Global Correction

[lannarebirth]

One of the problems of having "everybody in" in the markets, is that sentiment gauges are all messed up now IMO. News reports of plunges and crashes when there isn't even (technically speaking) a bear market even present yet. Not one sign of capitulation as far as I can tell. Yesterdays "plunge" was of the painless variety. A few futures traders trading in an illiquid holiday market might have got stung, but no real selling during regular market hours. That said, lots of traditional signs of bottoming appearing. Although many of those prior bottoms didn't require interventions.

[LivinLOS]

Erm.. there isnt a bear market ???

Yesterdays bounce may have brought the DOW out.. But many other markets (most majors ??) are off 20% from highs..

[PCA]

no, there is no bear market yet but we might get one.

[Naam]

nearly all Asia green, nearly all Europe red. watching the DOW today will be interesting.

[LivinLOS]

Really ?? in ALL markets ?? Tell it to the Nikkei.. Tell it to the Nasdaq.. Tell it to..

Among 80 equity national equity benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, indexes in Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Namibia, the Netherlands, Norway, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela and Vietnam have also dropped at least 20 percent from recent highs.

[Abrak]

There is a lot of talk about a bear market (and I must admit I have very little enthusiasm for US stocks).

However, on most valuation parameters they look pretty good value at the moment especially against bonds. (This is even the case if you say knock 15% for earnings estimates being too high for the coming economic downturn.)

It feels like we are entering a bear market - it just doesnt seem the fundamentals are really there for one.

[fletchsmile]

One of the problems of having "everybody in" in the markets, is that sentiment gauges are all messed up now IMO. News reports of plunges and crashes when there isn't even (technically speaking) a bear market even present yet. Not one sign of capitulation as far as I can tell. Yesterdays "plunge" was of the painless variety. A few futures traders trading in an illiquid holiday market might have got stung, but no real selling during regular market hours. That said, lots of traditional signs of bottoming appearing. Although many of those prior bottoms didn't require interventions.

Erm.. there isnt a bear market ???

Yesterdays bounce may have brought the DOW out.. But many other markets (most majors ??) are off 20% from highs..

Guess it depends on your definitions of bear markets and corrections, for which there is never a real consensus or single definition accepted by all. Bear being longer duration and larger magnitude, correction being shorter and smaller magnitude.

The 20% definition usually also talks of recent peaks, 12 month period and key markets. Dow isn't down 20% from its October highs, and FTSE likewise.

As Lanna says,

Technically it's not a bear market, and the plunges are pretty painless. i.e not big magnitude, and most of it in a short timeframe of a couple of days.

[lannarebirth]

Really ?? in ALL markets ?? Tell it to the Nikkei.. Tell it to the Nasdaq.. Tell it to..

Among 80 equity national equity benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, indexes in Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Namibia, the Netherlands, Norway, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela and Vietnam have also dropped at least 20 percent from recent highs.

Maybe bingobongo can put up his graphic showing which city or state in America some of those national economies you cite would be comparable to.

Edited January 23, 2008 by lannarebirth

[cclub75]

nearly all Asia green, nearly all Europe red. watching the DOW today will be interesting.

The corpse needs more morphine ! Another shoot ! Another fix.

Deep red in Europe.

It's huge : FED cuts now last only 24 hours.

[LivinLOS]

An odd argument to use when we are discussing % falls.. But even so how does that apply to the Nikkei ??

[lannarebirth]

An odd argument to use when we are discussing % falls.. But even so how does that apply to the Nikkei ??

NIKKEI not pretty. It has support about 5% lower. Did you see those Bonds?

[bingobongo]

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

it's extremely difficult to hate you Bingo. most of the time bragging little boys cause just mild amusement

yes, and old farts in mildlife crisis cause me disgust

have i been wrong naam? i think not, i have called every support on the US and Thai bourse, and if you lost money, then that is your problem as I am short and loving it

[LaoPo]

A lot of people don't like it when they're wrong or didn't see the problems on the horizon, BB...The bringer of bad news is seldom praised.

Rarely there is someone who admits mistakes, whether in normal- or in the business topics. Some posters are so stubborn, it's almost pathetic.

If Li-Ka Shing, Warren Buffett, George Soros, Alan Greenspan, to name a few, warn the world there's a WorldWide financial tornado approaching, EVERYBODY listens and spread the message ASAP.

They did so and they did that around the same time you started the OP; I started another topic "Watch your steps at Thai SET" at the end of July; same thing. Some posters insisted the SET would brake the 900 and even 1.000 line by Dec. 31 - 2007....yeah right It's 740 now after some 15 trading days in 2008.

If Buffett signs a (further) agreement with the largest Insurer in the world, Swiss Re, and buys a 3% stake, the whole world jumps into insurers. People and investors alike are like lemmings but only if someone is important, famous or admired like the afore mentioned chaps.

But, if a 'nobody', a faceless TV-member, says something, you're a fool.

Maybe it's your chosen words and/or sentences a few members have problems with, me included; I hope you don't mind I say that I think you won't win the Diplomacy Award; you even won't be nominated I fear.

You're warned...

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

So it's .75% FFrate cut. Probably the only thing they could do, though it disturbs me anyhow. .50% was expected and would have been viewed as too little. A Volcker like 1% might have been worrying. Whatever, looks like it's going to 3% to stay , what with elections stopping activity later in the year. Doesn't everyone already have their house mortgaged at 50 year lows? It won't make anyone look anymore creditworthy. Anyway, looks like a Japan scenario unfolding.

So you think they are done with cutting ? I won't be surprised to see another 25-50 next week at the regular meeting, unless markets snap back quickly. I guess they toyed with the idea of 1% quite seriously, before agreeing on 75 now and to take another look next week. There is a danger that the markets also view it like that in which case it could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

No, I think they're going to 3%, another 1/2%. So which bubble are we blowing now?

Good question. Maybe the short-dollar bubble I guess it depend on whether we enter a real bear market or not. If so, then Bernanke's worst nightmare could come true (deflation), which would be uncharted territory (for the US), and bearish for gold as well. On the possibility of bear market - see the following chart - what do you make of that from a technical perspective ? Note the tech bust bear market and compare to the current correction which is hardly a blip.

Sorry, I missed this earlier. I'll respond by PM tomorrow afternoon. I wonder about the deflation and what Bonds are saying, but I never imagined I'd see that in my lifetime, given how Central Banks are these days. Maybe Asset deflation and not generalized deflation.

[Marvo]

Ok BB and all you "experts" out there....

We've contemplated stocks around the world, we've anylized the dollar Vs baht to death and 75 basis pt cut doesn't seem to generate many waves...

Only a .25 cut from the BOE coming next month for sure, which is already priced in to markets.

My interest (which needs feeding) at the moment is: After the meteoric tumble since November 2007, how does everyone think the UK £ is set to fair against the baht over the coming months?

[Naam]

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

it's extremely difficult to hate you Bingo. most of the time bragging little boys cause just mild amusement

yes, and old farts in mildlife crisis cause me disgust

have i been wrong naam? i think not, i have called every support on the US and Thai bourse, and if you lost money, then that is your problem as I am short and loving it

if you were not dyslexic Bingo you would be aware that i don't own any stocks nor have i the intention to buy any stocks and therefore don't care when somebody calls "supports" and whether he is right or wrong

[bingobongo]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

Edited January 24, 2008 by bingobongo

[VegasVic]

Actually I'm surprised we haven't heard from BB on this thread for a few days !

BingoBongo: Last Seen: Yesterday, 2008-01-21 17:13:53

He'll be back, don't worry.

LaoPo

dont worry my children, i am here........just setting up my next short positions, dont hate me becasue i am right, hate yourself becasue you were wrong, i have been trying to help for the past 6 months

anyone notice the yield on the 10yr bond? the US 10yr treasury is signalling deflation as the target is a yield of 3.20% which will be oh so painful for credit markets

so next support for DOW is 11340 and the next strong support on SPX is 1220 (with bounces along the way)

as this is the thai board, 750 was broken on the SET if it does not bounce, 725 is next support

fletchsmile, your long winded rhetortic is like reading a prospectus, boring and useless

SO ONE LAST TIME, SELL THE BOUNCES....emotions are best left for sad stories not managing money

BB, You are spot on when you say that the problem facing the U.S. over the coming months is deflation, some of these posters here talking about runaway inflation in the U.S. are absolutly clueless. I find it rather humorous that whenever there is a worldwide panic in the markets like we saw in asia on monday and tuesday that the money always comes running back to U.S. treasuries, it seems as though the dollar is still the worlds safe haven Please let us know exactly which equities or averages you are shorting now, it will be interesting to look back 6 months from now to see if you are indeed a prophet or just someone who constantly has a negative outlook on everything!

Bingo my man, has the cat got your tongue brother? Since you haven't so good as to let us know what averages or shares you have shorted, I will take the liberty to put you down for a short postion in the DOW as of todays open (actually I will put you in at 12,000 even though the DOW opened lower) and since you have been badmouthing BAC, then I will put you in a short position there as well at say $37/sh (it opened at around $36.86 so I am being generous here as well). If you really shorted CFC at $32/sh last summer then kudos to you it was a great call (I actually made a tidy sum on a 4 day trade on the other side of that bet in august), but its strange that I cannot find the exact post of yours that states this short call? As for myself, I loaded the truck this morning with shares of BAC in the $36.70's I just can't pass up on a fire sale. Now that we have something down on paper, lets revisit these positions of ours in 8 or 9 months and see who had the best instincts, in the meantime it will be nice knowing that you will be paying my dividend on some of those BAC shares. On a side note the CBO came out today with their report and resoundingly made a "no recession" call for the U.S. economy. LIBOR is currently on a steep decline, but it seems the EU central bankers just don't get it, they are so busy fighting inflation throughout the EU that they fell behind the curve yet again, watch for the EU to be in a full fledged recession by the ides of March As for the mighty lord po, keep an eye on the outflows from asian markets (yes particularly the chinese market) throughout the year as most of it will wind up in U.S. denominated assets, yes indeed the flight to safety in the U.S. dollar wil be a recurring theme for quite some time to come, so enjoy that java lao:D

[Naam]

LIBOR is currently on a steep decline, but it seems the EU central bankers just don't get it, they are so busy fighting inflation throughout the EU that they fell behind the curve yet again, watch for the EU to be in a full fledged recession by the ides of March

i think sooner or later Monsieur Jean-Claude Trichet cannot resist political pressure and will cave in. but i agree the step(s) of the ECB might be too little and too late. i also agree that a full fledged recession is possible but definitely not by march. economies which are still in a reasonable shape (Germany and France) don't turn around within two months. EURIBOR rates have started to fall inspite of Trichet's recent hardliner speech. all in my [not so] humble opinion

[LivinLOS]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

Sold (almost an HUI tracker really) the bounce on tuesdays close price.. Watching it retreat yesterday and would buy in again if this drops to 400 - 410 on the HUI.. Dont think it will be that clean tho.. If its looking volatile and sideways would rather remain out of the market for a while.

As I mentioned elsewhere I rarely trade.. First time I have sold/reallocated that fund in 4 years..

[fletchsmile]

... Some posters insisted the SET would brake the 900 and even 1.000 line by Dec. 31 - 2007....yeah right It's 740 now after some 15 trading days in 2008.

...

LaoPo

I'll own up to being one of the people on that one . I said the SET would break 900 before December. It did, just earlier than expected. October - if you'd like to check . Next level after that I said was 1,000+ or 1,100 around mid of 2008.

A couple of interesting points there:

- I never claim to be able to time the markets, unlike many above. Nor does my investment strategy require me to. You forecast a correction in July, and Bingo in August. You both make claims you can time markets. When did the correction happen? some might argue Nov or more accurately now in Jan.

- So let's put in perspective, Bingo's timing was 3-5 months out, and he claims to be someone like yourself who times markets and makes money that way. I was less than 2 months out, and don't claim to be able to time markets. Yes my timing was wrong, but for me the timing is not important in my strategy, so largely irrelevant. As long as overall theme's come good over long timeframes

We're still on track for 1,050+ by mid year to late next year in SET. But if it's a few months either side don't bother highlighting it, I don't care. I'd seriously disagree that August 2007 was anywhere close on timing of a global correction.

BTW I know you'll have read the front page of yesterday's Bangkok post. A small quote from it, and a view which is shared similar to many securities houses here:

''...I think that if the US economy declines, we could see the SET index fall to 680 points. But in the second half [2008], we still forecast the index to reach 1,090,'' Mr Kavee said.

For those of us living in Thailand who regularly follow the SET, you get used to this volatility. It's foreigners outside Thailand who don't understand Thai politics, Thai economy, don't closely follow Thai markets because they find them insignificant. These are the people that worry, and act like drama queens

Edited January 24, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

More boring montone rhetoric. Nudge the needle a little sir

BTW: I read again this morning: "BUY on weakness"

http://datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/Englishshort.pdf

Try and add another string to your bow. Go long on weakness and close out on the strength. At least give us a little variety.

Seems you've learnt one trick, and keep ramming it down our throats and complain when someone offers a different perspective. Learn a new trick, the rest of us do..

Edited January 24, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce ...

BTW2: Just curious. How much were your mark to market losses between Aug-16 and end Oct/early Nov on your strategy of selling the bounce?

As Lao Po points out: It would add some credibility to your claims to admit when you get it wrong sir. .

Edited January 24, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

'll own up to being one of the people on that one . I said the SET would break 900 before December. It did, just earlier than expected. October - if you'd like to check . Next level after that I said was 1,000+ or 1,100 around mid of 2008.

Nothing wrong with making a bad call. Only thing that would be wrong is, if on the basis of new information, you stuck with it. Most people here call nothin. They simply have one note themes they express that are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

[fletchsmile]

'll own up to being one of the people on that one . I said the SET would break 900 before December. It did, just earlier than expected. October - if you'd like to check . Next level after that I said was 1,000+ or 1,100 around mid of 2008.

Nothing wrong with making a bad call. Only thing that would be wrong is, if on the basis of new information, you stuck with it. Most people here call nothin. They simply have one note themes they express that are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

Pretty much agreed. The only thing I'd add, is that in this case I stuck with it, as the amount was fine just timing out, even tho in my favour. Let's just say Xmas came early. The amount was also in the right ball back as Y/E was around 860.

It's actually the second call I'm more interested in, i.e once the 1000-1,100 happens I'll re-evaluate. The first call was only really a taster. In my mind it's simply: 900-ish at some point before year end, and 1000+ 6 months or so later. A few months here and there don't matter. The re-assurance was it hit the 900 and was capable of doing so. This gives me comfort it can still hit say 1,050 sometime end of Q2, Q3

[AmericanGuy1066]

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it........

and and the Fed today lowered the DISCOUNT RATE (interbank lending rate) and not the FED FUNDS rate (consumer rate)

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/doc...ailydrop07.html

U.S. Stock Market Stumble Presaged by S&P 500 Options

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Skittishness over the U.S. stock market's record-setting rally is reaching a crescendo among options traders who are preparing for a crash.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Dude

Another great thread of irony. You posted your very own thread on "global corrections", and now you're telling us that since then there's been a "US stock market record setting rally"...

I bow to the bingo ball...

Yawn... this thread still going ... in circles too

Sonic's told y'all you keep repeating yourselves. And Lao Po's told y'all how people overlook their p*ss poor calls. This one was my favorite though if you don't mind me repeating myself:

OP posted telling us of the gobal bust. 2 months later he justifies it with a US stock market record rally. Now he's telling us "kiddies" to learn from him and short the market

US will pull thru. It always does.

[Naam]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce ...

BTW2: Just curious. How much were your mark to market losses between Aug-16 and end Oct/early Nov on your strategy of selling the bounce?

As Lao Po points out: It would add some credibility to your claims to admit when you get it wrong sir. .

Bingo wrong? aren't you afraid being accused of blasphemy Fletch?

[lannarebirth]

'll own up to being one of the people on that one . I said the SET would break 900 before December. It did, just earlier than expected. October - if you'd like to check . Next level after that I said was 1,000+ or 1,100 around mid of 2008.

Nothing wrong with making a bad call. Only thing that would be wrong is, if on the basis of new information, you stuck with it. Most people here call nothin. They simply have one note themes they express that are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

Pretty much agreed. The only thing I'd add, is that in this case I stuck with it, as the amount was fine just timing out, even tho in my favour. Let's just say Xmas came early. The amount was also in the right ball back as Y/E was around 860.

It's actually the second call I'm more interested in, i.e once the 1000-1,100 happens I'll re-evaluate. The first call was only really a taster. In my mind it's simply: 900-ish at some point before year end, and 1000+ 6 months or so later. A few months here and there don't matter. The re-assurance was it hit the 900 and was capable of doing so. This gives me comfort it can still hit say 1,050 sometime end of Q2, Q3

1100 is a wall. 519 is an open gap.

[LaoPo]

- I never claim to be able to time the markets, unlike many above. Nor does my investment strategy require me to. You forecast a correction in July, and Bingo in August. You both make claims you can time markets. When did the correction happen? some might argue Nov or more accurately now in Jan.

- So let's put in perspective, Bingo's timing was 3-5 months out, and he claims to be someone like yourself who times markets and makes money that way. I was less than 2 months out, and don't claim to be able to time markets. Yes my timing was wrong, but for me the timing is not important in my strategy, so largely irrelevant. As long as overall theme's come good over long timeframes

We're still on track for 1,050+ by mid year to late next year in SET. But if it's a few months either side don't bother highlighting it, I don't care. I'd seriously disagree that August 2007 was anywhere close on timing of a global correction.

BTW I know you'll have read the front page of yesterday's Bangkok post. A small quote from it, and a view which is shared similar to many securities houses here:

''...I think that if the US economy declines, we could see the SET index fall to 680 points. But in the second half [2008], we still forecast the index to reach 1,090,'' Mr Kavee said.

For those of us living in Thailand who regularly follow the SET, you get used to this volatility. It's foreigners outside Thailand who don't understand Thai politics, Thai economy, don't closely follow Thai markets because they find them insignificant. These are the people that worry, and act like drama queens

I "forecast a correction in July.." I can time the markets ?

Sorry Fetchsmile but I never forecast anything, not even where the SET will be in the second half of 2008...and certainly I'm not able to 'time' the market(s)

I wouldn't dare. I just posted a warning to 'watch your steps'; I can't see a prediction in those words.

If someone amongst us, here on TV, predicts anything it's a BIG gamble since no one actually knows exactly what will happen next.

But, I suppose you don't exactly have to be an Einstein to see that the next 1-2 years are going to be a risky roller coaster ride with LOTS of opportunities, and, Fletch, that's a prediction

LaoPo

[RAZZELL]

Markets go up and down...

My brother isn't complaining...some stocks are now good value. There's still money to be made, although in highly volatile trading conditions.

He made £7k today on RBS...if he'd been a bit more greedy (lucky) he could have made £12-14k.

Profit takers/automated trades will jump in to lower the price tomorrow morning, if it drops back down to 355 he's going to "wade in" again.

I believe the dividend is due in March??? So he might hold.

We shall see

RAZZ

I hope some of you got on and didn't spend the whole day on "TV" posting sh1t.

RBS now at 401.

RAZZ :D

Edited January 24, 2008 by RAZZELL