Global Correction

[flying]

New York closed, Wednesday, November 9th, 2008

DOW below 8,000

NASDAQ below 1,400

S&P500 lowest since October 2002.

FORD Motor dropped 25%

GM dropped almost 10%

General Electric GE: dropped 10%

LaoPo

I was half watching the news this morning. Seems they were grilling some questions into GM about their need for $

Ir did not sound good for GM & from what I heard rightfully so.

Do you know who owns 80%? What capital investment firm?

Cerberus LLC, the New York City–based private-equity firm that owns 80% of Chrysler

Then Do you know who sits in that company? Sounded like mostly high end ex-politicians. Like Ex- Vice President Dan Quayle...Remember the one that couldn't spell potato?

Then a few asked some good questions of the company like what will you change so your not going to be back in a few years & ask again for $? Why is Honda America doing fine?

Also do you know how much those auto workers get paid per hour to stand there in their clean jeans & T-shirts passing parts? I was really amazed I didn't know their unions had driven their wages so high.

The average UAW-represented GM assembly line worker makes just under $28 per hour now before health-care and other benefits that take total hourly labor costs to $73, the automaker has said.

By contrast, Toyota's average hourly cost for workers at its U.S. plants was under $48 per hour including benefits.

No wonder that company cannot survive.

Edited November 19, 2008 by flying

[VegasVic]

New York closed, Wednesday, November 9th, 2008

DOW below 8,000

NASDAQ below 1,400

S&P500 lowest since October 2002.

Dow 7,997.20 -427.55 (-5.07%)

S&P 500 806.63 -52.49 (-6.11%)

Nasdaq 1,386.42 -96.85 (-6.53%)

FORD Motor dropped 25%

GM dropped almost 10%

General Electric GE: dropped 10%

Chrysler LLC Chief Executive Officer Robert Nardelli told Congress his automaker studied a prearranged bankruptcy before dismissing the idea as unworkable and approaching the U.S. government for money to survive.

CITIGROUP: dropped 23%; posts biggest percentage drop ever.

JPMorgan Chase: dropped 11.4%

Bank of America BAC: dropped 14%

Wells Fargo WFC: dropped 10%

YAHOO: dropped 21%; Microsoft not interested.

"U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid below their lowest closes since 2003 on growing concern over the fate of the nation's car industry and economic data signaling the recession is deepening."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

U.S. stocks stumble after dour economic data

Financial sector weighs on market; GM slides 15% as lawmakers debate aid

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-s...6-8191B9B77C16}

LaoPo

I am usually a guy who sees the glass of water as half full, but after today I may have to reevaluate that outlook. The DOW and NASDAQ don't concern me as much as the S&P does. I figured that the DOW would retest the interday low of 7882 it had back in the middle of October (we may see this tomorrow) but the S&P went right through 838 like a hot knife through butter! The minutes from the last FED meeting were made public today and they were not very encougaging, also I have to admit that while the market took a nose dive in the last hour it didn't feel like the final capitulation that I have been waiting for. I am glad that I took that hedge position in the gold miners against my oil short last month, because even though I see oil headed to $45/bbl, any substantial negative geopolitical event at this juncture could send oil to $75/bbl in a heartbeat! I am still sitting in cash for the most part, just waiting for that final capitulation, but somehow I don't think that we will see it for a while yet I got to hand it to Bingo once again, he never waivered once on his doomsday prediction over the past year and a half, and in the end he was right!

[bingobongo]

so much for China being the engine of growth and 'decoupling' from the crisis in the west....and yes, great pain is coming to LOS

China warns jobs outlook 'grim' as economy slows

Officials from the national police chief to local leaders have warned job losses could spark protests threatening social stability and one-party communist rule.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...K7NvswD94IKSS80

[siam4ever]

What crisis? Housing prices are coming down, food prices are coming down, fuel prices are coming down, less farang will be polluting Thailand; happy days are here again!

[pkrv]

so much for China being the engine of growth and 'decoupling' from the crisis in the west....and yes, great pain is coming to LOS

China warns jobs outlook 'grim' as economy slows

Officials from the national police chief to local leaders have warned job losses could spark protests threatening social stability and one-party communist rule.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...K7NvswD94IKSS80

That’s odd - I am seeing a 115% increase in my Thai assets since 2005 I am UK based - Very oddly I have no need to sell, but take comfort in not listening to a word you say, especially when it come to Thailand.

I know that naam does not agree with my thoughts but if i were to liquidate (my Thai assets) today that's not bad going is it ];-).

So Bingo most here seem to think the USD is at a peak, and I agree - will you be buying in Thailand whist the going is easy (for US people) or just rubbishing the place as usual? Or do you now have a Vietnamese partner?

[lannarebirth]

Some Global Correction comparisons of note:

[LaoPo]

so much for China being the engine of growth and 'decoupling' from the crisis in the west....and yes, great pain is coming to LOS

China warns jobs outlook 'grim' as economy slows

Officials from the national police chief to local leaders have warned job losses could spark protests threatening social stability and one-party communist rule.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...K7NvswD94IKSS80

This is the MAIN problem, not just for China, but for ALL present governments (and Obama in January)...social unrest and protests.

This is also (in my own opinion) WHY all governments took the steps to bail out the banks and other financial institutions because they fear unrest and uproar if people would lose all of their savings.

Some people compare the 1929 crash with the present situation. If there would be similarities, there is one MAJOR important point that is completely different and that is number of people:

USA 1929: 120 Million versus 305 Million now.

WORLD 2 Billion in 1930 versus 6.6 Billion now

The dilemma the US government is facing now...helping or not the big three car companies GM/FORD/CHRYSLER is a painful one....

Under normal circumstances those companies would have to go under but now....?

And, what companies would be next ?

The same for the European and Far Eastern governments....how to keep their citizens calm if the recession deepens and in the worse scenario worsens into a depression....?

The present political situation in Thailand is not helping the declining economy and the unrest could deepen....more than we think.

siam4ever & pkrv:

Siam, you seem to be happy about prices going lower but that's shortsighted. Its called deflation and is a very dangerous sign for the entire economy. People stop buying and change their buying behaviour into a waiting attitude; stop spending and that's the worse thing which could happen to any economy.

Pkrv: your 115% increase in Thai assets is a paper increase and not reality. It will only become reality if you sell NOW...but you don't want to sell, do you ?

Also, if you sell now...or in a few months you will see that there are few to no buyers and most certainly not willing to pay for your asking prices, or like you mentioned: your 115% assets.

It's all in the game.

Better buckle up because the worse is yet to come; for all of us.

Lannarebirth: Thanks for that graph ! It shows that we could still have a long ride to go and I'm afraid we will.

LaoPo

[pkrv]

Pkrv: your 115% increase in Thai assets is a paper increase and not reality. It will only become reality if you sell NOW...but you don't want to sell, do you ?

Also, if you sell now...or in a few months you will see that there are few to no buyers and most certainly not willing to pay for your asking prices, or like you mentioned: your 115% assets.

It's all in the game.

Better buckle up because the worse is yet to come; for all of us.

LaoPo

Correct I will not sell because I don't have to. I guess you could say I am buckled in, and this is one of my homes. What I said is true but just undermines a certain bingo bonkers perspective. If I had money to burn I would probably extend my thoughts across the world because these would not be homes. Does that make sense?

[LaoPo]

So far, on the NY stock exchange, it's looking bad, very bad....

The Car builders dropped further:

GM: -35% :D

FORD: -16%

Financials are beaten also:

CITIGROUP: -20% "Saudi Prince boosting Citi stake to 5%"*

BAC: -11%

GE: -12%

* http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Saud...E-9670180A0C3D}

Citi has raised $50 billion in private capital, in addition to the $25 billion that the U.S. government has provided under the TARP program, the statement said.

The $50 billion of private capital investment included a $7.5 billion injection from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which at the time put its holding at 4.9% of the company, and made the group Citi's largest owner.

LaoPo

[shochu]

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

Gold UP............+171%

Real Estate.........- 8%

Dow down............-27%

S&P500 down.........-41%

Year to date performance as of 11/20/08:

Gold down...........-12%

Dow down............-40% -- 3 times worse than gold

S&P500 down.........-45% -- 4 times worse than gold

Real Estate.........-58% -- 5 times worse than gold

Edited November 20, 2008 by shochu

[pkrv]

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

Gold UP............+171%

Real Estate.........- 8%

Dow down............-27%

S&P500 down.........-41%

Year to date performance as of 11/20/08:

Gold down...........-12%

Dow down............-40% -- 3 times worse than gold

S&P500 down.........-45% -- 4 times worse than gold

Real Estate.........-58% -- 5 times worse than gold

Hmm so 115% (look that is not accurate its all over the place since 2005) so shochu what did you do. I have seen you post before.

[flying]

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

Gold UP............+171%

Real Estate.........- 8%

Dow down............-27%

S&P500 down.........-41%

Year to date performance as of 11/20/08:

Gold down...........-12%

Dow down............-40% -- 3 times worse than gold

S&P500 down.........-45% -- 4 times worse than gold

Real Estate.........-58% -- 5 times worse than gold

Hmm so 115% (look that is not accurate its all over the place since 2005) so shochu what did you do. I have seen you post before.

No he said

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

It has only gone up since then. 1/1/2001 it was approx 267/oz

It never looked back

[pkrv]

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

Gold UP............+171%

Real Estate.........- 8%

Dow down............-27%

S&P500 down.........-41%

Year to date performance as of 11/20/08:

Gold down...........-12%

Dow down............-40% -- 3 times worse than gold

S&P500 down.........-45% -- 4 times worse than gold

Real Estate.........-58% -- 5 times worse than gold

Hmm so 115% (look that is not accurate its all over the place since 2005) so shochu what did you do. I have seen you post before.

No he said

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

It has only gone up since then. 1/1/2001 it was approx 267/oz

It never looked back

Sorry - that is not what I meant. I was cross referencing to the returns on the Thai real estate market (against GBP) vs the above

[flying]

Sorry - that is not what I meant. I was cross referencing to the returns on the Thai real estate market (against GBP) vs the above

Sorrry my bad

[bingobongo]

well kids, the death cross has been confirmed on BOTH the DOW and SET see you at the bottom....................

well, i tried to warn you, the death cross was signaling the pain to come, and it isn't over yet

DOW,-403.02 -5.04% 7,594.26

[LaoPo]

New York closed:

Dow 7,552.45 -444.83 (-5.56%)

S&P 500 752.52 -54.06 (-6.70%)

Nasdaq 1,316.12 -70.30 (-5.07%)

LaoPo

[lordofdelusion]

Some Global Correction comparisons of note:

I am completely lost in charts but enjoy all the posts with them as I try to figure them out.

In this one it shows that the current downturn is much sharper than the last 2. Taking only about 300 days to lose 45% as opposed to 450 or 600. Does this mean sharp down, sharp up, or more like 1929 when it just kept going? Does anyone really know?

Not hard to count your blessings here as outside the window are people far worse off than me.

[flying]

Some Global Correction comparisons of note:

I am completely lost in charts but enjoy all the posts with them as I try to figure them out.

In this one it shows that the current downturn is much sharper than the last 2. Taking only about 300 days to lose 45% as opposed to 450 or 600. Does this mean sharp down, sharp up, or more like 1929 when it just kept going? Does anyone really know?

Not hard to count your blessings here as outside the window are people far worse off than me.

I wonder the same as you but also looking at that I wonder what was the initial cause of the cliff at the beginning of the crash of 29

[pkrv]

I have in the past used worldfirst as a FX broker they were OK. They do however make comments from time to time in a morning update.

I sort of said EEK!

"Gloom emanating from the US continued to strengthen the US dollar yesterday as trouble brewed on Capitol Hill and in the jobs market. The 3 main automakers in the US have been petitioning Congress for $25bln of funds in order to stave off Chapter 11 bankruptcy; reports suggest however that representatives left the nation's capital with empty hands. This brought equity bourses sharply lower in late trading; the DJIA falling by 5% with similar figures seen on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.

The US jobs market also took a pasting yesterday as it emerged that the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending 15 November rocketed to 542,000 with Continuing Claims breaking through the 4mn barrier which has not happened in the past 2 recessions that the US has experienced. Some unemployment figures are the highest they have been since 1983 and with increasing pessimism over the world's largest economy circulating further records can and will be broken.

Dollar also strengthened against sterling yesterday as crude oil fell to below $50 for the first time in 3 years and is now 1/3 of its high this summer. Further falls in the price are predicted with options premiums for protecting falls below $40-$45 rising by 90% overnight. An extraordinary meeting of OPEC will take place in Egypt next week and production cuts will be on the agenda as they try to bolster their members' budget deficits.

Retail sales in the UK fell by a better than expected 0.1% yesterday although this was not enough to stop sterling's slide throughout the day and should not be viewed as the dawn of a recovery but more likely the postponement of the inevitable.

Today is a fairly quiet data cycle and we will look towards oil and equity bourses for direction.

Have a great weekend.

Indicative Rates

Sell

Buy

GBPEUR

1.1853

1.1879

GBPUSD

1.4839

1.4871

EURUSD

1.2509

1.2533

GBPJPY

140.66

141.31

GBPAUD

2.3846

2.3940

GBPNZD

2.7834

2.7934

GBPCAD

1.8974

1.9087

NZDUSD

0.5305

0.5353

GBPZAR

15.80

15.88

USDZAR

10.63

10.70

GBPPLN

4.5160

4.5478

EURJPY

118.57

119.04

Rates are dependent on amount transacted

Please call 0207 801 9080 for a live rate quote

"

Edited November 21, 2008 by pkrv

[shochu]

if u want to know what i have done - just go through my past posts and i have mentioned what i have done and along the way i have also given subtle hints at what was a good play.

to date i now hold two forms of investment that i have cashed out with my initial investment thus leaving me holding profit in these two investment vehicles. the first one was a sure thing and the second one was an almost sure thing contingent on everything coming together - and they have. thus i am up this year - i won't say how much since many are down at this point in time and will probably continue to lose with respect to where i see things going.

one thing i will mention - which i have in the past - is i spend a chunk on things i collect and these have all gone up in value and will only continue to go up and since i enjoy having them i hope to never be in a position to have to sell them. like i have said all along - i do not want to be holding too much currency when this things works its way through - just enough to keep me in the things i need and enjoy AND enough to tide me over in the event of a banking holiday.

where do i see things going - not where many have been speculating on this board!

[AlexLah]

Calm down all. we could be in a much worser position.

Imagine having no friends.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6Y_ncOVlDw

[pkrv]

if u want to know what i have done - just go through my past posts and i have mentioned what i have done and along the way i have also given subtle hints at what was a good play.

to date i now hold two forms of investment that i have cashed out with my initial investment thus leaving me holding profit in these two investment vehicles. the first one was a sure thing and the second one was an almost sure thing contingent on everything coming together - and they have. thus i am up this year - i won't say how much since many are down at this point in time and will probably continue to lose with respect to where i see things going.

one thing i will mention - which i have in the past - is i spend a chunk on things i collect and these have all gone up in value and will only continue to go up and since i enjoy having them i hope to never be in a position to have to sell them. like i have said all along - i do not want to be holding too much currency when this things works its way through - just enough to keep me in the things i need and enjoy AND enough to tide me over in the event of a banking holiday.

where do i see things going - not where many have been speculating on this board!

This I believe is what it is about - I stand by my guns because guess what, I am not immortal - though I do have plans for the next generation - I will do what I can.

[whiterussian]

Calm down all. we could be in a much worser position.

Imagine having no friends.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6Y_ncOVlDw

That is INCREDIBLE!

[thucydides]

The Depression has arrived in the USA.

The $ isn't strengthening, it's just that all other currencies are failing but at different varying rates.

Socialism can't help Detroit, only protectionism and that will inevitably precipitate further the rate at which the rest of the world follows into the gathering gloom

Unemployment everywhere in the world will increase and states addicted to welfare will inevitably slide into deflation.

The baht is as dead in the water as all other currencies but at least the Thai can hunker down back on the land.

We're all doomed.

[bingobongo]

so basically, the bond market is saying it safer to let the government borrow at almost 0% (aka putting it under your mattress) rather than incur any risk, there is an old adage, "the bond market is smarter than the stock market"

so what the the .01 current price/yield on the 3 month is saying is that something very nasty is coming.......get ready...and yes Asia will also feel immense pain

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

Edited November 21, 2008 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

U.S. Stocks Rally as Obama Picks Tim Geithner to Head Treasury

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fc&refer=us November 21, 2008

47, 9th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Amazing, but good news I suppose...

Personal life

Geithner was born in Brooklyn, New York City, to Mr. and Mrs. Peter F. Geithner of Larchmont, New York. He completed high school at International School Bangkok, Thailand,[5] and then attended Dartmouth College, graduating with a B.A. in government and Asian studies in 1983. After, he obtained an M.A. in International Economics and East Asian Studies from Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in 1985. He has studied Japanese and Chinese and has lived in East Africa, India, Thailand, China, and Japan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_F._Geithner

&

http://www.ny.frb.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/geithner.html Timothy F. Geithner

Tim Geithner has assembled an unofficial advisory panel dominated by finance-industry executives

The Man Who Saved (or Got Suckered by) Wall Street

by Gary Weiss June 2008 Issue

MONEYMAN Tim Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, photographed at his office in Lower Manhattan on April 9.

From:

http://www.portfolio.com/executives/featur...ef-Tim-Geithner

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Although the Federal Reserve has become more open over the years, it is still one of the most mysterious Washington institutions.

These photos from files or provided by the Federal Reserve are the people, who hold such power over each American's pocket book: from top left, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke; Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies; Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn; Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh; Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner; Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin; Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York;(bottom left, LP) William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Cathy Minehan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

-Daylife

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

A bit of hope....?

New York closed, Friday, November 21, 2008:

Dow 8,046.42 +494.13 (+6.54%)

S&P 500 800.03 +47.59 (+6.32%)

Nasdaq 1,384.35 +68.23 (+5.18%)

But, Citigroup lost another 20% and losing a dramatic 60% in the past 5 trading days and 87% since Jan. 1, 2008.......a company, once solid as a rock with 352,000 employees...

LaoPo

[jcon]

Did that rally seem like a rally on strengh, or just massive short-covering? Gaithner appointment alone can raise the market 6.5% ??? Doesn't seem so great, especially given Citi got obliterated. What good news is out there to raise the markets? Monday?

[LaoPo]

Did that rally seem like a rally on strengh, or just massive short-covering? Gaithner appointment alone can raise the market 6.5% ??? Doesn't seem so great, especially given Citi got obliterated. What good news is out there to raise the markets? Monday?

It looks like it...investors are desperate for some positive news, whether it helps or not remains to be seen.

Stocks rally on report Geithner will head Treasury

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stoc...2-C9CA991CAF99}

LaoPo