2008 Property Outlook

[ray08]

Now that we are in a new year with a new government ?? ,it would be great to hear from people about their view on the Bangkok property market for 2008 , Up , Down , Oversupply , Undersupply , Rental bargains ,etc, it will be intersting to see from the views what actually happens during the year ,

My view is we will have a rental oversupply on a lot of the new projects being completed

[cclub75]

Now that we are in a new year with a new government ?? ,it would be great to hear from people about their view on the Bangkok property market for 2008 , Up , Down , Oversupply , Undersupply , Rental bargains ,etc, it will be intersting to see from the views what actually happens during the year ,

My view is we will have a rental oversupply on a lot of the new projects being completed

New government ? Where ?

The formation of the new government could take a long time... a very long time... Check some political threads on TV.

As for real estate, a few comments :

-I don't buy... this kind of magical way of thinking : "elections on december 23. Wizz. Flosh. Paf. Problems solved. People are going to buy condos by 1000s on january the first in mass hysteria". What does it mean ? It makes no sense. And especially in Thailand.

-we are heading i think toward a nice oversupply in Bangkok (housing and commercial).

-but beyond all the technicalities and other particularisms of the thai market (ah.... they love so much to be different, right ?)... the bottom line is : a recession is cocking in the US/Europe... And to think that the bad wind will stop at the thai borders it's a that point pure wishfull thinking.

-therefore : even by making a lot of efforts (I really try)... I can't see any rozy colors for the thai market in 2008. Sorry.

[Pib]

My prediction (gut feel) is the property market goes sideways to maybe a few percent (only a few) up in value.

However, my projection is probably about as good as the many real estate experts that say the market will go up significantly and the less-than-many real estate experts which say the market might go down.

While costs will go up this year to built homes/condo's, it's probably going to be hard for real estate companies to raise prices much in 2008 due to the many political and economic uncertainties, both within and outside of Thailand. Plus, the real estate companies will have to work harder than ever to make that sale.

[quiksilva]

The truth is nobody knows for sure. It all depends on politics. Anyone who says anything else shouldn't be in this business.

I do agree with your prediction that we will have to work harder though, we are always trying to do that!

[samtam]

I agree it is very difficult to see the property market running away with itself, which is why I have queried so often the ability of the super high end condo developers to get the prices they are selling at. There is much uncertainty in the market, and any perceived resolution to that by the election is clearly not coming through. In the short to medium (2-5 year) horizon how can this position possibly become clearer, when the politics of Thailand will be subject to the change of the establishment. There are certainly not the returns here that are seen in other developing countries, so I cannot see why people would start investing as though this had changed.

[quiksilva]

I agree with most of what you said but would add that there are always good opportunities out there, providing one is prepared to look hard enough.

[fletchsmile]

p34 of the following had some thoughts on property in Thailand. Source = ING fund managers

http://www.ingfunds.co.th/EN/upload/news/addfile-184.pdf

"competition among big players", "condos in good locations... solid sales", "cost pressures on materials and oil", "property sector still laggards... and attractive valuations" etc

[imlavinia]

Hi!

What about the real estate economy in Menorca? Are their any predictions about the place whether it will boom or not.

[quiksilva]

Menorca is in Spain, perhaps you could try a board with experts on that market for answers.

Fletchsmile, thanks for the document, very useful insights there. I know the ING Funds guys well, highly recommended reading!