Global Correction

[ace]

japan stocks soar...

Thailand set is flying.... what was that about 750...

what was that about short...

I'd bet they'll be back down tommorow, I'm going to set myself up for a flaming but I'm calling Dow to hit 9999 within 6 months .

Anyone care for a sportsman's bet?

Just thought I'd bump myself up there :D

A little bit late in getting there maybe.................

[LaoPo]

Lets not tell everyone the truth that GS remains highly profitable..GOLD MAN SACHS despite the worldwide financial crisis and billions in write downs, no sir that would take some degree of honesty, something that you seem to be unaccustomed to .

Going forward GS and MS/MORGAN STANLEY are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them (hows that for a scarey thought). I have to say I did enjoy the fact that you seem to have distanced yourself from the Chinese equity market, considering that you were hyping the SSE last year when it was near 6000, too funny

Viccy: if you were not so bloody arrogant with your posts I wouldn't have posted this message....

Your Goliaths...are they still standing ?:

GOLDMAN SACHS GS: -25% today and -54% YTD

MORGAN STANLEY MS: -35% today and -65% YTD

That's as of 12.30PM New York time, so that could change for better o worse.

You know Viccy, I don't like the financial world situation either but you are so bloody blasé, constantly attacking me with you being a self-appointed captain steering the ultimate FINANCIAL WISDOM SHIP.....YEAH, RIGHT.

I have news for you...you're a bad captain, knowing <deleted>....

Now, you better go play golf because you might want to meet your investor banker there who told you all kind of news the past 12 months (as you were telling us here), or is he fired by now ? If not, maybe he has some new investments for you ?

LaoPo

Update:

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Plummet After AIG Takeover

By Christine Harper

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firms, tumbled the most ever in New York trading after a government rescue of American International Group Inc. failed to ease the credit crisis. The cost to protect against a default by the banks rose to a record.

Goldman fell as much as 26 percent on the New York Stock Exchange and Morgan Stanley plunged 44 percent, leading financial stocks to the lowest level in five years.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

I think poster bingobongo got it right. I mean we've had a serious global correction, haven't we? I don't think that can be argued.

So why the picking on bingobongo? He did start the thread. I mean yes he posts like a jerk, but he was right. And people seem to have short memories when it comes to their postings, because I read all 48 pages and there was all kinds of flip flop by other people, but bingobongo was stubborn and he was right. I hope he made a shitload of money, or else then it would be sad that he was just talking and not putting money where his mouth was.

No problem Bingo being right...he DID start the topic on 2007-08-17 15:25:54.

However, there was someone else, a Modest poster, (well... ) who was WARNING about the upcoming decline...

AND: he started earlier than good Old Bingo with a topic called:

Watch Your Steps At Thai SET..., as Global stocks end sharply lower on: 2007-07-26 23:01:32...did you read that too, "jcon". Well, go ahead:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Watch-Steps-...ET-t132689.html

and the update:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Watch-Steps-...82#entry2221582

Sorry Bingo....you were, in fact, late, much to late

LaoPo

[Naam]

Going forward GS and MS are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them...

Vic, the grapevine has it GS and MS are talking since days about a merger as the chances are high that they might not survive individually.

[jcon]

Are you saying that I'm bingobongo or smt like that LaoPo?

I just came onto the thread, and I'm sure bingobongo knows that I'm not him. I just said he was right. I haven't read the other thread, just this one. But if somebody else made the call earlier than I hope they made tons of money. I didn't.

I don't even think he lives in Thailand, as I understand. I do.

about HBOS again, because I just read about it, Lloyds said to be aquiring HBOS at 230smt GPB per share... that's a hel_l of a lot more than the 105ish that I saw it trade at when I made my first post. I'm interested to see the opening in London.

[LaoPo]

Are you saying that I'm bingobongo or smt like that LaoPo?

I just came onto the thread, and I'm sure bingobongo knows that I'm not him. I just said he was right. I haven't read the other thread, just this one. But if somebody else made the call earlier than I hope they made tons of money. I didn't.

I don't even think he lives in Thailand, as I understand. I do.

about HBOS again, because I just read about it, Lloyds said to be aquiring HBOS at 230smt GPB per share... that's a hel_l of a lot more than the 105ish that I saw it trade at when I made my first post. I'm interested to see the opening in London.

No, no, no...it didn't even slip my mind that you were Bingybongy.

I was ironic about the credit Bingobingy got with this topic, whilst I was warning already for the upcoming decline in the world, earlier in another topic called:

Watch your steps at the Thai SET....as Global stocks end sharply lower

No ploblem

Just teasing.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

I think poster bingobongo got it right. I mean we've had a serious global correction, haven't we? I don't think that can be argued.

So why the picking on bingobongo? He did start the thread. I mean yes he posts like a jerk, but he was right. And people seem to have short memories when it comes to their postings, because I read all 48 pages and there was all kinds of flip flop by other people, but bingobongo was stubborn and he was right.

Of course he was right. Like Mish and Roubini. Like every people with some common sense.

The other are just jealous. Jealous because they were wrong, and because they to have to leave now -in a hurry, in panic mode- the virtual comfort of their wonderland, a world where "debt = asset and asset = debt".

Sure... this magic formula worked. For a long time. For so long that the clowns took it eventually for granted.

But this basic ponzi scheme has to end. It's mechanical. No ideology there, just mathematics.

[LaoPo]

I think poster bingobongo got it right. I mean we've had a serious global correction, haven't we? I don't think that can be argued.

So why the picking on bingobongo? He did start the thread. I mean yes he posts like a jerk, but he was right. And people seem to have short memories when it comes to their postings, because I read all 48 pages and there was all kinds of flip flop by other people, but bingobongo was stubborn and he was right.

Of course he was right. Like Mish and Roubini. Like every people with some common sense.

The other are just jealous. Jealous because they were wrong, and because they to have to leave now -in a hurry, in panic mode- the virtual comfort of their wonderland, a world where "debt = asset and asset = debt".

Sure... this magic formula worked. For a long time. For so long that the clowns took it eventually for granted.

But this basic ponzi scheme has to end. It's mechanical. No ideology there, just mathematics.

Cclub75, what's the name of that screaming Investment specialist again, on television, about 1 year ago, interviewed by a Lady ? I saw him today and he was (forgive me) <deleted> UNBELIEVABLE...but absolutely correct.

Can't recall his name and I want to put a YouTube here to show him...

Hilarious but so true and correct.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

well, 10,700 on the DOW was broken today (Sept 17) and if it doesn't rebound and get back over 10,700 quickly, next leg is down as there is no support until 10,300

strap in

[LaoPo]

well, 10,700 on the DOW was broken today (Sept 17) and if it doesn't rebound and get back over 10,700 quickly, next leg is down as there is no support until 10,300

strap in

..some speak about the Dow, down to 8,000; that'll be the day....it's exactly -24,6% down to go from today's DOW at 10,609.66.

Not IMpossible..............................nothing is impossible anymore.

LaoPo

[roamer]

... BTW I have no interest in Lehman nor do I think it concerns most people outside of Wall Street, now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention. Yes the virus did have its origin in the U.S. and because of that the U.S. will be the first to recover. European and Asian economies have a tsunami coming their way Bingo and I do differ in that I say sell gold and buy Dollars and I think he has it the other way around. I hope you didn't get hurt too badly in the Chinese equity colapse, and I certainly hope that you liquidated all that stuff bevause there more dark days to come on the SSE

Lehman: I think it WILL concern a lotof people outside Wall St.; it will have consequences for America in total.

The domino effect is far from over....look at AIG, another large problem coming up or could be toppled alraedy the moment you read this.

If you think the US will recover faster than Europe and Asia...I'm not so sure as you are.

If you say sell gold and buy dollars....? I'm not touching gold (yet) but I wouldn't buy dollars either, no way. You could have a surprise one morning when you wake up with your greenback

Don't you worry about my Chinese equities since I don't have any, nor did; they just belong(ed) to me in your wet dreams

LaoPo

Would have liked to wake up this morning and remembered I'd bought gold.

Why should I want a direct line to the CEO's of Lehman , Goldman or HBOS, AIG etc when I have you guys ?

BingoBongo...whats your number ?

[VegasVic]

Going forward GS and MS are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them...

Vic, the grapevine has it GS and MS are talking since days about a merger as the chances are high that they might not survive individually.

Very interesting Naam and just what grapewine was that?

[Wrong Turn]

well, 10,700 on the DOW was broken today (Sept 17) and if it doesn't rebound and get back over 10,700 quickly, next leg is down as there is no support until 10,300

strap in

..some speak about the Dow, down to 8,000; that'll be the day....it's exactly -24,6% down to go from today's DOW at 10,609.66.

Not IMpossible..............................nothing is impossible anymore.

The DOW hitting 8,000 is definitely, possible. Probable? We have no idea. Possible? Certainly. (I suppose everything is possible.)

I've kept my S & P Vanguard, and TSMKT index funds, and all of my US domestic mutuals, and international mutual funds, and IRAs.

If the DOW goes down to 8,000, I probably will put cash into the markets.

I'm 38 so even though I lost a lot on paper, my timeline is about 25 years.

Is this OK?

[jcon]

well, 10,700 on the DOW was broken today (Sept 17) and if it doesn't rebound and get back over 10,700 quickly, next leg is down as there is no support until 10,300

strap in

..some speak about the Dow, down to 8,000; that'll be the day....it's exactly -24,6% down to go from today's DOW at 10,609.66.

Not IMpossible..............................nothing is impossible anymore.

LaoPo

hang seng down 7,38% as of right now... China Enterprises Index down 9.94%. Dow was down 4 smt % yesterday, IIRC. That's all I've glanced at so far.

These last 2 days alone I'd call a freakin Global Correction!

GS and MS together is like Satan and Satan's brother merging into one giant investment wanke_r. The only way I'd like to see that happen is if it is then destroyed after they've merged, making an even bigger debacle.

edit... MS not ML, sorry ML already got eaten.

Edited September 18, 2008 by jcon

[PCA]

Bottom signs boys and girls. Blood on the street, Joe average talks economy, downmoves have nice volume driven by panic and fear. Every second thai knows Lehman Brothers and AIG.

[midas]

Bottom signs boys and girls. Blood on the street, Joe average talks economy, downmoves have nice volume driven by panic and fear. Every second thai knows Lehman Brothers and AIG.

I am sorry but I have more faith in what Roubini and Soros is warning

the your graph and they are saying ( and other experts ) that the down trend

has still got a long way to go yet................ How can you think we are at the bottom -

this a real contagion, people cashing in their insurance policies,

huge commercial property porfolios up for fire sale.........

[jcon]

Little bits of blood on the streets, but I'd say there's not really blood on the streets yet as far as we're concerned on this topic.

Didn't Cramer (LOL) call a bottom in the summer sometime... what a freak.

I guess even if average joe is talking Lehman, AIG, ML, HBOS, *pick your implosion*, it's not a bottom until everybody has finished puking up their positions -- and it takes longer to puke up the many complex leveraged positions of today.

edit: I even forgot Bear Stearns. haha that's how bad it is...

Edited September 18, 2008 by jcon

[PCA]

Bottom signs boys and girls. Blood on the street, Joe average talks economy, downmoves have nice volume driven by panic and fear. Every second thai knows Lehman Brothers and AIG.

I am sorry but I have more faith in what Roubini and Soros is warning

the your graph and they are saying ( and other experts ) that the down trend

has still got a long way to go yet................ How can you think we are at the bottom -

this a real contagion, people cashing in their insurance policies,

huge commercial property porfolios up for fire sale.........

Experts are not talking they just do their job. If everyone sells who gonna buy to close the deal? The graph hints to a pretty riskless opportunity to step in. I dont know who's Roubini but Soros makes statements to his own favour only meaning he is in the market and makes you sheeps growing his profits. If he is not in then he wants you to get out first before he gets in. That goes for all promoted and honoured investment stars.

Anyway I don't mean to offend you nor should you trust in what I wrote as in this case I just announce what I gonna do because of 1st the chart and second the other reasons I named.

[Wrong Turn]

hang seng down 7,38% as of right now... China Enterprises Index down 9.94%. Dow was down 4 smt % yesterday, IIRC. That's all I've glanced at so far.

I have an ignorant but sincere question:

If the China Enterprise Index is down 9.94 (10%) and the hang seng down 7.3% and close down this much,

can I assume that the US markets will take a 4-7% decline, when I start watching tonight (Thai time)?

[jcon]

hang seng down 7,38% as of right now... China Enterprises Index down 9.94%. Dow was down 4 smt % yesterday, IIRC. That's all I've glanced at so far.

I have an ignorant but sincere question:

If the China Enterprise Index is down 9.94 (10%) and the hang seng down 7.3% and close down this much,

can I assume that the US markets will take a 4-7% decline, when I start watching tonight (Thai time)?

Quick answer. No.

They are 2 different (actually, 3) markets.

Also, between the close of Asian markets and the open of Euro/NA markets, you never know what kind of news can come out (positive or negative).

Hope that kind of answers your question (I know the answer was a bit simplified, but the quick answer is no - That doesn't mean you can't close down in NA (North-American) markets also. And as worldwide markets are kind of like the dog chasing it's tail... well the dog is the USA, so the Asian market performance is kind of following bad US news.

Lots of things going on right now with banks trying to stop the bleeding, the Euro markets could open up today... but then again, who knows

edit: as of this edit the HSI is down 2.36% and the HSCEI down 3.33% or thereabouts... so a huge change from the lunch break on lots of news... but who knows if these fixes (temporary) will help... Other members seem to trade the markets actively, so they may be able to have more input. All I know is that options traders are licking their fricking chops.

Also, for you guys that say things like "the stupid deserve to lose their money" I don't remember who said it, but I saw it more than once reading the thread, you should know that lots of people aren't looking at charts all day and are super-traders.... you've got doctors, lawyers, scientists, etc. who I'm sure are pretty bright but may not be market geniuses. The post above just made me want to say that... a regular guy asking an honest question (at least he dared ask - and he even used the right word, ignorant(ce) - which does not imply stupidity).

Edited September 18, 2008 by jcon

[jcon]

tried to edit but couldn't... i guess the editing time ran out mid-edit:

double edit: looks like HSI and HSCEI will close UP today hahahahha... gotta love these markets. I really hope somebody's cashing in (who is not an investment banker - they all need to burn...)

Lastly, I hate hearing the words, "Too Big To Fail." Does that not strike anybody else as totally contradictory to capitalism? If you're big and you suck, fail for god's sake. Then we can move on. Otherwise we're gonna die a death of a thousand cuts. (Was going to post that as a topic, but I don't know if it has legs as a topic). And please don't use "systemic risk" in the answer....

[lannarebirth]

It is option expiration week in American markets and one could expect that they'd try to buy it into Friday. When/if they do the market will become more overbought. Personally. I take absolutely zero media onboard. Haven't watched television in years and understood that nothing could be worse for someones financial well being than watching CNBC or Bloomberg all day. I look at the chart and the internals. There are some positive divergances here, short term, but I'll be watching the TRIN, which currently says the market is more overbought than oversold. Good Luck everyone.

[jcon]

very good points lannarebirth.

the truth in false media will (or already has) be(en) known. the problem is that many people depend on the likes of CNBC, Blooomberg, etc. etc. investment bankers, advisers, the list goes on, because that's how the media has come to shape society. so somewhere independent analysis went out the window, replaced by other "information."

i'm no conspiracy theorist, but the whole thing stinks to high heaven...

[LaoPo]

It is option expiration week in American markets and one could expect that they'd try to buy it into Friday. When/if they do the market will become more overbought. Personally. I take absolutely zero media onboard. Haven't watched television in years and understood that nothing could be worse for someones financial well being than watching CNBC or Bloomberg all day. I look at the chart and the internals. There are some positive divergances here, short term, but I'll be watching the TRIN, which currently says the market is more overbought than oversold. Good Luck everyone.

You MUST wear special CHART glasses, don't you ?

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

It is option expiration week in American markets and one could expect that they'd try to buy it into Friday. When/if they do the market will become more overbought. Personally. I take absolutely zero media onboard. Haven't watched television in years and understood that nothing could be worse for someones financial well being than watching CNBC or Bloomberg all day. I look at the chart and the internals. There are some positive divergances here, short term, but I'll be watching the TRIN, which currently says the market is more overbought than oversold. Good Luck everyone.

You MUST wear special CHART glasses, don't you ?

LaoPo

Well, if I'm not wearing my glasses, you get one of those posts like the other night where I got about every third letter wrong. Anyhow, I'm just giving my opinion like everyone else.

Since I don't watch TV, I'm not in any kind of crisis mindset. hel_l, they haven't even gone after bondholders yet. so how bad could things be? Market can go a lot lower in the next 18 months though (that's not a prediction). I'm more worried about the war someone's going to start to get out of this mess.

[midas]

Well, if I'm not wearing my glasses, you get one of those posts like the other night where I got about every third letter wrong. Anyhow, I'm just giving my opinion like everyone else.

Since I don't watch TV, I'm not in any kind of crisis mindset. hel_l, they haven't even gone after bondholders yet. so how bad could things be? Market can go a lot lower in the next 18 months though (that's not a prediction). I'm more worried about the war someone's going to start to get out of this mess.

lannarebirth you are the first one to dare to mention this ( reminds me of Basil Fawlty " dont mention the war )

But not wishing to be gloomy, but i think this will happen also - particularly the Iran nuclear issue and now as of

today the threat of something breaking out in The Ukraine because the Russian Navy is based there

and more of the population there are pro Russia................yes somewhere it is going to break out................

[ace]

Would have liked to wake up this morning and remembered I'd bought gold.

I did. Guess what? It's backed by AIG. Ceased trading 40 hours or so conf. call 11am.

[lannarebirth]

This is what's called "the point of recognition".

[lannarebirth]

dumb, dumb, dumb

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=mktw

[flying]

dumb, dumb, dumb

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=mktw

Yes & just heard that on CNBC & also some here...(sorry did not get the name & not sure if was company or fund)

Has stopped loaning out shares to effectively stopping shorting