Sub-prime Meltdown Hits Thailand With Force

[Martin]

'xbusman' said, in post #25:

"...lets all relearn one of the few hard and fast rules of investing."

By and large, I think, there are a lot of people learning it for the first time.

It is probably only those who saw the after-effects of 1929 who really, really learnt it.

They spent their lives over the next 60 to 70 years making sure that the ridiculous disregard of risk that was running riot just before the 1929 crash didn't happen again in their lifetimes. And then they were culled by the Grim Reaper.

There have been voices in the past couple of years speaking out and warning, but they got no hearing.

Incidentally, there is a statistician-scholar (called, I think, Krondatieff) who has detected that there is an underlying cycle in the affairs of mankind that has just this 75-85 year period of frquency.

[lannarebirth]

'xbusman' said, in post #25:

"...lets all relearn one of the few hard and fast rules of investing."

By and large, I think, there are a lot of people learning it for the first time.

It is probably only those who saw the after-effects of 1929 who really, really learnt it.

They spent their lives over the next 60 to 70 years making sure that the ridiculous disregard of risk that was running riot just before the 1929 crash didn't happen again in their lifetimes. And then they were culled by the Grim Reaper.

There have been voices in the past couple of years speaking out and warning, but they got no hearing.

Incidentally, there is a statistician-scholar (called, I think, Krondatieff) who has detected that there is an underlying cycle in the affairs of mankind that has just this 75-85 year period of frquency.

If ever I become rich like Dr. Naam, I'm thinking of opening a home for destitute K-Wavers.

[Carmine6]

ALL European stock markets opened in RED, except London which opens later, but it's too early to say how the day/week will end.

LaoPo

presently i see all green and two red ones:

http://de.finance.yahoo.com/m2

Correct; I just mentioned red when the markets opened.

London is in the green as well now after opening.

Curious what the US markets will do today but:

"Intervention Fails to Calm Markets"

and Bernanke is under a lot of pressure to cut the rates...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

Just watch, if the Fed steps in and somewhat saves the market, but it then ballons back up again and crashes, they'll blame it on the Fed. Right now people are blaming the Fed for the current mess because it lowered the rate to 1% after 9/11 and only recently moved it up. Sure they put the gun on the table, but if people pick it up and shoot themselves (and others) in the foot 6 years later, it's not really the Fed's fault.

By the way, short term rates were below the Fed target for the last 4 days, so it's been called a stealth rate cut. But there's argument that there were some technical reasons why the rate dropped so much. The Fed moves at a glacial pace so I doubt they'll make a short term decrease then bump it back up. They'll only cut if they want to keep it there for a while or reduce it further. I don't think they want to do that for the long term.

But if they let it float around at slightly below target for a while that might get the job done. Even if they're not intentionally doing that, but the market thinks they are, it might be enough. Lots of emotion and irrational behavior lately.

[Naam]

If ever I become rich like Dr. Naam, I'm thinking of opening a home for destitute K-Wavers.

Lannarebirth, growing up as a poor boy in post-war Germany, joining for long years the armed forces because they paid for my studies, working hard in the desert, the jungle and the african bush sets certain standards. i have never considered myself being rich until.... september 22nd, 2006 when i joined TV-Forum.

[Mid]

Thai econ team closely monitors US sub-prime

Fri, August 17, 2007 : Last updated 17:57 hours

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras said after the meeting with Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on Friday that the premier has told the Thai economic team to closely monitor the US sub-prime lending fiasco.

Kosit Panpiemras

Attending the 2-hour meeting with the prime minister were Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn and Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase.

Kosit said that the prime minister was updated on economic issues including the continued falls in the Thai exchange following fears on sub-prime problems in the US. Surayud was informed that at this time, there is no reason or factor that shows direct impact on the Thai economy. The prime minister instructed the team to closely monitor the development.

"Nobody knows for sure the magnitude of fund re-allocations. As such, we can't say for how long this re-allocation from global stock markets would stay," Kosit said.

- The Nation

[Martin]

It seems that the title of this thread is a bit abbreviated.

"Knock-on Effects of Western Sub-prime Meltdown Hit Thailand With Relatively-little Force" would be nearer the mark.

[highdiver]

menwhile...

SET Index 758.42 +7.73 23,553.80

Mrs. Tarisa said the central bank would also keep a close watch on the sub-prime lending crisis in the US because it was uncertain how the problem would drag on, or escalate.

Although the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis would ignite a liquidity crunch in many major countries' financial sectors, she said, Thailand had not experienced the problem.

So, the central bank saw neither need to inject money into the financial system nor issue any special measures to oversee the problem because it had an only indirect effect on Thailand.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=31105

I find it amusing that after all the lectures we got from our "dooms day brigade" about thailand in a crisis....

it seems that USA, Europe, Ausralia, Japan central banks are injecting billions every day to avoid liquidiy and credit crisis while Thailand at this moment is not...

[Naam]

it seems that USA, Europe, Ausralia, Japan central banks are injecting billions every day to avoid liquidiy and credit crisis while Thailand at this moment is not...

quite obviously no liquidity crisis in Thailand. so why should the BOT inject cash?

[highdiver]

it seems that USA, Europe, Ausralia, Japan central banks are injecting billions every day to avoid liquidiy and credit crisis while Thailand at this moment is not...

quite obviously no liquidity crisis in Thailand. so why should the BOT inject cash?

I know... but its fun saying it over and over again to all those that have been warning us about thailands crisis.

[malcolminthemiddle]

Can any one point me to a URL where I can find a graph showing the historical performance of the SET and other world stock exchanges? Thanks in advance.

I have been googling for the past 20 mins or so but couldn't find what I was searching for.

[lannarebirth]

Can any one point me to a URL where I can find a graph showing the historical performance of the SET and other world stock exchanges? Thanks in advance.

I have been googling for the past 20 mins or so but couldn't find what I was searching for.

There's this site, which I believe is run by TV member "goatfarmer"

http://www.asiachart.com/

Or you could try stockcharts.com, but it's got some bad ticks in the SET chart from many years ago.

[Hampstead]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Edited August 17, 2007 by Hampstead

[LaoPo]

Can any one point me to a URL where I can find a graph showing the historical performance of the SET and other world stock exchanges? Thanks in advance.

I have been googling for the past 20 mins or so but couldn't find what I was searching for.

There's this site, which I believe is run by TV member "goatfarmer"

http://www.asiachart.com/

Or you could try stockcharts.com, but it's got some bad ticks in the SET chart from many years ago.

Interesting! Thanks for the link Lannarebirth!

1990-2007:

The remark says: "The long term trend is falling. The index is bottoming. Resistance is at around 1,000."

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Correct.

Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75%, Cites `Downside' Risks

By Brendan Murray

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, in an unscheduled meeting, cut the discount rate to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent, noting market conditions have deteriorated since it last met Aug. 7.

``Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward, '' the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. ``The downside risks have increased appreciably.''

The FOMC left the overnight federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.

Last Updated: August 17, 2007 08:16 EDT

From: Bloomberg

edit:

The European stock markets were very nervous but JUMPED UP after the news of the rate-cut by the FED; some now up more than +2%

LaoPo

Edited August 17, 2007 by LaoPo

[malcolminthemiddle]

Can any one point me to a URL where I can find a graph showing the historical performance of the SET and other world stock exchanges? Thanks in advance.

I have been googling for the past 20 mins or so but couldn't find what I was searching for.

There's this site, which I believe is run by TV member "goatfarmer"

http://www.asiachart.com/

Or you could try stockcharts.com, but it's got some bad ticks in the SET chart from many years ago.

Interesting! Thanks for the link Lannarebirth!

1990-2007:

The remark says: "The long term trend is falling. The index is bottoming. Resistance is at around 1,000."

LaoPo

Yes thanks Lannarebirth. Any one have a link to an up to date graph showing the recent/ongoing turmoil?

[VegasVic]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

[lannarebirth]

Can any one point me to a URL where I can find a graph showing the historical performance of the SET and other world stock exchanges? Thanks in advance.

I have been googling for the past 20 mins or so but couldn't find what I was searching for.

There's this site, which I believe is run by TV member "goatfarmer"

http://www.asiachart.com/

Or you could try stockcharts.com, but it's got some bad ticks in the SET chart from many years ago.

Interesting! Thanks for the link Lannarebirth!

1990-2007:

The remark says: "The long term trend is falling. The index is bottoming. Resistance is at around 1,000."

LaoPo

Yes thanks Lannarebirth. Any one have a link to an up to date graph showing the recent/ongoing turmoil?

Weekly chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SET...&a=63054048

Daily chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SET...&a=48808252

[lannarebirth]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

What do you mean "short covering". If it were short covering the market would be going up, not down. It's been down since the gap up.

BTW, I guess this Fed announcement took place yesterday and the wire services didn't get hold of it till this morning. That would explain the much earlier reversal in currencies.

Edited August 17, 2007 by lannarebirth

[VegasVic]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

What do you mean "short covering". If it were short covering the market would be going up, not down. It's been down since the gap up.

BTW, I guess this Fed announcement took place yesterday and the wire services didn't get hold of it till this morning. That would explain the much earlier reversal in currencies.

The reason the DOW gapped up over 200 points at the open was because the shorts were covering their options positions that are expiring today. Over 1 1/2 hours into the trading day and the DOW is now up 141 points so there are a few traders selling into the strength that the short covering created. I,m not quite sure what you are getting at with your sentence about a delay in the wire services and a reversal in currencies, but I am certain it makes sense to you

[britmaveric]

As I said this is a world economy - if one market falls, the rest go down with it. Everything is inter-connected.

[lannarebirth]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

What do you mean "short covering". If it were short covering the market would be going up, not down. It's been down since the gap up.

BTW, I guess this Fed announcement took place yesterday and the wire services didn't get hold of it till this morning. That would explain the much earlier reversal in currencies.

The reason the DOW gapped up over 200 points at the open was because the shorts were covering their options positions that are expiring today. Over 1 1/2 hours into the trading day and the DOW is now up 141 points so there are a few traders selling into the strength that the short covering created. I,m not quite sure what you are getting at with your sentence about a delay in the wire services and a reversal in currencies, but I am certain it makes sense to you

I guess you don't know when the options market opens or know most people can't short options. This was a futures move to bail out options writers. Max pain is a little higher than the highs seen thusfar so it might turn back up.

[lannarebirth]

As I said this is a world economy - if one market falls, the rest go down with it. Everything is inter-connected.

That's true, and more importantly, everything is leveraged.

[VegasVic]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

What do you mean "short covering". If it were short covering the market would be going up, not down. It's been down since the gap up.

BTW, I guess this Fed announcement took place yesterday and the wire services didn't get hold of it till this morning. That would explain the much earlier reversal in currencies.

The reason the DOW gapped up over 200 points at the open was because the shorts were covering their options positions that are expiring today. Over 1 1/2 hours into the trading day and the DOW is now up 141 points so there are a few traders selling into the strength that the short covering created. I,m not quite sure what you are getting at with your sentence about a delay in the wire services and a reversal in currencies, but I am certain it makes sense to you

I guess you don't know when the options market opens or know most people can't short options. This was a futures move to bail out options writers. Max pain is a little higher than the highs seen thusfar so it might turn back up.

In re-reading my post I can see the confusion and it is my fault. I posted "covering their options positions" and what my intent was is that the shorts were panicing to cover their short positions in the market at the open, and that a good deal of this panic by the shorts at the open was due to options expiration today. Options expiration day is always a volitile day and today will be no different. Had the FED not made its announcement and move in the discount rate, then we would likely be seeing a down day currently instead of the DOW up 165 poionts, and it is still entirely possible that the DOW closes down for the day although I wouldn't bet on it!

[thwock]

when times are good with easy money around asian markets are strong ,but when sentiment changes they draw in their horns from speculative markets . theres no bottom there ....its all sell sell sell, hedge funds wont be able to get funds for buying and asset stripping ...shame

[Hampstead]

the us fed has just reduced the discount window rate's by 50 points, this is the start of the fed reacting to quell the credit markets, and there is room for the fed to move further down

you saw a late rally on the us markets yesterday, and the markets in the us will be reacting positivley to this news today by the fed

the discount window cut is designed to assure banks of funding availability

the fed chairman has timed this cut perfectly, without spooking the market

ben bernanke is old school baby

this is the signal for the bottoming out of the craziness

Your post is spot on except for the last line. The FED is basically saying that they will be there to add liquidity to the system from time to time, and this is very important and quite a substantial move by the FOMC. This verbage and the cut in the FED discount rate is only a stop gap measure for now and a lowering of the FED funds rate in September will likely be the main item on the agenda for the FOMC. This move saves some of the major lenders in the U.S. like Countrywide and Washington Mutual for now but the underlying issues still exist. The reason that I don't think that this is a bottoming out of the craziness is that while the DOW is up a couple hundred points here this morning in the first hour of trading, most of this is short covering in reaction to the FED's move because today is options expiration Friday. I think that what happens next week will be far more indicative as to where we are heading near term, and I don't think that the market will get into a comfort zone until the FED actually does cut the FED funds rate by 50-75 basis points. Whlie this current liquidity crisis was largely caused by the highly leveraged hedge funds (I have been warning about this for some time) , the FED still needs to lower the funds rate and ensure that loans will be available to qualified borrowers at a reasonable rate so we can eat through the glut of homes in certain areas of the country.

thats a matter of one'own oppinion

the flushing down the toilet of most stocks, even cash rich stocks has started to bottom out, and will continue to show signs of bottoming out into next week due to this news.

the fed have been surgically reducing rates on the overnight repo rate, and now the window discount rate

its to give the markets some breathing space, for the next couple of weeks, the last resort is the bank to bank rate to be reduced

this the signal to the market that the fed is reacting to calm the situation down, and not allow to much of the markets craziness to reflect the overall consumer

and in turn the signal will be the start of stabilising feers.

as rothchild famously said

"when there is blood on the street, thats the time to buy"

over the coming weeks you will see more and more stories of these huge debts being bought by various investment firms at discounts on these large leverage buyouts

its starting to happen and there is even some talk on some of these mortgage lenders like countrywide looking to become takeover targets by firms to inject more liquidity

a bottoming out takes a couple of weeks to calm the jitters down, nobody is saying its all going away, but when you see the craziness in the markets happen, thats the term called the flushing, when some people and fims panic and just sell everything, even the crown jewel stocks, which happened, then the fed will always react to calm the fear down.

so we will all have to see, what happens over the next couple of weeks, it certainly looks more promising than the last couple of weeks

Edited August 18, 2007 by Hampstead

[thaigene2]

Isn't there a flaw in the Nation editorial's suggestion that foreign investors are taking their money out of Thailand to pay debts back home? While this usually makes sense - and is the first thing that happens in a downturn e.g. vacation homes are sold to prop up the other bad debts in the principal asset base back home - it actually doesn't make sense here since foreign investors in the SET actually CAN'T get their money out for a full year. Isn't that still the case? Or did they lift that unpopular rule?

[Martin]

Quoting:

as rothchild famously said

"when there is blood on the street, thats the time to buy",

there have been no reports of anybody jumping out of any windows, and the dollar isn't 'mere paper' (yet?).

But some are reading into the Fed's words that there may be a failure of a major bank in the offing, and that there is a real danger of spiralling down through recession to a Great Depression. Also, it is just sinking in that the central banks are, effectively, merely printing the 'liquidity' that they injected in last week (i.e. inflating the amount of money in 'circulation'). That may turn out to have a similar effect to trying to quench a fire by pouring diesel oil on it.

Sorting the subprime mess is going to be a long drawn out process, because it is going to be quite a task to come to agreement about how the 'marked to model' funds should be 'marked to market'.

(Which is just a fancy way of saying it is hard to tell who is deepest in the doo-doo.)

In the longer term, look for real anger being directed towards bankers and pension fund trustees who bought CDOs with people's savings and for them trying to deflect the anger on to financial advisers and so on, till there is a wholesale loss of faith in all who represent the financial world.

How much stock prices will have to come down in order to get to price:earnings ratios that investors will risk is anybody's guess. They might have to come down to a quarter of what they are now in real terms, though inflation will 'massage' the figures.

There is going to be a lot of pain, because it is not just a matter of all the markets being linked. All of us have the purchasing power of our incomes and savings linked into our national market and into the international ones.

As usual, the worst pain will be borne by the poor. I am not going to feel sympathetic to the financier who can't upgrade his Lear jet, but I do feel for those who will be laid off by Lear.

[Naam]

Isn't there a flaw in the Nation editorial's suggestion that foreign investors are taking their money out of Thailand to pay debts back home? While this usually makes sense - and is the first thing that happens in a downturn e.g. vacation homes are sold to prop up the other bad debts in the principal asset base back home - it actually doesn't make sense here since foreign investors in the SET actually CAN'T get their money out for a full year. Isn't that still the case? Or did they lift that unpopular rule?

the flaw is using the diction "taking their money out of Thailand". fact is that less liquididity = less buying thai shares. but for buying SET listed shares money does not necessarily flow into Thailand. most of the common shares are available as ADRs or GDRs.

[midas]

But some are reading into the Fed's words that there may be a failure of a major bank in the offing, and that there is a real danger of spiralling down through recession to a Great Depression. Also, it is just sinking in that the central banks are, effectively, merely printing the 'liquidity' that they injected in last week (i.e. inflating the amount of money in 'circulation'). That may turn out to have a similar effect to trying to quench a fire by pouring diesel oil on it.

Martin I would like to know more about this. Where did you read this

or where did you hear about this ?

[VegasVic]

But some are reading into the Fed's words that there may be a failure of a major bank in the offing, and that there is a real danger of spiralling down through recession to a Great Depression. Also, it is just sinking in that the central banks are, effectively, merely printing the 'liquidity' that they injected in last week (i.e. inflating the amount of money in 'circulation'). That may turn out to have a similar effect to trying to quench a fire by pouring diesel oil on it.

Martin I would like to know more about this. Where did you read this

or where did you hear about this ?

I would be curious to know also. This sounds more like a rant off the daily kos blog or a pitch by by a gold trader trying to exit his position and convince you to buy it. With the action that the FED took yesterday I would think that even the chance of a recession is very unlikely now. Unemployment is still low, as is inflation and Q2 corporate profits were still very impressive. Martin are you just posting fear mongering garbage or do you really know of a major bank that could be going under, if it is the later please inform all of us as to what bank it is.