Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[hammered]

My guess right now is that the final details of an uneasy agreement between PPP/Thaksin and the current rulers of the country are being worked out. Witness Anupongs remark on the potential defence minister amongst other things.

In all likelihood the red card/yellow card stuff is just a process to be worked throguh with as little drama as possible but probably buying negotiating time. After all, time is not on the side of the current bunch so they have to get the deal pinned down. If the deal cant be cut we then get into a risky situation and we shouldnt forget that there are already cases in the courts that could either result in the disolution of PPP or the annulmant of the election. The red card/yellow card stuff will shortly be over. The chance of the Yuth getting a red card and this leading to disolution will probably not come about because that would mean similar disolution of two other parties who had played the game with the Junta. This will also be good news for anyone insane or brave enough to give evidence against someone as vengeful and dangerous as Yuth. Guess the family business traffic will be back to full flow fairly soon.

[Lilawadee]

I use it when I mean a very specific group.

Thailand might not be ready to liberal democracy, the next best thing would be a government accountable to the people, and Democrats are far better at that than TRT/PPP. If the "elites" want to see Democrats in power, it's the best available option at the moment.

The best option indeed for those "elites", and probably the best option for you, and quite likely even the best option for me.

The interesting thing with Democracy though is that each person gets exactly the same say in what they consider 'best', and currently there's millions of poorer people who vehemently disagree that the "Democrats" are best for them.

Bangkok 'elite' believes in democracy, or guided democracy, if you wish. The opposing side doesn't believe in power of the people, despite the name. It's very easy to choose which side to support.

If it was very easy, would this topic have run to one thousand, eight hundred and thirty eight posts? If it was very easy, wouldn't the "Democrat" party have won in a landslide?

Clearly it's not very easy, or even a little bit easy.

[Lilawadee]

A bit off topic but Tony Clifton is a new dad. Coagulations!

Yesss!! Political differences aside, big congratulations to Tony, and Tony Jr!!

(And, while I'm being mushy anyway: I also noticed in other posts on other topics he actually makes a lot of sense.. )

[hammered]

I use it when I mean a very specific group.

Thailand might not be ready to liberal democracy, the next best thing would be a government accountable to the people, and Democrats are far better at that than TRT/PPP. If the "elites" want to see Democrats in power, it's the best available option at the moment.

The best option indeed for those "elites", and probably the best option for you, and quite likely even the best option for me.

The interesting thing with Democracy though is that each person gets exactly the same say in what they consider 'best', and currently there's millions of poorer people who vehemently disagree that the "Democrats" are best for them.

Bangkok 'elite' believes in democracy, or guided democracy, if you wish. The opposing side doesn't believe in power of the people, despite the name. It's very easy to choose which side to support.

If it was very easy, would this topic have run to one thousand, eight hundred and thirty eight posts? If it was very easy, wouldn't the "Democrat" party have won in a landslide?

Clearly it's not very easy, or even a little bit easy.

Agree but should add the rider that as in many democracies the idea of one persons vote being equal isnt really true. It usually depends on what constituency you are in unless of course a country has pure unadulterated proportional representation.

Edited to add: yes congratulations Tony

Edited January 14, 2008 by hammered

[Prakanong]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

[Khun Jean]

How many times i have to read that same 'old chestnut'. Grow up!

[sriracha john]

Now, this is unfortunate... !

Disqualified PPP candidates recapture seats

but certainly not unexpected...

and it increases the credibility of the EC... otherwise the vote buyers would have had an initial and not a

Really ? The EC is merely applying some stringent (and utterly lunatic) electoral laws... Like if an executive of a party is red carded then his whole party can be banned...

Anyway.

My point was : when it cheats, the PPP wins. And the PPP wins too when... it doesn't cheat !

Makes one wonder why they cheat in the first place then and risk jeopardizing everything...

Makes one wonder IF they cheat in the first place. (see the EC's latest stalling on permitting Yongyuth to view the incriminating video.)

Is there something new that I've missed? I did, however, see this earlier today:

Yongyuth has denied all charges against him and claimed he was set up by political opponents determined to ruin the PPP. He demanded to see the VCD in question, but when the evidence was made available to him on Friday, he simply didn't show up. No explanation was given.

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/14Jan2008_news18.php

[Prakanong]

How many times i have to read that same 'old chestnut'. Grow up!

Scroll past it then.

It was raised as an important point by the poster making the allegations as to why the building was burned or why would it be raised?

[John K]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

You are most certainly on a roll this week. Please copy where I said what you posted and re-post it. It seems my mind is slipping or is it that comprehension thing with you again.

[younghusband]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

You are most certainly on a roll this week. Please copy where I said what you posted and re-post it. It seems my mind is slipping or is it that comprehension thing with you again.

Oh dear I hope John K isn't backtracking here.If he needs more time to do research I think we should be generous, and by all means he can make interim reports on his provisional findings.Given that it seems now quite clear no arson was involved and the ownership is precisely as described by Prakanong, it will be really interesting to see the evidence that turns what appear to be irrefutable facts on their head.If however he is mistaken then a simple statement will suffice, and there's an end to it.

[John K]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

You are most certainly on a roll this week. Please copy where I said what you posted and re-post it. It seems my mind is slipping or is it that comprehension thing with you again.

Oh dear I hope John K isn't backtracking here.If he needs more time to do research I think we should be generous, and by all means he can make interim reports on his provisional findings.Given that it seems now quite clear no arson was involved and the ownership is precisely as described by Prakanong, it will be really interesting to see the evidence that turns what appear to be irrefutable facts on their head.If however he is mistaken then a simple statement will suffice, and there's an end to it.

YH, the same applies to you unless you prefer to believe other peoples misconceptions of fact.

[sbk]

Lets get back on topic and drop the personal stuff before I have to do housecleaning yet again, thanks.

[sriracha john]

meanwhile, back on the topic of the thread...

Three more yellow cards for PPP in Phrae

The Election Commission on Monday issued three yellow cards against People Power Party candidates from Phrae's Constituency 1 on grounds of indirect involvement in electoral fraud.

The three candidates, Worawat Uaapinyakul, Niyom Wiwatjithakul and Panhathai Serirak, will be allowed to contest the revote.

In a separate development, People Power leader Samak Sundaravej gave his statement to the EC rebutting his party's involvement in campaign violations in Yasothon.

The party was accused of linking to the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a banned party executive prohibited from swaying votes and involving in the electoral process.

- The Nation

[Old Man River]

My guess right now is that the final details of an uneasy agreement between PPP/Thaksin and the current rulers of the country are being worked out. Witness Anupongs remark on the potential defence minister amongst other things.

In all likelihood the red card/yellow card stuff is just a process to be worked throguh with as little drama as possible but probably buying negotiating time. After all, time is not on the side of the current bunch so they have to get the deal pinned down. If the deal cant be cut we then get into a risky situation and we shouldnt forget that there are already cases in the courts that could either result in the disolution of PPP or the annulmant of the election. The red card/yellow card stuff will shortly be over. The chance of the Yuth getting a red card and this leading to disolution will probably not come about because that would mean similar disolution of two other parties who had played the game with the Junta. This will also be good news for anyone insane or brave enough to give evidence against someone as vengeful and dangerous as Yuth. Guess the family business traffic will be back to full flow fairly soon.

Deal or no deal nothing will last. Too many parties thinking this is their last chance to get theirs. In Thailand, instability is stability.

[hammered]

My guess right now is that the final details of an uneasy agreement between PPP/Thaksin and the current rulers of the country are being worked out. Witness Anupongs remark on the potential defence minister amongst other things.

In all likelihood the red card/yellow card stuff is just a process to be worked throguh with as little drama as possible but probably buying negotiating time. After all, time is not on the side of the current bunch so they have to get the deal pinned down. If the deal cant be cut we then get into a risky situation and we shouldnt forget that there are already cases in the courts that could either result in the disolution of PPP or the annulmant of the election. The red card/yellow card stuff will shortly be over. The chance of the Yuth getting a red card and this leading to disolution will probably not come about because that would mean similar disolution of two other parties who had played the game with the Junta. This will also be good news for anyone insane or brave enough to give evidence against someone as vengeful and dangerous as Yuth. Guess the family business traffic will be back to full flow fairly soon.

Deal or no deal nothing will last. Too many parties thinking this is their last chance to get theirs. In Thailand, instability is stability.

A nice way of putting it

[John K]

My guess right now is that the final details of an uneasy agreement between PPP/Thaksin and the current rulers of the country are being worked out. Witness Anupongs remark on the potential defence minister amongst other things.

In all likelihood the red card/yellow card stuff is just a process to be worked throguh with as little drama as possible but probably buying negotiating time. After all, time is not on the side of the current bunch so they have to get the deal pinned down. If the deal cant be cut we then get into a risky situation and we shouldnt forget that there are already cases in the courts that could either result in the disolution of PPP or the annulmant of the election. The red card/yellow card stuff will shortly be over. The chance of the Yuth getting a red card and this leading to disolution will probably not come about because that would mean similar disolution of two other parties who had played the game with the Junta. This will also be good news for anyone insane or brave enough to give evidence against someone as vengeful and dangerous as Yuth. Guess the family business traffic will be back to full flow fairly soon.

Deal or no deal nothing will last. Too many parties thinking this is their last chance to get theirs. In Thailand, instability is stability.

A nice way of putting it

I don’t think 'deals' in the old sense are doable anymore. The new constitution tends to look like a double edge blade, but that certainly will not stop the desire to try and make them. As more examples of getting burned happen the more people will think more than once on making deals and particularly deals to circumvent the law.

[sriracha john]

WE have just watched a news item on UBC channel 7 ( TNN )

I was attracted to it as a mature man was talking to the police and crying, obviously very distressed.

Wife explains that he is the village PUYAI BAN in the Chang Rai area ?????

He reported the PPP for vote buying and has now received threats that certain unknown supporters ??? have told him they are going to kill not only him but his whole family and he has gone to the police in fear of their lives.

Not ficticious but real threats via telephone, letters and contact with masked locals or others ect.

He has asked the police to protect them and wants round the clock protection.

He looked maybe fiftyish and was very respectable in appearance.

marshbags

How many i wonder are already taken care of in one way or another and are withdrawing their statements.

This man obviously thought his safest route was to go direct to the police and not give in to the threats.

I hope he gets the support he deserves and he stays safe, along with his family.

Knowing Thai culture in this area, his safety remains very questionable to say the least. very indeed

Yongyuth's accuser seeks protection

Police accept Mae Chan kamnan's request after intimidating phone calls

A kamnan in tambon Chanchwa in Mae Chan district has sought police protection after testifying to the EC and leveling allegations of poll fraud against Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Deputy Leader of the People Power Party. Chaiwat Changkaokham yesterday asked Songtham Alapach, the Chiang Rai provincial Police Chief, to provide him with police protection as he feared for his life. He said he feared for his safety after testifying against the alleged electoral fraud committed by the PPP Deputy Leader. He was one of the 10 local leaders interrogated by the poll agency on Dec 26 over the alleged vote buying. Mr Chaiwat told the poll agency that prior to the election, he and the other nine local leaders flew to Bangkok to engage in some activities. Their activities were recorded on a VCD, which is now being used to back up allegations against Yongyuth. It is said to show the 10 local leaders holding a meeting with Yongyuth to discuss vote buying. Mr Chaiwat said following his testimony to the EC, a smear campaign was launched against him in an effort to discredit him. Meanwhile, Yongyuth said he would turn up at the poll agency today to watch the VCD with a team of editing professionals so that he can disprove the vote-buying claims. He was invited to view it on Friday, but failed to show up.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/13Jan2008_news07.php

=====================================================

Given Yongyuth's historical propensity for armed violence (leading a War on Drugs team to spray an elderly couple's home with a hail of gunfire)... Mr. Chaiwat's concerns are very real.

Hopefully, the questions regarding even the existence of the VCD have been answered.

Meanwhile, the Chiang Rai Provincial EC reports that the witness of People Power Party's MP candidate Yongyuth Tiyapairat's vote buying case has mysteriously disappeared. The officials are currently searching for the witness, and the disappearance could slow down the consideration of Yongyuth’s case.

- ThaiNews

[hammered]

WE have just watched a news item on UBC channel 7 ( TNN )

I was attracted to it as a mature man was talking to the police and crying, obviously very distressed.

Wife explains that he is the village PUYAI BAN in the Chang Rai area ?????

He reported the PPP for vote buying and has now received threats that certain unknown supporters ??? have told him they are going to kill not only him but his whole family and he has gone to the police in fear of their lives.

Not ficticious but real threats via telephone, letters and contact with masked locals or others ect.

He has asked the police to protect them and wants round the clock protection.

He looked maybe fiftyish and was very respectable in appearance.

marshbags

How many i wonder are already taken care of in one way or another and are withdrawing their statements.

This man obviously thought his safest route was to go direct to the police and not give in to the threats.

I hope he gets the support he deserves and he stays safe, along with his family.

Knowing Thai culture in this area, his safety remains very questionable to say the least. very indeed

Yongyuth's accuser seeks protection

Police accept Mae Chan kamnan's request after intimidating phone calls

A kamnan in tambon Chanchwa in Mae Chan district has sought police protection after testifying to the EC and leveling allegations of poll fraud against Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Deputy Leader of the People Power Party. Chaiwat Changkaokham yesterday asked Songtham Alapach, the Chiang Rai provincial Police Chief, to provide him with police protection as he feared for his life. He said he feared for his safety after testifying against the alleged electoral fraud committed by the PPP Deputy Leader. He was one of the 10 local leaders interrogated by the poll agency on Dec 26 over the alleged vote buying. Mr Chaiwat told the poll agency that prior to the election, he and the other nine local leaders flew to Bangkok to engage in some activities. Their activities were recorded on a VCD, which is now being used to back up allegations against Yongyuth. It is said to show the 10 local leaders holding a meeting with Yongyuth to discuss vote buying. Mr Chaiwat said following his testimony to the EC, a smear campaign was launched against him in an effort to discredit him. Meanwhile, Yongyuth said he would turn up at the poll agency today to watch the VCD with a team of editing professionals so that he can disprove the vote-buying claims. He was invited to view it on Friday, but failed to show up.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/13Jan2008_news07.php

=====================================================

Given Yongyuth's historical propensity for armed violence (leading a War on Drugs team to spray an elderly couple's home with a hail of gunfire)... Mr. Chaiwat's concerns are very real.

Hopefully, the questions regarding even the existence of the VCD have been answered.

Meanwhile, the Chiang Rai Provincial EC reports that the witness of People Power Party's MP candidate Yongyuth Tiyapairat's vote buying case has mysteriously disappeared. The officials are currently searching for the witness, and the disappearance could slow down the consideration of Yongyuth’s case.

- ThaiNews

Anyone giving any form of evidence against Yuth while still in Thailand would have to be totally insane or incredibly brave. That they stayed in Chaing Rai is even more dangerous. Maybe they can reappear with a changed story and then continue to lead a relatively normal life.

[John K]

I guess that is where a pre-recorded testimony would come in real handy.

[blaze]

Now, this is unfortunate... !

Disqualified PPP candidates recapture seats

but certainly not unexpected...

and it increases the credibility of the EC... otherwise the vote buyers would have had an initial and not a

Really ? The EC is merely applying some stringent (and utterly lunatic) electoral laws... Like if an executive of a party is red carded then his whole party can be banned...

Anyway.

My point was : when it cheats, the PPP wins. And the PPP wins too when... it doesn't cheat !

Makes one wonder why they cheat in the first place then and risk jeopardizing everything...

Makes one wonder IF they cheat in the first place. (see the EC's latest stalling on permitting Yongyuth to view the incriminating video.)

Is there something new that I've missed? I did, however, see this earlier today:

Yongyuth has denied all charges against him and claimed he was set up by political opponents determined to ruin the PPP. He demanded to see the VCD in question, but when the evidence was made available to him on Friday, he simply didn't show up. No explanation was given.

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/14Jan2008_news18.php

I said 'view' when I should have said 'examine' - sorry. Today's Nation claims that an EC subcomittee has not yet decided if Yongyuth can examine the VCD. This is from today's Nation hardcopy (p4a- 'EC member may face probe")- couldn't find it on the site so had to rely on (failing) memory.

Edited January 14, 2008 by blaze

[soundman]

Anyone giving any form of evidence against Yuth while still in Thailand would have to be totally insane or incredibly brave. That they stayed in Chaing Rai is even more dangerous. Maybe they can reappear with a changed story and then continue to lead a relatively normal life.

If this guy is so dangerous, why does the EC allow him to run for a political position, and why do the voting public give him even more power when they can withold it from him at the ballot box?

Like giving a madman a loaded gun in my book....

[blaze]

Anyone giving any form of evidence against Yuth while still in Thailand would have to be totally insane or incredibly brave. That they stayed in Chaing Rai is even more dangerous. Maybe they can reappear with a changed story and then continue to lead a relatively normal life.

If this guy is so dangerous, why does the EC allow him to run for a political position, and why do the voting public give him even more power when they can withold it from him at the ballot box?

Like giving a madman a loaded gun in my book....

Not disputing that Yuth is an unsavory character- but powerful people make powerful enemies on their road to the top- and enemies in Thailand, as we all know, will resort to pretty much anything to bring down their adversaries.

[meemiathai]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

You are most certainly on a roll this week. Please copy where I said what you posted and re-post it. It seems my mind is slipping or is it that comprehension thing with you again.

Oh dear I hope John K isn't backtracking here.If he needs more time to do research I think we should be generous, and by all means he can make interim reports on his provisional findings.Given that it seems now quite clear no arson was involved and the ownership is precisely as described by Prakanong, it will be really interesting to see the evidence that turns what appear to be irrefutable facts on their head.If however he is mistaken then a simple statement will suffice, and there's an end to it.

What? No Arson? Thaksin must have paid the police this time again! Really have to wonder how much money thaksin has.

Never mind. When thaksin becomes PM again, he can rip the thais off again!

[John K]

If it was not arson then that should go down well with the superstitious Thais.

[blaze]

Oh by the way, thaksin having to pay twice is going to make him broke!

Let's see which building they are going to burn this time!

Which building did they burn last time?

Please do not say you are back to the old chesnut of Cyber world and its supposed arson

Not to worry though John k is reporting back to the board by Feb 1st with conclusive proof it is not in fact owned by TCC Land the JV between Charoen and Captiland and in fact these people are lying.

You are most certainly on a roll this week. Please copy where I said what you posted and re-post it. It seems my mind is slipping or is it that comprehension thing with you again.

Oh dear I hope John K isn't backtracking here.If he needs more time to do research I think we should be generous, and by all means he can make interim reports on his provisional findings.Given that it seems now quite clear no arson was involved and the ownership is precisely as described by Prakanong, it will be really interesting to see the evidence that turns what appear to be irrefutable facts on their head.If however he is mistaken then a simple statement will suffice, and there's an end to it.

What? No Arson? Thaksin must have paid the police this time again! Really have to wonder how much money thaksin has.

Never mind. When thaksin becomes PM again, he can rip the thais off again!

Edit: reply withdrawn because it was gratuitously stupid.

Edited January 14, 2008 by blaze

[Plus]

I use it when I mean a very specific group.

Thailand might not be ready to liberal democracy, the next best thing would be a government accountable to the people, and Democrats are far better at that than TRT/PPP. If the "elites" want to see Democrats in power, it's the best available option at the moment.

The best option indeed for those "elites", and probably the best option for you, and quite likely even the best option for me.

The interesting thing with Democracy though is that each person gets exactly the same say in what they consider 'best', and currently there's millions of poorer people who vehemently disagree that the "Democrats" are best for them.

I wasn't talking to them.

Bangkok 'elite' believes in democracy, or guided democracy, if you wish. The opposing side doesn't believe in power of the people, despite the name. It's very easy to choose which side to support.

If it was very easy, would this topic have run to one thousand, eight hundred and thirty eight posts? If it was very easy, wouldn't the "Democrat" party have won in a landslide?

Clearly it's not very easy, or even a little bit easy.

You assume that Thais want liberal democracy, that they want to be in charge, want the power.

In real life they want their pooyais to take care of them and their needs. In return they don't question what the pooyais are up to - not their business to meddle in big people's affairs, and it can be dangerous.

In effect they elect new masters instead of servants. Maybe the word "public master" is more suitable than "public servant"

here.

Middle classes want the government to be accountable and listen to reasonable opinions from professional circles - academics, lawyers, economists, and civil activists that represent them.

If farmers are similarly interested in national politics, they are severely underrepresented. So far none of the rural activists has gathered enough support to make their voice heard.

"We want Thaksin to come and resque the country, he has money, he can help" is not an example of democratic thinking but that's the voice of the majority, they just don't want to be ready to liberate themselves from feudalism yet.

It's a ridiculous proposition, they would be put down like dogs for standing up to local powers, central government can't protect anyone out there.

So they go along, searching for the perfect master to surrender to, and it won't change anytime soon.

[blaze]

I use it when I mean a very specific group.

Thailand might not be ready to liberal democracy, the next best thing would be a government accountable to the people, and Democrats are far better at that than TRT/PPP. If the "elites" want to see Democrats in power, it's the best available option at the moment.

The best option indeed for those "elites", and probably the best option for you, and quite likely even the best option for me.

The interesting thing with Democracy though is that each person gets exactly the same say in what they consider 'best', and currently there's millions of poorer people who vehemently disagree that the "Democrats" are best for them.

I wasn't talking to them.

Bangkok 'elite' believes in democracy, or guided democracy, if you wish. The opposing side doesn't believe in power of the people, despite the name. It's very easy to choose which side to support.

If it was very easy, would this topic have run to one thousand, eight hundred and thirty eight posts? If it was very easy, wouldn't the "Democrat" party have won in a landslide?

Clearly it's not very easy, or even a little bit easy.

You assume that Thais want liberal democracy, that they want to be in charge, want the power.

In real life they want their pooyais to take care of them and their needs. In return they don't question what the pooyais are up to - not their business to meddle in big people's affairs, and it can be dangerous.

In effect they elect new masters instead of servants. Maybe the word "public master" is more suitable than "public servant"

here.

Middle classes want the government to be accountable and listen to reasonable opinions from professional circles - academics, lawyers, economists, and civil activists that represent them.

If farmers are similarly interested in national politics, they are severely underrepresented. So far none of the rural activists has gathered enough support to make their voice heard.

"We want Thaksin to come and resque the country, he has money, he can help" is not an example of democratic thinking but that's the voice of the majority, they just don't want to be ready to liberate themselves from feudalism yet.

It's a ridiculous proposition, they would be put down like dogs for standing up to local powers, central government can't protect anyone out there.

So they go along, searching for the perfect master to surrender to, and it won't change anytime soon.

I think that's a pretty good summation of the paternalistic nature of Thai society. But I don't see that it will last forever- or even much longer- it is no different than the feudal European concept of noblesse oblige- and that's gone.

But as with noblesse oblige, the real beneficiaries are not the masses- they are the secluded minority- the aristocrats and hangers ons. For this reason, the strongest resistance to a change in this pattern (ie, introduction of liberal democracy- will not come from the masses- but from the masters-and they got a lot of power- including the power to define and institutionalize the culture that defends this pattern.

But then too- it is so deeply engrained- that maybe Plus is right- maybe it's not going anywhere soon- even without obstruction from the masters. Maybe.

Edited January 14, 2008 by blaze

[Prakanong]

I use it when I mean a very specific group.

Thailand might not be ready to liberal democracy, the next best thing would be a government accountable to the people, and Democrats are far better at that than TRT/PPP. If the "elites" want to see Democrats in power, it's the best available option at the moment.

The best option indeed for those "elites", and probably the best option for you, and quite likely even the best option for me.

The interesting thing with Democracy though is that each person gets exactly the same say in what they consider 'best', and currently there's millions of poorer people who vehemently disagree that the "Democrats" are best for them.

I wasn't talking to them.

Bangkok 'elite' believes in democracy, or guided democracy, if you wish. The opposing side doesn't believe in power of the people, despite the name. It's very easy to choose which side to support.

If it was very easy, would this topic have run to one thousand, eight hundred and thirty eight posts? If it was very easy, wouldn't the "Democrat" party have won in a landslide?

Clearly it's not very easy, or even a little bit easy.

You assume that Thais want liberal democracy, that they want to be in charge, want the power.

In real life they want their pooyais to take care of them and their needs. In return they don't question what the pooyais are up to - not their business to meddle in big people's affairs, and it can be dangerous.

In effect they elect new masters instead of servants. Maybe the word "public master" is more suitable than "public servant"

here.

Middle classes want the government to be accountable and listen to reasonable opinions from professional circles - academics, lawyers, economists, and civil activists that represent them.

If farmers are similarly interested in national politics, they are severely underrepresented. So far none of the rural activists has gathered enough support to make their voice heard.

"We want Thaksin to come and resque the country, he has money, he can help" is not an example of democratic thinking but that's the voice of the majority, they just don't want to be ready to liberate themselves from feudalism yet.

It's a ridiculous proposition, they would be put down like dogs for standing up to local powers, central government can't protect anyone out there.

So they go along, searching for the perfect master to surrender to, and it won't change anytime soon.

I think that's a pretty good summation of the paternalistic nature of Thai society. But I don't see that it will last forever- or even much longer- it is no different than the feudal European concept of noblesse oblige- and that's gone.

But as with noblesse oblige, the real beneficiaries are not the masses- they are the secluded minority- the aristocrats and hangers ons. For this reason, the strongest resistance to a change in this pattern (ie, introduction of liberal democracy- will not come from the masses- but from the masters-and they got a lot of power- including the power to define and institutionalize the culture that defends this pattern.

and from this type of system you get the likes of Suharto who Harry Lee praised today and said the corruption was worth it for conntrol in the country - these Asian values are really great.

Maybe Thailand needs a Suharto now?

Maybe another Sarit, Pibul or Kittikachorn would do - as ultra-nationalist as possible though so they nationalise all western owned business's and property without compensation..

[Plus]

There's a small question of middle classes opposition to these types.

While farmers are in the majority they can elect any dictator they like, but it won't last long. Urbanites are no under feudal control anymore and they ARE very assertive if provoked.

But this urbanisation has its own negatives, like break down of communities.

80% of Singapoerans don't know names of their neighbors. Imagine something like this in Thailand.

[Prakanong]

There's a small question of middle classes opposition to these types.

While farmers are in the majority they can elect any dictator they like, but it won't last long. Urbanites are no under feudal control anymore and they ARE very assertive if provoked.

But this urbanisation has its own negatives, like break down of communities.

80% of Singapoerans don't know names of their neighbors. Imagine something like this in Thailand.

And they are running campaigns in the govt mouthpiece The Straits Times to get you yo know your neighbour

I would but they turn up about once every two months for two nights then disappear back to Indonesia!

To be honest though while some Thai conurbations might get bigger I doubt there will be the large scale urbanisation expected - globalisation and its benefits will pass by most Thai's outside a few industrialised corridor(s) from say Ayuthuya down through Bangkok to Rayong.

The rest will remain untouched and mainly rural with the larget market town it mostly calls cities now.

There are the clusters of the auto biz and a few others (are they still doing hard disks or have they moved to China yet?) but while there has been an increase in FDI its not that much, they are losing out to their competitors for a number of reasons including political risk, labour costs and talent plus the restrictive trade policies Thailand has.

According to the Baker book domestic capital has all but dried up except in property and media which is very protected.