Global Correction

[fletchsmile]

....

And I am still looking for a pure Vietnam fund.

As you're based in Singapore, Lion Capital do one:

http://www.lioncapital.com.sg/

I looked at it last year when I was also trying to find Vietnam funds. I've no real idea on it's performance/quality tho'.

[Prakanong]

....

And I am still looking for a pure Vietnam fund.

As you're based in Singapore, Lion Capital do one:

http://www.lioncapital.com.sg/

I looked at it last year when I was also trying to find Vietnam funds. I've no real idea on it's performance/quality tho'.

Thanks - I will look into it more.

There is a workshop on funds this Saturday here in Singapore but I will be in Bangkok on business.

[Naam]

And I am still looking for a pure Vietnam fund.

there is one which i used to trade in/out for quite some time:

VNH... listed in the London Stock Exchange....

Regulatory Announcement

Company VietNam Holding Limited

TIDM VNH

Headline Admission to AIM

Released 08:01 15-Jun-06

Number 6114E

VietNam Holding Limited ("VHH" or the "Company")

Admission to trading on AIM

VietNam Holding Limited is pleased to announce that it has been admitted to trading on AIM, a market operated by the London Stock Exchange plc ("AIM"), and that its ordinary shares commenced trading today on AIM under the symbol “VNH”. The Company has raised gross proceeds of $112.5 million in a placing of 56,250,000 ordinary shares at US$2.00 per share. Grant Thornton Corporate Finance is the Company’s Nominated Adviser and LCF Edmond de Rothschild Securities Limited is the Company’s Broker.

About VietNam Holding Limited

VNH is a newly incorporated closed-end Cayman Islands registered, exempted company created to invest principally in securities of former state-owned enterprises ("SOEs") in Vietnam prior to, at or after such securities become listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange, including the initial privatization of the SOEs. The Company may also invest in the securities of private companies in Vietnam, whether Vietnamese or foreign owned, and the securities of foreign companies if a significant portion of their assets are held or operations conducted in Vietnam. The investment objective of the Company is to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of companies that have high growth potential at an attractive valuation.

The Investment Manager and the Investment Adviser

Vietnam Holding Asset Management Limited ("VNHAM"), a company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, has been appointed as the Company’s investment manager and is responsible for the day-to-day management of the Company’s investment portfolio in accordance with the Company’s investment policies, objectives and restrictions. VNHAM will establish offices in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and in Zurich.

VNHAM has appointed quondam viet nam partners ltd as its investment adviser to provide it with investment advice and additional administrative services. To further supplement the local and international expertise of the VNHAM, an advisory council comprising prominent figures in Vietnam has been formed by VNHAM.

Investment Policies and Restrictions

The Company will adhere to the following investment policies and restrictions:

§ Geographical focus: VNH intends to focus its investments on companies operating in Vietnam.

§ Sector focus: The Company intends to invest in a range of industry sectors including consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, services, power and energy (primarily oil and gas), telecommunications; mining, tourism, financial services, logistics and transportation, construction and construction materials. The Company will pay particular attention to sectors it expects will be most affected by the impending accession of Vietnam to the World Trade Organization ("WTO").

§ Type of investment: VNH intends to invest at least 70 per cent of its funds in former SOEs, up to 25 per cent. in private and foreign companies and no more than 20 per cent. in convertible securities. The Company may invest in equity securities or securities that have equity features, such as bonds that are convertible into equity.

§ Control of investments: Where VNH invests as a minority shareholder in an investee company, VNH will use commercially reasonable efforts to obtain for the Company suitable shareholder protection, for example by way of a shareholders’ agreement or board representation, where available and appropriate. VNH will not generally take or seek to take legal or management control of any investee company; it will not invest in companies known to be subject to export restrictions or anti-dumping measures or that are known to be under investigation for the same; it will not be a real estate investor or invest in infrastructure projects with long pay-back periods. VNH will aim to apply international standard corporate governance principles in its investments.

§ Realization of investments: VNH aims to realize its investments using the advice of VNHAM, who will be responsible for the monitoring of the investments.

§ Investment size: VNH will adhere to the general principle of diversification in respect of all its assets and will observe certain investment restrictions which include that the Company will not invest more than 10 per cent. of its net asset value at the time of investment in the shares of a single investee company and not more than 30 per cent. of its net asset value at the time of investment in any one sector.

Vietnam

Vietnam is a country with a population of over 83 million and a land area of approximately 330,000 square kilometers bordered by Cambodia, Laos and China. It has a young population with more than half under the age of 25 and a high literacy rate of 96 per cent. The country’s economy is growing rapidly, with 7.2 per cent. average GDP growth per annum over the past ten years, reaching 8.4 per cent. per annum growth in 2005 and projected by VNHAM to grow an average of 7.5 per cent. over the next three years.

SOEs have traditionally played a leading role in Vietnam’s economy. As at 31 December 2004, there were approximately 3,800 SOEs in Vietnam employing 2.2 million people in various industries. However, many SOEs suffer from inefficiency, outdated technology and equipment, uncompetitive products, poor management and an inability to respond to market forces in a timely manner. The government has instituted a reform programme for SOEs with the assistance of the World Bank and other foreign donors and the SOEs are being restructured, primarily through equitisation, which involves the issuance of new shares by the SOE or the sale by the Vietnamese government of an equity stake in the SOE to employees and other investors. The Vietnamese government has shown its commitment to equitisations, as demonstrated by recent legislation aimed at improving the transparency of the process and to better protect investors.

In June 2005, the Vietnamese government named 178 SOEs which should in due course be listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange. The Directors and VNHAM believe that there are attractive investment opportunities arising from the equitisation process that the Company is well placed to identify and to invest in. VNHAM expects the Vietnam Stock Exchange to undergo a significant expansion upon the listing of the former SOEs which could result in a substantial increase in liquidity.

The Directors and VNHAM believe that the economic drivers of the country and the reforms in the securities laws have created and should continue to create a favorable investment environment with investment opportunities in both listed companies and unlisted companies based in, or with substantial assets in, Vietnam. In particular, the Directors and VNHAM consider that there are likely to be attractive investment opportunities generated by the partial privatization of SOEs. These opportunities will be an area of primary focus for the Company. The Directors and VNHAM believe that as a result of their focused and structured approach and combined experience and established contacts in Vietnam, the Company is well placed to take advantage of the investment opportunities in Vietnam and to provide its shareholders with long-term returns.

In connection with the Company's AIM listing, Ms Min Hwa Hu Kupfer, the Chairperson of VNH, commented:

"This is a historically important period for Vietnam, as the country prepares its accession to the WTO. The announced wave of privatizations is expected to provide attractive investment opportunities for the global investment community. VNH is excited about being able to contribute to Vietnam’s economic growth through its strategic investments."

Enquiries:

Vietnam Holding Asset Management Limited

Juerg Vontobel Tel: +41 44 213 6514

Grant Thornton Corporate Finance (Nominated Adviser)

Philip Secrett Tel: +44 (20) 7383 5100

LCF Edmond de Rothschild Securities Limited (Broker)

Claire Heathfield Tel: +44 (20) 7845 5960

[lannarebirth]

Interesting weekend. A not so secret meeting between Bush and His "working Group On Markets or Plunge Protection team", A sticky rumor the Fed will make a "surprise" interest rate cut this morning. A run on the futures, with all trades being busted due to a "order imbalance" or something. I'm guessing that if the surprise rate cut doesn't happen, weakness will set in. Greatest Show On Earth.

[bingobongo]

lets focus on the SET as this is Thailand, the SET took a nice 20 point dump to close at 800 today, next support is around 780, and after that the next support isnt until 750 and 725, given the election has been a farce and credit markets are in turmoil, get ready........with bounces along the way.........but the trend is down

per my post above, the tape closed at 797.97 on the SET today, if this doesn't bounce at 780 and the support gets violated like an Issan girl new to the big city, then down to 750 we go.......the trend is still down

this wont help either........

Nikkei below 14,000 for first time in two years

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=125154

Edited January 15, 2008 by bingobongo

[Naam]

Interesting weekend. A not so secret meeting between Bush and His "working Group On Markets or Plunge Protection team", A sticky rumor the Fed will make a "surprise" interest rate cut this morning. A run on the futures, with all trades being busted due to a "order imbalance" or something. I'm guessing that if the surprise rate cut doesn't happen, weakness will set in. Greatest Show On Earth.

indeed! look at the futures. based on them a 1.75% rate cut within the next 12 months is expected. very interesting also to watch how european bourses reacted yesterday when another few bags of rice toppled over in a Wall Street warehouse

[bingobongo]

even if the Fed cuts tomorrow, the trend is still down as it will be a sign the Fed is very worried about what is about to happen........

[LivinLOS]

Interesting weekend. A not so secret meeting between Bush and His "working Group On Markets or Plunge Protection team", A sticky rumor the Fed will make a "surprise" interest rate cut this morning. A run on the futures, with all trades being busted due to a "order imbalance" or something. I'm guessing that if the surprise rate cut doesn't happen, weakness will set in. Greatest Show On Earth.

PPT out in force trying to keep those plates spinning..

Gold looking toppy after its run.. A bit of false futures pressure from those lads and it has a long way back to 200 DMA...

In the end tho they cant hold back the tide..

[bingobongo]

780 support on the SET got obliterated today at the open (764 as i write this), if 750 doesnt hold, then last support is 725, after that all bets are off

if the sham elections do not resolve themsleves quickly, and with the general global malaise this will easily see the SET thru 750

sell bounces as this will get quite nasty

[B-BOY]

It seems that news around 3pm ish over Puea Pandin's final decision joining and forming a government coalition with PPP helped SET bouncing back from a day low 757 to finally 773 points.

Let's hope that this short run will continue.......

[lannarebirth]

It would appear we're in a bear market. That said, I'll be covering in the next day or so.

[lannarebirth]

"When Santa Claus doth fail to call, the Bears will come to Broad and Wall"

Think this first 3-5 months of '08 is going to end up lower. Initial targets 1354 SPX, uglier ones too. Doesn't preclude a run higher here though. Later this year could be quite bullish.

Anyhow, got the downside I'd been looking for, so I'm out. Not sure I want to buy it yet though.

[Kf6vci]

You were right, no doubt. hope you benefitted from your foresight by selling futures etc.

[bingobongo]

tick tick tick......the global bust is coming

China said to find $118B in bank misconduct

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/19/news/inter...sion=2008011909

[merlion]

even if the Fed cuts tomorrow, the trend is still down as it will be a sign the Fed is very worried about what is about to happen........

Singapore's STI Index has drpopped more than 1000 points since last July! Amazing!

[LivinLOS]

Well looking at the markets.. OP wasnt far out so far...

How low will we go ??

[fletchsmile]

Well looking at the markets.. OP wasnt far out so far...

How low will we go ??

Mmm...5 months out on timing??? and you say "not far out"? That's also "IF" it continues and becomes a significant correction.

The OP prediction was made in August 2007, and we're now in 2008 - i.e wrong calendar year? Markets go up then down then up again. After a rise, predicting a fall in the future isn't exactly rocket science. The real key is predicting the timing if that's the way you manage your money. i.e if you trade you need timing, compared to long term which is vfm and quality investments, and largely ignoring timing.

Personally, my portfolio is still worth more now compared to August 2007, but even in the event it dips below that, a wider view is more important, compared to 2007 start, 2006 etc. You need to take the rough with the smooth. 2007 looked a good year and was despite bear calls in Q3. 2008 looks tough and has started that way. Perspective is key

BTW On the portfolio I hold, the end of October (not mid-Aug) was the optimum exit point. Not that it's that relevant.

Recent drops will look big to short termers. To long termers, we're not even close to eating into 2007 gains yet.

My favourite Thai investment for illustrating this point is Aberdeen Thailand Growth Fund (I'd add this is not my best or worst performing fund, just a good example for Thailand). Performance:

Year to Date - down 7%

2007 up 16% (bad year actually relatively to index)

2006 up 13%

2005 up 27%

2004 down 4%

2003 up 100%

2002 up 48%

2001 up 25%

That's a simple average of 32% a year to put in context. As at Dec 2007, up 494% in 7 years.

Each year people who think they can time the market say buy or sell at different points. That includes in 2003 people saying take profits in 30%+ bracket and missing the other 70%, and the "I told you so" people in 2004 when it made a loss, who didn't buy into 2005's gains.

I haven't seen anything yet to really worry me. Haven't seen much that I haven't seen before. Different cycles, different phases, up then down. To be 5 months out on the sell call, and say 5 months out on the re-buy call, is in my experience much more costly.

Edited January 22, 2008 by fletchsmile

[cclub75]

I haven't seen anything yet to really worry me. Haven't seen much that I haven't seen before.

That could be a very bad mistake ! I mean not about the principle. But about the scale.

Main figures (debts, leverages etc.) and markets (derivatives) are on totally different scale today, much "worse" than the previous krachs.

Therefore, it's likely that the... outcome could be on a different scale too.

[LivinLOS]

As to the OP's call ?? Better to be out early.. Aug 2007 posts warning.. Oct (less than 3 months later) DOW S&P and Nasdaq peak.. Since then theres a 20% or so pullback...

Not bad timing in my books.

As to your 400% return.. Looking at the DOW.. This century to date.. I suspect after tonights session it may be underwater.. Thats 7 full years and 0 returns before inflation adjustment.

[fletchsmile]

I haven't seen anything yet to really worry me. Haven't seen much that I haven't seen before.

That could be a very bad mistake ! I mean not about the principle. But about the scale.

Main figures (debts, leverages etc.) and markets (derivatives) are on totally different scale today, much "worse" than the previous krachs.

Therefore, it's likely that the... outcome could be on a different scale too.

Just curious, you're the first person I've read that said it could be on a totally different scale, and perhaps expecting worse than the past. My own view tends to go with the majority, that the world's better placed than it used to be for easing the falls thru the systems.

I'd be interested in your viewpoint, as to why you'd say worse, and against what benchmark? Always worth considering something different. i.e. Worse than Oct87, Oct97 or just the smaller blips in 2001-2002?

Last year saw a fair amount of decoupling, during good times. In tougher times I'd expect a slow down in the de-coupling, and perhaps even some re-coupling this year, before it resumes again. Overall various economies seem better places to cope with the risk

[sonicdragon]

Well looking at the markets.. OP wasnt far out so far...

How low will we go ??

Mmm...5 months out on timing??? and you say "not far out"? That's also "IF" it continues and becomes a significant correction.

The OP prediction was made in August 2007, and we're now in 2008 - i.e wrong calendar year? Markets go up then down then up again. After a rise, predicting a fall in the future isn't exactly rocket science. The real key is predicting the timing if that's the way you manage your money. i.e if you trade you need timing, compared to long term which is vfm and quality investments, and largely ignoring timing.

Personally, my portfolio is still worth more now compared to August 2007, but even in the event it dips below that, a wider view is more important, compared to 2007 start, 2006 etc. You need to take the rough with the smooth. 2007 looked a good year and was despite bear calls in Q3. 2008 looks tough and has started that way. Perspective is key

BTW On the portfolio I hold, the end of October (not mid-Aug) was the optimum exit point. Not that it's that relevant.

Recent drops will look big to short termers. To long termers, we're not even close to eating into 2007 gains yet.

My favourite Thai investment for illustrating this point is Aberdeen Thailand Growth Fund (I'd add this is not my best or worst performing fund, just a good example for Thailand). Performance:

Year to Date - down 7%

2007 up 16% (bad year actually relatively to index)

2006 up 13%

2005 up 27%

2004 down 4%

2003 up 100%

2002 up 48%

2001 up 25%

That's a simple average of 32% a year to put in context. As at Dec 2007, up 494% in 7 years.

Each year people who think they can time the market say buy or sell at different points. That includes in 2003 people saying take profits in 30%+ bracket and missing the other 70%, and the "I told you so" people in 2004 when it made a loss, who didn't buy into 2005's gains.

I haven't seen anything yet to really worry me. Haven't seen much that I haven't seen before. Different cycles, different phases, up then down. To be 5 months out on the sell call, and say 5 months out on the re-buy call, is in my experience much more costly.

I know what you mean Fletch, but in the long run even people who claim to be able to time the markets are not successful at it. It's more a question of strategy. I know quite few people who have been playing from the short side (in HK and US markets, not Thai), and they were shorting everyting in sight in Aug. They got very nasty P&L in Sep and most of Oct, but they they had enough dry powder to short more and now they are really looking like champions. One prop guy I know is up $90mm (USD) since August, almost all macro short, and has realised half of that yesterday and today closing out his shorts. Meanwhile long-only fund managers that I know are not feeling too good (had lunch with one last week - I had to pay !). You take the rough with the smooth. Personally I'm flat since Aug.

[LivinLOS]

The explosion of credit is off the scale.. The explosion of derivative gambling is off the scale.. All the old timers like Buffet and soros (called derivatives weapons of financial mass destruction) have called it.. Kondratieff waves say this is the once in a generation one..

Much writing has been on the wall that this could be a 29 like event..

[fletchsmile]

As to the OP's call ?? Better to be out early.. Aug 2007 posts warning.. Oct (less than 3 months later) DOW S&P and Nasdaq peak.. Since then theres a 20% or so pullback...

Not bad timing in my books.

As to your 400% return.. Looking at the DOW.. This century to date.. I suspect after tonights session it may be underwater.. Thats 7 full years and 0 returns before inflation adjustment.

Sorry, I don't quite understand you're "better to be out early"? You can't take the 20% pullback since October, backdated to August. What about the gains from August to October? You can't just take part of the call. For me Jan08 is higher than Aug07, and well above Jan 2007. Why should I have sold in Aug 2007?

BTW Let's suppose I sell now, when do I get back in? Is someone going to be 3-5 months out again on the buys and miss the gains for the next upswing.

The equivalent prediction now we're in a downswing, would be to predict there is going to be an upswing. Then x months later saying I'm right, when it eventually happens.

BTW For the Dow, that's all I really tend to do with it these days... look. I have a small exposure of about 1%, and still <5% if I counted global investments which have some US weightings which overall gets difficult to quantify. I haven't really been interested in the US or USD since around 2001. Not really worried on that score.

[fletchsmile]

I know what you mean Fletch, but in the long run even people who claim to be able to time the markets are not successful at it. It's more a question of strategy. I know quite few people who have been playing from the short side (in HK and US markets, not Thai), and they were shorting everyting in sight in Aug. They got very nasty P&L in Sep and most of Oct, but they they had enough dry powder to short more and now they are really looking like champions. One prop guy I know is up $90mm (USD) since August, almost all macro short, and has realised half of that yesterday and today closing out his shorts. Meanwhile long-only fund managers that I know are not feeling too good (had lunch with one last week - I had to pay !). You take the rough with the smooth. Personally I'm flat since Aug.

Sonic,

I pretty much agree with your post. BTW Not sure why you put "but" instead of "and". That's exactly my point that long term calling the market is very difficult. That's why I always quote "time in the market not timing the market". I just pick what I think are decent places to invest mid-long term and hold it.

The traders that got the timing wrong in Aug, Sep and Oct, as you say will often have enough powder dry for later, as they are usually backed by institutions with risk limits in place to ensure they are not allowed to use all the financial institutions powder. It's the personal traders, with limited funds that usually get pushed out of the game, similar to roulette where they go home broke as their funds/powder are limited and they've overbet.

My strategy is longer term, and as you say take the rough with the smooth

[lannarebirth]

Well looking at the markets.. OP wasnt far out so far...

How low will we go ??

Mmm...5 months out on timing??? and you say "not far out"? That's also "IF" it continues and becomes a significant correction.

The OP prediction was made in August 2007, and we're now in 2008 - i.e wrong calendar year? Markets go up then down then up again. After a rise, predicting a fall in the future isn't exactly rocket science. The real key is predicting the timing if that's the way you manage your money. i.e if you trade you need timing, compared to long term which is vfm and quality investments, and largely ignoring timing.

Personally, my portfolio is still worth more now compared to August 2007, but even in the event it dips below that, a wider view is more important, compared to 2007 start, 2006 etc. You need to take the rough with the smooth. 2007 looked a good year and was despite bear calls in Q3. 2008 looks tough and has started that way. Perspective is key

BTW On the portfolio I hold, the end of October (not mid-Aug) was the optimum exit point. Not that it's that relevant.

Recent drops will look big to short termers. To long termers, we're not even close to eating into 2007 gains yet.

My favourite Thai investment for illustrating this point is Aberdeen Thailand Growth Fund (I'd add this is not my best or worst performing fund, just a good example for Thailand). Performance:

Year to Date - down 7%

2007 up 16% (bad year actually relatively to index)

2006 up 13%

2005 up 27%

2004 down 4%

2003 up 100%

2002 up 48%

2001 up 25%

That's a simple average of 32% a year to put in context. As at Dec 2007, up 494% in 7 years.

Each year people who think they can time the market say buy or sell at different points. That includes in 2003 people saying take profits in 30%+ bracket and missing the other 70%, and the "I told you so" people in 2004 when it made a loss, who didn't buy into 2005's gains.

I haven't seen anything yet to really worry me. Haven't seen much that I haven't seen before. Different cycles, different phases, up then down. To be 5 months out on the sell call, and say 5 months out on the re-buy call, is in my experience much more costly.

You haven't seen lock limit down futures before. At least not in a market that was going to rebound again anytime soon.

[fletchsmile]

You haven't seen lock limit down futures before. At least not in a market that was going to rebound again anytime soon.

Seen yes. Feel comfortable in personally experiencing no.

Will leave that to the short term players and experts. That's the beauty of financial markets, we all have our own different interests, strengths and weaknesses.

On derivatives: I'm happy with the theory and understanding. I'm happy valuing and marking to market other people's positions, and looking at other people's risk on them. I don't really see myself getting into trading them tho. The main exceptions are forward FX contracts, or buying (not writing) options.

[sonicdragon]

I know what you mean Fletch, but in the long run even people who claim to be able to time the markets are not successful at it. It's more a question of strategy. I know quite few people who have been playing from the short side (in HK and US markets, not Thai), and they were shorting everyting in sight in Aug. They got very nasty P&L in Sep and most of Oct, but they they had enough dry powder to short more and now they are really looking like champions. One prop guy I know is up $90mm (USD) since August, almost all macro short, and has realised half of that yesterday and today closing out his shorts. Meanwhile long-only fund managers that I know are not feeling too good (had lunch with one last week - I had to pay !). You take the rough with the smooth. Personally I'm flat since Aug.

Sonic,

I pretty much agree with your post. BTW Not sure why you put "but" instead of "and". That's exactly my point that long term calling the market is very difficult. That's why I always quote "time in the market not timing the market". I just pick what I think are decent places to invest mid-long term and hold it.

The traders that got the timing wrong in Aug, Sep and Oct, as you say will often have enough powder dry for later, as they are usually backed by institutions with risk limits in place to ensure they are not allowed to use all the financial institutions powder. It's the personal traders, with limited funds that usually get pushed out of the game, similar to roulette where they go home broke as their funds/powder are limited and they've overbet.

My strategy is longer term, and as you say take the rough with the smooth

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call, as you keep making great pains to point out. Those who had the conviction to go short in Aug should have done very very well. Personal traders with limited funds who put all their eggs in one basket with will get burned a lot of the time in many markets - I think that is irrelevent. People who went modestly short in Aug and stuck with their conviction would have been selling into the rallies in Sep/Oct and should now be in a very good comfortable position. They would have been in an even better position had they called it in July or Oct, but it's a pipedream to expect to get the timing right every time. Yes, markets will go up and down, but the fact is that the issues which were dogging the markets back in Aug are by and large the same issues that have brought it down again recently, so in my view the call was good.

The reason I said I know what you mean is that I understand you are coming looking at it differently, over a different timespan etc. I just don't know why you keep going on about it. People have different trading/investing strategies.

[LaoPo]

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call...

I agree; I started warning in July. The markets have been extremely volatile since and yesterday's and today's blood bath in Asia and Europe (recovering a bit now, awaiting NY) are the prelude for what's going to happen in the US, today.

More than 50% of Global Markets ended in a Bear market today.

We'll see what happens next but I don't think the bottom is there...yet.

After we see the bottom it's time for stock-picking

LaoPo

[fletchsmile]

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call, as you keep making great pains to point out. Those who had the conviction to go short in Aug should have done very very well. Personal traders with limited funds who put all their eggs in one basket with will get burned a lot of the time in many markets - I think that is irrelevent. People who went modestly short in Aug and stuck with their conviction would have been selling into the rallies in Sep/Oct and should now be in a very good comfortable position. They would have been in an even better position had they called it in July or Oct, but it's a pipedream to expect to get the timing right every time. Yes, markets will go up and down, but the fact is that the issues which were dogging the markets back in Aug are by and large the same issues that have brought it down again recently, so in my view the call was good.

The reason I said I know what you mean is that I understand you are coming looking at it differently, over a different timespan etc. I just don't know why you keep going on about it. People have different trading/investing strategies.

...And over different markets/locations... ... not simply time. Need to differentiate Asian markets, BRICs, Thailand etc from the mature markets. Hence the term global bust still remains inaccurate

Edited January 22, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

So it's .75% FFrate cut. Probably the only thing they could do, though it disturbs me anyhow. .50% was expected and would have been viewed as too little. A Volcker like 1% might have been worrying. Whatever, looks like it's going to 3% to stay , what with elections stopping activity later in the year. Doesn't everyone already have their house mortgaged at 50 year lows? It won't make anyone look anymore creditworthy. Anyway, looks like a Japan scenario unfolding.