On 8/12/2026 at 4:33 PM, Cameroni said:

Gold seems to be breaking out and is bullish again. Exciting times.

Will it go back to the 5700 vicinity or will it meander and correct?

I think gold will be bullish for a while and will go back to 5700 in due course. Especially when this US Iran war ends and oil falls all the fundamentals line up for another bull run for gold.

All good at present but be careful.

Bond yields have broken higher and look ready to go up further.

The us dollar has a reverse head and and shoulders pattern and could break a lot higher. Although in my opinion it will be short lived.

IMHO, it is still very likely and could take a couple of months that would hit gold.

It would not take much on the iran front to cause that. But there is optimism that oman and iran may make a deal for control of the hormuz.

With the recent us data including yesterday and today, gold could currently go higher. If you know the charts , 4500 is important resistance. However i think nearer 4600 is likely.

Its been a very quick big run up. Momentum and moving averages suggest there will be a correction.

Be aware that seasonality in gold peaks near end of august and it falls to a low at end of september.

10 minutes ago, jojothai said:

All good at present but be careful.

Bond yields have broken higher and look ready to go up further.

The us dollar has a reverse head and and shoulders pattern and could break a lot higher. Although in my opinion it will be short lived.

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IMHO, it is still very likely and could take a couple of months that would hit gold.

It would not take much on the iran front to cause that. But there is optimism that oman and iran may make a deal for control of the hormuz.

With the recent us data including yesterday and today, gold could currently go higher. If you know the charts , 4500 is important resistance. However i think nearer 4600 is likely.

Its been a very quick big run up. Momentum and moving averages suggest there will be a correction.

Be aware that seasonality in gold peaks near end of august and it falls to a low at end of september.

Yes, it's looking like it's correcting somewhat now. Maybe a bit of profit taking after the recent bullish trend.

Core PPI figures were pretty good, but that's not causing gold to rally. The war clearly had to end for that to happen. It may well take a few months. But gold moves 1-2% a day, it could be back 5700 in around two weeks if it gets a fundamental reason to soar high. A shame it's not happening yet.

On 8/13/2026 at 5:07 AM, FlorC said:

I want silver to go up too.

I guess the silver deficit problem was far overblown.

A lot of silver in data centers and weapons and solar panels , still silver half the price of its peak.

If there is still a growing deficit in silver , how is it possible to still buy silver

at these prices (+ the premium) ?

The Silver defict has been reduced by major trading houses. (sorry, have not saved the sources). Also, there are major efforts made to replace Silver by new Copper applications.

I am looking at the Gold chart, especially between october and january. Lot's of people have bought into the last phase of the bull market. Always under the motto "You can't go wrong with Gold".

Many of them will be happy to sell, once they see their "break even" price again. To me, that means heavy overhead resistence that must be overcome. Therefore, I expect a relatively slow recovery. Nothing comared to "before".

Plus: My online trading platform charges a "financing fee" of 5% per year to maintain a Gold long position in US Dollars. Calculated daily. And this for a non interst bearing investment, food for thaught.

44 minutes ago, swissie said:

I am looking at the Gold chart, especially between october and january. Lot's of people have bought into the last phase of the bull market. Always under the motto "You can't go wrong with Gold".

Many of them will be happy to sell, once they see their "break even" price again. To me, that means heavy overhead resistence that must be overcome. Therefore, I expect a relatively slow recovery. Nothing comared to "before".

Plus: My online trading platform charges a "financing fee" of 5% per year to maintain a Gold long position in US Dollars. Calculated daily. And this for a non interst bearing investment, food for thaught.

Well there is a lot of hype and chatter about Gold having reached a bottom. A number of people will be interested to go long again. But I think until this war is ended Gold will not be able to return to former glory, simply because the oil price won't go down until then.

Having said that September is a heavy buying season for Gold, so let's see next month.

Gold got way ahead of itself, over 5600 i think, but i like it, 4300 is tempting would not buy above 4500 at moment, i am looking further than the wars, they are not ending anytime soon, with Japan taking billions out of the US and back to their bonds, who is buying the trillions the US needsto fund itself , only massive manipulation the oil and currency markets are keeping a lid on things. there is no way oil can be trading at 80, at some point in the next 3-4 months the oil shortage will hit. i hold gold long term but only about 7% of my portfolio

8 minutes ago, howerde said:

Gold got way ahead of itself, over 5600 i think, but i like it, 4300 is tempting would not buy above 4500 at moment, i am looking further than the wars, they are not ending anytime soon, with Japan taking billions out of the US and back to their bonds, who is buying the trillions the US needsto fund itself , only massive manipulation the oil and currency markets are keeping a lid on things. there is no way oil can be trading at 80, at some point in the next 3-4 months the oil shortage will hit. i hold gold long term but only about 7% of my portfolio

I'm terrified China will attack Taiwan. There's a lot of chatter about this now. If that happens, it would again be a problem for gold.

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

I'm terrified China will attack Taiwan. There's a lot of chatter about this now. If that happens, it would again be a problem for gold.

I see it another way, China has no need to attack Taiwan, for what reason?, the people are Chinese and they trade together, again the way i see it, is that the USA are desperate to curtail Chinas economic growth, so need an excuse either Taiwan or some islands off the Philippines, of course there are they billions to be made selling arms to Taiwan, so you have to make out a bogey man, all we can do is spread our risk, i have increased my short term treasury holdings and UK gilts.

23 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

I'm terrified China will attack Taiwan. There's a lot of chatter about this now. If that happens, it would again be a problem for gold.

Why ?

I'm sure glad I filled up the wife's 'piggybank' decades ago!

1 hour ago, swissie said:

Why ?

Because if China were to invade Taiwan this would further deepen the chip and storage supply issues, which would cause inflation to go up further. This would in turn increase the risk of the Fed increasing interest rates to strengthen the dollar, which as we know causes gold to fall, as higher interest rates on bonds means money goes there instead of gold.

There would also be a strong possibility of the US getting involved, in which case we would again see the dollar soar, as we did with Iran.

4 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Having said that September is a heavy buying season for Gold, so let's see next month.

I know a few people who seem to think that gold goes up in September and i had to correct them. I do not know where the misconception comes from, maybe the last two years only.

The seasonality on gold last 16 years is top in early April and early September, bottom end of June and November.

My subscriptions do not give a XAU/USD seasonality, they do it based on the GLD fund that mirrors gold price.

I attach the seasonality chart from one of the top US advisory systems (last version from early July) and the seasonality table from Barchart.com.

You will see on the Barchart table that September has 11 falls out 16 years and 5 rises. Seasonality does not mean it will follow every year as you can see the variation each year.

The last two years was exceptional for September with big rises two years. Its abnormal compared to history.

One big thing to note in the seasonality is that from say end of November to end of April gives on average about a 7% gain.

Gold bugs should all know the Indian and Chinese buying cycles and it’s why December to march / April normally gives the highest chance of gain.

I currently think a next top will be in one or two weeks barring serious escalation of the war in Iran before then. Jackson hole as mentioned by another poster is a possible problem.

My short-term chart target is resistance just above 4500, possibly 4550 to 4570.

Then possibly a fall back to near previous lows, IF US bond yields rise further and the dollar goes up. That’s not a certainty but IMHO the charts are pointing that way.

It does not matter what the Fed thinks if the market forces rates higher.

I do agree that the upside target is ultimately higher,

but there are potentially more speed bumps downwards that could unsettle some investors.

18 minutes ago, jojothai said:

I currently think a next top will be in one or two weeks

You think Gold will hit a new top in one or two weeks? Above 5700?

The seasonality of Gold and high returns in September I think are due to the Indians buying up gold then for their autumn wedding season.

Edited August 14Aug 14 by Cameroni

14 hours ago, Cameroni said:

You think Gold will hit a new top in one or two weeks? Above 5700?

The seasonality of Gold and high returns in September I think are due to the Indians buying up gold then for their autumn wedding season.

I did say a next top, and in my opinion it may be just above the 4500 level that seems to be stated by the tipsters.

Extremely unlikely we can get to 5700 again until well into the next bull run that usually starts late november, but if we go back down to the recent lows then i think it unlikely we get much past 5000 this year I will be very pleased if we can get to 5700 by next march/ april.

I do not know the source of your chart and period of time. The two sources i have flatly contradict the chart for a 16 year period in many ways. I do not understand how march is negative. I only see trends positive then.

The barchart info can be checked by using tradingview with a one monthly time period on XAUUSD to see which is correct. I will personally do so and let you know.

The indian autumn wedding season in september seems to be a myth that a few people have stated to me.

On a search with AI i find the main buying gold season in india is later.

Edited August 15Aug 15 by jojothai
Corrected spelling mistake

53 minutes ago, jojothai said:

I did say a next top, and in my opinion it may be just above the 4500 level that seems to be stated by the tipsters.

Extremely unlikely we can get to 5700 again until well into the next bull run that usually starts late november, but if we go back down to the recent lows then i think it unlikely we get much past 5000 this year I will be very pleased if we can get to 5700 by next march/ april.

I do not know the source of your chart and period of time. The two sources i have flatly contradict the chart for a 16 year period in many ways. I do not understand how march is negative. I only see trends positive then.

The barchart info can be checked by using tradingview with a one monthly time period on XAUUSD to see which is correct. I will personally do so and let you know.

The indian autumn wedding season in september seems to be a myth that a few people have stated to me.

On a search with AI i find the main buying gold season in india is later.

Looking at this in more detail on Trading View it looks like 2025 and 2024 did have this peak in September, but indeed there is a bit of variance in the different years.

7 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Looking at this in more detail on Trading View it looks like 2025 and 2024 did have this peak in September, but indeed there is a bit of variance in the different years.

I am not here to challenge anyone you or anybody else. Facts arrew facts.

I have no idea how anybody gave you that chart.
Its ludicrous as below.
I know how bad social media is. I see so much crap its unbeleivable.
They are portraying just what they want.
I do sometimes respond to put them in their place, but stopped doing that unless i see something ourtrageous like the USA mid term election freak on facebook being posted earlier thatv was crap.
Do not trust anything you see unless you check it.
The chart you have has no semblence to history.
Go to trading view and monthly performance XAU USD.
In the last 16 Years there are only two years with that kind of september stellar performance.
2024 and 2025. + 5.24 % and +11.91 %. But over 16 years, 11 years were down average is -1.1 %. Only 4 years were up.
In the two years 2024 and 2025 where your chart show big rise in september,
March XAU had +9.29 and + 9.30%.
So the chart you have must have incorrect data. If its based only on two years of september the march is totally wrong.
I do note that March over 16 years, excluding 2026, has 8 positive and only really positive in the last 4 years. So its reflecting the bull run.
I would need to check back to 1972 to see longer trends.
I have given the best advice, so from my perspective this post is ended,
However other people reading this should note.
Do not trust anything on social media unless you check.

Edited August 15Aug 15 by jojothai
add some info

20 minutes ago, jojothai said:

I am not here to challenge anyone you or anybody else. Facts arrew facts.

I have no idea how anybody gave you that chart.
Its ludicrous as below.
I know how bad social media is. I see so much crap its unbeleivable.
They are portraying just what they want.
I do sometimes respond to put them in their place, but stopped doing that unless i see something ourtrageous like the USA mid term election freak on facebook being posted earlier thatv was crap.
Do not trust anything you see unless you check it.
The chart you have has no semblence to history.
Go to trading view and monthly performance XAU USD.
In the last 16 Years there are only two years with that kind of september stellar performance.
2024 and 2025. + 5.24 % and +11.91 %. But over 16 years, 11 years were down average is -1.1 %. Only 4 years were up.
In the two years 2024 and 2025 where your chart show big rise in september,
March XAU had +9.29 and + 9.30%.
So the chart you have must have incorrect data. If its based only on two years of september the march is totally wrong.
I do note that March over 16 years, excluding 2026, has 8 positive and only really positive in the last 4 years. So its reflecting the bull run.
I would need to check back to 1972 to see longer trends.
I have given the best advice, so from my perspective this post is ended,
However other people reading this should note.
Do not trust anything on social media unless you check.

Ummm, that chart is not from social media, it's from Tradingview. It says so on the chart.

10 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Ummm, that chart is not from social media, it's from Tradingview. It says so on the chart.

Thanks for clarifying.

The figures i got from trading view XAUUSD monthly since 2010 for both march and september every year are very similar to the barchart figures for GLD. So IMHO use the barchart table.

Its hard to understand how tradingview would get it so wrong.

Can you please tell me where you find it.

I have the essential plan in tradingview.

I will check and if i see the same i will complain to tell them its wrong.

30 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Thanks for clarifying.

The figures i got from trading view XAUUSD monthly since 2010 for both march and september every year are very similar to the barchart figures for GLD. So IMHO use the barchart table.

Its hard to understand how tradingview would get it so wrong.

Can you please tell me where you find it.

I have the essential plan in tradingview.

I will check and if i see the same i will complain to tell them its wrong.

It is in the the historical seasonal performance section.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/seasonals/

3 hours ago, Cameroni said:

It is in the the historical seasonal performance section.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/seasonals/

Thanks Cameroni, in tradingview i can see graphs overall giving daily values and a table of values with monthly gain but not the bar chart by month that you have shown. Can you please tell me where to find that please. Maybe you have a higher subscription.
It would be great to know.
I note that the graph in trading view gives the performance against each day. But i cannot see anything telling me what the percentage figures are for. Its clearly not a daily gain/fall.

The monthly values look to match what i have previously.
If we cannot trust the monthly bar chart shown by trading view then its not difficult to create the chart if i can download the monthly data.
I could not download it from tradingview with my subscription, however i Can get the data from barcharts with my subscription.

I have however captured the data from the tradingview table in the seasonality and pasted into excel. Then i can create the barchart.
I will do it later today or tomorrow. Then i can send you the result.

Edited August 16Aug 16 by jojothai
change text to say i captured data

I posted the link for you.

16 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

I posted the link for you.

Yes, i used the link thanks. But cannot see how to get the barchart.
I have looked all over the page. Must be a setting somewhere, but i cant find it.
The barchart earlier does not show trading view. Did it come from tradingview?

Edited August 16Aug 16 by jojothai
add text

Attached are the seasonality barcharts for last 15 years 2011 to 2025 and 5 years 2021 to 2025.
Based on the tradingview data.
The big difference in the recent 5 year chart is that
In 2021-2025, January had a drop 2 years unusual, March had unusual 3 years of high gains, September had unusual 2 years of high gains. November had unusual 3 years of high gains.
If you want to use seasonality within a short time span, when there is a big bullrun, then you may find things do not match well in the future.
As noted earlier, the seasonality barchart posted originally has a problem where March vs September in the chart are at odds with my information. My 2021-2025 chart shows the difference using the recent time periods if thats what the data was for.
Did the barchart come from Tradingview?

Amazing how many "technical analisys tools" have evolved over time. It's a "smorgasboard", take your pick. TA is based on market behaviour in the past, assuming it will repeat. Sometimes it even works.

But let's face it, it's not the chart readers that got fabulously rich, it's the other guys, the "fundamentalists".

At the end of the day there are only 2 factors left that really matter:

- Supply and Demand.

- Human psychology (absolutely unpredictable).

PS: I have absolutely nothing against "chart readers", it's just I woulden't want my daughter to marry one of them. 😉

Well, I hope you all made money. Gold has broken out and I am in a wonderful trade now.

It should hit 4700 in due course.

4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Well, I hope you all made money. Gold has broken out and I am in a wonderful trade now.

It should hit 4700 in due course.

The only reason gold rises today is because the US is buying back treasury bonds, to manipulate interest rates.

12 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

The only reason gold rises today is because the US is buying back treasury bonds, to manipulate interest rates.

Very true, the yields for bonds are going down, so the dollar is going down.

Wonderful.

On 8/12/2026 at 12:34 PM, swissie said:

Markets expect that the inflation rate has peaked and therefore interest rates have peaked. Rising interest rates could stop the fledgling bull market in it's tracks.

A little "wash out" today. The "Jackson Hole" comments would indicate that interest rates might be heading higher, as opposed to market hopes. As I mentioned above, interest rates are a major factor with regard to precious metals.

Still, I see todays action as a "knee jerk reaction". Some will find it as a buying opportunity.