Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[Old Man River]

My main concern is that everyone involved is so incompetent we will not have a government of any sort for the foreseeable future.

Forming a new government will be easy. No need to complicate it. Just divy up the seats won by the PPP on a proportionate basis with the other parties. This speeds up the process so we can get to the next national crisis quicker. No need to delay.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

It is clear that the majority of voters wanted to vote for the best representation of Thaksin there was.

I believe the correct work is plurality. Thailand doesn't have run off elections as do many countries. There was no party with a majority.

[quiksilva]

Agreed, there will not be any more dilly dallying around once if the PPP is found guilty as charged, I suspect the democrats will proceed to form a coalition government, and that will be that, well for now at least...

[ando]

My main concern is that everyone involved is so incompetent we will not have a government of any sort for the foreseeable future. A shame on them and a pity for Thailand.

Spot on.

Things could last... well... hel_l of a time.

Just imagine : the Supreme Court will say on january 16 if it will consider or not the "nominee case"...

With all the "evidences"... it will surely say "yes". That would launch a whole new legal process...

Therefore, how the PPP could form a new government with such uncertainty (the risk to be disbanded) ? !

Indeed, the flying circus is going to last.

And it's a serious blow to the "everything will be fine after the elections" crowd.

Nothing is solved. Nothing will be solved on a the short term.

Yes, its beginning to become evident that whoever gains the edge in this power struggle, they will hold it by the thinnest of margins and ultimately the government will become unstable as a result. The military has written their right to step in and fix the problem into the new constitution, so expect another military takeover if PPP gain the edge. In any case, new elections are on the cards before the next government serves its full term.

The whole situation is one hel_l of a big mess made worse by the judiciaries bias towards the elite backers of the junta. Basically, with the way things are at the moment the balance of power rests with the military and the judiciary, rather than with the people as in a true democracy.

I tend to agree with Blaze and Hammer that the only way out of this terrible mess is for the PPP and the Democrats to set their differences apart and to form a temporary government of National unity and reconciliation, thereby stealing the militaries thunder as the only force that can sort out the problem. Basically, the military and the judiciary are but tools of the elite ruling class and they need their wings clipped by a bipartisan alliance of the peoples representatives if a true democracy is to prevail in Thailand. The alternative is this farcical charade of coups, elections and court cases we see at the moment that tries to pass itself off as a democratic process. The current situation in Thailand is truly a joke and an embarrassment to the good people of Thailand who deserve better.

Unfortunately, the prospect of a bipartisan government of Nation reconciliation becomes more remote every day as the population becomes more divided and polarized and the elite backed military and judiciary tighten their grip on the throat of democracy. It seems Thailand culture of corruption at every level will continue to hold back the democratic process and keep Thailand as a third world developing country. But I guess that's the way the elite in Thailand like it.

[jackspratt]

EC officially approves 397 of 480 elected MPs

Chairman of the Election Commission (EC) Apichart Sukakanont (อภิชาติ สุขัคคานนท์) revealed the official declaration of the EC concerning the approval of members of parliament recently elected in the general election. The EC officially approved 397 of the elected officials and denied approval to 83 candidates.

The EC Chairman elaborated the denials to 4 candidates in the Party-List system which allows 400 seats in parliament and 79 constituency candidates which allows for 80 candidates. Mr. Apichart stated though that the law permits the denied candidates to appeal the decision within 30 days of the declaration. He asked that appeals be made within the time frame as if they are, penalization for fault will only be a 1 year banning from politics while an appeal made after the 30 days may result in a 5 year ban if the candidates are found to be guilty.

Mr. Apichart affirmed that the EC worked transparently and justly to finalize the list and did not make approvals based on allegiances or parties. The declaration revealed disqualifications from all major parties, including the People’s Power Party as well as the Democrat Party.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 04 January 2008

There must be 397 newly elected MPs thanking Buddha at the moment, and 83 shaking their heads and saying to themselves "how did I draw the short straw".

Perhaps the EC had another ballot, to decide which vote-buying MPs could stay, and which would be denied.

[Abrak]

Agreed, there will not be any more dilly dallying around once if the PPP is found guilty as charged, I suspect the democrats will proceed to form a coalition government, and that will be that, well for now at least...

Do you seriously think this is how things will pan out???

One thought I have is that the chaos that seems to be ensuing - from the return of Thaksin, the arrival of Chalerm, the banishment of elected MPs, the possible banning of a party - plays into the hands of the military. I am sure they are hoping to return as the saviours amongst the chaos of democratic politics....

[quiksilva]

Well I'm not a political scientist or anything but yes I think its a possibility.

It seems to me that every effort is being made by the powers that be to support the democrats at this stage. Consider that after all these red cards and yellow cards the huge margin between the parties has been all but wiped out (what is it now, 9 seats?) and now with this court case on the horizon..

I can't see the military coming back into the fray anytime soon, of course its a worry, but that I think is really a worse case scenario.

Edited January 4, 2008 by quiksilva

[Mosha]

Well I'm not a political scientist or anything but yes I think its a possibility.

It seems to me that every effort is being made by the powers that be to support the democrats at this stage. Consider that after all these red cards and yellow cards the huge margin between the parties has been all but wiped out (what is it now, 9 seats?) and now with this court case on the horizon..

I can't see the military coming back into the fray anytime soon, of course its a worry, but that I think is really a worse case scenario.

The expression "The shi_ts gonna hit the fan" mean anything where you come from?

[quiksilva]

Yeah sure, it sounds similar to: "DON'T PANIC!!!! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"

Edit: look I'm not saying its all going to be rosy, the economic outlook is anything but. However, there does seem to be a lot of alarmists on this thread by the way some people are speaking anyone would think we heading towards civil war!

Edited January 4, 2008 by quiksilva

[Abrak]

Yeah sure, it sounds similar to: " DONT PANIC!!!! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"

Actually the lack of panic is somewhat surprising....

It is difficult to see a positive outcome for Thailand in the next few years and there really is no reason to either invest here or keep ones money here.

It looks like a place purely for vacation...

[ando]

Well I'm not a political scientist or anything but yes I think its a possibility.

It seems to me that every effort is being made by the powers that be to support the democrats at this stage. Consider that after all these red cards and yellow cards the huge margin between the parties has been all but wiped out (what is it now, 9 seats?) and now with this court case on the horizon..

I can't see the military coming back into the fray anytime soon, of course its a worry, but that I think is really a worse case scenario.

The military wont step back in unless the PPP somehow gain government and falter along the way. If the Democrats manage to snatch power it could be an even worse scenerio with political wranglings grinding things to a halt and the military reluctant to move in for fear of giving the oppersition some advantage.

Either way, a weak (minority) government is not a good thing for Thailand.

[thaigene2]

What a joke - but not suprising really.

When you think back in the weeks before the election they (esp The Nation and pro-elites) went on and on about rumours that dark forces were planning massive vote buying..They were priming the pump so that they could come out after the election and say 'see? We told you'...then the great high court of Thailand wipes out a bunch of PPP candidates and reverses their election. The result, Democrats waltz in. Abhisit was just too smug from the get go - saying he'll wait and he's happy to serve in opposition etc...

It was probably planned from the start. I was surprised by the fact that there seemed to be no (or little interference in the vote results). I thought that's where the tampering would happen. But the way in which (they may have) planned this makes sense really, especially if the idea was to throw out the result AFTER the election - that way a majority or minority wouldn't much matter, they'd just kick out enough PPP winners to reverse the results. No sweat.

How do like that kind of Democracy?

Edited January 4, 2008 by thaigene2

[thaigene2]

Basically, the military and the judiciary are but tools of the elite ruling class and they need their wings clipped by a bipartisan alliance of the peoples representatives if a true democracy is to prevail in Thailand. The alternative is this farcical charade of coups, elections and court cases we see at the moment that tries to pass itself off as a democratic process.

It seems Thailand culture of corruption at every level will continue to hold back the democratic process and keep Thailand as a third world developing country. But I guess that's the way the elite in Thailand like it.

Agree, but the election was not a farcical charade. People voted for whom they wanted and they did so in a big turnout - to make their point. The problem is that the elites won't accept the results of the voters - as is now very plain for anyone to see. But you're right the rest is absolutely farcical. The biggest laugh I get is when all these different countries start rolling out the red carpet for the chief poobah commissioner of this or that and the chief governor of this or that magistrate to 'hand down' some learned ruling. What BS.

[Abrak]

It was probably planned from the start.

The idea that this was planned is simply wrong IMHO. The military are so incompetent they couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery.

They simply misjudged everything...

1. They thought if they got rid of the figurehead of TRT the party would die. This might have been the case if they hadnt decided to persecute him and force him to fight for his political life.

2. Secondly they banned the 111 TRT execs. This was a big mistake. Somkid was planning to take a large contingent off to form a 'good' party separate from the old TRT - essentially splitting their vote.

They are now simply trying to make the best of a bad job.... and probably making matters even worse....

[hammered]

It was probably planned from the start.

The idea that this was planned is simply wrong IMHO. The military are so incompetent they couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery.

They simply misjudged everything...

1. They thought if they got rid of the figurehead of TRT the party would die. This might have been the case if they hadnt decided to persecute him and force him to fight for his political life.

2. Secondly they banned the 111 TRT execs. This was a big mistake. Somkid was planning to take a large contingent off to form a 'good' party separate from the old TRT - essentially splitting their vote.

They are now simply trying to make the best of a bad job.... and probably making matters even worse....

This is a critical point and was shown by Gen. Sonthi wanting to pardon them all bar 3 the day after the verdict. It also showed the obvious divisions in what is called the elite.

Anyway ancient history now and interesting to mull over but the mess still has to be gotten out of and as every day sees more and more people accusing each other of more and more things and with the rise of the political temperature it is going to take a hel_l of an incident or deal or bashing of heads together to see a way through this. Compromise seems dead.

[sriracha john]

Kudeb Saikrajang, a People Power Party spokesman, said the party was confident that it could go ahead with setting up a coalition government.

"We are waiting for its results. We believe we can go ahead with launching our coalition government. We are also confident that the EC is investigating fairly," the spokesman said.

- AFP

[sriracha john]

The Rogue's Gallery...

A Thai official looks at the pictures of politicians facing investigation.

AFP

=======================================

Additional testimonial for EC:

Samak said that he was not overly concerned, as candidates still had a chance to prove their innocence.

"Everything will be fine after they testify to the EC. I am confident the EC is working honestly," he said.

- AFP

[Plus]

Apart from repeating it a dozen times - is the any evidence of military doing anything at this moment, let alone trying to fix the elections results through EC and Supreme Court?

It's groundless speculation at the moment. On election day we at least had someone publicly say that Prem was meeting Banharn, and it was completely discredited afterwords. Now we don't have even blatant lies, only "sky is falling" brigade talking up a new coup, out of nothing.

83 unconfirmed seats is not a big deal, standard procedure, most will be let off for the lack of solid evidence, PPP will still have the majority.

As for national reconciliation - it will happen on its own, without anyone making big headlines about it. Just think for a moment who will actually be in the government - all the same faces doing exactly the same things, no matter who will hold the nominal position of the PM.

Days of Thaksin bossing everyone around are over. Neither Samak nor Abhisit will have complete control of any particular policy.

[Meerkat]

Were I being investigated by a tribunal, I'd hardly go on record as saying, "those that are about to judge me are partisan/biased/bent-as-a-three-bob-note". I'd be much more likely to suck up.

I wouldn't read too much into those testimonials.

[Plus]

Didn't stop him talking about "invisible hand" just three days ago.

[Abrak]

Apart from repeating it a dozen times - is the any evidence of military doing anything at this moment, let alone trying to fix the elections results through EC and Supreme Court?

It's groundless speculation at the moment. On election day we at least had someone publicly say that Prem was meeting Banharn, and it was completely discredited afterwords. Now we don't have even blatant lies, only "sky is falling" brigade talking up a new coup, out of nothing.

83 unconfirmed seats is not a big deal, standard procedure, most will be let off for the lack of solid evidence, PPP will still have the majority.

As for national reconciliation - it will happen on its own, without anyone making big headlines about it. Just think for a moment who will actually be in the government - all the same faces doing exactly the same things, no matter who will hold the nominal position of the PM.

Days of Thaksin bossing everyone around are over. Neither Samak nor Abhisit will have complete control of any particular policy.

Wow am I living in a different universe?

Since when did these loonies get a mandate to take over the asylum? Chalerm interior minister? Samak PM?

Didnt Thanong their fist choice as FM (who hasnt even replied) oversee the devaluation of the baht?

Its like a bad dream....

[Plus]

Thanong is not dumb and he didn't oversee the devaluation, he was brought in to negotiate a way out (and later blamed Democrats for following the terms he negotiated himself).

He is a big business guy who'll do everything it takes to boost their profits. Dangerous character, but any Finance Minister will be bound by current conditions, there isn't much room left. They have to deal with strong baht and capital controls. For all the complaining there aren't any alternative solutions.

Same with Transport - whoever is in charge they need to start working on infra-structure porjects, the difference is in little details.

Economy Minister will be forced to deal with exports, Tourism with tourists, and so on. They all will try to produce same results, they'll put technocrats with similar backgrounds, just different names.

And smaller ministries will go to the coalition partners anyway.

Chalerm as Interior is disgusting, true, but this ministry is not really that important.

[hammered]

Thanong is not dumb and he didn't oversee the devaluation, he was brought in to negotiate a way out (and later blamed Democrats for following the terms he negotiated himself).

He is a big business guy who'll do everything it takes to boost their profits. Dangerous character, but any Finance Minister will be bound by current conditions, there isn't much room left. They have to deal with strong baht and capital controls. For all the complaining there aren't any alternative solutions.

Same with Transport - whoever is in charge they need to start working on infra-structure porjects, the difference is in little details.

Economy Minister will be forced to deal with exports, Tourism with tourists, and so on. They all will try to produce same results, they'll put technocrats with similar backgrounds, just different names.

And smaller ministries will go to the coalition partners anyway.

Chalerm as Interior is disgusting, true, but this ministry is not really that important.

Considering Chalerm has promised a drug war and to the best of my knowledge the police are still under the interior ministry, I wouldnt say it is an unimportant ministry. They also have involvement in things like elections and realistically control over regional and local bureaucrats, or in other words it is the ministry that you can use to influence the outcome of the next election. Having a loon like Chalerm in control of it is quite worrying and i guess it means his role model sons can go on an alcohol fueled run of gun carnage in any pub of their choice knowing little will be done about it.

[sriracha john]

Considering Chalerm has promised a drug war and to the best of my knowledge the police are still under the interior ministry, I wouldnt say it is an unimportant ministry. They also have involvement in things like elections and realistically control over regional and local bureaucrats, or in other words it is the ministry that you can use to influence the outcome of the next election. Having a loon like Chalerm in control of it is quite worrying and i guess it means his role model sons can go on an alcohol fueled run of gun carnage in any pub of their choice knowing little will be done about it.

It was probably their uncanny ability to avoid prosecution that led to his PPP invitation by Thaksin..

Chalerm Yoobamrung's sons have been linked to 12 alleged incidents of brawling, physical assault, shootings, or other incidents at bars and discotheques in a three year period, but have never been punished.

- BBC

[Abrak]

Wait a sec.... unless we want to rewrite history, Thanong was the FM who oversaw the devaluation of the baht.

More importantly, he has been the long term boss of TMB that appears to be regularly heading to bankruptcy due to mismanadgement. Dont let this guy near my wallet.....

[Richard W]

It seems to me that every effort is being made by the powers that be to support the democrats at this stage. Consider that after all these red cards and yellow cards the huge margin between the parties has been all but wiped out (what is it now, 9 seats?)

If electoral malpractice did not affect the outcome in these seats, surely the ensuing by-elections will cause little change in the number of MPs each party gets. Or will the PPP lose out heavily because the anti-PPP vote will not be split in the by-elections?

and now with this court case on the horizon.

This is a different matter entirely.

[Plus]

Thanong was appointed FM in June 1997 just over a week before the devaluation, when it was too late to change anything. He was mostly dealing with the mess created afterwards.

He has collected lots of skeletons in his closet since then, but, as former Thai Military Bank president he might be more acceptable to the generals.

Basically, he knows what he is doing, and the country WILL reap some benefits (not the farmers, though, he doesn't do "helping poor"). His biggest problem is run ins with the law - after PPP, Egat, and Shin Sale cases any of his policies could be successfully challenged in the courts, he doesn't show much appreciation for justice, fairness or legalities.

Interior Ministry is one of the most coveted posts but it has little immediate impact on things that matter at the moment - economy, populist polices, healthcare etc. Chalerm might really try to start another drug war but I think it's beyond his skills level.

What PPP can really screw up is healthcare. They will probably give adrenaline shot to 30 baht scheme but they need to reinvent it completely ASAP, in its current form it's unsustainable and the longer they keep dumping money in that pit, the more long term damage they inflict.

[thaigene2]

I just don't see a Government being formed personally. The elites won't allow PPP to take power unless they've got another trump card up their sleeve - cause they're the ones who backed the removal of the populist-international-biz-TRT in the first place.

Having said that, wouldn't it be just too obviously brazen to try to disqualify most or even all of the PPP on some trumped up charges?

It's a depressing thought, but I reckon the unifromed-types (with whom so many well-healed Thais seem to be comfortable with) may play another part in the near future.

I agree the National Unity Government is probably best of a bad bunch of solutions. But maybe too late for that though?

[sriracha john]

Are they trumped-up charges? If there's evidence of vote-buying, then there's evidence for the carding... I would wonder if they are so allegedly over-whelmingly popular, why the PPP wouldn't be on their best behavior, not participate in electoral shenanigans, and simply rely on their constituents to vote them in, but then they've been going against that logic since their TRT days... but for PPP overall, I would think they're most concerned about party dissolution, where the evidence of wrong-doing is clear. That case is up in just 10 days, but even sooner, in 6 days is another Supreme Court decision on the PPP's other charges.

Edited January 5, 2008 by sriracha john

[Tony Clifton]