Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[LaoPo]

Where's the US$ heading to ?

Some excerpts from the link below:

* Even after the dollar lost 34 percent since 2001, the biggest investors and most accurate forecasters say it will weaken further as home sales fall and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The dollar plummeted to its lowest ever last week against the euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan and the cheapest in 26 years against the British pound.

* ``We've told all of our clients that if you only had one idea, one investment, it would be to buy an investment in a non- dollar currency,'' said Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, and manager of the world's biggest bond fund.

* BNP Paribas chief currency strategist Hans-Guenter Redeker, the most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster last quarter in a Bloomberg survey, said the dollar may drop to $1.50 per euro by year-end.

* The dollar will rise to $1.43 per euro this year and $1.35 by the end of 2008, according to the median estimate in the survey.

* Buffett, whom Forbes in April ranked as the world's third- richest person behind Bill Gates and Carlos Slim, told reporters in South Korea last month that he is bearish on the U.S. currency.

``We still are negative on the dollar relative to most major currencies, so we bought stocks in companies that earn their money in other currencies,'' Buffett said Oct. 25.

* `Moving to Asia'

Jim Rogers, a former partner of investor George Soros, said last month he's selling his house and all his possessions in the U.S. currency to buy China's yuan.

``The dollar is collapsing,'' Rogers said last week in an interview. ``I'm moving to Asia because moving to Asia now is like moving to New York in 1907 or London in 1807. It's the wave of the future.''

* The five-year, 67 percent drop against the Canadian dollar has made it cheaper for fans from Toronto to drive the 110 miles (177 kilometers) to Orchard Park, New York, to watch the Buffalo Bills play football.

* The dollar's drop also makes American goods cheaper abroad. U.S. exports were a record $138.2 billion in August, government data show. Net exports added 0.93 percentage point to U.S. gross domestic product last quarter, offsetting a 1.05 percentage point drag from housing, government data show.

* Wealthy clients at San Francisco-based Union Bank of California have doubled their deposits in foreign currencies to $60 million the past two months as a hedge against a decline, said Bradley Shairson, head of currency and derivatives at the bank.

* U.S. investors bought $198 billion in foreign securities this year through August, 72 percent more than in the same period last year, Treasury Department data show.

* That's the same strategy as sovereign wealth funds run by the largest exporters and oil producers, including China, Singapore and Qatar, said Stephen Jen, head of currency research at New York-based Morgan Stanley.

The funds may grow to $17.5 trillion by 2017 from $2.5 trillion now and shift more than $500 billion out of the dollar in the next three years in search of better returns, he said.

``We're all thinking about diversifying out of the dollar,'' said Jen, who is based in London. ``It's a very logical thing.''

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aUdDmoYyZhdY

WHO KNOWS ?

LaoPo

[johnnyk]

People have caught on to America's debt situation, cowboy capitalism and financial incompetence/corruption and are simply abandoning US paper.

[sleepyjohn]

This all reminds me of when I saw someone lighting their cigarette with a $ bill on the front of Newsweek two or three years ago. That was the signal. There was an almost immediate rise in the $/GBP of about 20 cents. Are we going to get another 20 cents now?

Disclosure holding $ 25%

Why do I have any $ at all?.....to stop me being a speculator or at least hedge it partially. One of the "pundits" on these forums told me a couple of years ago the Euro was finished. I'm glad I didn't listen too hard. Now it's the $ that's finished....well maybe it is.

Edited November 6, 2007 by sleepyjohn

[Mighty Mouse]

George Soros has been against the greenback for a few years now. Here is the latest article.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after decades of overspending.

"We have borrowed an awful lot of money and now the bill is coming to us," he said during a lecture at the New York University, also adding that the war on terror "has thrown America out of the rails."

Asked whether a recession was inevitable, Soros said: "I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing."

Famous for his speculative attack on the Bank of England that made him more than $1 billion, Soros declined to nominate which currencies are more vulnerable currently. He also declined to comment specifically on the dollar.

"I know exactly where the currencies are going to but I'm not going to tell that to you," he told the audience.

Last week, investment guru Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with Soros in the 1970s, recommended selling the dollar as well as U.S. investment banks and U.S. housing stocks.

Soros said that, for now, China is the "absolute winner" in economic terms, and will continue to see its economy soaring during the next few years.

"Now it is going through this fantastic transformation but in 10 years time I think you may well have a financial crisis in China," he said.

[george]

Dollar Falls to Record as Bank Losses May Prompt Fed Rate Cut

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on speculation finance industry losses will prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for a third time this year.

The currency declined versus all 16 of the most-actively traded currencies except the yen as Fed Governor Randall Kroszner said conditions for subprime-mortgage borrowers may get worse. It dropped the most against the currency of New Zealand, where the benchmark rate is 3.75 percentage points higher than in the U.S.

``The rolling credit crisis and lack of confidence in the U.S. financial sector is heightening fears for the broader U.S. economy,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist in Sydney at ABN Amro Holding NV, the biggest Dutch bank. ``The broader outlook for the dollar still looks very challenged.''

The currency fell to an all-time low of $1.4531 per euro before trading at $1.4521 as of 8 a.m. in London from $1.4469 late yesterday in New York. It may drop to $1.48 by year-end, Gibbs forecast.

Against Australia's currency, the dollar fell to 92.54 U.S. cents compared with 92.07 late in New York. It slid to 77.28 cents versus New Zealand's dollar from 76.98 cents. It was at $2.0875 against the pound, near a 26-year low of $2.0897. The dollar traded at 114.71 yen from 114.55 yen.

Dollar Assets

``Conditions for subprime borrowers have the potential to get worse before they get better,'' Kroszner told a conference in the Washington area yesterday. Demand for dollar-denominated assets has waned as loans to home buyers with poor credit histories soured. CNBC reported that Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by value, will write down $3 billion because of the credit market slump.

The yen fell against all 16 of the most-actively traded currencies as rising Asian stocks renewed investors' demand to buy higher-yielding assets financed by loans in Japan, where the benchmark borrowing cost is 0.5 percent.

Japan's currency dropped as the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index of regional shares climbed 0.3 percent.

``With stocks rising, speculative players are buying'' major currencies against the yen, said Toru Tanaka, senior manager of treasury and foreign exchange in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading company. ``Those investors have a lot of money and represent risk appetite.''

The yen declined to 166.33 per euro from 165.73 yesterday, and may fall to 166.80 per euro today, Tanaka forecast.

Yields Narrow

U.S. Treasuries offer the lowest yields among the Group of Seven nations after Japan as the Fed cut interest rates last week for the second time, sending the dollar lower this quarter against all of the 16 most-active currencies.

The dollar will slide further as the prospect of lower Fed rates prompts investors to shift assets into higher-yielding currencies, according to BNP Paribas SA.

``People no longer see the U.S. dollar as a high-yielding currency,'' said Sharada Selvanathan, currency strategist in Hong Kong at BNP Paribas, the largest French bank. ``They'd rather switch into other currencies where the economic fundamentals are better and where they can also gain higher yield,'' such as Australia's dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates a quarter- percentage point to 6.75 percent tomorrow, according to all 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

No Alarm

The spread on yields for two-year German government bonds over similar-maturity Treasuries widened to 25 basis points, near the highest since April 2004, from 15 basis points a week earlier. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The falling dollar isn't cause for alarm and part of a ``global rebalancing process,'' according to David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``The dollar is no lower today than it was in 1997 -- we don't remember that being a particular Armageddon-type time period.''

Interest-rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 62 percent chance the Fed will reduce its overnight target lending rate between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent on Dec. 11 compared with 6 percent a month ago.

The euro may extend gains against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal rates may rise further to rein in inflation from a two-year high.

The ECB will keep its key rate at 4 percent on Nov. 8, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Trichet will meet the press after the bank's decision. The euro has gained 23 percent since the ECB raised rates eight times, starting in December 2005.

``Money will continue to flow into the euro,'' said Kengo Suzuki, currency strategist in Tokyo at Shinko Securities Co., which agreed to be taken over by Japan's second-largest publicly traded lender Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ``The ECB will want to keep the option of raising rates.''

The euro may rise to $1.50 by year-end, he forecast.

--Bloomberg 2007-11-06

Related link:

Thai Baht rates: http://baht.thaivisa.com

[churchill]

When this was discussed about 6 months ago baht/$ exchange rates I suggested buying Gold - I still think even now with gold approaching $820 that would be a wise move

[sibeymai]

What we have seen is a gradual slide of the US$ over a prolonged period. But historically there have been a number of events which periodically have caused dramatic economic changes virtually overnight. The subprime crisis was touted as a possibility but it looks to have run out of steam. The war in Iraq has a lot to do with the current slide but this has happened gradually as the US debt has mounted.

I'm curious about what forum member's might regard as a potential trigger for a more dramatic and sudden shift in the US$. Something in the league of a world event. Where will it come from ? When ? US bombing Iran or North Korea ? Another Eastern European crisis ? What about South America and Africa ? Could China's intense interest in Africa cause friction with the US and Europe ? Something else ? Maybe a domestic US event or crisis. Any ideas ?

[chiang mai]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

[sonicdragon]

a sexy model on bloomberg or cnbc says she dont want to be paid in usa dollars. this means dollar likely has hit bottom. models not known for financial acumen.

she getting paid for he looks not her brainpower..............lol.

You'll probably find it's her advisors at Julius Baer and LGT that who are giving her that advice.

Still, it's quite a bizarre thing to report and completely typical of the kinds of stories that mark a top/bottom :-)

[sibeymai]

a sexy model on bloomberg or cnbc says she dont want to be paid in usa dollars. this means dollar likely has hit bottom. models not known for financial acumen.

she getting paid for he looks not her brainpower..............lol.

You'll probably find it's her advisors at Julius Baer and LGT that who are giving her that advice.

Still, it's quite a bizarre thing to report and completely typical of the kinds of stories that mark a top/bottom :-)

Elle MacPherson hasn't done too badly for herself, but an exception I'll admit.

[sonicdragon]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

And what was his reasoning behind that prophecy ?

I have a hard time making a bullish story for the US$. But the thing is, there are few alternatives. All paper currencies are being debased, some more than others of course. I have reluctantly been in the EUR for a while now, but the euro economy has many structural problems. I'm also in the GBP (also not a pretty picture), AUD, Yen and CNY. Regrettably I missed the CAD rally alltogether. Have recently started reducing EUR and GBP in favour of CHF and SGD. And of course I have considerable exposure to precious metals and agricultural commodities.

[LaoPo]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

And what was his reasoning behind that prophecy ?

I have a hard time making a bullish story for the US$. But the thing is, there are few alternatives. All paper currencies are being debased, some more than others of course. I have reluctantly been in the EUR for a while now, but the euro economy has many structural problems. I'm also in the GBP (also not a pretty picture), AUD, Yen and CNY. Regrettably I missed the CAD rally alltogether. Have recently started reducing EUR and GBP in favour of CHF and SGD. And of course I have considerable exposure to precious metals and agricultural commodities.

misquote, sorry

LaoPo

Edited November 6, 2007 by LaoPo

[chiang mai]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

And what was his reasoning behind that prophecy ?

I have a hard time making a bullish story for the US$. But the thing is, there are few alternatives. All paper currencies are being debased, some more than others of course. I have reluctantly been in the EUR for a while now, but the euro economy has many structural problems. I'm also in the GBP (also not a pretty picture), AUD, Yen and CNY. Regrettably I missed the CAD rally alltogether. Have recently started reducing EUR and GBP in favour of CHF and SGD. And of course I have considerable exposure to precious metals and agricultural commodities.

I believe he was saying that the liquidity squeeze had further to go and this would in turn require further interest rate cuts - you can read his reports at www.rbs.com/economics. He's a fairly influential figure in the UK monetary field and reports monthly on a range of topics.

Edited November 6, 2007 by chiang mai

[sonicdragon]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

And what was his reasoning behind that prophecy ?

I have a hard time making a bullish story for the US$. But the thing is, there are few alternatives. All paper currencies are being debased, some more than others of course. I have reluctantly been in the EUR for a while now, but the euro economy has many structural problems. I'm also in the GBP (also not a pretty picture), AUD, Yen and CNY. Regrettably I missed the CAD rally alltogether. Have recently started reducing EUR and GBP in favour of CHF and SGD. And of course I have considerable exposure to precious metals and agricultural commodities.

I believe he was saying that the liquidity squeeze had further to go and this would in turn require further interest rate cuts - you can read his reports at www.rbs.com/economics. He's a fairly influential figure in the UK monetary field and reports monthly on a range of topics.

Yep, and he wrote quite an interesting book on the vanquishing of inflation, which I can recommend. I couldn't find the report mentioned - if you happen to have a direct link that would be cool. The argument of further rate cuts is fine (I presume you mean US rate cuts) but how does that translate into a 25% fall in cable after hitting 2.20 ? Is that on the basis of pound weakness of general dollar strength ?

[chiang mai]

RBS economist Roget Bootle in his past newsletter for clients suggested that the £/$ could reach 2.20 but that if it did so the bounce will be in the region of 1.60/1.70 - seems about right to me.

And what was his reasoning behind that prophecy ?

I have a hard time making a bullish story for the US$. But the thing is, there are few alternatives. All paper currencies are being debased, some more than others of course. I have reluctantly been in the EUR for a while now, but the euro economy has many structural problems. I'm also in the GBP (also not a pretty picture), AUD, Yen and CNY. Regrettably I missed the CAD rally alltogether. Have recently started reducing EUR and GBP in favour of CHF and SGD. And of course I have considerable exposure to precious metals and agricultural commodities.

I believe he was saying that the liquidity squeeze had further to go and this would in turn require further interest rate cuts - you can read his reports at www.rbs.com/economics. He's a fairly influential figure in the UK monetary field and reports monthly on a range of topics.

Yep, and he wrote quite an interesting book on the vanquishing of inflation, which I can recommend. I couldn't find the report mentioned - if you happen to have a direct link that would be cool. The argument of further rate cuts is fine (I presume you mean US rate cuts) but how does that translate into a 25% fall in cable after hitting 2.20 ? Is that on the basis of pound weakness of general dollar strength ?

Look in the RBS library under exchange rates or perhaps it was a special report - I'll take a look and see if I have a copy on my backup drive. His logic for the bounce was the same as everyone else's and that is the US elections will signal a change in policy and that will cause USD to strengthen. Inevitable rate cuts in the UK at some point will also improve the USD to GBP position.

[LaoPo]

Dollar Trades Near Record Low Against Euro

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg)

Excerpt:

The U.S. currency traded at $1.4568 per euro at 7:54 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4557 late yesterday, when it fell to an all- time low of $1.4570. The Australian dollar rose to 93.10 U.S. cents from 92.88 U.S. cents late in New York after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates a quarter point to 6.75 percent and said inflation has increased. The yen was steady at 166.99 per euro and 114.67 against the dollar.

&

The U.S. currency fell to a record low of $1.0869 against its Canadian counterpart, and a 26-year low of $2.0907 against the pound yesterday.

Rest here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[wasabi]

This sucks why couldn't this happen years ago when I wasn't interested in international travel, what effect does a falling dollar really have on your average American who just wants to go to Disneyland and buy a Blue Ray DVD player? It seems like we travelers and expats bare the brunt of the pain.

[thaiclan]

a sexy model on bloomberg or cnbc says she dont want to be paid in usa dollars. this means dollar likely has hit bottom. models not known for financial acumen.

she getting paid for he looks not her brainpower..............lol.

True, but bearing in mind she earned $30million to June this year you can be sure there are a host of financial brains on her payroll.

[steffi]

If the US attacks Iran and the UK/Europe condones such action and possibly if they don't Hezbolah and their agents all over europe will surely inflict some economic pain on the region. The US is going to act to push up Oil prices and then justify an Iran invasion as a means to control the price of Oil.

What we have seen is a gradual slide of the US$ over a prolonged period. But historically there have been a number of events which periodically have caused dramatic economic changes virtually overnight. The subprime crisis was touted as a possibility but it looks to have run out of steam. The war in Iraq has a lot to do with the current slide but this has happened gradually as the US debt has mounted.

I'm curious about what forum member's might regard as a potential trigger for a more dramatic and sudden shift in the US$. Something in the league of a world event. Where will it come from ? When ? US bombing Iran or North Korea ? Another Eastern European crisis ? What about South America and Africa ? Could China's intense interest in Africa cause friction with the US and Europe ? Something else ? Maybe a domestic US event or crisis. Any ideas ?

[sleepyjohn]

If the US attacks Iran and the UK/Europe condones such action and possibly if they don't Hezbolah and their agents all over europe will surely inflict some economic pain on the region. The US is going to act to push up Oil prices and then justify an Iran invasion as a means to control the price of Oil.

What we have seen is a gradual slide of the US$ over a prolonged period. But historically there have been a number of events which periodically have caused dramatic economic changes virtually overnight. The subprime crisis was touted as a possibility but it looks to have run out of steam. The war in Iraq has a lot to do with the current slide but this has happened gradually as the US debt has mounted.

I'm curious about what forum member's might regard as a potential trigger for a more dramatic and sudden shift in the US$. Something in the league of a world event. Where will it come from ? When ? US bombing Iran or North Korea ? Another Eastern European crisis ? What about South America and Africa ? Could China's intense interest in Africa cause friction with the US and Europe ? Something else ? Maybe a domestic US event or crisis. Any ideas ?

As a broad generalisation stocks fall 10% on a major (nasty) world event , but interestingly 6 to 12 weeks later are 10% above where they were in thefirst place.

I wonder how currencies compare.

[chiang mai]

If the US attacks Iran and the UK/Europe condones such action and possibly if they don't Hezbolah and their agents all over europe will surely inflict some economic pain on the region. The US is going to act to push up Oil prices and then justify an Iran invasion as a means to control the price of Oil.

What we have seen is a gradual slide of the US$ over a prolonged period. But historically there have been a number of events which periodically have caused dramatic economic changes virtually overnight. The subprime crisis was touted as a possibility but it looks to have run out of steam. The war in Iraq has a lot to do with the current slide but this has happened gradually as the US debt has mounted.

I'm curious about what forum member's might regard as a potential trigger for a more dramatic and sudden shift in the US$. Something in the league of a world event. Where will it come from ? When ? US bombing Iran or North Korea ? Another Eastern European crisis ? What about South America and Africa ? Could China's intense interest in Africa cause friction with the US and Europe ? Something else ? Maybe a domestic US event or crisis. Any ideas ?

Not to direct this thread off track, but, I do not believe for one moment that the world would allow the USA to bomb Iran. There again, I did not think it even remotely conceivable that the American electorate would return GWB for a second term.

I think if there were to be a sudden shift in the value of the USD it might come from something more subtle such as, FOR EXAMPLE, China flooding the market with its USD holdings.

As for the sub-prime crisis running out of steam: it may appear to be doing so in the US but in the UK and Europe the steam is still building and has some way to go. In the same way that Europe catches a cold when America sneezes, the obverse is likely also if the sneeze is big enough and remember, America is still a sick patient.

[LaoPo]

The US $ is slipping down further, touched: 1.47 to the Euro today

"The U.S. currency slumped to $1.4704 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency debuted in January 1999, before trading at $1.4671 as of 7:15 a.m. in New York, from $1.4557 late yesterday. The dollar dropped the most in two months against the yen, trading as low as 112.87 yen. The euro fell against the yen to 165.84, from 166.99 yesterday."

"The Canadian dollar advanced to $1.1040. The Australian dollar gained to 93.98 U.S. cents, the highest since April 1984, from 92.87 U.S. cents. The rand rose to as high as 6.4294 per dollar, the highest since May 2006. The pound rose to $2.1052, the highest since May 1981."

Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves

"``We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,'' Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing. The dollar is ``losing its status as the world currency,'' Xu Jian, a central bank vice director, said at the same meeting."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[jazzbo]

Jim Rogers, a former partner of investor George Soros, said last month he's selling his house and all his possessions in the U.S. currency to buy China's yuan. ``The dollar is collapsing,'' Rogers said last week in an interview. ``I'm

moving to Asia because

moving to Asia now is like moving to New York in 1907 or London in 1807. It's the wave of the future.''

Jim Rogers is brilliant... If he is telling YOU now to get out of dollars, about the only thing near certain is that he has already gotten out is is waiting to buy his and YOURS back cheap.

Besides, on one point, you may be smarter that he is: You are already here.

[chiang mai]

If the US attacks Iran and the UK/Europe condones such action and possibly if they don't Hezbolah and their agents all over europe will surely inflict some economic pain on the region. The US is going to act to push up Oil prices and then justify an Iran invasion as a means to control the price of Oil.

What we have seen is a gradual slide of the US$ over a prolonged period. But historically there have been a number of events which periodically have caused dramatic economic changes virtually overnight. The subprime crisis was touted as a possibility but it looks to have run out of steam. The war in Iraq has a lot to do with the current slide but this has happened gradually as the US debt has mounted.

I'm curious about what forum member's might regard as a potential trigger for a more dramatic and sudden shift in the US$. Something in the league of a world event. Where will it come from ? When ? US bombing Iran or North Korea ? Another Eastern European crisis ? What about South America and Africa ? Could China's intense interest in Africa cause friction with the US and Europe ? Something else ? Maybe a domestic US event or crisis. Any ideas ?

Not to direct this thread off track, but, I do not believe for one moment that the world would allow the USA to bomb Iran. There again, I did not think it even remotely conceivable that the American electorate would return GWB for a second term.

I think if there were to be a sudden shift in the value of the USD it might come from something more subtle such as, FOR EXAMPLE, China flooding the market with its USD holdings.

As for the sub-prime crisis running out of steam: it may appear to be doing so in the US but in the UK and Europe the steam is still building and has some way to go. In the same way that Europe catches a cold when America sneezes, the obverse is likely also if the sneeze is big enough and remember, America is still a sick patient.

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

[lannarebirth]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

[Mighty Mouse]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar stumbled to new lows on Wednesday after a top Chinese official called for the country to shift more of its huge foreign exchange stockpiles out of the beleaguered greenback.

Cheng Siwei, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, was quoted by wire services as saying China should shift more of its $1.43 trillion of currency reserves into "stronger currencies," such as the euro, to offset "weak" currencies like the dollar.

Should China follow through on this threat, the damage it could cause to the greenback and the USA, is incomprehensible.

Edited November 8, 2007 by Mighty Mouse

[sonicdragon]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

What is a "high probability VLT chart pattern" ? Just curious....

[lannarebirth]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

What is a "high probability VLT chart pattern" ? Just curious....

High probability per my usage, is one that foretells coming price movement with a greater than 70% success rate. VLT is Very Long Term, or in this case monthly charts. One month, one price bar or candle. edit: Some people use VLT to be quarterly charts, but I don't use them.

Edited November 8, 2007 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

What is a "high probability VLT chart pattern" ? Just curious....

Well there's Short Time (ST), Long Time (LT) and Very Long Time (VLT), the latter often being referred to as marriage. Clear now?

[chiang mai]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar stumbled to new lows on Wednesday after a top Chinese official called for the country to shift more of its huge foreign exchange stockpiles out of the beleaguered greenback.

Cheng Siwei, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, was quoted by wire services as saying China should shift more of its $1.43 trillion of currency reserves into "stronger currencies," such as the euro, to offset "weak" currencies like the dollar.

Should China follow through on this threat, the damage it could cause to the greenback and the USA, is incomprehensible.

I don't understand why it should be so incomprehensible. GBP/USD traded at 2.40 -2.60 for many years and everything runs in cycles. As I recall at one time it swung the other way to par but that was an anomaly.