Two NATO countries on the alliance's eastern flank have warned that Russia may be preparing a limited military provocation against the Baltic states or Poland in what they believe could be an attempt to test NATO's unity rather than launch a full-scale attack.

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The warnings come as Russia faces mounting pressure from Ukraine's expanding long-range strike campaign, which has increasingly reached targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg. Western officials fear the Kremlin could seek alternative ways to shift the course of the war as its offensive in Ukraine continues to lose momentum.

On Monday, Latvia's intelligence service said it had identified signs that Russia was preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. Officials stressed they did not believe Moscow had the capability to open a second conventional front but warned of possible hybrid operations.

Intelligence warnings emerge

A senior political source from another NATO country offered a similar assessment, saying intelligence suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin was planning "something against the Baltic states." The source said Moscow could seek to test U.S. willingness to defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, some of the alliance's smallest members, as Russia struggles to achieve its objectives in Ukraine.

The warnings were not accompanied by the detailed intelligence disclosures seen before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western agencies publicly outlined Moscow's military preparations.

Fears of hybrid attacks

Latvian intelligence said Russia was more likely to carry out hybrid operations than launch a conventional assault.

According to the agency, these could include missile or drone attacks, or other limited actions intended to signal that continued Western support for Ukraine could bring direct consequences for NATO countries bordering Russia.

Security analysts say the reports reflect growing concern that the Kremlin could broaden tensions beyond Ukraine if battlefield progress continues to stall.

Keir Giles, a Russia specialist at Chatham House, said Moscow would likely seek opportunities to disrupt the current trajectory of the conflict through "horizontal escalation" by extending pressure to other countries.

Ukraine steps up pressure

Russia's vulnerabilities have also become more visible in recent days. This week, drone relay stations in Belarus reportedly stopped operating after Ukraine threatened to target them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned Belarus that the equipment was supporting Russian attacks on Ukraine.

One Telegram channel claimed authorities in Belarus's Brest and Gomel regions ordered mobile operators to dismantle the relay equipment, citing interference with grouse nesting areas.

Ukraine has steadily expanded its domestically developed long-range strike capability, enabling attacks up to 2,000 kilometres inside Russia. Last week, nearly 200 Ukrainian drones struck multiple locations around Moscow, including an oil refinery, leaving parts of the capital covered in falling oil residue.

A Western military source said there was concern Russia could respond unpredictably if Putin felt increasing pressure as the conflict reached major Russian cities.

"I cannot lie, that is a period of danger," the source said.

NATO monitors escalation risks

The latest concerns come ahead of NATO's annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, amid continued questions over the United States' long-term commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was disappointed that European allies had not permitted American aircraft to use their bases for strikes against Iran.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European countries have accused Moscow of carrying out repeated sabotage and hybrid operations. These have included firebombs hidden in DHL parcels sent through the United Kingdom, Poland and Germany during 2024.

Last September, 19 Russian decoy drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets while authorities advised residents in three eastern provinces to seek shelter.

Western governments voiced similar concerns in late 2022 after Russian setbacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region raised fears that Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons. However, no evidence emerged of preparations for such a move, and the frontline later stabilised.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 26 June 2026

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I would have thought Putin has enough on his plate with the 3 day war against Ukraine.

The Russians are coming , the Russians are coming !!

Keep it up Russia. Just imagine long range drones attacking from most sides. I'm sure the Ukraine will be glad to share their technology with the other countries that want to remain under self control.

would you mind if russia invaded europe and got rid of all the riff raff that is flooding the EU ?

that would be an acceptable comprise

28 minutes ago, Jimbolkb said:

would you mind if russia invaded europe and got rid of all the riff raff that is flooding the EU ?

that would be an acceptable comprise

As to your first question: yes, I would mind very much, as would any sane person.

And no, it would not be an acceptable compromise at all. Wanting to live under Putin’s fascist regime is a terrible idea.

And by the way, how do you know Putin’s regime wouldn’t count you as one of the riff raff? Better be careful what you wish for.

17 hours ago, webfact said:

warned that Russia may be preparing a limited military provocation against the Baltic states or Poland

It's Zelensky who has been threatening Belarus and has fallen out with Poland by honouring a Nazi collaborator.

The attacks on Moscow will only hasten the demise of what remains of Ukraine.

The war is a grinding conflict of attrition! and russia is losing !!

19 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

As to your first question: yes, I would mind very much, as would any sane person.

And no, it would not be an acceptable compromise at all. Wanting to live under Putin’s fascist regime is a terrible idea.

And by the way, how do you know Putin’s regime wouldn’t count you as one of the riff raff? Better be careful what you wish for.

rif raf, stealing, robbing raping, no I don't identify as that group

who says that your or my world view what really happens over there is true ?

you know what happened in 2014 over there ? who was shelling whom ?

putin is not invading anything like nato, not our business, you cry foul when UK or France had colonies and killed, raped those countries ? or USA playing unwanted policeman of the world ?

It's Zelensky who has been threatening Belarus and has fallen out with Poland by honouring a Nazi collaborator.

The attacks on Moscow will only hasten the demise of what remains of Ukraine.

Putin doesn't even want the rest of Ukraine, beyond Crimea and Donbass, which he already has, and for years.. But he won't have an option if Zelenskyy keeps poking the bear. He just wants a secure border and for the Ukrainians to quit killing ethnic Russkies.

@Jimbolkb "rif raf, stealing, robbing raping, no I don't identify as that group"

You don’t seem to understand that it doesn’t matter in the least what you identify as when you live under Putin’s fascist regime. What matters is what they identify you as.

47 minutes ago, impulse said:

Putin doesn't even want the rest of Ukraine, beyond Crimea and Donbass, which he already has, and for years.. But he won't have an option if Zelenskyy keeps poking the bear. He just wants a secure border and for the Ukrainians to quit killing ethnic Russkies.

Rubbish. Putin expected to control kyiv within days of invasion. Kind of similar to Trump invading Iran and expecting total unconditional surrender in 2 or 3 days.

Rubbish. Putin expected to control kyiv within days of invasion. Kind of similar to Trump invading Iran and expecting total unconditional surrender in 2 or 3 days.

Putin's initial move on Kiev was a feint to try to get Zelenskyy and his cronies to flee the city and country for their mansions around the world. It didn't work because the Neocons (and later BoJo) convinced Zelenskyy to fight on.

But he never wanted Kiev. He just wanted Zelenskyy gone. It would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, and the result would have been the same.

24 minutes ago, impulse said:

Putin's initial move on Kiev was a feint to try to get Zelenskyy and his cronies to flee the city and country for their mansions around the world. It didn't work because the Neocons (and later BoJo) convinced Zelenskyy to fight on.

But he never wanted Kiev. He just wanted Zelenskyy gone. It would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, and the result would have been the same.

Wow, what a load of BS. Of course Putin wanted Kiev, and he wanted to capture Zelensky and his whole government, so that he could put them on trial for the world to see what 'monsters' they were, and what a benevolent country Russia was to rid the world of these monsters.

The Americans offered to evacuate Zelensky and his government. Zelensky famously answered: "The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky risks his life by regularly visiting the front line to inspire his troops. Putin just hides and cowers in one of his bunkers almost all of the time, as Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia more and more.

And do you know what would really have saved hundreds of thousands of lives? If Putin hadn't decided to invade Ukraine. Simple as that.

5 hours ago, johng said:

It's Zelensky who has been threatening Belarus and has fallen out with Poland by honouring a Nazi collaborator.

The attacks on Moscow will only hasten the demise of what remains of Ukraine.

“What remains of Ukraine” has now all but isolated Crimea. “What remains of Ukraine” is taking this fight more and more to Russia, and more and more Russians feel the consequences of this unholy war that their insane leader started. “What remains of Ukraine” is fighting a fascist agressor, and fighting for their right to remain a free and sovereign country. And as far as I can tell, they’re doing a hell of a good job.

28 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

“What remains of Ukraine” is fighting a fascist agressor, and fighting for their right to remain a free and sovereign country.

A 'sovereign' country that only exists at this point with the backing of the US/EU/NATO who are using Ukraine in a proxy war to try and destroy Russia,if any of Ukraine survives it most certainly wont be a sovereign country it will be forever beholden and enslaved to those 'backers'.

P.S Ukraine is not winning the war.

Not going to happen. Russia doesn't want NATO involved in any shape or form.

19 minutes ago, johng said:

A 'sovereign' country that only exists at this point with the backing of the US/EU/NATO who are using Ukraine in a proxy war to try and destroy Russia,if any of Ukraine survives it most certainly wont be a sovereign country it will be forever beholden and enslaved to those 'backers'.

P.S Ukraine is not winning the war.

A proxy war of Russia’s own choosing. Russia started this war, unprovoked, and hadn’t expected the kind of resistance they encountered, and the kind of support Ukraine got from the West. Just a couple of huge errors in judgement on Russia’s part.

And I’m quite sure that Ukraine would much rather be beholden to the countries it receives support from, than to be conquered and enslaved (literally) by fascist Russia.

PS: Russia is not winning the war either.

30 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Not going to happen. Russia doesn't want NATO involved in any shape or form.

NATO/US/EU has been involved since the start,has been increasingly involved and is now openly talking about the need to prepare for war with Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn81x8py3j5o

13 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

And I’m quite sure that Ukraine would much rather be beholden to the countries it receives support from,

What's left, if anything of 'Ukraine' will be owned by the likes of BlackRock and Palantir

obedient slaves in their digital Panopticon just like the rest of the EU.

i dont trust the russians any more than anyone else, but russia isnt going to risk a war with NATO even not counting USA, because of math.

Italy alone has greater GDP than russia

19 minutes ago, mordothailand said:

Italy alone has greater GDP than russia

What is the GDP of Iran ? or Vietnam or Afghanistan GDP is totally irrelevant.

Russia has been at war (again) with NATO by default since probably the 2014 Maidan coup .

Do the 'math' on the nuclear warheads !!!

4 hours ago, impulse said:

Putin's initial move on Kiev was a feint to try to get Zelenskyy and his cronies to flee the city and country for their mansions around the world. It didn't work because the Neocons (and later BoJo) convinced Zelenskyy to fight on.

But he never wanted Kiev. He just wanted Zelenskyy gone. It would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, and the result would have been the same.

It’s almost funny how you Russian trolls have to twist reality into a pretzel to turn the narrative in Russia’s favor. But the simple fact is, nobody cares whether Putin “wanted Zelensky gone”; it’s not up to Putin; it’s up to the Ukrainians. Zelensky needed no convincing to stay in Kiev, as others here have pointed out, so your comment on that issue is delusional. And what would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives would have been, if Putin had never invaded.

 

The only way Putin looks better than Zelensky is riding a horse while shirtless; maybe that’s what’s turning you on.

1 hour ago, johng said:

NATO/US/EU has been involved since the start,has been increasingly involved and is now openly talking about the need to prepare for war with Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn81x8py3j5o

What's left, if anything of 'Ukraine' will be owned by the likes of BlackRock and Palantir

obedient slaves in their digital Panopticon just like the rest of the EU.

EU and US involvement doesn't equate NATO involvement. Plus involvement so far has been with materials, not with people.

44 minutes ago, Cory1848 said:

The only way Putin looks better than Zelensky is riding a horse while shirtless;

Zelensky needs to get in front of the green screen again

riding the horse while vanquishing the Russian hordes with his mighty sword of NATO/US/EU weapons 😂

4 minutes ago, stevenl said:

EU and US involvement doesn't equate NATO involvement. Plus involvement so far has been with materials, not with people.

There has been people involvement too all be it on a 'limited' scale

materials have been tanks,vehicles, aircraft, missiles ,targeting intelligence, GPS,Starlink etc etc etc in any case it has been US/EU/NATO involvement from the beginning,

+ billions of pounds/dollars/euros of cash to prop up the Ukrainian regime during the effort to dismantle the Russian state.

5 minutes ago, johng said:

There has been people involvement too all be it on a 'limited' scale

materials have been tanks,vehicles, aircraft, missiles ,targeting intelligence, GPS,Starlink etc etc etc in any case it has been US/EU/NATO involvement from the beginning,

+ billions of pounds/dollars/euros of cash to prop up the Ukrainian regime during the effort to dismantle the Russian state.

Putin is systematically dismantling the Russian state.

29 minutes ago, Mr Awesome said:

Putin is systematically dismantling the Russian state.

I think the Russian state has strengthened under the 'Putin regime'

35 minutes ago, Mr Awesome said:

Putin is systematically dismantling the Russian state.

I think that Ukraine has a large helping hand in that.

6 minutes ago, johng said:

I think the Russian state has strengthened under the 'Putin regime'

You mean it has strengthened it's opposition to the dictator.

46 minutes ago, johng said:

I think the Russian state has strengthened under the 'Putin regime'

The fascist Russian regime has certainly strengthened its stranglehold on Russia, that much is certain.