’s tourism confidence index for the second quarter has plunged sharply, signalling elevated risk to an industry still striving to recover from pandemic-era shocks.

 

According to the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), the tourism confidence index slumped to just 70 in Q2 2025, well below the pre‑pandemic benchmark of 100. This marks a significant decline from 83in Q1 and 79 in the same period last year  .

 

A survey of 740 tourism operators conducted between 25 May and 10 June revealed the sector’s deepening woes, including safety concerns and cautious consumer sentiment following the US’s reciprocal tariff policy  .

 

Several compounding issues have weighed on confidence:

 

• A kidnapping of a Chinese actor and a Myanmar earthquake in March contributed to a dramatic decline in Chinese-speaking arrivals, down over 50% year-on-year.

 

• The global economy is forecast to grow at its slowest pace in 16 years, heightening income uncertainty and driving tourists towards closer, safer destinations.

 

• Rising geopolitical tensions at the Thailand–Cambodia border, particularly during the low season, are affecting tourism in border provinces.

 

• Domestic economic fragility, including elevated household debt, continues to limit disposable income for travel  .

 

Confidence sank across all six regions surveyed. The Eastern and Western regions fared relatively better at 78 and 73, respectively, as they benefit from spillover tourism from Bangkok  .

 

Business sectors most affected include:

 

• Entertainment operators, whose confidence index collapsed to 60, down from 73 last year.

 

• Hotels, reporting only 48% average occupancy in Q2, down from 55% a year earlier, with revenue levels reaching just 45% of those seen in 2019  .

 

Overall, 94% of tourism businesses remain operational, down from 97% in Q1, highlighting the growing attrition risk in the sector  .

 

The TCT now expects just 33.3 million foreign arrivals in 2025, down from 2024’s tally, generating approximately ฿1.75 trillion in tourism revenue, a disappointing outcome for such a vital economic driver  .

 

Moreover, TCT President Chai Arunanondchai warns the confidence index could drop further to 65 in the third quarter. In response, the council has called on the Tourism Authority of Thailand to initiate national subsidies for bus operators in a bid to stimulate domestic movement and support revenue flow  .

 

This stark picture contrasts with more positive reports in other sources. For example, in early 2025, Phuket’s tourism revenue alone is said to exceed 180 billion baht, buoyed by strong performance in the broader southern region and projections of 2.23 trillion baht in tourism earnings for the year  .

 

Yet despite upbeat figures from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), the downward trend in confidence metrics underpins deepening unease over fundamentals including safety, consumer sentiment and geopolitical risk.

 

 

  Adapted by Asean Now from PhuketNews 2025-07-27

 

 

 

 

And that survey was taken until June 10 before the war games started.

Let's hope the lower tourism reduces prices and lowers the value of the Baht. 

28 minutes ago, thesetat said:

Let's hope the lower tourism reduces prices and lowers the value of the Baht. 

The effect on the Baht is minimal so far. EUR/THB not even back to monthly high. And the rise began a week before canon fire.

 

 

27 minutes ago, thesetat said:

Let's hope the lower tourism reduces prices and lowers the value of the Baht. 

Seems the overvalued baht only adversely affects the lower tiered /service sectors tourism : bars, lower end hotels, boats .The wealthy elites benefit and the big 5 star hotels cater to those who don't care so much about exchange rates. What would it take to devalue the baht with all the power players in control and benefiting,,?

37 minutes ago, thesetat said:

Let's hope the lower tourism reduces prices and lowers the value of the Baht. 

 

Thank you for making me laugh today. Reduces prices. You kidder you.