According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russia set this date due to the enormous economic costs of the war, which currently amount to 42% of the country’s budget and lead to stagnation in key sectors such as metallurgy and mineral extraction.

 

Russian leadership understands that if the war continues at this length and scale, it will lose the chance to compete with major powers like the US and China.

As a result, Russia risks becoming merely a regional power with limited influence.

 

Currently, the majority of Russia’s budget is spent on the war, while socio-economic problems, including labour shortages and demographic challenges, deepen the crisis.

Another factor is dependence on oil prices. At $50 per barrel, their Stabilization Fund, which finances the war, could last 18 months; at $30 per barrel, it would only last until the end of the year. Because of this, Russia may be forced to seek a pause or compromise to lift sanctions and stabilize the economy.

 

Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate explains why Russia aims to end war in 2026

 

 

When banks are running interest rates of 25% on loans, and paying 21% on deposits, that's a pretty good indicator of a tanking economy.

Putin ..........Tell me how is the state of the economy in one word.............Good

 

Ok a bit more detail tell me in two words...........................Not good.