Global Correction

[sonicdragon]

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call, as you keep making great pains to point out. Those who had the conviction to go short in Aug should have done very very well. Personal traders with limited funds who put all their eggs in one basket with will get burned a lot of the time in many markets - I think that is irrelevent. People who went modestly short in Aug and stuck with their conviction would have been selling into the rallies in Sep/Oct and should now be in a very good comfortable position. They would have been in an even better position had they called it in July or Oct, but it's a pipedream to expect to get the timing right every time. Yes, markets will go up and down, but the fact is that the issues which were dogging the markets back in Aug are by and large the same issues that have brought it down again recently, so in my view the call was good.

The reason I said I know what you mean is that I understand you are coming looking at it differently, over a different timespan etc. I just don't know why you keep going on about it. People have different trading/investing strategies.

...And over different markets/locations... ... not simply time. Need to differentiate Asian markets, BRICs, Thailand etc from the mature markets. Hence the term global bust still remains inaccurate

Oh, yes, sorry, I forgot I'm not allowed to use the word "etc". I am aware that you are trading in different markets and locations too. Is that better ?

You are just completely missing the point. If you haven't noticed China, for example, is in the process of a rather large correction, for which those that have been playing the short side in the last few months have made huge profits. It's great that you have made profits, or are flat or whatever, being long-term long. Not everyone has the same perspective as you. We know your perspective - you keep ramming it down our throats again and again and again.

[fletchsmile]

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call, as you keep making great pains to point out. Those who had the conviction to go short in Aug should have done very very well. Personal traders with limited funds who put all their eggs in one basket with will get burned a lot of the time in many markets - I think that is irrelevent. People who went modestly short in Aug and stuck with their conviction would have been selling into the rallies in Sep/Oct and should now be in a very good comfortable position. They would have been in an even better position had they called it in July or Oct, but it's a pipedream to expect to get the timing right every time. Yes, markets will go up and down, but the fact is that the issues which were dogging the markets back in Aug are by and large the same issues that have brought it down again recently, so in my view the call was good.

The reason I said I know what you mean is that I understand you are coming looking at it differently, over a different timespan etc. I just don't know why you keep going on about it. People have different trading/investing strategies.

BTW Have you actually checked the main indices since date of opening post of 16 Aug? FYI:

Dow down 5.8% (16 Aug07 12,845.78 now 12,099.30)

FTSE down 4.4% (16 Aug07 5,858.90 now 5598.80)

Thailand which has underperformed the region for the last year or so, has just for the first time today closed below it's 16 Aug07 position of 750.69). That's 1 day below OP's call point, and 5 months above!

etc

If a single short trade was held for this period on say Dow or FTSE it would hardly be "very comfortable".

If you shorted the opening of every single day and closed at every day's end, including continuing beyond Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan you would now start to see a profit. Looks very much to me like 2 1/2 months up, and 3 months down, on mature markets.

That's really what I mean by timing. In reality go back a week or two and indices were mostly higher than the 16 Aug-07 sell call.

So we're looking at say 4-6% down on the two most famous mature markets in 5 months+. That's after a bloodbath? Pick a few Asian markets, eg Hang Seng and they're still in positive territory vs 16 Aug.

Now if you can point out the specific calls on when to close the short positions in the above thread it would add some argument to your "very comfortable" idea. I don't recall many specifics other than "buy on strenth" etc. Given the vagueness of the date chosen, and actually the bottom of the trough it was in....I'll leave it there.

BTW In case you're referring to intra day trading: No doubt there's people been making money "intra day" selling on strength. But let's face it, given the overall shifts we're talking of a few %, there's probably almost as many who have been "buying on weakness" intra day. That's volatility trading either way.

Now buy on weakness Aug-Oct, sell on strength Nov-Jan. That would have been a very smart call

That's what I mean by a little perspective, and timing.

For the record, 22 Jan I'd claim: "there's a largely global upswing coming"... Forgive me if I don't specify when...Let's just say in the next few months perhaps excluding UK and US.

Edited January 22, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

Mr fletchsmile sir,

Corrections are marked from market tops, not market bottoms.

Anyway, nothing at all wrong with the long term view if you're a good stock/sector picker. The important thing is to have cash to deploy when corrections or whatever do take place.

[fletchsmile]

Mr fletchsmile sir,

Corrections are marked from market tops, not market bottoms.

Anyway, nothing at all wrong with the long term view if you're a good stock/sector picker. The important thing is to have cash to deploy when corrections or whatever do take place.

Indeed they should be.

That's why I've forecast an upswing above Also on the same principles/logic, does that mean you'll allow me to quote gains from the lowest point in the next few months to the point when it turns upwards in the next few months?

As I tried to clarify in the post above, the key reference point I usually take is start of post (16 Aug) to current day. Viewed in that perspective is much more precise. That's based on fact, and gets away from the long/short term arguments.

[sonicdragon]

I wrote "but" because I am trying to say that calling a global correction in august was not a bad call, as you keep making great pains to point out. Those who had the conviction to go short in Aug should have done very very well. Personal traders with limited funds who put all their eggs in one basket with will get burned a lot of the time in many markets - I think that is irrelevent. People who went modestly short in Aug and stuck with their conviction would have been selling into the rallies in Sep/Oct and should now be in a very good comfortable position. They would have been in an even better position had they called it in July or Oct, but it's a pipedream to expect to get the timing right every time. Yes, markets will go up and down, but the fact is that the issues which were dogging the markets back in Aug are by and large the same issues that have brought it down again recently, so in my view the call was good.

The reason I said I know what you mean is that I understand you are coming looking at it differently, over a different timespan etc. I just don't know why you keep going on about it. People have different trading/investing strategies.

BTW Have you actually checked the main indices since date of opening post of 16 Aug? FYI:

Dow down 5.8% (16 Aug07 12,845.78 now 12,099.30)

FTSE down 4.4% (16 Aug07 5,858.90 now 5598.80)

Thailand which has underperformed the region for the last year or so, has just for the first time today closed below it's 16 Aug07 position of 750.69). That's 1 day below OP's call point, and 5 months above!

etc

If a single short trade was held for this period on say Dow or FTSE it would hardly be "very comfortable".

If you shorted the opening of every single day and closed at every day's end, including continuing beyond Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan you would now start to see a profit. Looks very much to me like 2 1/2 months up, and 3 months down, on mature markets.

That's really what I mean by timing. In reality go back a week or two and indices were mostly higher than the 16 Aug-07 sell call.

So we're looking at say 4-6% down on the two most famous mature markets in 5 months+. That's after a bloodbath? Pick a few Asian markets, eg Hang Seng and they're still in positive territory vs 16 Aug.

Now if you can point out the specific calls on when to close the short positions in the above thread it would add some argument to your "very comfortable" idea. I don't recall many specifics other than "buy on strenth" etc. Given the vagueness of the date chosen, and actually the bottom of the trough it was in....I'll leave it there.

BTW In case you're referring to intra day trading: No doubt there's people been making money "intra day" selling on strength. But let's face it, given the overall shifts we're talking of a few %, there's probably almost as many who have been "buying on weakness" intra day. That's volatility trading either way.

Now buy on weakness Aug-Oct, sell on strength Nov-Jan. That would have been a very smart call

That's what I mean by a little perspective, and timing.

For the record, 22 Jan I'd claim: "there's a largely global upswing coming"... Forgive me if I don't specify when...Let's just say in the next few months perhaps excluding UK and US.

Yes, thank you. I know where markets have been.

I don't like to repeat myself, unlike you it seems (I've lost count of the number of time's you have quoted index levels at the start date this thread, I even seem to remember you posting some annotated charts to demonstrate ! Don't you get tired of it ?). So, please read my 2nd last post again and if you still can't see what I mean then let's just agree to differ.

On one thing I can agree with you - some markets will have a nice rally in the sometime in the next few months

[sonicdragon]

One more thing Fletch, and I'm sorry if this winds you up, but the kind of traders I am talking about who have made good money in the last few months on the short side are people such as the OP - assuming that he has been following his own advice of course !! As much as his sky-is-falling posts are very annoying, it's also quite tedious to read "but the SET is still up x.x% since 16 Aug" or whatever so often. Different perspectives.

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

Edited January 22, 2008 by sonicdragon

[LaoPo]

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

BingoBongo: Last Seen: Yesterday, 2008-01-21 17:13:53

He'll be back, don't worry.

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

So it's .75% FFrate cut. Probably the only thing they could do, though it disturbs me anyhow. .50% was expected and would have been viewed as too little. A Volcker like 1% might have been worrying. Whatever, looks like it's going to 3% to stay , what with elections stopping activity later in the year. Doesn't everyone already have their house mortgaged at 50 year lows? It won't make anyone look anymore creditworthy. Anyway, looks like a Japan scenario unfolding.

So you think they are done with cutting ? I won't be surprised to see another 25-50 next week at the regular meeting, unless markets snap back quickly. I guess they toyed with the idea of 1% quite seriously, before agreeing on 75 now and to take another look next week. There is a danger that the markets also view it like that in which case it could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

[lannarebirth]

So it's .75% FFrate cut. Probably the only thing they could do, though it disturbs me anyhow. .50% was expected and would have been viewed as too little. A Volcker like 1% might have been worrying. Whatever, looks like it's going to 3% to stay , what with elections stopping activity later in the year. Doesn't everyone already have their house mortgaged at 50 year lows? It won't make anyone look anymore creditworthy. Anyway, looks like a Japan scenario unfolding.

So you think they are done with cutting ? I won't be surprised to see another 25-50 next week at the regular meeting, unless markets snap back quickly. I guess they toyed with the idea of 1% quite seriously, before agreeing on 75 now and to take another look next week. There is a danger that the markets also view it like that in which case it could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

No, I think they're going to 3%, another 1/2%. So which bubble are we blowing now?

[cclub75]

Good comments right now on Bloomberg TV : "what happened between the speech of Bernanke last week and this morning ? Answer : a sale off on stock markets in Asia and Europe".

So it's look that the FED is concerned about assets prices, which they say they are not".

It's so gross, indeed.

Bernanke just wants to save Wall Street.

Wall Street is the last "virtual reality" of wealth in the US.

So next week ? -0.25 or -0.5 or more ? Who cares ? What will be the outcome ? Some rebounds of indexes ?

[sonicdragon]

So it's .75% FFrate cut. Probably the only thing they could do, though it disturbs me anyhow. .50% was expected and would have been viewed as too little. A Volcker like 1% might have been worrying. Whatever, looks like it's going to 3% to stay , what with elections stopping activity later in the year. Doesn't everyone already have their house mortgaged at 50 year lows? It won't make anyone look anymore creditworthy. Anyway, looks like a Japan scenario unfolding.

So you think they are done with cutting ? I won't be surprised to see another 25-50 next week at the regular meeting, unless markets snap back quickly. I guess they toyed with the idea of 1% quite seriously, before agreeing on 75 now and to take another look next week. There is a danger that the markets also view it like that in which case it could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

No, I think they're going to 3%, another 1/2%. So which bubble are we blowing now?

Good question. Maybe the short-dollar bubble I guess it depend on whether we enter a real bear market or not. If so, then Bernanke's worst nightmare could come true (deflation), which would be uncharted territory (for the US), and bearish for gold as well. On the possibility of bear market - see the following chart - what do you make of that from a technical perspective ? Note the tech bust bear market and compare to the current correction which is hardly a blip.

[sonicdragon]

Good comments right now on Bloomberg TV : "what happened between the speech of Bernanke last week and this morning ? Answer : a sale off on stock markets in Asia and Europe".

So it's look that the FED is concerned about assets prices, which they say they are not".

It's so gross, indeed.

Bernanke just wants to save Wall Street.

Wall Street is the last "virtual reality" of wealth in the US.

So next week ? -0.25 or -0.5 or more ? Who cares ? What will be the outcome ? Some rebounds of indexes ?

It's not called the "greenspan put" for nothing - and it's alive and well !

[sibeymai]

Would a few "rubber cheques" help the markets "bounce" back ?

[cclub75]

It's not called the "greenspan put" for nothing - and it's alive and well !

Indeed. Anyway... i'm impatient to see how the chinese are going to react...

This "greenspan put", like a chip on a casino table, is a direct attack against chinese interests...

They really can't be happy. The downward pressure will increase on the USD... Therefore increase the upward pressure on RMB... And what about their USD reserves ?

Actually, the problem is not today (European markets finish with a rally, and maybe WS too tonight)... but tomorrow.

Edited January 22, 2008 by cclub75

[RAZZELL]

Markets go up and down...

My brother isn't complaining...some stocks are now good value. There's still money to be made, although in highly volatile trading conditions.

He made £7k today on RBS...if he'd been a bit more greedy (lucky) he could have made £12-14k.

Profit takers/automated trades will jump in to lower the price tomorrow morning, if it drops back down to 355 he's going to "wade in" again.

I believe the dividend is due in March??? So he might hold.

We shall see

RAZZ

[LaoPo]

New York Close, Tuesday Jan. 22 - 2008

Dow -1.06%

Nasdaq -2.04%

S&P500 -1.11%

So, the damage is limited and the 0,75% interest cut helped, for the time being.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

BingoBongo: Last Seen: Yesterday, 2008-01-21 17:13:53

He'll be back, don't worry.

LaoPo

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

anyone notice the yield on the 10yr bond? the US 10yr treasury is signalling deflation as the target is a yield of 3.20% which will be oh so painful for credit markets

so next support for DOW is 11340 and the next strong support on SPX is 1220 (with bounces along the way)

as this is the thai board, 750 was broken on the SET if it does not bounce, 725 is next support

fletchsmile, your long winded rhetortic is like reading a prospectus, boring and useless

SO ONE LAST TIME, SELL THE BOUNCES....emotions are best left for sad stories not managing money

[LaoPo]

Asian stock markets are ready for a strong rebound this morning -Wednesday Jan. 23 -2008-...

Opportunity knocks...

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

It's not called the "greenspan put" for nothing - and it's alive and well !

Indeed. Anyway... i'm impatient to see how the chinese are going to react...

This "greenspan put", like a chip on a casino table, is a direct attack against chinese interests...

They really can't be happy. The downward pressure will increase on the USD... Therefore increase the upward pressure on RMB... And what about their USD reserves ?

Actually, the problem is not today (European markets finish with a rally, and maybe WS too tonight)... but tomorrow.

So what would you have had the US do ? Nothing ? In which case the dow would have been down 1000 points maybe, which would have been a huge shock to the system and tipped the economy further into recession. It's in China's interest for markets to be stable. The rate cuts were coming anyway - they jusy came sooner than expected. Now the problem is whether the market builds in expectations for more cuts, and whether the Fed action just postpones another big drop a few months down the road. They can only get away with this so many times.......what are they gonna do if rates are are at 1%-2% and staring a crash scenario in the face ?

Now we have to wait for some economic news.

[LivinLOS]

What I would have them do ?? well personally I would have profitied better from the rout than the bounce so sure bring it on

The first 1/2 hour looked nasty.. The cut was there but futures and market open the sells hammered through.. Looks like the PPT worked some hovering magic and that got the bounce, without that bounce things could have been REALLY ugly.

All the problems are still there (less so mortgage resets and defaults so perhaps this changes the debt markets ??) and while low rates will help the resetting debtors and might help the consumer who is underwater, theres still a point in time when people are not going to borrow to spend even when its cheap. Japan is prime example that low rates dont always stimulate consumption.

With this cut and the next.. Look for massive and awful inflation.. Cash assets shrinking in purchasing power to the tune of 10% per annum

[LaoPo]

The markets have a lot of late Xmas surprises in a hidden basket.....

If Countrywide and Northern Rock wasn't enough to swallow..............:

Fannie (Mae), Freddie Mac Face $16 Billion Losses, Credit Suisse Says

By Jody Shenn

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest sources of money for U.S. home loans, may need to recognize $16 billion in losses in fourth-quarter earnings and capital levels because of declines in the value of subprime- mortgage bonds, according to Credit Suisse Group.

The government-chartered companies' earnings and capital haven't yet been hurt by declines in the $230 billion of AAA rated ``non-agency'' mortgage-backed bonds they hold, according to New York-based analysts Moshe Orenbuch and Kerry Hueston. The companies last year sold $13 billion of preferred shares and cut dividends to preserve capital after quarterly losses that stemmed in part from rising homeowner defaults.

With other financial companies this quarter already reporting ``other than temporary impairments'' of mortgage- related holdings that they wouldn't normally need to report under accounting rules, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may need to follow suit, the analysts wrote in a report today.

``We believe that this will likely spur the GSEs' regulator to compel similar actions,'' they wrote, referring to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, regulator to the so- called government-sponsored enterprises.

McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac's subprime securities may be worth $8 billion to $11 billion less than the prices at which the company is carrying them on its books, while Washington-based Fannie Mae's bonds may be worth $2.25 billion to $5 billion less, according to Credit Suisse.

Book Values

Without ``other than temporary'' impairments, or declines in the value of the securities unlikely to be recovered, the losses don't affect the companies' earnings or capital, the analysts wrote.

The losses would affect the book values, or their assets minus liabilities, the companies reported, they wrote. Through September of last year, the companies had only reported 1.5 percent declines in their value of their subprime securities, through adjustments to their book values, they wrote.

The potential losses don't reflect the companies' holdings of securities backed by Alt A mortgages, or loans considered between subprime and prime in terms of default risks, the analysts wrote. Non-agency mortgage securities are ones not guaranteed by the two companies or federal agency Ginnie Mae.

Brian Faith, a Fannie Mae spokesman, and Sharon McHale, a Freddie Mac spokeswoman, didn't return calls for comment today after business hours.

Bonds Tumble

Subprime mortgages were given to borrowers with poor credit or high debt. Based on benchmark ABX derivative indexes, the AAA rated bond created in securitizations of subprime loans in the first half of last year would trade at 68.49 cents per dollar of principal. The AAA ABX indexes indicate the prices for the type of AAA subprime securities that are last to repaid by principal pay downs, refinancing or foreclosure recoveries.

Congress created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand homeownership by increasing mortgage financing and to provide market stability. The companies make money by holding mortgage assets and on guarantees of mortgage-backed securities they create out of loans from lenders.

The companies last year announced changes to the prices they pay for mortgages or charge for guarantees on bonds backed by them that may raise costs to borrowers.

Bloomberg

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

BingoBongo: Last Seen: Yesterday, 2008-01-21 17:13:53

He'll be back, don't worry.

LaoPo

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

anyone notice the yield on the 10yr bond? the US 10yr treasury is signalling deflation as the target is a yield of 3.20% which will be oh so painful for credit markets

so next support for DOW is 11340 and the next strong support on SPX is 1220 (with bounces along the way)

as this is the thai board, 750 was broken on the SET if it does not bounce, 725 is next support

fletchsmile, your long winded rhetortic is like reading a prospectus, boring and useless

SO ONE LAST TIME, SELL THE BOUNCES....emotions are best left for sad stories not managing money

BB, You are spot on when you say that the problem facing the U.S. over the coming months is deflation, some of these posters here talking about runaway inflation in the U.S. are absolutly clueless. I find it rather humorous that whenever there is a worldwide panic in the markets like we saw in asia on monday and tuesday that the money always comes running back to U.S. treasuries, it seems as though the dollar is still the worlds safe haven Please let us know exactly which equities or averages you are shorting now, it will be interesting to look back 6 months from now to see if you are indeed a prophet or just someone who constantly has a negative outlook on everything!

[LaoPo]

The US and the $dollar a 'safe haven'....

Right...

LaoPo

[Naam]

FED "stairway" 1999 - 2008

[Naam]

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

it's extremely difficult to hate you Bingo. most of the time bragging little boys cause just mild amusement

[fletchsmile]

One more thing Fletch, and I'm sorry if this winds you up, but the kind of traders I am talking about who have made good money in the last few months on the short side are people such as the OP - assuming that he has been following his own advice of course !! As much as his sky-is-falling posts are very annoying, it's also quite tedious to read "but the SET is still up x.x% since 16 Aug" or whatever so often. Different perspectives.

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

You're also missing the point each time. It hasn't been just good money for those on the short side, as you put it. During the period in question there will have been as many people on the buy side, "buying the weakness", as there "selling the strength". The point is the opposite strategy would have worked equally well for those trading short term. i.e it's been a very good time for range traders or volatility traders, not specifically for those who believe you should short or go long. You continually miss that subtle point. eg CBOE Vix is at a 5 year high, but markets are pretty much at levels where they were 5 months ago. That's the point you keep missing

BTW Don't tell me you fall for the rhetoric of listening to traders. They'll always highlight the days they make money, and how well they do, omitting the bad days - and are somehwat selective in the calls they tell you about. The only time they'll highlight the losses, is with hindsight after making them up again .

You're not telling us anything we don't know, when you say people different strategies. Would agree tho'...the thread has become tedious...markets go up and down...

As a general point for people: the upswing is coming, hope you haven't panicked and sold too much too soon. Buy on weakness

Edited January 23, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I don't like to repeat myself, ...

Come on be honest. You love repeating yourself. It's a recurrent theme in your posts throughout many threads. Honestly take a look thru your posts on threads, and read how many times you write:

"I don't like to repeat myself, but..."

"As I've said already..."

The most ironic one I find tho' is the repeatedly pointing out that other people repeat themselves. Honestly mate, revisit your post throughout TV, it's a common theme for you. You love it really

[fletchsmile]

as this is the thai board, 750 was broken on the SET if it does not bounce, 725 is next support

fletchsmile, your long winded rhetortic is like reading a prospectus, boring and useless

SO ONE LAST TIME, SELL THE BOUNCES....emotions are best left for sad stories not managing money

Bingo,

I guess you just haven't learnt to read and think on several levels at the same time.

As for your comments on rhetoric. Let's just say I bow to you as a past master of retoric in yourself. Perhaps if we didn't regularly hear your rhetoric of "the end of the world is nigh", "short the markets", "sell the bounces", we wouldn't feel the need to reply to it. Chickens/eggs - which did you say came first???

I also love the irony in your posts: describing "boring rhetoric". It sort of complements Sonic's "I don't like to repeat myself but..I will". I love the irony in life that people's comments on others are actually often reflctions from inside themselves. Think for a moment, when you speak about others, do you think it says more about them, or more about yourself.

You both assume people haven't got your points. Have you ever thought that actually people have. eg. There are different styles of trading. You can make money shorting? Really? tell me about it I've never noticed that.

Perhaps to put in a little context for you both, I'll leave you with one of my regular daily reads:

http://datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/Englishshort.pdf

It's from Phillips Securities in Thailand. They often focus on short term trading on SET. Check it out. A small quote from it:

"Short term trading strategy:Wait to BUY on weakness"

When I read that from time to time juxtaposed with your own post, come on you have to admit it is funny.

The main difference I find between Phillips and yourself is that sometimes they recommend the opposite Unlike your continual directional monotone rhetoric, let's just say their record player isn't broken.

Edited January 23, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

Anyway, it was a nice selloff and should have been a wakeup call to the complacent. I'd have like to have seen some margin calling sessions to feel more comfortable about a bottom, but some good scalping to be had anyway. Can't believe they're going to let the people who bought last week off this easily. Good Luck everyone.

[sonicdragon]

I don't like to repeat myself, ...

Come on be honest. You love repeating yourself. It's a recurrent theme in your posts throughout many threads. Honestly take a look thru your posts on threads, and read how many times you write:

"I don't like to repeat myself, but..."

"As I've said already..."

The most ironic one I find tho' is the repeatedly pointing out that other people repeat themselves. Honestly mate, revisit your post throughout TV, it's a common theme for you. You love it really

Recuring themes in different threads are not the same thing as repeating the same argument *IN THE SAME THREAD* over and over again.

As for "falling for the rhetoric of traders" - year to date P&L captures the down and the up days, wouldn't you agree ? That's what I was talking about, but I don't want to repeat myself with the details - you can read my earlier post. Most of my good friends in HK and London are prop or arb traders. For sure, some of them have had a very bad time. And other have done well. That's how it goes.