How Much Lower Can The Us Dollar Go?

[ryguy]

How much lower can the dollar go? This has for awhile been affecting many I am sure and is really starting to affect others on fixed incomes I am sure. I run an exporting company out of Chiang Mai and it is slowly but surely eating away at my profit margin the last few months as it is now continuesly dropping against the Thai Baht daily.

Can Only Raise prices so much to compete in the marketplace.

[ilyushin]

Just returned from a trip to the US. Never seen such a mess. I would say that the dollar will shed a few more to be 24-27 baht to a dollar before summer 08.

Tighten your belt and budget as it will get worse or much worse before it gets better.

This is a prediction based on my observations and some obvious indicators,

[tingtong]

"I would say that the dollar will shed a few more to be 24-27 baht to a dollar before summer 08. "

I dont think it is that bad, but certainly there is still way to go down...

as from April I will have my income in Euro, which give a bit more stability in the family budget ( at least now).

[Maigo6]

When I came to Thailand in 1990 it was 25 Baht to a Dollar, don't be surprised to see it again within 2 years.

It ain't a gloat, I'm paid in USD and am really pizzed off!

Luckily I built the house when it was still 40+ Baht to the USD, now the costs of materials has rocketed and the USD has slumped, that's life I guess.

[LoveDaBlues]

When I came to Thailand in 1990 it was 25 Baht to a Dollar, don't be surprised to see it again within 2 years.

It ain't a gloat, I'm paid in USD and am really pizzed off!

Luckily I built the house when it was still 40+ Baht to the USD, now the costs of materials has rocketed and the USD has slumped, that's life I guess.

Yes, I'm just finishing up a rebuild/addition to the in-laws place. Material prices seem to rise every 2 weeks now!

And the wifey wants our house built too; just can't win.........

Property prices up too!!!!!! ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Jingthing]

I also think the invisible hand (the market) wants it to test 25 again.

[LoveDaBlues]

I also think the invisible hand (the market) wants it to test 25 again.

Methinks the invisible hand just shoved a hot poker up me bum!

[Chloe82]

When I came to Thailand in 1990 it was 25 Baht to a Dollar, don't be surprised to see it again within 2 years.

My friend who works for Price Waterhouse Cooper in Bangkok thinks that it will hit this level pre 2009 so long as there is no military interferance within the government.

[Jingthing]

I also think the invisible hand (the market) wants it to test 25 again.

Methinks the invisible hand just shoved a hot poker up me bum!

Hmmm, he sure gets around, hope he is wearing gloves.

[PeaceBlondie]

We have been debating this since the rate went below 38:1. Some folks insist that the mandatory, artificially imposed 25:1 ratio is definitive because it was defined artificially as such for many years. I would argue that ratios above 40:1 were just as realistic as 25:1. The free market rate has never been tested below 32:1, so I think it's unfounded to predict it will return to the phony 25:1 level.

Is it not slightly absurd to bet on a currency which is not traded outside Thailand, and is the denominator of a national economy that is less than 1% of the world's GDP, against a leviathan which commands a huge share of world GDP? I will vote for a floor of 30:1 in the ratio.

[Maigo6]

We have been debating this since the rate went below 38:1. Some folks insist that the mandatory, artificially imposed 25:1 ratio is definitive because it was defined artificially as such for many years. I would argue that ratios above 40:1 were just as realistic as 25:1. The free market rate has never been tested below 32:1, so I think it's unfounded to predict it will return to the phony 25:1 level.

Is it not slightly absurd to bet on a currency which is not traded outside Thailand, and is the denominator of a national economy that is less than 1% of the world's GDP, against a leviathan which commands a huge share of world GDP? I will vote for a floor of 30:1 in the ratio.

I and many others hope you're right PB.

[stickman]

My guess would be 30 by the end of May and 28 by the end of the year...

[LinkPopularity]

well, I guess the real question is ... will the new government be able to lower the Thai Baht?

export is being hurt badly, so they should, but will they be able ?

anyway, for those being paid in USD; try to transfer it to Euro's first (use somebodies Euro account) and then change it to Thai Baht, you do get some better results that way

[tracer5050]

They are saying Gasoline will be $4.00 A gal in the US by the spring travel season, I think this make the dollar drop again fast. Maybe after the first of the year with a new president it may get better . let hope so as I get my dollars from US retirement.

[PeaceBlondie]

A friend of mine in the USA refers to the currencies of southeast Asian countries as "Mickey Mouse currencies, good for playing Monopoly." For those of us stuck here, it is a real currency.

[LaoPo]

They are saying Gasoline will be $4.00 A gal in the US by the spring travel season, I think this make the dollar drop again fast. Maybe after the first of the year with a new president it may get better . let hope so as I get my dollars from US retirement.

Lucky Americans.....

That's US $ 1.06/Liter (1 US gallon = 3.7854118 liters)

In my EU country 95 Gasoline is now €1,55 or US$ 2,30/Liter OR US$ 8,70/Gallon

I really don't understand what the heck you're talking about

You could always move to Venezuela; I heard Gas is bluddy cheap over there....like US$ 0,14/Gallon. Chavez is a real nice guy.......

LaoPo

[cclub75]

A friend of mine in the USA refers to the currencies of southeast Asian countries as "Mickey Mouse currencies, good for playing Monopoly." For those of us stuck here, it is a real currency.

SEA currencies might be "Mickey mouse currencies". Sure.

But USD is definitely a "Disneyland currency" !

Edited February 24, 2008 by cclub75

[Jingthing]

A friend of mine in the USA refers to the currencies of southeast Asian countries as "Mickey Mouse currencies, good for playing Monopoly." For those of us stuck here, it is a real currency.

SEA currencies might be "Mickey mouse currencies". Sure.

But USD is definitely a "Disneyland currency" !

Not sure about Disneyland, but in the last 8 years, the US dollar has definitely become a BUSH league currency.

[Chloe82]

They are saying Gasoline will be $4.00 A gal in the US by the spring travel season, I think this make the dollar drop again fast. Maybe after the first of the year with a new president it may get better . let hope so as I get my dollars from US retirement.

Last July the tax alone on a gallon was the equivelant to $3.41 in the UK. Don't know what it stands at right now but i'm sure the price of a gallon won't be under $8.

Edit: Hello Jingthing.

Edited February 24, 2008 by Chloe82

[wasabi]

I'm going to take the contrarian view and think it will begin to rise starting in 2009. I could see it going back to 35 but I wouldn't bet the farm on that!

[Naam]

well, I guess the real question is ... will the new government be able to lower the Thai Baht?

export is being hurt badly, so they should, but will they be able ?

anyway, for those being paid in USD; try to transfer it to Euro's first (use somebodies Euro account) and then change it to Thai Baht, you do get some better results that way

have mercy my friend! your joke nearly made me spit coffee over my keyboard

[Naam]

A friend of mine in the USA refers to the currencies of southeast Asian countries as "Mickey Mouse currencies, good for playing Monopoly." For those of us stuck here, it is a real currency.

it would have been a "real currency" for your friend if he had started converting his dollars five years into "monopoly currencies".

[mellow1]

I get paid in Dollars. We are certainly getting hurt financially by this. We will be able to get by, even should it hit 25 to 1 again. I'm not so sure about the Thai economy though. The loss of exports, and companies moving to, or giving more business to China or Vietnam, will be a hard blow to Thailand.

[TEFLMike]

They are saying Gasoline will be $4.00 A gal in the US by the spring travel season, I think this make the dollar drop again fast. Maybe after the first of the year with a new president it may get better . let hope so as I get my dollars from US retirement.

Last July the tax alone on a gallon was the equivelant to $3.41 in the UK. Don't know what it stands at right now but i'm sure the price of a gallon won't be under $8.

Edit: Hello Jingthing.

Hi,

The currenty price per Litre of Unleaded in the UK ranges from 1.05 GBP to 1.10 GBP. Diesel is even more costly .

[sayitaintso]

anyone have a link to a good free usd/thb currency chart that goes back several years minimum?

i can find all of the major pairs through other sources i already have but this pair is a minor one at best....

any help appreciated, i get paid in baht so i really want to chart this pair

[PeaceBlondie]

anyone have a link to a good free usd/thb currency chart that goes back several years minimum?

i can find all of the major pairs through other sources i already have but this pair is a minor one at best....

any help appreciated, i get paid in baht so i really want to chart this pair

Be careful not to get a source (such as Yahoo) that uses the offshore rate, which is like 30:1 right now. You only need to go back 13 years, since before that is meaningless.

[freitag1]

The Thai economy is doomed anyway. It is already expensive to manufacture products in Thailand compared to Vietnam or China and Thai factories have no real brand names that they could use to make more money with their products. A lot of factories try to create "brands" now but it is the typical half arsed approach that you can see all around Thailand to so many things.

The only business that will keep on flourishing is the horizontal business.

[sayitaintso]

anyone have a link to a good free usd/thb currency chart that goes back several years minimum?

i can find all of the major pairs through other sources i already have but this pair is a minor one at best....

any help appreciated, i get paid in baht so i really want to chart this pair

Be careful not to get a source (such as Yahoo) that uses the offshore rate, which is like 30:1 right now. You only need to go back 13 years, since before that is meaningless.

ya, i don't think anything exciting will be happening with this pair anytime soon. appears to have developed a trading range between 30 and 33.

IF i was an american expat on a fixed income i would only start sweating if the dollar goes below 31ish since that appears to be the cellar door. just using yahoo finance chart for lack of a better immediate option, the 5 yr chart shows a recent higher high and higher low so if the dollar stays above 31 and goes above 33 it looks as if it can go to 35 again without a hitch. since this is a very minor pair in the grand scheme of things, and again if i was an american expat on a fixed income, i would watch the price of gold first as gold and the euro are the anti-dollar. they will tell you where the dollar baht is going well before the guy at the western union converts your money.

[Heng]

Either way it goes, it'll be fine for those prepared for it.

[PeaceBlondie]

We American expatriates here on pensions fixed to the no-longer-almighty dollar can do nothing except curse and tighten our belts. And, hope for higher rates for our dollars. I don't know how you read Yahoo financial, but the baht has not been this strong for over ten years.