Global Correction

[lannarebirth]

I don't think a global bust is coming, nor do I believe this fed intervention to bail out their member banks options desks is going to put a floor under this market for very long. It might though, and it would be instructive for you to look at the events of Oct 15, 1998 to confirm that.

the yen carry trade is unwinding (nikkei down 850 points last night)........have you noticed gold ands silver and oil climbs as the dollar weakens against all major currencies? right.......nothing to see here, all is well.....NOT

Markets will fluctuate.

The stock market....known as the Great Capitalist Con Game....goes up and down at the whim of cetain very wealthy individuals and institutions. Now that they have had 8 years of the bought-and-paid for flunkies (headed by their imbecilic patsy, that floppy-eared fool from Texas, George Bush) they are rolling up their profits and consolidating their gains. As always their profits will be at the expense of the middle-class and the workers.

Hang on boys, it's going to be a hard ride, and as you will haveto pay the bill as always.

Not sure if that's a buy or sell recommendation, but I think you'll find US markets (big caps at least) are in about the same place they were 8 years ago., give or take.

[LaoPo]

I'm afraid some members are still relaxed about the real situation, worldwide, with the US being the engine for more trouble at full speed.

ALL bourses in Europe are in DEEP FULL RED after Asia went deep into red as well, with the SET closing at 807.58 -2.71%.

We'll see what the NY-markets will do today but the signs are not good with 'Thanksgiving' tomorrow when the stock markets in the US are closed and minimal trading on Friday.

Oil is reaching $ 100/barrel now; the Greenback on it's way to $ 1,50/Euro.

Naam: Treasuries a mystery ?

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries surged, sending 10- year yields below 4 percent for the first time since 2005, as a decline in Asian stocks spurred demand for the relative safety of government debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[samran]

^Yes, those are good points. I agree with the parallels between the US and Aussie economies. And, to the point, the robustness and overall mass of the US economic engine can't be denied. Overall I agree the low dollar will probably help, even though being painful for those of us who still earn dollars.

One worrying point is the growing trend among some oil producing companies to denominate in Euros rather than dollars.

there is only one producer (Iran) and two countries (Japan and China) which pay €UR for crude. otherwise it's USD and business as usual.

Chavez has been threatening, and lobbying other producers....

I note that the Venuzeluans are taking strategic shareholdings in oil fields around this neck of the woods.

[Naam]

Naam: Treasuries a mystery ?

LaoPo

yes, a mystery to me why they surged that much inspite of the extremely weak dollar and sudden strong doubts whether the FED will cut dec 11th. did you read the minutes of the last FOMC meeting?

[LaoPo]

^Yes, those are good points. I agree with the parallels between the US and Aussie economies. And, to the point, the robustness and overall mass of the US economic engine can't be denied. Overall I agree the low dollar will probably help, even though being painful for those of us who still earn dollars.

One worrying point is the growing trend among some oil producing companies to denominate in Euros rather than dollars.

there is only one producer (Iran) and two countries (Japan and China) which pay €UR for crude. otherwise it's USD and business as usual.

Chavez has been threatening, and lobbying other producers....

I note that the Venuzeluans are taking strategic shareholdings in oil fields around this neck of the woods.

..Samran.....some people, like myself, do not speak or understand almost forgotten rare native dialects only spoken by cavemen from Ozzie woods and deserts.....

please explain

LaoPo

[chinthee]

^Maybe he means Vietnam & Indonesia?

[samran]

^Maybe he means Vietnam & Indonesia?

maybe I do

[Naam]

Chavez has been threatening, and lobbying other producers....

Huguito Chávez el Bolivariano might be able to threaten some clowns in the White House when talking about el diablo Jorge pequeño de Tejas and crosses himself

Iran does not require any lobbying as the country was the frontrunner in this respect (€UR instead of USD for crude).

Edited November 21, 2007 by Naam

[LaoPo]

Naam: Treasuries a mystery ?

LaoPo

yes, a mystery to me why they surged that much inspite of the extremely weak dollar and sudden strong doubts whether the FED will cut dec 11th. did you read the minutes of the last FOMC meeting?

No, I did not; but if I did I doubt very much if the written words would have any value, longer than the next fall of any currency or stock market....

If the bad news continues maybe the FED has to cut BEFORE dec. 11th....for what it's worth...

LaoPo

[chinthee]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

AP

Crude Oil Prices Break $99

Wednesday November 21, 8:39 am ET

By Pablo Gorondi, Associated Press Writer

Crude Oil Prices Break $99 on Winter Supply Concern

Almost $100

[Naam]

Naam: Treasuries a mystery ?

LaoPo

yes, a mystery to me why they surged that much inspite of the extremely weak dollar and sudden strong doubts whether the FED will cut dec 11th. did you read the minutes of the last FOMC meeting?

No, I did not; but if I did I doubt very much if the written words would have any value, longer than the next fall of any currency or stock market....

If the bad news continues maybe the FED has to cut BEFORE dec. 11th....for what it's worth...

LaoPo

the FED is between a rock and a hard place LaoPo. 2008 is election year and traditionally any moves in interest rates is avoided.

for what it's worth, the futures traded at Chicago BOT indicate a 86 percent chance of a 0.25% rate cut on dec. 11th and a 67% chance for a further cut jan. 30th.

[LaoPo]

^Maybe he means Vietnam & Indonesia?

maybe I do

The old saying: never too old to learn is still valid; thanks.

Apart from that: every single country and/or Oil Company is rolling over each other in order to try and secure -foreign- oil fields.

So, nothing new here; even Vietnam is trying to buy themselves shares abroad but front runners include Ozzie companies

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

well, well, i go a way for a few days, and the global markets continung reeling......and the delicious part is that it is far from over

if you were short the DOW, NASDAQ, and asain markets as well as long yen, then you woud have made money, otherwise you just had an experience similar to finding out that cute bar girl actually was born a man...

anyway, here is my gift to you.......

sell on RALLIES, and stay out of DOW until 12,000 at minimum, next supprt after that is 9700 and then next support is around 7200 area..........please palce your tray tables in the upright and ocked position and assume the crash landing position.....

additionall,y the credit markets continue to deteriorate like bangkok condo construction.......

[lannarebirth]

Shortlived bounce at support. If US markets close below yesterdays low, I expect Aug 16th lows will fall soon.

Not Good:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p...mp;a=121846970#

[fletchsmile]

Well 3 months on from the "global crisis" prediction from mid-Aug:

- Asian markets still up strongly

- Thailand's SETup comfortably

- World index overall still up

- Dow around similar levels

So anyone who has been short global equity markets throughout this period is still likely to be losing money.

While US might head towards a recession, and US markets and USD continue to suffer, on the USD currency side, so many people are talking about bad news now, from fashion models to old ladies with purple rinses, that perhaps it's getting time to even reconsider the currency.

To be honest, I'm not too worried about the US markets/USD, anyway, as they haven't really been of interest for 5 years or so. Decoupling of markets looks more and more as though it's accelerating, and the real stories continue to be mainly Asia. Viewing markets "globally" and making widespread "global predictions", seems to make less and less sense, and anyone having spotted that and the Asian stories will be doing well.

All in all global correction/crisis, still looks a poor call, particularly made at the bottom of the dips in August. "US correction and recession" "sometime" maybe. Not global, and it didn't happen 3 months back until now as predicted.

I'm quite happy continuing to have sat tight, for the last few months, with a large focus on Asia. Some small healthy corrections in the last couple of weeks since roaring away soon after the global bust prediction above, also give comfort, that that the predicted crash won't be global even if/when it comes one day.

Edited November 22, 2007 by fletchthai68

[bingobongo]

ah fletch we see what we want to see dont we?

todays 181 point bounce on the DOW (nov 23) was merely short covering in a short week.....the downtrend is still in tact

as for shanghai? the peak was 6124 and now is is 5032, again the downtrend is stil in tact...so as far as asian markets up "stongly" fletch, you are just being silly

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

on Dec 11 bubbles bernkae may cut the FED FUND rate again, buy gold and silver on dips, and short the Chinese markets via FXP (PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)

more pain is coming in 2008, sell on rallies and keep your powder dry

since this is the Thai forum, forget the SET, it will soon b e cirlcling the bowl

[fletchsmile]

ah fletch we see what we want to see dont we?

todays 181 point bounce on the DOW (nov 23) was merely short covering in a short week.....the downtrend is still in tact

as for shanghai? the peak was 6124 and now is is 5032, again the downtrend is stil in tact...so as far as asian markets up "stongly" fletch, you are just being silly

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

on Dec 11 bubbles bernkae may cut the FED FUND rate again, buy gold and silver on dips, and short the Chinese markets via FXP (PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)

more pain is coming in 2008, sell on rallies and keep your powder dry

since this is the Thai forum, forget the SET, it will soon b e cirlcling the bowl

Indeed you do see what you want to see. All the markets I quoted are with reference to the date on which you called a global bust. i.e since you called a global bust, here's what happened

- Asian markets are generally up significantly from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Thailand's SETup comfortably from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- World index overall still up from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Dow around similar levels from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

Check out the chart in more detail. I circled in red, where all these markets were when you made your prediction. I circled in Green where they are now. i.e over 3 months on, and long positions are generally up and nicely so.

To quote dips in the last few days, or couple of weeks, is being very selective on your part sir. Quoting the Shanghai in that way is a little naughty too. It rose to the peak after you made your prediction. It is still probably above levels in mid-August when you made your prediction.

The fact remains, most markets are up, since you called them to go down. If they come down a little from the heady heights they rose to after your predictions, you can hardly claim to have been right.

[lordofdelusion]

ah fletch we see what we want to see dont we?

todays 181 point bounce on the DOW (nov 23) was merely short covering in a short week.....the downtrend is still in tact

as for shanghai? the peak was 6124 and now is is 5032, again the downtrend is stil in tact...so as far as asian markets up "stongly" fletch, you are just being silly

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

on Dec 11 bubbles bernkae may cut the FED FUND rate again, buy gold and silver on dips, and short the Chinese markets via FXP (PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)

more pain is coming in 2008, sell on rallies and keep your powder dry

since this is the Thai forum, forget the SET, it will soon b e cirlcling the bowl

I agree with you that 2008 will be a tough year. The treasury secretary in the US said as much last week. Many calls for a dramatic rate cut to avoid an all out recession as well. And I agree about the SET. From what I'm hearing now, emerging markets are a sell. What I don't know, and will never understand, is the driver of exchange rates. I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

[Naam]

I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

your guess is as good as mine Mylord. however i am convinced that the THB/USD rate will be within the range of 25-50

[lordofdelusion]

I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

your guess is as good as mine Mylord. however i am convinced that the THB/USD rate will be within the range of 25-50

That's the same kind of accuracy that people pay financial managers a lot of money for!! Checks in the mail Doc. (US funds of course)

[LaoPo]

ah fletch we see what we want to see dont we?

todays 181 point bounce on the DOW (nov 23) was merely short covering in a short week.....the downtrend is still in tact

as for shanghai? the peak was 6124 and now is is 5032, again the downtrend is stil in tact...so as far as asian markets up "stongly" fletch, you are just being silly

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

on Dec 11 bubbles bernkae may cut the FED FUND rate again, buy gold and silver on dips, and short the Chinese markets via FXP (PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)

more pain is coming in 2008, sell on rallies and keep your powder dry

since this is the Thai forum, forget the SET, it will soon b e cirlcling the bowl

Indeed you do see what you want to see. All the markets I quoted are with reference to the date on which you called a global bust. i.e since you called a global bust, here's what happened

- Asian markets are generally up significantly from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Thailand's SETup comfortably from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- World index overall still up from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Dow around similar levels from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

Check out the chart in more detail. I circled in red, where all these markets were when you made your prediction. I circled in Green where they are now. i.e over 3 months on, and long positions are generally up and nicely so.

To quote dips in the last few days, or couple of weeks, is being very selective on your part sir. Quoting the Shanghai in that way is a little naughty too. It rose to the peak after you made your prediction. It is still probably above levels in mid-August when you made your prediction.

The fact remains, most markets are up, since you called them to go down. If they come down a little from the heady heights they rose to after your predictions, you can hardly claim to have been right.

You can't compare 2 heavyweights like the FTSE allworld & DOW JONES IA with the three other -Asian- charts. That's plain silly. ALL Asian stocks were up in the same period since August 16 (and on the way down now).

Both you and Bingo are taking this topic way too personal and I suggest we look at a broader picture instead of calling a YES-NO-YES-NO Global Correction.

Bingo said YES; you said NO.

It's more complex than YES-or-NO but if big shots like Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and now Li-ka-Shing from HK are warning the financial world......than....who am I ?

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

ah fletch we see what we want to see dont we?

todays 181 point bounce on the DOW (nov 23) was merely short covering in a short week.....the downtrend is still in tact

as for shanghai? the peak was 6124 and now is is 5032, again the downtrend is stil in tact...so as far as asian markets up "stongly" fletch, you are just being silly

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

on Dec 11 bubbles bernkae may cut the FED FUND rate again, buy gold and silver on dips, and short the Chinese markets via FXP (PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)

more pain is coming in 2008, sell on rallies and keep your powder dry

since this is the Thai forum, forget the SET, it will soon b e cirlcling the bowl

Indeed you do see what you want to see. All the markets I quoted are with reference to the date on which you called a global bust. i.e since you called a global bust, here's what happened

- Asian markets are generally up significantly from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Thailand's SETup comfortably from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- World index overall still up from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

- Dow around similar levels from mid August when Bingo called a downturn

Check out the chart in more detail. I circled in red, where all these markets were when you made your prediction. I circled in Green where they are now. i.e over 3 months on, and long positions are generally up and nicely so.

To quote dips in the last few days, or couple of weeks, is being very selective on your part sir. Quoting the Shanghai in that way is a little naughty too. It rose to the peak after you made your prediction. It is still probably above levels in mid-August when you made your prediction.

The fact remains, most markets are up, since you called them to go down. If they come down a little from the heady heights they rose to after your predictions, you can hardly claim to have been right.

You can't compare 2 heavyweights like the FTSE allworld & DOW JONES IA with the three other -Asian- charts. That's plain silly. ALL Asian stocks were up in the same period since August 16 (and on the way down now).

Both you and Bingo are taking this topic way too personal and I suggest we look at a broader picture instead of calling a YES-NO-YES-NO Global Correction.

Bingo said YES; you said NO.

It's more complex than YES-or-NO but if big shots like Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and now Li-ka-Shing from HK are warning the financial world......than....who am I ?

LaoPo

That's about right. It's a yes/no/yes/no market. Perfect for people like me, but hard on investors I imagine. I get the sense banks are trying to trade their way out of this mess they've created. using the volatility they also created

[Naam]

I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

your guess is as good as mine Mylord. however i am convinced that the THB/USD rate will be within the range of 25-50

That's the same kind of accuracy that people pay financial managers a lot of money for!! Checks in the mail Doc. (US funds of course)

and that is exactly the fact i am drawing your attention to Lord. i despise all kinds of forecasting and fortune telling as far as financials are concerned and that includes tea leaves, chicken entrails analyzed voodoo style, chart technique, horoscopes, etc.

of course i read a lot what "anals" of major banks are writing to win their daily bread. but for making decisions i rely on what my belly tells me. right now my belly agrees with my brain and both agree with the great greek philosopher who said "i know that i know nothing".

[Naam]

It's a yes/no/yes/no market. Perfect for people like me, but hard on investors I imagine.

why would you think it's hard for investors? there's always a way to make money no matter in what direction the markets go IF you are well diversified, have enough cash and have not taken huge lopsided leverage risks.

[lannarebirth]

It's a yes/no/yes/no market. Perfect for people like me, but hard on investors I imagine.

why would you think it's hard for investors? there's always a way to make money no matter in what direction the markets go IF you are well diversified, have enough cash and have not taken huge lopsided leverage risks.

I was thinking it might be more hard psychologically, as a lot of people seem to take "crisis" thinking onboard. Best ignored unless you're in things you shouldn't be in or payed to much to acquire it.

[LaoPo]

I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

your guess is as good as mine Mylord. however i am convinced that the THB/USD rate will be within the range of 25-50

That's the same kind of accuracy that people pay financial managers a lot of money for!! Checks in the mail Doc. (US funds of course)

and that is exactly the fact i am drawing your attention to Lord. i despise all kinds of forecasting and fortune telling as far as financials are concerned and that includes tea leaves, chicken entrails analyzed voodoo style, chart technique, horoscopes, etc.

of course i read a lot what "anals" of major banks are writing to win their daily bread. but for making decisions i rely on what my belly tells me. right now my belly agrees with my brain and both agree with the great greek philosopher who said "i know that i know nothing".

1. Financials: for normal people like myself it's extremely difficult to form an opinion about the (truth of) Financials these days, since the sub prime problems started. CEO's and CFO's can't be trusted anymore because of their enormous benefits. They'll do anything to please their shareholders (and their own wallets).

Prince Alwaleed*, the largest single shareholder in Citigroup, asked 'his' CEO Charles O. Prince III (what a coincidence, that name...) "Is this the end of the story? Did you think of everything?" after he was informed about the $6.4 Billion write off at Citigroup. Chuck prince answered: YES.

2 to 3 weeks later.... Citigroup had to confront their shareholders (and Mr. Alwaleed of course) with another $ 11 Billion writeoff -on top of the $ Billion-....

No need to tell that Mr. Cuck Prince was sacked (with a bag full of Dollars, some 95M I believe).

I just watched a documentary about the dramatic ENRON debacle and HOW their CEO/CFO's lied to the whole financial world; ALL -but one- analysts on Wall Street believed the ENRON stories...ALL OF THEM !

I have a little bit the same feeling now in the Financial world of today. We are -again- lied upon and big scale. The estimates (by the experts) are that the write offs because of the sub prime crisis are in the region of $ 400 Billion.

How come I don't believe that ? Of course I can't prove it, it's just the 'belly feeling' same like Mr. Naam

2. Belly: I have to eat now

* Read the interview with Prince Alwaleed: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/08/news/compa...sion=2007110818

LaoPo

Edited November 24, 2007 by LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

I would love to know what the Baht/ Dollar rate will be. If we have a global correction, what can I expect?

your guess is as good as mine Mylord. however i am convinced that the THB/USD rate will be within the range of 25-50

That's the same kind of accuracy that people pay financial managers a lot of money for!! Checks in the mail Doc. (US funds of course)

and that is exactly the fact i am drawing your attention to Lord. i despise all kinds of forecasting and fortune telling as far as financials are concerned and that includes tea leaves, chicken entrails analyzed voodoo style, chart technique, horoscopes, etc.

of course i read a lot what "anals" of major banks are writing to win their daily bread. but for making decisions i rely on what my belly tells me. right now my belly agrees with my brain and both agree with the great greek philosopher who said "i know that i know nothing".

1. Financials: for normal people like myself it's extremely difficult to form an opinion about the (truth of) Financials these days, since the sub prime problems started. CEO's and CFO's can't be trusted anymore because of their enormous benefits. They'll do anything to please their shareholders (and their own wallets).

Prince Alwaleed*, the largest single shareholder in Citigroup, asked 'his' CEO Charles O. Prince III (what a coincidence, that name...) "Is this the end of the story? Did you think of everything?" after he was informed about the $6.4 Billion write off at Citigroup. Chuck prince answered: YES.

2 to 3 weeks later.... Citigroup had to confront their shareholders (and Mr. Alwaleed of course) with another $ 11 Billion writeoff -on top of the $ Billion-....

No need to tell that Mr. Cuck Prince was sacked (with a bag full of Dollars, some 95M I believe).

I just watched a documentary about the dramatic ENRON debacle and HOW their CEO/CFO's lied to the whole financial world; ALL -but one- analysts on Wall Street believed the ENRON stories...ALL OF THEM !

I have a little bit the same feeling now in the Financial world of today. We are -again- lied upon and big scale. The estimates (by the experts) are that the write offs because of the sub prime crisis are in the region of $ 400 Billion.

How come I don't believe that ? Of course I can't prove it, it's just the 'belly feeling' same like Mr. Naam

2. Belly: I have to eat now

* Read the interview with Prince Alwaleed: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/08/news/compa...sion=2007110818

LaoPo

I'm of the opinion that most stock gains for the past 20 years or so have been om the back of government largesse. If the problem is as big as you claim the government will step in with bailouts for these fiduciary thugs, which is of course bullish. The currency be damned!

[Naam]

It's a yes/no/yes/no market. Perfect for people like me, but hard on investors I imagine.

why would you think it's hard for investors? there's always a way to make money no matter in what direction the markets go IF you are well diversified, have enough cash and have not taken huge lopsided leverage risks.

I was thinking it might be more hard psychologically, as a lot of people seem to take "crisis" thinking onboard. Best ignored unless you're in things you shouldn't be in or payed to much to acquire it.

ignoring a crisis is not necessarily the optimal way to deal with it and the same goes for overreacting. a lot depends also in what kind of asset class an investor is. my repeated mentioning that i am diversified is actually not correct as all my capital investment is in bonds and of course a high percentage of cash in various currencies.

i was aware of the subprime crisis (as were most others) with quite some delay and started in july (stopped end of october) reducing most of my positions and kicking some of them completely out. looking back it turned out that among those i sold completely a bunch is quoted higher than during the top in march/april whereas another bunch which i only partly reduced is even more hit hard and that goes too for a few bonds which i (timidly) started to increase again early november.

rationally and based on my knowledge and experience i made the right decisions but the market couldn't care less and sh*t happens

but whatever, the subprime crisis will accompany us for at least another year whereas the negative effects in the credit markets will last much longer. the bright side is that for several years to come not every obscure B+ rated corporation will be able to issue bonds which yield single digits. but that suits me quite well as i am able to increase my cash quota without losing income.

[fletchsmile]

You can't compare 2 heavyweights like the FTSE allworld & DOW JONES IA with the three other -Asian- charts. That's plain silly. ALL Asian stocks were up in the same period since August 16 (and on the way down now).

Both you and Bingo are taking this topic way too personal and I suggest we look at a broader picture instead of calling a YES-NO-YES-NO Global Correction.

Bingo said YES; you said NO.

It's more complex than YES-or-NO but if big shots like Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and now Li-ka-Shing from HK are warning the financial world......than....who am I ?

LaoPo

I guess you didn't read the earlier posts, or missed the points, if you're unsure why I used the indices I did:

1) Asian markets' decoupling from US markets is accelerating. Anyone who spotted that a while back, would be in a good position. Hence the need for an Asian reference. Surely you're not telling me it's enough to talk about the Dow index for a global recession? Or perhaps you are?

2) Thailand has lagged it's peers in South East Asia and Asia generally. Thought that would be of interest on a Thai forum. Political rather than economic factors have weighed have on Thailand for a year or so.

Hence the need for the 3 Asian charts. Thailand - where we live, has been driven by political events for a year or so. SE Asia as Thailand peers. Asia to illustrate de-coupling from US. Hope that make sense now

3) Using a world a world index, as well as the Dow quoted. Well that just highlights most of the world is slightly up since the call for a bust. Dow as that was quoted as the argument for a global bust. Dow might be heavyweight, but more and more, like its currency it is becoming the exception rather than the rule.

Think you're reading too much into things if you think it's personal.

If you're talking about the bigger picture? Most of the talk above is about US and US markets. Take a quick check thru the posts. Most talk of FED, US, USD, Dow, US Sub prime, US credit spreads etc

Hence someone needs to bring in the Asian picture, decoupling issues, Thailand political situation etc. Summary

1) Thailand picture driven more by politcs for the last year or so

2) Asia decoupling

3) US perhaps heading to recession

If we're talking silly, I'd say the thinking that there are are a set of global factors driving all markets in the same way, and that these same set of factors will cause a global bust is silly. Yet that's what many people above keep implying. They imply US is faltering, rest of world will follow. There is a little hope in your last sentence, though, if you at least recognise it's complex, rather than saying all markets have the same fate of a global bust awaiting.

So far the idea of a bust is highlighly questionable, as the passage of 3 months has been showing. The idea of it being global, to use your words, is just silly..

Edited November 24, 2007 by fletchthai68

[lannarebirth]

You can't compare 2 heavyweights like the FTSE allworld & DOW JONES IA with the three other -Asian- charts. That's plain silly. ALL Asian stocks were up in the same period since August 16 (and on the way down now).

Both you and Bingo are taking this topic way too personal and I suggest we look at a broader picture instead of calling a YES-NO-YES-NO Global Correction.

Bingo said YES; you said NO.

It's more complex than YES-or-NO but if big shots like Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and now Li-ka-Shing from HK are warning the financial world......than....who am I ?

LaoPo

I guess you didn't read the earlier posts, or missed the points, if you're unsure why I used the indices I did:

1) Asian markets' decoupling from US markets is accelerating. Anyone who spotted that a while back, would be in a good position. Hence the need for an Asian reference.

2) Thailand has lagged it's peers in South East Asia and Asia generally. Thought that would be of interest on a Thai forum. Thailand has lagged it's peers obviously because of political events.

Hence the need for the 3 Asian charts. Thailand - we live in been driven by political events for a year or so. SE Asia as Thailand peers. Asia to illustrate de-coupling. Hope that make sense now

3) Using a world a world index, as well as the Dow quoted. Well that just highlights most of the world is slightly up since the call for a bust. Dow as that was quoted as the argument for a global bust. Dow might be heavyweight, but more and more like its currency it is becoming the exception rather than the rule.

Think you're reading too much into things if you think it's personal. If you're talking about the bigger picture? Most of the talk above is about US and US markets. Take a quick check thru the posts. Most talk of FED, US, USD, Dow, US Sub prime etc

Hence someone needs to bring in the Asian picture, decoupling issues, Thailand political situation etc.

1) Thailand picture driven more by politcs for the last year or so

2) Asia decoupling

3) US perhaps heading to recession

If we're talking silly, I'd say the thinking that there are are a set of global factors driving all markets in the same way, and that these same set of factors will cause a global bust is silly. Yet that's what many people above keep implying. They imply US is faltering, rest of world will follow.

There is a little hope in your last sentence, though, if you at least recognise it's complex, rather than saying all markets have the same fate awaiting.

I disagree with your thinking on this topic. You think only American banks make bad loans? You think Thai banks don't make even more as a percentage of their loan portfolios? If liquidity is lost then all the chickens come home to roost, everywhere. Bad loans in Thailand and similar places have often been obscured by rising markets which effectively bailed out the banks from their risky behaviors. If the music stops Thailand isnt the "safe haven" I'd choose. I'm not suggesting anything bad is about to happen, in fact the SET is currently in a bullish trend. That doesn't mean it won't be pulled down by events outside its borders.