Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[Plus]

They just had elections in Uzbekistan and the ruling party got 97% of votes. There were three opposition parties, all supporting the current president.

They also have regular elections in Cuba and North Korea, in China and Vietnam, and people DO believe they are empowered. Russkies were voting like sheep for seventy years, and perestroika didn't come from their farmers becoming smarter voters either.

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Thaksin was representing just another group of elite - the richest businessmen in the country, and he thought his offer of sweeteners was better than the usual "monarchy, religion, nation" rally cry of old. Maybe it is better, but it has nothing to do with democracy, as Heng said numerous times.

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Speaking of Russians, in their political system there are no coalition governments, and the largest party doesn't get to select the Prime Minister. The whole country votes for the president, and if Thailand did something similar it looks like Abhisit would have won by a landslide, so don't talk about "mandate" or something, Samak doesn't have it. If he can't muster a coalition, tought luck. If he can't push his pro-Thaksin's agenda on his coalition partners, too bad. No one would oppose PPP led government if they remove Thaksin out of the picture. No one.

[raybingham]

maintain that, however you wish to disect the results, we have actually seen democracy in action.

I don't actually believe that most Thais really like Samak, do you?

Good God, no. But I think Isaan votes were cast for local people who "did good" in the image of Thaksin. Plus, I think they remember Thaksin/TRT/PPP more for the good that was done for the poor than for any of the corruption ("He was not 100% good but he did much good for the farmers").

Previous comments have covered the question of what the Democrats have to do to change this mindset. Otherwise, it seems that the North/North East - Bangkok - South divide will continue.

[Johpa]

One in two people want Abhisit as prime minister

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is the people's choice for the position of prime minister and People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej is the runner up inspite of his party's election victory, Ramkhamhaeng University Poll said on Tuesday.

The Nation

And it seems that Abhisit is indeed much more of the REAL people's choice than people here are realizing. It ain't over yet, folks. This is reminding me a little bit of Bush vs. Gore; maybe the good guy will win in this one?

Crikey! When are you going to understand that there are NO good guys in this story.

[mrtoad]

Crikey! When are you going to understand that there are NO good guys in this story.

When he can get a metre taxi without hassle in Pattaya.

[Jingthing]

Relative good, yes I believe that exists here. It doesn't take much to be better than Thaksin and Samak.

[lukamar]

Some people probably do think this but then again there are those of us who feel that whenever the people vote in a particular gov't and the gov't they vote in does in fact take power then this in and of itself advances democracy ... .his "populist" plans might be viewed as buying votes but I think that a careful observor of the electorate in rural Thailand will see that these plans also gave the always overlooked rural population a sense of empowerment.....for the people to feel empowered is a good thing and in the long run is one of the necessary elements for nurturing a democracy.

chownah

I agree with you 100%. Possibly our view is a bit different living in or having close contacts in the North. A lot of the people on this board have only been under martial law for a short time during the junta's rule and have been little effected. Perhaps if they lived with it on a day to day basis and were privy to the local news and views, they would agree as well. In the Martial law areas road blocks, intimidation of canvassers, Officers telling soldiers how to vote all are and were a daily occurrence. The often stated, Martial Law to control the drug flow into Thailand is a total joke, the drug trade has been there for hundreds of years, they don't need Martial Law to control it. Ask yourselves why now all of a sudden. Even under the Drug Crackdown of the Thaksin era there was no martial law. It's a control measure, an intimidation measure, a gun at your head, a finger pointing saying we have our eye on you.

If there were elections where the PPP was not targeted and there was no Martial Law, PPP would have won an overwhelming majority. Those that don't believe that, do not truly understand, or want to understand, the lengths the military went to to crush the TRT and now the PPP in the north ( the area I know about) in the last 15 months. The fact that they won the majority of seats and the majority of votes says something very loudly and while you can say it is a narrow or hollow victory that's not what the international observers are saying.

Human rights Watch on Military Interference in Thailand's Election Process

[YoungAndRice]

Jingthing,

You have made about 20 posts that say exactly the same thing "Thaskin is bad", "TRT is bad", "Samak is bad", which do not even attempt to add anything else to the conversation. Maybe stop?

[Jingthing]

Jingthing,

You have made about 20 posts that say exactly the same thing "Thaskin is bad", "TRT is bad", "Samak is bad", which do not even attempt to add anything else to the conversation. Maybe stop?

Why don't you mind your own business? You are new here, this forum is not for this kind of personal attack on other posters, so please learn your lesson and YOU stop it.

And your statement is false anyway. No mention of my prevailing theme: a subconscious desire for blood lust. Get it right, Mister, or don't bother.

Edited December 25, 2007 by Jingthing

[LaoPo]

Jingthing,

You have made about 20 posts that say exactly the same thing "Thaskin is bad", "TRT is bad", "Samak is bad", which do not even attempt to add anything else to the conversation. Maybe stop?

Why don't you mind your own business? You are new here, this forum is not for this kind of personal attack on other posters, so please learn your lesson and YOU stop it.

And your statement is false anyway. No mention of my prevailing theme: a subconscious desire for blood lust. Get it right, Mister, or don't bother.

Why are you answering so aggressive Jingthing ?

YoungAndRice did not attack you, but in fact he might have had a point; that he is a more recent member on TV doesn't give you or me more rights than him.

Your answer is not very polite, especially not on Christmas

Happy Christmas !

LaoPo

[lukamar]

I have noticed that Western media has been very critical of the military's interference in the democratic process when reporting on the elections.

Thanks for the link.

The Western media is not subject to the same censorship restrictions as the Thai media, imposed by the Junta hours after their takeover. The restrictions and penalties are even more severe in Martial law areas. I'm always observant about what I put on my Chiang Rai news site as i don't want it to be put on the internet Black list and lose my access to Thailand as it is hosted on a server outside the country. My blog on the other hand, I could care less about getting it black listed and i say what I want.

Edited December 25, 2007 by lukamar

[endure]

The bickering will stop now. OK?

[Felt 35]

Not sure why everyone is blaming Thaksin alone for selling Shin Corp to Temasek. The deal could only go ahead because SCB agreed to back the deal. Ina deal worth billions of dollars and one involving sellling important assets, the major shareholders of SCB will have given their go ahead for the deal.

The major shareholder in SCB is CPB. And who has final say in everything that the CPB does? . . . someone who cannot be mentioned.

Not everything is as simple as it seems in Thailand.

Ops....

Over & out, back to Christmas celebrations.

[Ricardo]

No one would oppose PPP led government if they remove Thaksin out of the picture. No one.

Agreed

He was not 100% good but he did much good for the farmers

...

Previous comments have covered the question of what the Democrats have to do to change this mindset. Otherwise, it seems that the North/North East - Bangkok - South divide will continue.

How come Thaksin is so liked by farmers in the North/North-East - yet farmers down South hate him, it's a mystery.

[Ricardo]

Crikey! When are you going to understand that there are NO good guys in this story.

When he can get a metre taxi without hassle in Pattaya.

Is that one of those new-fangled smaller more-fuel-efficient cars ?

[marshbags]

As many posters are continually going on about the negatives relating to the military intervenion and all that followed.

One thing will i feel, be highlighted and become apparent in the coming months is how they not only intervened peacefully. but prevented further trouble that would have happened.

Unlike a certain Thai in exile who tried the opposite, their intensions had honest objectives and they did so in the interests of the country.

There are now no barriers ( as was during the potentially dangerous stages of the last year. ) to keep the then Thaksin supporters from moving towards the capitol to confront opposing factions / discredit the temp. government, were i predict there is going to be much violence and bloodshed.

The paid (again ) ????????, will, rather than be discouraged, be incited to go balistic and left uncontrolled and unchecked to confront those who do not support the dishonest objectives of the PPP /TRT and it,s evil duo / CEO,s ????

Their brains numbed by the obvious consumption of whatever conococtions they are freely given / supplied with to fuel their chargrin.

Samak will, via the Hongkong paymaster, be doing his upmost to cause alarm and despondency among the already polarised voters....... of which we are all very familiar with and by doing so attempt to weaken the opposition.

Look at the number of voters in their millions who voted against him and them and you can see the scale of what may be a very dangerous times during their governance, assuming again they take control.

Once they start carrying out their intentions relating to the banned TRT politicians, minipulation of the new constitution / institutions, for personal gain and self interests.

Effectively either destroying evidence / ignoring the corruption allegations that are, in many Thai voters eyes factual and not invented as a military vendetta as many would want us to believe.

It may be that certain selected accusations will be allowed to go to court that they are confident of being unsuccessful ( as when Thaksin initially became P.M. even though he was guilty 100% and either via fear or bribery they can minipulate the law and get all the charges thrown out.)

Ultimately pocketing all the proceeds and getting all the frozen assets released to allow their war chest to be replenished and recoup the funds that were used to buy the voters and minipulate the regaining of power and all that unethically goes with it.

Assuming of course as before, that they get the support they need to Govern the country.

For all those on this thread who have been here during similar uproar in recent times and within our lifetimes, don,t take my word for it, just relate to sad and tragic events within recent history and your own observations as to what happens when the unruly no braining pawns get fired up.

If i am proved wrong then i would be very happy for all the Thai,s who deserve a peaceful, honest and just society and voted for honourable objectives,

May the ones that did not, not have to pay the ultimate penalty / price for their misguided actions, while the ones who fund all the mayhem with selfish, self interests, eventually get the Karma they deserve.

Sadly again i fear that many innocent Thai,s will be used as human collateral to further the cause for these unethical excuses of humanbeings who claim to love the country and it,s citizens.

IMH and PO as always.

marshbags

Edited December 26, 2007 by marshbags

[Jai Dee]

Chart Thai and Pua Paendin ready to be government or opposition

Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapaarcha (บรรหาร ศิลปอาชา) and Pua Paendin Leader Suwit Khunkitti (สุวิทย์ คุณกิตติ) revealed after dining together that they have made up their minds concerning the call for them to choose to join a coalition with the People’s Power Party to form a government, or take on the role of opposition. The two stated though that the decision required much analysis and thorough consideration.

The Chart Thai leader though commented that People’s Power Party Secretary-General Doctor Surapong Suebwonglee (สุรพงษ์ สืบวงศ์ลี) should not have said the party was awaiting Chart Thai and Pua Paendin to join its coalition. He said that as the People’s Power Party has sufficient seats it could easily establish its own government.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 December 2007

[marshbags]

Linda Cherdchai! Talking of dodgy characters. I didnt realise the bus mafia girl was running. Who did she stand for? Hopefully she wont end up in parliament. Right obnoxious mafia character.

I read in the Times yesterday that Yarumbung the police Capt was elected and that he was going to be appointed interior minister and would continue with the drugs war, does anyone know if either of this loving sons were elected?

Knowing the reputation of daddy looking out for his sons, even though the PPP withdrew their initial moves to stand for the party. ( due to adverse and predictable outrage by many Thai citizens )

I feel sure they will be invloved in one way or another within the party, thuggery, guns ect. ect. ahemmmmm,

Please don,t hurt me i,m only kidding ......

Regarding the drug statements, just in case you or others on this thread have not read them..................

A statement to this effect was published and much publicised during the run up to the elections marquess and was made on behalf of the PPP and they Chalerm said at the time it would be pursued in the same way and with the same objectives as was.

Ridding Thailand of the drug culture ??????? <deleted> is going on.

If you collate all the potentially life threatening statements together on their future and immediate intentions, god help everyone if they follow up on them !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When you have People like Samak, Chalerm and family thugs, who will be involved within the party via daddy, what else can we all expect from their ilk.

I can part quote a post ( 977 ) dedicated to the EJK,s for your reference:-

DEFENDING THE WAR ON DRUGS

Chalerm: Hopes to revive policy

Veteran politician Chalerm Yubamrung recently joined the People Power Party (PPP) and is seen as its number two. Over the past month, he has expressed his ambition to become Interior Minister and revive the Thaksin Shinawatra government's controversial war on drugs, which led to the deaths of more than 2,500 people in alleged extra-judicial killings by police. Bangkok Post asked him how he plans to revive the policy. Below are excerpts from the interview.

Do you intend to use the same heavy-handed approach applied by the Thaksin administration?

Drug suppression needs to be handled seriously, the same way the Thaksin administration did. Regarding the extra-judicial killings, people misunderstood that authorities killed innocent people.

Will you set time-frames for achievement like the past government?

We will work based on what the Thaksin government did, and will continue from there. We will declare a new phase of the war on drugs.

Don't you think the implementation of this policy should be conducted in a careful and gradual manner?

Illicit drug suppression cannot be handled gradually. It needs time-frames and targets.

The Thaksin administration set a target for each province to list local dealers. Do you intend to do the same?

It won't be changed.

Interview continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/27Nov2007_news09.php

You may also wish to read a statement by Thaksin lawyer Noppadon and his view in post ( 961 )

marshbags

Edited December 26, 2007 by marshbags

[wolfmanjack]

Actually, the popular vote was very close, Democrat vs. PPP, and the actual election might actually be much more corrupted than an opinion poll, if you get my drift. This was NOT a popular vote landslide for Samak. In the seats contest, of course, they did much better, but still not enough for a decisive victory.

And in the Thai system as it is, the PPP did not gain enough seats to assure Samak being PM. Sounds like a pretty good system to me, if it affords a possibility of a coalition to block this horribly divisive and violence provoking choice. The poll shows there is indeed much more to this than meets the eye. Thailand is indeed VERY divided.

I think every one who is saying that the majority of the people want Samsak are missing one major point. The total number of people voting was over 71,772,667 and the PPP only received 26,293,456 votes which is only 36.6% of the votes. So a poll of 2 to 1 saying they wanted Abhisit is in the realm of possibilities. It is easy to see that the majority of the thai people did NOT vote for the PPP. All of these smaller parties split the vote. Just like in the USA the 2 main parties are the Democrats and the Republicans. The Libertarian party splits the democrat vote so the republicans win.

[YoungAndRice]

What is the likely hood that the end result is that neither party is able to form a government?

[Jai Dee]

3 elected candidates of winning party "yellow-carded"

Thailand's Election Commission (EC)decided Tuesday to disqualify three elected MP candidates of the People Power Party (PPP), the winner of Sunday's general election, on alleged involvement in vote-buying scam, said EC member Sodsri Satyatham.

Sodsri named the three PPP candidates, who just won the contest for constituency MP seats for the Constituency three in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima, as Boonlert Krutkhunthot, Linda Cherdchai and Prasert Chantarawongthong, according to the Thai News Agency.

The EC decided to issue "yellow cards" to disqualify the winning PPP candidates on their alleged involvement in a vote-buying scam, the agency said.

According to EC regulations, elected candidates given "yellow cards" could re-run in a by-election to get the seat, scheduled tentatively on January 13.

Both the "yellow cards" and "red cards" are indicators certifying disqualification of elected candidates accused of electoral cheating and misconduct.

An elected candidate who receives a red card will lose the seat and be banned from contesting in an election or a by-election for a year.

Thailand held a general election on Sunday, the first since a military coup ousted former elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September last year and installed an interim government.

The EC announced earlier on Tuesday the official poll results, which has seen the PPP, seen as a nominee party for former premier Thaksin, win the election with 233 of the 480 seats in the House of Representatives, with its major rival the Democrat Party getting 165.

With the issuance of the three yellow cards, the current numberof MP seats won by the PPP has fallen to 230. The PPP will have to look for support of other parties to secure an absolute majority in the parliament to form a coalition government.

Meanwhile, the EC said three other winning PPP candidates -- Kittikorn Lohsunthorn, Thanathorn Lohsunthorn and Wasit Phayakhabut -- in Lampang Province's Constituency one are suspected of involvement in electoral wrongdoing, and have been asked to report to the polling agency for questioning Thursday.

Source: Xinhua - 26 December 2007

[John K]

Some food for thought and debate now that it has been a few days.

At this time the PPP does not appear to have anyone with real knowhow and one of three things will happen.

Option one: Fumble along and not do any better than the out going government and perhaps a lot worse as they will be up to their usual tricks. This will eventually turn the people who voted for them against them and put people in the streets with protests.

Option two: Have Thaksin advise and guide them. However this choice is a death sentence for the PPP as that Thaksin is prohibited and may cause the PPP to be dissolved and disbanded the same as May 2007.

Option three: Hire consultants to tell them what to do, but the consultant will not factor in any way for the politicians to make money on deals. That will ultimately sabotage this option and it most likely will not be selected.

[lukamar]

The total number of people voting was over 71,772,667

While i don't doubt the number you quoted as the number of votes cast in the election. The truth of the matter is the population of Thailand is only 65,068,149 ( July 2007). Registered voters for this election were around 45 million. So using your figure that would work out to about a 159% voter turnout.. Probably why the Demo's got such a high vote...

That works out to PPP 49.5%/42.5% Constituent/Proportionate

Denorats 33.0%/41.25% Constituent/Proportionate

Edited December 26, 2007 by lukamar

[thai_narak]

there's one post that says "thai people have spoken" but hey i don't agree with this. i think only the north and northeastern have spoken as majority of PPP's votes are there but if you look at the central, bangkok, eastern, and south the people says otherwise. so what's the difference we can see in these regions? you know it...

[thai_narak]

The total number of people voting was over 71,772,667

While i don't doubt the number you quoted as the number of votes cast in the election. The truth of the matter is the population of Thailand is only 65,068,149 ( July 2007). Registered voters for this election were around 45 million. So using your figure that would work out to about a 159% voter turnout.. Probably why the Demo's got such a high vote...

some of the dead voted too?

Edited December 26, 2007 by thai_narak

[lukamar]

some of the dead voted too?

LOL.. Generations of them...

The big problem is the 3 way split in the country that falls along the lines that you stated. It's been a problem for a long time it's not new it's just come to a head. I don't have a clue about the South and we have good friends there. The city, BKK, and the area north have been at odds for centuries, nothing new now. There are a few things that have to be done somehow and I'm glad i don't have to figure it out. The south has to be appeased or at least not alienated as the action there could easily spread, probably why the military keeps martial law in the PPP areas. the people in the north/Northeast have to be recognized. The people in Bangkok have to realize that it is not the center of the universe, but part of a larger picture if Thailand is to survive.

Thailand needs to come up with some kind of universal education system based on family income where the poor can send their children to school without undue hardship. There are a lot of undereducated people in the rural areas that Thailand has lost the use of their brain power. Conversely there are a lot of well educated city people that are dumber than dog dung.

Thailand needs a military that is responsible to someone. That someone has to be elected.

The 30Bt health care has to be amended so that it works. The idea was commendable but the implementation was downright lousy.

[madi]

I think your numbers are completely wrong. Perhaps you had a typo.

There are of course not 71 million people even eligible to vote in Thailand. There are not even 71 million Thais in Thailand.

I am sure you know that as well. Must have been a typo.

So take the population of Thai people that are registered voters and begin from there. It cannot be over 40 million. Can it? I mean all the young kids must make up around 33% of the population.

Looks to me as if the voter turnout was nothing less than spectacular. It reminds me of the old days in Chicago when dead people were voting. The massive fraud must have been on both sides. To say that only one side was doing it is comical.

Oh well

[Heng]

there's one post that says "thai people have spoken" but hey i don't agree with this. i think only the north and northeastern have spoken as majority of PPP's votes are there but if you look at the central, bangkok, eastern, and south the people says otherwise. so what's the difference we can see in these regions? you know it...

I hear ya. Votes from households with more wealth should count more heavily.

[lukamar]

At this time the PPP does not appear to have anyone with real knowhow and one of three things will happen.

PPP has some very knowledgeable people, all the parties do. Samak himself is a pretty bright guy with some very deep connections with the bureaucrats, the poor and the military. Political rivals have sold him short in the past and suffered the consequences, just ask the Democrats about the 79 election.

There is Option four:- the PPP does a good job. Turns around the economy, brings peace to the south, educates the rural poor.

Probably the outcome is somewhere in the middle, good in some areas poor in others, like every government on earth. For now it is Thailand's only legitimate option for a government. Any other outcome would smell of a fix and would just drive the wedge into the crack that much farther.

The best outcome for Thailand would be a coalition with all the parties except the democrats, who can't quite figure out how to get out of the opposition hel_l they have put themselves in. The government could be strong. the coalition parties would temper the PPP and maybe the country would finally get some decent legislation. With a coalition majority that strong they could even amend ot bring back the 97 constitution.

The PPP are not all doom and gloom - remember under the TRT the country was doing very well indeed, even with the assorted problems.

[Naam]

my prevailing theme: a subconscious desire for blood lust. Get it right, Mister, or don't bother.

that's just ridiculous. my opinion is that YOU should get it right Jingthing and drop your subconscious but not so subtle displayed despisal for Thailand, Thai people and your thai surroundings. this attitude shows in each of the threads you opened; no matter how hard you are trying to disguise it.

[John K]

I think your numbers are completely wrong. Perhaps you had a typo.

There are of course not 71 million people even eligible to vote in Thailand. There are not even 71 million Thais in Thailand.

I am sure you know that as well. Must have been a typo.

So take the population of Thai people that are registered voters and begin from there. It cannot be over 40 million. Can it? I mean all the young kids must make up around 33% of the population.

Looks to me as if the voter turnout was nothing less than spectacular. It reminds me of the old days in Chicago when dead people were voting. The massive fraud must have been on both sides. To say that only one side was doing it is comical.

Oh well

Well... I would not be to sure on that, you need to count the dead that voted for the PPP. That way it is very easy to get 71,000,000.