Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008

[LaoPo]

"Lao Po Bing" Filling Recipe? (Dong gwa yung)

Chinese name spelled in English: Lao Po Bing (sometimes Lao Po Beng) Common English names: "Concubine's Cakes" or "Wife's Cakes"

http://forums.egullet.org/index.php?showtopic=71419

Is my Forum name fascinating you, Naam ? It's there since Oct 29th, 2004.

I take it you're not trying to insult me, are you, because some of your 4 posts are a bit childish for a man your age....? Maybe you're having a bad day ?

LaoPo means: (my) wife in Mandarin Chinese, no matter what you're trying to make of it.

Surprises me you needed 4 posts and a lot of searching and I wonder what it has to do with the topic ?

LaoPo

[NovaBlue05]

Cnn News tonight Paulson said that 92% of mortgages are current, 6 % are behind on payments 2% are currenly in foreclosure .

Had someone ask me, years ago before the subprime media saturation, what percent of mortgages I thought were into foreclosure, I probably would have guessed 5%. I had a hard time understanding how some people could buy a home in this area....much less hang onto it.

[KhunG]

"No one loves the messenger who brings bad news" - Sophocles - But everybody loves a messenger with good news - LaoPo -"

For some, bad news is hard to swallow...

LaoPo

It's hard to swallow because your message is false. You aren't a messenger, you are a propagandist. While you are busy patting youself on the back that you're just the messenger, it is possible to show that your message is false by reading the very links in your post.

If so many Americans here see your posts as anti-American, maybe you should lay off the conceit and realize that they may be right.

Edited March 28, 2008 by KhunG

[KhunG]

Cnn News tonight Paulson said that 92% of mortgages are current, 6 % are behind on payments 2% are currenly in foreclosure .

Of course he also says he supports a strong dollar.

Should be interesting to see if the G-7 step into this mess next month

The latest numbers on current forclosures are less than 1% of mortgages. Please note that is mortgages, not households. Many people own their homes outright. My parents, grandmother and sister each do, and I plan to within about four years.

I've copied the listing for the number one market for forclosures in the country, from a site that is current as of 3/27/2008. Please note that the number of mortgages in forclosure there is just over 1/2 of 1%, and is listed at 7 times the national average which is less than 1/10 of 1%.

Greeley, Colorado-The median home price in Greeley is $163,700, and the portion of houses in foreclosure is 0.59%, which has grown 14.7% since January of this year. Sluggish wages as well as a high amount of residential development and risky loans that have been offered to many residents are the reasons for Greeley’s foreclosure rate (which is 7 times the national average).

Edited March 28, 2008 by KhunG

[LaoPo]

"No one loves the messenger who brings bad news" - Sophocles - But everybody loves a messenger with good news - LaoPo -"

For some, bad news is hard to swallow...

LaoPo

It's hard to swallow because your message is false. You aren't a messenger, you are a propagandist. While you are busy patting youself on the back that your just the messenger, it is possible to show that your message is false by reading the very links in your post.

If so many Americans here see your posts as anti-American, maybe you should lay off the conceit and realize that they may be right.

"If so many Americans here" see my posts as anti-American they can't read (or do not wish to read the truth) and mis-interpret the message(s), but don't blame me.

That would be the same if those Americans would blame their own Press, bringing bad economical/financial news. Go to the better websites and newspapers and read what's going on in the world of economics and 'haute' finance.

I repeat: read my posts 184 and 188 but if you don't, STOP making accusations at my person, will you ?

I repeat: I am NOT anti-America or -Americans.

Can you read ?

That those Americans are sensitive about their own country is quite understandable and being proud of America is nothing wrong with, but denying there are huge problems, is plain silly.

If you claim I am a propagandist*, you must have a cause or country I am making propaganda for....? I'm curious, so: tell me.

* Propaganda; I don't think you realize what you're saying, maybe you are too young to realize....but be my guest:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

The trouble with this forum is that some people's egos get in the way of quite sensible and interesting discussions. I've only been back here for an hour or two and I'm fed up already with the petty bickering already. I don't know how you all can stomach it. See you in another few months. Wonder if the Global Correction thread will still be active

Edited March 28, 2008 by sonicdragon

[Naam]

"Lao Po Bing" Filling Recipe? (Dong gwa yung)

Chinese name spelled in English: Lao Po Bing (sometimes Lao Po Beng) Common English names: "Concubine's Cakes" or "Wife's Cakes"

http://forums.egullet.org/index.php?showtopic=71419

Is my Forum name fascinating you, Naam ? It's there since Oct 29th, 2004.

I take it you're not trying to insult me, are you, because some of your 4 posts are a bit childish for a man your age....? Maybe you're having a bad day ?

LaoPo means: (my) wife in Mandarin Chinese, no matter what you're trying to make of it.

Surprises me you needed 4 posts and a lot of searching and I wonder what it has to do with the topic ?

LaoPo

you mentioned "look at my signature" three times today and you mentioned it several times before. i was wondering for what purpose, "googled" and posted some of the results.

using "my wife" or "concubine cake" as "signature" seems quite strange to me. but perhaps i am too stupid to get the meaning besides... can you explain what your "signature" has to do with the topic "will the dollar rebound?"

Edited March 28, 2008 by Naam

[KhunG]

I repeat: read my posts 184 and 188 but if you don't, STOP making accusations at my person, will you ?

I repeat: I am NOT anti-America or -Americans.

Can you read ?

I not only read your posts, I responded to them. Can you read?

For instance I pointed out that in 184 you claimed an article said thousands of people were living in tents, when the article said "about 300" Can you read?

Your claims of not being anti-American in your posts, and being a messenger rather than one who distorts facts to present and anti-American world view are also false. You do have a rather amazingly inflated ego, accusing others of not being able to read or comprehend when you can't tell the difference between 300 and thousands, or illegal aliens fleeing to Canada and Americans economic refugees.

But ok. I'm done. You and your co-bashers sit in other countries claiming America is doomed, our infrastructure is decaying, our education is crud, etc. Meanwhile I will continue to live in America, where I see our infrastructure expanding, where I know our standard of living is higher (I've lived and worked in Europe, Canada, the middle east and Asia, so this is first hand knowledge), and I continually meet people who come from around the world to study in our schools or just to better their lives. The US economy is in a slow down after an extended period of growth that exceeded the rest of the developed world, and you guys are p*ssing yourselves in joy. You are too invested in your doom mongering to see reality. Have a good time.

[LaoPo]

you mentioned "look at my signature" three times today and you mentioned it several times before. i was wondering for what purpose, "googled" and posted some of the results.

using "my wife" or "concubine cake" as "signature" seems quite strange to me. but perhaps i am too stupid to get the meaning besides... can you explain what your "signature" has to do with the topic "will the dollar rebound?"

You won't succeed Naam, trying to insult me.

It escapes you that, according to the ThaiVisa signature opportunities, one can use more words than just one as a signature. You do it yourself; that's called a signature.

You know very well that I get attacked by some about bad financial news I bring. People attack me personally for it. That says more about them than me.

Thats why I used, as a signature, a thousands years' old saying by Sophocles, also used by Shakespeare, much later though:

"No one loves the messenger who brings bad news" - Sophocles

and added my own:

But everybody loves a messenger with good news - LaoPo -

Now, if the irony escapes you.....and you just focus on the word "LaoPo" that's up to you.

Are we done now ?

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

I repeat: read my posts 184 and 188 but if you don't, STOP making accusations at my person, will you ?

I repeat: I am NOT anti-America or -Americans.

Can you read ?

I not only read your posts, I responded to them. Can you read?

For instance I pointed out that in 184 you claimed an article said thousands of people were living in tents, when the article said "about 300" Can you read?

Your claims of not being anti-American in your posts, and being a messenger rather than one who distorts facts to present and anti-American world view are also false. You do have a rather amazingly inflated ego, accusing others of not being able to read or comprehend when you can't tell the difference between 300 and thousands, or illegal aliens fleeing to Canada and Americans economic refugees.

But ok. I'm done. You and your co-bashers sit in other countries claiming America is doomed, our infrastructure is decaying, our education is crud, etc. Meanwhile I will continue to live in America, where I see our infrastructure expanding, where I know our standard of living is higher (I've lived and worked in Europe, Canada, the middle east and Asia, so this is first hand knowledge), and I continually meet people who come from around the world to study in our schools or just to better their lives. The US economy is in a slow down after an extended period of growth that exceeded the rest of the developed world, and you guys are p*ssing yourselves in joy. You are too invested in your doom mongering to see reality. Have a good time.

Yes, I can read Sir, but than you missed my post # 186 where I wrote and apologized, in this post:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895293

"* The 300 people number is in one location -LA- only. But if there aren't anymore people living in tents, than that's good and I'm reading wrong."

About working in......we can shake hands; I built my own businesses in Canada, US, several countries in EU and Far East.

Have a nice day and don't take the messenger so personally with his messages (articles from your country, mostly), it's not word your rising blood pressure, is it ?

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

you mentioned "look at my signature" three times today and you mentioned it several times before. i was wondering for what purpose, "googled" and posted some of the results.

using "my wife" or "concubine cake" as "signature" seems quite strange to me. but perhaps i am too stupid to get the meaning besides... can you explain what your "signature" has to do with the topic "will the dollar rebound?"

You won't succeed Naam, trying to insult me.

It escapes you that, according to the ThaiVisa signature opportunities, one can use more words than just one as a signature. You do it yourself; that's called a signature.

You know very well that I get attacked by some about bad financial news I bring. People attack me personally for it. That says more about them than me.

Thats why I used, as a signature, a thousands years' old saying by Sophocles, also used by Shakespeare, much later though:

"No one loves the messenger who brings bad news" - Sophocles

and added my own:

But everybody loves a messenger with good news - LaoPo -

Now, if the irony escapes you.....and you just focus on the word "LaoPo" that's up to you.

Are we done now ?

LaoPo

Naam isn't American and he ridicules you as well. Do yourself a favor and stop TRYING to make a valid argument. You are making quite a fool of yourself and it isn't like the tree in the forest that falls when nobody is around.

Do you have an original thought?

[LaoPo]

Naam isn't American and he ridicules you as well. Do yourself a favor and stop TRYING to make a valid argument. You are making quite a fool of yourself and it isn't like the tree in the forest that falls when nobody is around.

Do you have an original thought?

You have to do better than that to insult me.

LaoPo

[johnnyk]

Will the dollar rebound in 2008.

Yes it will if....

the current account deficit can be moved into the black

the Iraq war and its downstream costs can be met (some estimates are $3 trillion)

the housing crisis can be resolved

manufacturing jobs can be brought back onshore....

Its already the end of March, so only 9 months left to get things done.

[johnh101]

The trouble with this forum is that some people's egos get in the way of quite sensible and interesting discussions. I've only been back here for an hour or two and I'm fed up already with the petty bickering already. I don't know how you all can stomach it. See you in another few months. Wonder if the Global Correction thread will still be active

I am with you on that one. This was once a quite interesting and educational topic.

[Naam]

Are we done now ?

LaoPo

if that is the case i apologise. however, the signature you mentioned does not show!. i remember that during my initial set up i entered signature too (something like "per Asia ad astra", but this signature does not show either.

facit: don't blame me for the shortcomings of my browser or the TV software or whatever "signature suppressor" plays its games.

[expatgaz]

I'll be quite honest,I've got a rake of USD and Iam worried abt it.Normally I would say its a cycle thing etc etc but as long as this Iraq thing is going on it just looks like getting worse and Iam worried abt it.Is my money going to become worthless ????

[britmaveric]

Well Iraq thing will be going on for decades - remember Iraq is the new base for yank military ala Europe after WWII.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Found this to be interesting, the crash was a drop of 2.5%

Many people date the beginning of the Depression at October 24, 1929, Black Thursday, the day the stock market crashed. This was indeed a traumatic day for those who owned stock as sales volume broke all records. But the decline in overall stock prices was only about 2.5%, from 261.97 to 255.39 as measured by the New York Times index of 50 stocks. Most of the decline still laid in the future; the market hit bottom on July 7 of 1932 when the Times index was only 33.98, a decline of over 89% from its high of 311.90 of September 19, 1929.

http://ingrimayne.com/econ/EconomicCatastr...Depression.html

[VegasVic]

Ahoy ! I'm back in the LOS for a few days tying up loose ends.

This subforum is as lively as ever :-)

I had a few comments on things I read in various threads here, in no particular order.....

Foreclosures grab the headlines, for obvious reasons, but they have had farily small impact on things so far (in part, of course, because the foreclosure rate is low overall). The more important factor is delinquencies, which are running at a rate close to 6%, which is substantial. Many asset backed securities are pass-through, so they are directly affected when people can't (or won't) pay. On average sub-prime borrowers tend to default, or be late, before prime borrowers. Also, many sub-prime loans were made with teaser rates that are now resetting. This is all old news really, but that's why sub-prime was the first domino to fall. Another quite worrying factor is that when looking at the whole housing market, total equity is less than 50% which is staggering when you consider that there are many homeowners with no mortgage at all, or just a very small one. With more and more forecasts of further falls in home prices with no recovery in sight to two years, it looks quite grim. by the way I would recommend reading this latest letter from Howard Marks to Oaktree investors:

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/document...reememo0803.pdf

These two sections are a very good summary of the current situation:

• Equity capital was provided to would-be leveraged entities.

• Debt was readily available for them to use in expanding their total capital and thus their ability to pursue profit.

• This combined capital was used to purchase assets, forcing prices higher.

• Price appreciation caused the entities' equity to expand at a faster rate thanks to their financial leverage.

• The increases in equity were matched by further increases in borrowings.

• In fact, the good performance convinced lenders to increase the amount of leverage they would supply per dollar of equity. This meant the entities could grow their portfolios even faster than the rates at which equity capital flowed in and assets appreciated.

• Further, because of the seeming impregnability of the leveraged entities' profitability, risk aversion shrank and the risk premiums and returns demanded by lenders declined. Leverage became cheaper and thus even more attractive.

• As is typical of virtuous circles, everything ran smoothly . . . for a while: additional equity flowed in; it was leveraged up increasingly; buying caused assets to appreciate further; and the upward spiral continued.

and then:

• Something causes asset prices to weaken.

• Now the leverage works in reverse, causing the entities' equity to shrink faster than the rate of decline in asset prices, and their ratios of borrowings to assets to rise.

• Lenders, worried about declining asset prices, either call in their loans or refuse to roll over debt when it matures. In some cases, the entities' now-shrunken collateral fails a market value test and triggers a margin call, which can be met only through the posting of additional collateral (which usually isn't available) or sales of assets

(which add to market weakness).

• Further, with the world suddenly feeling much riskier, lenders demand increased risk premiums, raising the cost of borrowed funds and further impairing borrowers' economics.

• Equity investors – panicked by the combination of asset price declines, leveraged equity losses and margin calls – withdraw equity capital to the extent they can. The sight of investors lining up at the withdrawal window, and often being told they can't have their money, adds to the negative climate.

• The need to raise cash with which to satisfy the demands of lenders and equity investors places further downward pressure on asset prices, reinforcing what is suddenly a vicious circle. Fire sales of collateral add to this pressure.

• In particular, think what happens to banks. In this negative environment, it's hard to imagine these highly leveraged entities extending credit, given that ( a ) banks' equity is shrinking, ( b ) they feel they may need the money themselves, and ( c ) they fear further losses on loans and assets.

One thing I can agree with Vic about is that hedge funds have a lot to answer for. Regulation is called for. Further regulation of broker-dealers is also called for too IMHO, which is great for me, coz that's the business I'm in now, kind-of.....internal audit / risk management.

People should be careful what they wish for. Right now the best thing that could happen to the US economy is for the dollar to gradually weaken further (not dramatically), and inflation to creep up to the 5-7% range. This would help to solve a lot of problems. If gold, oil and other commodities collapse it is a very ominous sign that we could be heading for a deflationary spiral - the credit crisis is a massive deflationary force. Gold in the 800-1000 range and oil in the 80-100 range is a good sign, not a bad one.

Another thing I can agree with Vic on is that the UK is in possibly worse shape that the US. But I'd have to disagree about Euro-land as a whole - there are a few basket cases (Spain for example), but in general it looks in much better shape than the US and UK.

SD

Sonic, we actually agree on these issues more than you realize I think the only major disagreement we might have would be the scope and duration of the problem. Sensationalistic articles and bad news always sells more newspapers, or I guess as the modern world turns gets more internet subscribers. Home inventories in the U.S. actually shrank last month and while a month does not make a trend the situation is looking a little better for home sellers. You will have no problem getting me to agree that there are a few markets out there, Florida in particular that may indeed take 2-3 years to recover and while I might put a few areas of California and Phoenix AZ in that same recovery scenario (perhaps a little faster than Florida), most markets in the U.S. were much less affected and will recover much faster. Las Vegas nearly saw a doubling of real estate values from early 2004 -mid 2006 (and has backed off about 20%), but you need to realize that Las Vegas was a very undervalued market before this all occured and Las Vegas is also a very unique market for three reasons (1) Las Vegas has been the fastest growing city in the U.S. for the last 20 years (2) Las Vegas also attracts many foriegn buyers, especially since the dollar has weakened so much (3) Las Vegas has a very low unemployment rate and very good wages, and currently has an enormous ammount of commercial construction going on and more major projects planned to start later this year and next (I touched on this in one of my past posts but I cannot remember the forum). As far as the resets, they are and will continue to be a problem, but with Sec. Paulson and Rep.Barney Frank (an odd couple if I ever saw one) agreeing on ways to mitigate some of this and a Democratic congress clamoring for a major bailout for unscupulous lenders and irresponsible home buyers, I'm certain that this will all turn out much better and recover faster than the doomsday news articles make out. As far as the Euro-land situation is concerned, that was something relayed to me from a highly placed individual at Goldman Sachs who has been a friend for many years. His view seemed to be that many countries in Europe will be having a real estate crisis of their own by the end of this year or early next year, and I don't think he was refering to GB, Ireland or Spain, as those countries are already experiencing problems. I recall discussing Germany in particular with him and when I mentioned how the strong Euro-weak dollar must be killing German exports, he said that while exports to the U.S. were dropping and would likely continue to do so, that Germany has a very strong export market to Russia, but if Russian demand were to drop (I assumed that he thought it would) that unemployment in Germany could rise quite quickly and then he mentioned something about potential labor unrest (I guess unions?). Anyway, the European arena is not my forte and Germany and the rest of Europe could very well have a robust economy for years to come, I will leave it to the Europeans on this board to hash all that out as I have no dog in that fight On a side note, although lao po and I have fought back and forth on many TV forums over the past year, I am saddened to see him go through such a public breakdown as seems to be occuring currently, and I hope his situation improves very soon

[britmaveric]

As of September 24, 2002, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 27% of the value it held on January 1, 2001: a total loss of 5 trillion dollars. It should be noted that the Dow Jones had already lost 9% of its peak value at the start of 2001, while the Nasdaq had lost 44%. At the March 2000 top, the sum in valuation of all NYSE-listed companies stood at $12.9 trillion, and the valuation sum of all NASDAQ-listed companies stood at $5.4 trillion, for a total market value of $18.3 trillion. The NASDAQ subsequently lost nearly 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% to reach the October 2002 lows. The total market value of NYSE (7.2) and NASDAQ (1.8) companies at that time was only $9 trillion, for an overall market loss of $9.3 trillion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002

Seems 1987 was far worse than 1929 stock crash.

http://www.mdleasing.com/djia-losses.htm

[lannarebirth]

As of September 24, 2002, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 27% of the value it held on January 1, 2001: a total loss of 5 trillion dollars. It should be noted that the Dow Jones had already lost 9% of its peak value at the start of 2001, while the Nasdaq had lost 44%. At the March 2000 top, the sum in valuation of all NYSE-listed companies stood at $12.9 trillion, and the valuation sum of all NASDAQ-listed companies stood at $5.4 trillion, for a total market value of $18.3 trillion. The NASDAQ subsequently lost nearly 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% to reach the October 2002 lows. The total market value of NYSE (7.2) and NASDAQ (1.8) companies at that time was only $9 trillion, for an overall market loss of $9.3 trillion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002

Seems 1987 was far worse than 1929 stock crash.

http://www.mdleasing.com/djia-losses.htm

The 1987 crash was merely a fast, hard correction in an uptrend that lasted 18 years. Devastating for short term traders positioned wrong, but inconsequential to "long term investors", save for it being a buying opportunity. The affects of the 1929 crash were still being felt 20 years later, as it was a LT cycle top.

Edited March 29, 2008 by lannarebirth

[siamamerican]

As of September 24, 2002, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 27% of the value it held on January 1, 2001: a total loss of 5 trillion dollars. It should be noted that the Dow Jones had already lost 9% of its peak value at the start of 2001, while the Nasdaq had lost 44%. At the March 2000 top, the sum in valuation of all NYSE-listed companies stood at $12.9 trillion, and the valuation sum of all NASDAQ-listed companies stood at $5.4 trillion, for a total market value of $18.3 trillion. The NASDAQ subsequently lost nearly 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% to reach the October 2002 lows. The total market value of NYSE (7.2) and NASDAQ (1.8) companies at that time was only $9 trillion, for an overall market loss of $9.3 trillion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002

Seems 1987 was far worse than 1929 stock crash.

http://www.mdleasing.com/djia-losses.htm

The market lost 89% of its value following its high in 1929. I'm not sure, but I think the market fully recovered within 12 month of the 1987 crash. If you are referring to losses on the 1st day of the crashes, then you are correct.

[siamamerican]

Sonic, we actually agree on these issues more than you realize I think the only major disagreement we might have would be the scope and duration of the problem. Sensationalistic articles and bad news always sells more newspapers, or I guess as the modern world turns gets more internet subscribers. Home inventories in the U.S. actually shrank last month and while a month does not make a trend the situation is looking a little better for home sellers. You will have no problem getting me to agree that there are a few markets out there, Florida in particular that may indeed take 2-3 years to recover and while I might put a few areas of California and Phoenix AZ in that same recovery scenario (perhaps a little faster than Florida), most markets in the U.S. were much less affected and will recover much faster. Las Vegas nearly saw a doubling of real estate values from early 2004 -mid 2006 (and has backed off about 20%), but you need to realize that Las Vegas was a very undervalued market before this all occured and Las Vegas is also a very unique market for three reasons (1) Las Vegas has been the fastest growing city in the U.S. for the last 20 years (2) Las Vegas also attracts many foriegn buyers, especially since the dollar has weakened so much (3) Las Vegas has a very low unemployment rate and very good wages, and currently has an enormous ammount of commercial construction going on and more major projects planned to start later this year and next (I touched on this in one of my past posts but I cannot remember the forum). As far as the resets, they are and will continue to be a problem, but with Sec. Paulson and Rep.Barney Frank (an odd couple if I ever saw one) agreeing on ways to mitigate some of this and a Democratic congress clamoring for a major bailout for unscupulous lenders and irresponsible home buyers, I'm certain that this will all turn out much better and recover faster than the doomsday news articles make out. As far as the Euro-land situation is concerned, that was something relayed to me from a highly placed individual at Goldman Sachs who has been a friend for many years. His view seemed to be that many countries in Europe will be having a real estate crisis of their own by the end of this year or early next year, and I don't think he was refering to GB, Ireland or Spain, as those countries are already experiencing problems. I recall discussing Germany in particular with him and when I mentioned how the strong Euro-weak dollar must be killing German exports, he said that while exports to the U.S. were dropping and would likely continue to do so, that Germany has a very strong export market to Russia, but if Russian demand were to drop (I assumed that he thought it would) that unemployment in Germany could rise quite quickly and then he mentioned something about potential labor unrest (I guess unions?). Anyway, the European arena is not my forte and Germany and the rest of Europe could very well have a robust economy for years to come, I will leave it to the Europeans on this board to hash all that out as I have no dog in that fight On a side note, although lao po and I have fought back and forth on many TV forums over the past year, I am saddened to see him go through such a public breakdown as seems to be occuring currently, and I hope his situation improves very soon

Good post. I think the housing market will go down anaother 5-10%. Houses are still overpriced compared to personal income and the market usually moves back to historical norms. Please use a few paragraphs in future posts. I have a short attention span and was a little dizzy by the end.

I read some older Lao Po posts and they were considerably more sane. Probably just having a couple bad days.

Edited March 29, 2008 by siamamerican

[sonicdragon]

Nice to see some sanity returning

Just a couple of points on your post, Vic. While inventory declined last month, it is still at at almost 10 months worth of sales, at current sales levels. Until the pace of sales picks up, declining inventory won't help much, though it's a step in the right direction. Also, inventory numbers from the Census Bureau need to be considered carefully because they do *not* include changes due to cancellations (which are at record levels), nor the market for many condos (which has been an important part of new builds in the recent run up).

As for Euro-land, I'd like to see the numbers referred to by your friend regarding Germany. To my mind the German economy is in very good shape (relatively) : home prices are not stretched compared to personal incomes (and home prices have not grown at a high rate), corporate and personal debt are at relatively low levels, business confidence remains high, and exports (even to the US) remain strong. I think the point about Russia is bogus because German exports to Russia account for less than 5% of total exports - the US is Germany's biggest non-EU export partner (less than 10%). China is a much bigger export partner than Russia.

[LaoPo]

Are we done now ?

LaoPo

if that is the case i apologise. however, the signature you mentioned does not show!. i remember that during my initial set up i entered signature too (something like "per Asia ad astra", but this signature does not show either.

facit: don't blame me for the shortcomings of my browser or the TV software or whatever "signature suppressor" plays its games.

It's probably your computer set-up or TV-installments as I can read your signature which says:

"per Asia ad aspera!:~)" after this it shows 2x [ center ] [ center ]

I also noticed that you don't show when you're online; That, of course, is not my business but just to point that it could be your set-up.

PS: I can read every single signature from all members, if they have one. So, I'm not sure what cause this lack of signature(s) on your screen.

LaoPo

Edited March 29, 2008 by LaoPo

[bingobongo]

$ is in a bottoming consolidation, get ready.........

[LaoPo]

$ is in a bottoming consolidation, get ready.........

that's funny; I received the same chart and the comments with that chart said this:

"Within the next two weeks ... the U.S. Dollar will

finish bottoming out and start moving up.

This morning's update will look at two U.S. Dollar charts ... short term and long term.

The first is the weekly chart of U.S. Dollar going back to 2005. Very clearly, you can see that it has been in a down trend since 2005. Its descending channel has held steadily all the way down.

However, the Dollar fell below the channel and held support for the past four weeks. It is now in a bottoming consolidation.*See the next chart ..."

* Where did I read those words before ?

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

FWIW I'm starting to take some small exposure to USD again now. Historically, the USD tends to strengthen in recessions. That said, this time around is very different for all sorts of reasons. Anyway I still have most exposure in CNY CHF and SGD, but I'm reducing CHF and SGD as they are at or very near my medium term targets.

[Naam]

Morgan Stanley:

Why Is the EUR So Strong: A New Hypothesis

EUR/USD is grossly over-valued, according to our valuation

model and common sense. There are many reasons that have

been offered to help explain this rising trend in EUR/USD in the

past six years. But none of these factors convincingly explains

why the EUR is so over-valued, i.e., why its level is so

extraordinarily high. In this note, we propose a new

hypothesis.

In recent years, US real money investors have aggressively

diversified out of USD assets. Most of the rest of the world

have also been reducing their financial ‘home bias’ by

diversifying out of their own domestic asset markets. However,

European investment funds (IFs) have diversified more within

the Eurozone than outside the Eurozone, i.e., they diversified

out of their own countries but into other EMU member

countries, and not out of the Eurozone. The EUR, therefore,

should be strong if everyone else in the world is diversifying

while the Europeans are not.

One perverse implication is that, when the Eurozone

economies finally achieve economic convergence, the benefits

of diversifying within the zone should decline and European IFs

will need to diversify more outside the Eurozone than within the

zone. In our view, that will be one powerful structural factor

weighing on the EUR, unwinding a major distortion in the

currency markets in the next few years.

US real money investors are the biggest USD diversifiers

We have argued in the past1 that the US real money accounts

– which include mutual funds, life insurance companies and

public and private pension funds – have been the

single-biggest USD diversifiers in the world. Controlling assets

totaling some US$22.0 trillion, these real money accounts have

been aggressively diversifying out of the USD since 2003. For

US mutual funds, for example, their exposure to non-US

equities has risen from 13% then to around 23% now. With a

combined portfolio of this size, the negative impact on the USD

from this process has been quite material. Despite the media

and investor focus on currency diversification by central banks,

whose reserves total ‘only’ US$6.4 trillion – small in

comparison to the AUM of the US real money accounts, we

believe that diversification by the US private sector has been a

much more important driver for the dollar. This process, we

have argued previously, need not necessarily reflect a bearish

view on USD assets by all US real money investors. Rather, an

important part of the reason has been the desire to capture the

benefits of globalisation by reducing the financial ‘home bias’.

Similarly, we have seen the beginning of the process of a

decline in financial ‘home bias’ in Japan and other Asian

countries, as private sector capital outflows have increased to

allow private investors to build a collective financial portfolio

that has a higher exposure to foreign assets. The JPY has, as

a result, remained mostly under-valued, as have most of the

other Asian currencies.

Euroland institutional investors have not diversified!

Euroland’s financial home bias has actually increased since

the launch of the euro. While European IFs have been

diversifying out of their own countries, they have invested more

in other EMU member countries than in countries outside the

Eurozone, e.g., French investors raising their exposure to

Germany rather than non-EMU markets.

The EUR is over-valued and over-rated

Relative to most currencies outside Europe, the EUR is grossly

over-valued. The likes of GBP and SEK are also ‘guilty by

association’. The relative stability of their cross-rates with the

EUR in recent years has made them over-valued as well. The

ECB likes to point to the fact that the EUR TWI (trade-weighted

index) is not that high. But this is misleading, because a great

portion of the TWI basket includes other European currencies

that move with the EUR. Unless European companies see

other European companies as their biggest export competitors,

policymakers will need to pay more attention to the EUR/USD

and EUR/JPY cross rates.

What this hypothesis we propose in this note suggests is that,

all along, capital flows were probably the dominant force

propelling the EUR higher, out of line with the underlying real

economic fundamentals. Only seven years ago the EUR was

ridiculed by investors. Economic fundamentals don’t change

so drastically in a short seven years. European cyclical

fundamentals may be superior to those of the US, but the

EUR’s structural superiority is highly debatable. Certainly,

EUR/USD at 1.60 cannot be justified, in our view. To think that

the EUR could overtake the USD as the dominant international

reserve currency, with Europe’s dormant structural problems,

is quite disturbing to us.

Rather perversely, our hypothesis implies that when there is

greater economic convergence within Euroland, the EUR will

weaken as European IFs need to go beyond the EMU to attain

the desired level of diversification.

Bottom line

Since 1999, while virtually every country in the world has

exhibited a trend reduction in the financial ‘home bias’,

Euroland’s financial ‘home bias’ actually increased

significantly. We believe that this has been a key distortion in

the international financial markets and a main reason behind

the EUR’s over-valuation.

[LaoPo]

In the meantime:

Some in GCC ready for single currency: Reuters

By MarketWatch

Last update: 9:54 a.m. EDT April 6, 2008

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - A number of members of the Gulf Cooperation Council aim to introduce a single currency by 2010, the group's secretary-general said, according a Reuters report.

The politico-economic bloc includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The group's chief, Abdul-Rahman al-Attiyah, spoke on Sunday at a meeting of central-bank governors in Qatar's capital, Doha, the news service said. He didn't say which countries are ready to meet the group's 2010 deadline, Reuters reported.

The news service said that analysts consider such a move difficult because nations use different strategies to cope with rising inflation and the weak U.S. dollar. Oman has said it won't join the single-currency effort, Reuters reported

LaoPo