Nigel Farage’s dream of reaching Downing Street has suffered a fresh setback after Reform UK’s defeat in the Makerfield by-election, intensifying doubts about whether the party can convert protest support into electoral victory.

The loss marks Reform’s fourth by-election defeat in succession and has triggered renewed scrutiny of both Farage’s leadership and the party’s long-term prospects.

Anti-Reform Vote Finds Its Strength

Makerfield exposed a growing challenge for Reform: voters determined to stop Farage at almost any cost.

Political observers pointed to strong tactical voting among anti-Reform supporters, suggesting that resistance to the party may be hardening rather than weakening. For Reform strategists, that presents a serious obstacle in key battleground seats where broad coalitions can form against them.

The result also arrived at a politically awkward moment, with Labour buoyed by the prospect of new leadership and seeking to rebuild support in former industrial heartlands.

Pressure Mounts Inside Reform

Critics argue the campaign highlighted deeper organisational weaknesses. Questions have been raised over candidate selection, campaign discipline and the highly centralised nature of decision-making within the party.

Farage remains Reform’s dominant figure, but opponents claim that strength may also be a vulnerability. If the party's fortunes are tied too closely to one leader, setbacks quickly become personal as well as political.

The defeat has also fuelled speculation about morale within Reform's ranks after a series of disappointing electoral performances.

Threat Emerges From the Right

Perhaps the most troubling development for Reform is competition from parties positioned even further to the right.

The Makerfield result suggested some disaffected voters are no longer automatically turning to Farage as the vehicle for protest. Smaller rivals are beginning to chip away at Reform’s support, creating a dilemma familiar to many insurgent movements.

Moving further right risks alienating moderate supporters. Standing still risks losing votes to challengers.

Road to Power Looks Longer

Despite the setback, Reform insists its broader strategy remains intact and that one by-election does not define a national movement.

Yet Makerfield has sharpened a crucial question. Reform remains a force in British politics, but if electoral gains continue to stall and rivals keep emerging, Farage’s route to No. 10 may prove far more difficult than opinion polls alone suggest.

What does Reform’s failure in Makerfield mean for Nigel Farage’s No. 10 hopes?

None Reform will not win every by election, Burham won to get rid of Starmer, in Denton the Greens won by postal voting mostly by the Muslim areas around Denton and surrounding districts, anyone can post on a subject and spread rumours withourt Evidence. I could say labour will lose now Starmer gone, even though he won a landslide. Its all hearsay wait in the next few Months. However Reform have topped every pole for the last six months.

17 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

None Reform will not win every by election, Burham won to get rid of Starmer, in Denton the Greens won by postal voting mostly by the Muslim areas around Denton and surrounding districts,

Ok.

17 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

anyone can post on a subject and spread rumours withourt Evidence.

Yes Barra, yes they can. I see it a lot on here.

Edited June 24Jun 24 by josephbloggs

Didn't the SDP say they were going to win the General Election at one time. I remember a lot of MP's jumping ship to join them - big mistake.

Reform will go the same way as the SDP

2 hours ago, Bannoi said:

Didn't the SDP say they were going to win the General Election at one time. I remember a lot of MP's jumping ship to join them - big mistake.

Reform will go the same way as the SDP

It was David Steel, at the Liberal Party conference, shortly after the SDP-Liberal pact was formed.

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!

Danny Kruger used very similar language 44 years later.

You can shout your mouths off now wait and see, I'm still waiting for you lot to explain why Reform smashed you in the local Elections from Newcastle to lands End, but so far not a jot from you ? wonder why.

17 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

You can shout your mouths off now wait and see, I'm still waiting for you lot to explain why Reform smashed you in the local Elections from Newcastle to lands End, but so far not a jot from you ? wonder why.

Local council elections in May were a protest against the Starmer government.

Voters know council elections won't change the national government so they feel free to let off steam.

However when the king of the north contested Makerfield, many Labour supporters returned to the fold, seeing new hope for Labour.

Plus tactical voting from Green and Lib Dem supporters to keep Reform out.

Time will tell if Labour can keep the momentum, regarding immigration, the Home Secretary is publishing her new bill shortly.

Local elections and their results are not a reliable indication of General Election results.

Reform did well in the local elections without a doubt. Repeating that result in future local elections will likely be decided on their effectiveness or otherwise in local government. The jury is out, and I do not live in the UK and do not feel qualified to offer an opinion. One might say I am sceptical!

On the national stage they are a single issue party (immigration) which has sprung from another single issue party (Brexit/UKIP). They seem to lack the broad raft of policies and positions on many things which influence the electorate in a General Election. They are in many ways politically immature.

Cynics may hold that the flagshagger vote whilst vocal and highly visible is insufficient to propel them into government.

7 hours ago, BarraMarra said:

None Reform will not win every by election, Burham won to get rid of Starmer, in Denton the Greens won by postal voting mostly by the Muslim areas around Denton and surrounding districts, anyone can post on a subject and spread rumours withourt Evidence. I could say labour will lose now Starmer gone, even though he won a landslide. Its all hearsay wait in the next few Months. However Reform have topped every pole for the last six months.

Reform cleared the board at Makerfield during the Local Elections , that was the protest vote.

Farage can’t win a General Election without moderating his policies to the political center, as soon as he does his ‘anti-establishment base’ will flip to the more rabid Restore offering.

Multimillionaires funded by billionaires scrapping over the ‘anti-establishment vote’.

Everyone hated Starmer thats why Burnham won wide. People who normally stayed home charged to the voting stations to show their disdain for the fascist tyrant.

Nobody will every be as hated as Starmer again so consider it a one off.

Starmer didnt shed a tear for the southport victims, for Nowak, for the farmers or the grandfather his regime locked up who killed himself in jail, but was blubbering like a baby when his career failed. Pure flith. Good riddance. Trash.

3 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Everyone hated Starmer thats why Burnham won wide. People who normally stayed home charged to the voting stations to show their disdain for the fascist tyrant.

Nobody will every be as hated as Starmer again so consider it a one off.

Starmer didnt shed a tear for the southport victims, for Nowak, for the farmers or the grandfather his regime locked up who killed himself in jail, but was blubbering like a baby when his career failed. Pure flith. Good riddance. Trash.

Had the Reform candidate won Starmer would have been just as effectively finished and Labour would have been forced into a panic leadership battle with no clear winner in sight.

Your argument would only make sense if Reform voters are too thick to realize that reality.

For once you might be right.

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Had the Reform candidate won Starmer would have been just as effectively finished and Labour would have been forced into a panic leadership battle with no clear winner in sight.

Your argument would only make sense if Reform voters are too thick to realize that reality.

For once you might be right.

Nonsense.

Had Reform won Starmer would have stayed in office.

Labour have no other talent to replace him. They're all deeply damaged goods.

So yes, Burnham's victory effectively removed him. Trying to pretend otherwise is inane.

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Nonsense.

Had Reform won Starmer would have stayed in office.

Labour have no other talent to replace him. They're all deeply damaged goods.

So yes, Burnham's victory effectively removed him. Trying to pretend otherwise is inane.

Oh so those reports preceding the Makerfield bi-election of a leadership challenge are not a thing?

Starmer was already facing a challenge and you know it.

Or maybe it slipped your mind.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Oh so those reports preceding the Makerfield bi-election of a leadership challenge are not a thing?

Starmer was already facing a challenge and you know it.

Or maybe it slipped your mind.

Who would have challenged him ? Calamity Lammy?

He'd have seen off any challenge easily. The Burnham vote showed him exactly how despised he was. It caused MPs to lose faith and withdraw their backing of him. They deserted him. In Burnham they felt they now had a chance to keep their jobs.

With that in mind, he resigned just 4 days later yet you claim that vote was nothing to do with it.😀😀😀

Laughable even by your standards.😃😃

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Who would have challenged him ? Calamity Lammy?

He'd have seen off any challenge easily. The Burnham vote showed him exactly how despised he was. It caused MPs to lose faith and withdraw their backing of him. They deserted him. In Burnham they felt they now had a chance to keep their jobs.

With that in mind, he resigned just 4 days later yet you claim that vote was nothing to do with it.😀😀😀

Laughable even by your standards.😃😃

Calls for Starmer to be replaced preceded the Makerfield Bi-Election.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c362573l4gdo

3 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

With that in mind, he resigned just 4 days later yet you claim that vote was nothing to do with it.😀😀😀

Laughable even by your standards.😃😃

i made no such claim.

Edited June 25Jun 25 by Chomper Higgot

22 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Calls for Starmer to be replaced preceded the Makerfield Bi-Election.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c362573l4gdo

Replaced by who though from the existing talent puddle of 400 MPs? The reason that a sitting MP gave up his seat is that from that cast of clowns not a single one was deemed capable of being better than the most unpopular PM in recorded history.

9 minutes ago, James105 said:

Replaced by who though from the existing talent puddle of 400 MPs? The reason that a sitting MP gave up his seat is that from that cast of clowns not a single one was deemed capable of being better than the most unpopular PM in recorded history.

More like the 400 weren't Fabian Soc members + WEF members.

Memberships are by invitation only ............... For some reason Burnham is a long term member of both.

Enjoy the forthcoming 1% a year property tax on your home!

Edited June 25Jun 25 by BritManToo

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Calls for Starmer to be replaced preceded the Makerfield Bi-Election.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c362573l4gdo

Of course.

He's a w***** after all.

But he only listened to those calls AFTER the election. He even admitted that the people have spoken in his crybaby little pity play blubbering resignation speech. What a big girls blouse. 😀

Good riddance to the fascist little tool.

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

i made no such claim.

Yes you did.

You said the situation would have been the same if reform won. 😀

12 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Yes you did.

You said the situation would have been the same if reform won. 😀

You need to get back to Blighty note often Jonny, you’re English comprehension is failing you.

Galloway summed up Starmer's UK in his RT interview with Rick Sanchez.

He said that Margaret Thatcher hated his guts, but she never sent the cops to arrest him at the airport for hurty words.

Great interview, BTW. Worth holding your nose and watching, even if you think that you hate RT. It's not nearly as slanted as the BBC nowadays.

all polls show reform in the lead

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You need to get back to Blighty note often Jonny, you’re English comprehension is failing you.

Not until your hero tyrant Starmer has formally left office.

Most were to scared to mount a challenge anyone thinking of a challenge he sacked them. Why did Starmer Refuse to allow Burnham to run in Denton ?. His bench were plotting behind his back but were to gutless to challenge him. The first to be fired will be Reeve's followed by most of Starmers team.

40 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

Most were to scared to mount a challenge anyone thinking of a challenge he sacked them. Why did Starmer Refuse to allow Burnham to run in Denton ?. His bench were plotting behind his back but were to gutless to challenge him. The first to be fired will be Reeve's followed by most of Starmers team.

Let's hope DEI Mastermind calamity Lammy and Rachel from accounts are the first to go. Absolutely clueless grifters.

Then kick the ginger growler out of the party and send 10 Afghans and 5 Sudanese to live with Yvette "refugees welcome" Cooper in her multi million pound north London townhouse.

Then hold a general election as he has no mandate whatsoever.

Troll post using degratory terms removed @BarraMarra

Burnham's win in Makerfield hastened Starmer's departure but unless his approval ratings had improved dramatically, Starmer would not had led Labour into the next election.

In the absence of Burnham, there would have been no shortage of potential candidates to replace Starmer e.g. Streeting, Carns, Jones, Rayner, etc. Whether any of them - or Burnham - would have been a success is another matter.

Burnhan wasn't even an MP before Makerfield and the only reason he was elected to serve in the 1st place was because they threw the then sitting MP for Makerfield under the Bus.

24 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

Burnhan wasn't even an MP before Makerfield and the only reason he was elected to serve in the 1st place was because they threw the then sitting MP for Makerfield under the Bus.

The sitting MP gave up his seat for Burnham. He didn't go anywhere near a bus.