Conservative alarm: Is Trump leaving NATO exposed?

Nick Catoggio

A conservative commentator has issued a stark warning that Donald Trump may have created an opening for Vladimir Putin to confront NATO — with the US potentially reluctant or unable to respond with full force.

Nick Catoggio, writing in The Dispatch, argues that Trump has managed to achieve something previous US presidents failed to do: create circumstances in which Russia could consider a direct confrontation with the rest of NATO.

“Strange as it may sound, in many ways this is an opportune moment for Putin to confront the West,” Catoggio wrote. His warning came as Trump’s CIA chief raised concerns that the Russian leader is considering the prospect of attacking NATO and could act soon.

Why would Moscow consider such a gamble now? Catoggio points to an “overextended White House” that would be forced by circumstances to think twice before committing America to another war.

He also highlights the US military’s current weapons position. Catoggio cited a Wall Street Journal report saying Precision Strike Missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems would be crucial if American forces had to repel a Russian land invasion.

But the US has already used large numbers of key weapons during the war with Iran. “Thanks to Trump’s folly in Iran, we’re a little short on both,” Catoggio wrote, referring to precision missiles and Patriot air-defence interceptors.

The warning goes beyond military stockpiles. Catoggio argues that Trump has cultivated what he calls “fecklessness and ideological sympathies” towards Putin and has long sought détente with authoritarian Russia.

“Trump has always craved détente with authoritarian Russia; no president since the Cold War has been more reluctant to confront Moscow militarily than he is,” Catoggio said.

He also argues that Trump could be vulnerable to Russian attempts to use escalation as a means of forcing the US to back away.

Catoggio pointed to Trump’s repeated warnings during his last presidential campaign that the Ukraine war could become a prelude to World War III, as well as his confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office in 2025.

Europe could create another flashpoint. Catoggio said Trump is “chronically aggrieved at Europe”, particularly after NATO allies declined to join the US war in Iran.

He suggested it was possible Trump could respond to a Russian invasion of Poland by questioning why America should defend allies that had not supported Washington. Catoggio even raised the possibility of Trump seeking a territorial deal with Moscow in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The economic consequences could also shape any response. Catoggio argued Trump might refuse to support a military operation to eject Russian troops from NATO territory because he feared the damage a European war could inflict on the US economy.

“It wouldn’t be the first time that he sold out to a rogue regime to spare himself a presidential legacy of economic hardship,” he said.

Catoggio ultimately warned that a Russian attack could expose what he sees as a deeper problem. After what he described as Trump’s “show of weakness in Iran”, another confrontation with Putin could become an even more consequential test of American leadership.

His prediction? Trump would probably split the difference, reducing US support without abandoning it altogether. “My guess is that the president would approach a Russian incursion into NATO territory the way he’s approached U.S. backing for Ukraine, splitting the baby by reducing America’s support without ending it altogether,” Catoggio concluded.

Conservative goes ballistic as Trump paves the way for an attack on NATO