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El Niño Threatens Vietnam with Extreme Weather and Water Shortages

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Vietnam may face intensified heatwaves and water shortages due to the likely return of El Niño later this year, as warned by Dr. Truong Ba Kien from the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology. The phenomenon is expected to affect the latter half of the year, contributing to extreme weather patterns.

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Recent warnings from international meteorological agencies suggest a potential "super El Niño" could develop, although Dr. Kien clarifies that this is a media term for very strong events with specific oceanic conditions. Expectations are based on the Oceanic Niño Index, which forecasts a greater than 60% chance of El Niño forming by summer 2026, with possible peak events into year's end.

While potential impacts on Vietnam remain uncertain, historical data indicates above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall during El Niño. These conditions could lead to heatwaves and droughts, particularly affecting central and southern Vietnam. The North may see increased heatwave occurrences, with forecasts predicting a temperature rise of 0.5-1°C above normal averages.

The prospect of El Niño complicates Vietnam's existing climate challenges. It could amplify recent global warming trends, worsening heatwaves and extending their duration. However, specific weather outcomes remain unpredictable, as they depend on various climatic variables and regional factors.

As the situation evolves, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric developments will be crucial. Vietnam will need to prepare by adopting multi-risk management strategies across agriculture, water resources, and energy sectors to mitigate El Niño's adverse effects.

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image.png  Adapted by ASEAN Now · VN Express · 16 Apr 2026

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