How Much Lower Can The Us Dollar Go?

[britmaveric]

Speculating like a typical forex trader...

[Spee]

And it is a documented fact that Bush has carried out a WEAK DOLLAR policy.

And .... so what?

What point are you trying to make .... that Bush should be hated because he's intentionally keeping the dollar low to screw all American expats living in LoS?

What about similar situations with the pound, the yen and to a lesser degree the Euro? Who do you want to bash there?

What about the possibility that goods and services in Thailand are simply just getting more expensive?

The dollar is different. It has been the world reserve currency. Under Bush, that is changing, and has huge global implications.

No, politically, expats mean nothing in US politics, of course. Bush used to weak dollar policy to hide his historically massive federal deficits, turning the US into a debtor nation, at the mercy of slave labor China. You could write several books on reasons to despise Bush. He should be in jail for all the damage he has done to our country.

Oh, puh----lease. This is absolute nonsense. Bush as chief executive has absolutely no authority to mandate fiscal policy, or appropriate and spend funds. It's called the system of checks and balances. Maybe you've heard of it????????????????? {And as for the busted budget, there isn't even a budget yet, because 6 months after the end of the last fiscal year the impotent Congress of Pelosi and Reid have yet to complete their single most basic function which is to create and pass a budget for the President to sign. Last time I checked, Pelosi's and Reid's approval ratings were half of Bush's.}

Now back on topic. You bash Bush as the sole cause of the weak dollar against the baht, but offer no explanation or rationale as to why the pound, yen and other currencies are also down markedly against the baht. Nor is there any opinion pro or con that goods and services in Thailand are maybe, just maybe becoming more expensive and that maybe, just maybe, that may have something to do with it. I'm no doctor, but maybe a little less koolaid and an extra dose of reality are in order.

[mellow1]

The dollar will get much stronger after the Thai government totally runs the country into the ground.

[sayitaintso]

The dollar will get much stronger after the Thai government totally runs the country into the ground.

they've been running thailand into the ground forever and it hasn't made much difference, same as italy really. completely ineffective however italy gets to mooch off of its more successful euro neighbors while the thai baht gets stronger because of the lack of stability in ANY of its neighbors. vietnam is poised to take a lot of wind out of thailands sails in the future. just having a democratically elected gov't there would probably cause a sharp drop in the baht.

thai interest rate cuts this week might cause a small blip as investors look for a higher interest rate elsewhere but the u.s. fed is set to keep cutting rates stateside for the until sometime after the election so there won't be any benefit there.

probably one of the best things that could happen for americans and their purchasing power here is the continued growth of vietnam.

[Jingthing]

Spee, not going to get into a partisan US politics pissing session with you. However, it is common knowledge that Bush had a weak dollar policy so I guess you can say he succeeded.

[Heemak]

The dollar will get much stronger after the Thai government totally runs the country into the ground.

As if the strength or weakness of the US Dollar has anything to do with the Thai Economy.

[Naam]

The dollar will get much stronger after the Thai government totally runs the country into the ground.

As if the strength or weakness of the US Dollar has anything to do with the Thai Economy.

those aliens from the delta quadrant cause the dollar's weakness!

[Heemak]

Currency speculation and exchange rates are not so much science as art. lol

[Heng]

There was plenty of time for folks earning income in US$ from 1997 to 2005 to set themselves up for life. I doubt that kind of opportunity will present itself again anytime soon.

[mellow1]

There was plenty of time for folks earning income in US$ from 1997 to 2005 to set themselves up for life. I doubt that kind of opportunity will present itself again anytime soon.

I bought and built what my family needs 5 yrs. ago. I'm sure materials and labor will not revert back to 2002 prices. Since paying somewhat attention to the Baht for the last 13 yrs, I've seen it both weak and strong. I think the Dollar will be strong again, especially against the Baht. The current "crisis" the US is facing will fade away, with no effect to the US, where life will go on as usual. I do not think it will be the same here, a country of so many poor, with so many wants and needs, and a country and economy unable and unwilling to change or provide. So at the moment its unpleasant to have lost almost 25% of our income, but our spending has also declined by that much if not more. We can easily pay for utilities, gas, food and other day to day expanses, but anything major will just be put off until another day. I wonder how many other people are being much more prudent with their spending now? After all many currencies are getting hit, not to bring up market losses.

[Maigo6]

our spending has also declined by that much if not more. We can easily pay for utilities, gas, food and other day to day expanses, but anything major will just be put off until another day. I wonder how many other people are being much more prudent with their spending now?

Yep, I'm paid in USD and have noticed the fall in the currency and have had to adjust also. I was gonna buy a Car for the missus, but she'll have to do with driving my car for now.

[mellow1]

our spending has also declined by that much if not more. We can easily pay for utilities, gas, food and other day to day expanses, but anything major will just be put off until another day. I wonder how many other people are being much more prudent with their spending now?

Yep, I'm paid in USD and have noticed the fall in the currency and have had to adjust also. I was gonna buy a Car for the missus, but she'll have to do with driving my car for now.

Same situation here.Will buy that new car when the Baht looks real good again. This one works just fine.

[astral]

A great deal will depend on who wins the Presidential election and how competent they really are.

[gunnyd]

The market forces are what dictate the value of the USD versus other foreign currencies. It wouldn't matter if Mickey Mouse was the president. The oil market, and commodities have more to do with the valuation of currency. Right now IMHO the debockle with the Sub-Prime mortgages given out by the worlds largest banks and the massive increase in foreclosures have more to do with it than politics.

The US dollar is weaker as evidenced by the value of hard assets e.g. real estate. For the first time since I bought my home here in 1997 the value of my house has gone down by more than $35000 by the county assessor's office (they give real estate value for property tax purposes). Every year until this one my home has gone up in value. The only true hedge against currency inflation/deflation is owning precious metals.

GunnyD

[apetley]

The dollar will get much stronger after the Thai government totally runs the country into the ground.

As if the strength or weakness of the US Dollar has anything to do with the Thai Economy.

those aliens from the delta quadrant cause the dollar's weakness!

At last, the truth!

[britmaveric]

Actually McCain preaches fiscal responsibility, so dare say even if repub gets in, the spending will be curtailed.

[Spee]

Right now IMHO the debockle with the Sub-Prime mortgages given out by the worlds largest banks and the massive increase in foreclosures have more to do with it than politics.

Sorry, but that "debacle" has everything to do with politics (with a high dose of corporate banking greed slapped on top). It was the politicians who wrote the legislation that required the banks to issue credit to people who are poor credit risks and under free market capitalism who never qualify for something like credit to buy a house. It was the banks' greed for high interest payback and profits that allowed it to get completely out of hand.

The smart ones who figured it out, got out early by selling off potential bad loans at a modest profit to the greedier hogs who thought they had discovered the proverbial "money tree." The big pigs were too busy burying their noses in the trough to realize that borrowers couldn't pay back as the variable interest rates started going up.

And sorry again, but in the context of the OP, the subprime mortage troubles have nothing to do with the costs of goods and services in Thailand, so they have very little to do with the current currency dip.

Edited February 26, 2008 by Spee

[Spee]

Actually McCain preaches fiscal responsibility, so dare say even if repub gets in, the spending will be curtailed.

Today, he does ... because the wind is blowing from the north. Tomorrow, when the wind is blowing from the south, he will be just another tax and spend liberal.

None of the three leading candidates are fiscal conservatives. None have any corporate or executive business experience. None have ever lead a large organization. Only one thing is certain. With a Demmy-crat controlled House and Senate, led by the two most incompetent leaders of all time (Pelosi and Reid), taxes, discretionary spending, inflation and all the other bad things that no one likes, are going on the increase.

Only God and Buddha know what impact that will have on the dollar to baht exchange rate over the next 2-4 years.

[gunnyd]

Sorry, but that "debacle" has everything to do with politics (with a high dose of corporate banking greed slapped on top). It was the politicians who wrote the legislation that required the banks to issue credit to people who are poor credit risks and under free market capitalism who never qualify for something like credit to buy a house. It was the banks' greed for high interest payback and profits that allowed it to get completely out of hand.

A primer on the Sub-Prime mortgage situation: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7073131.stm

And no the government does not force banks from buying sub-prime mortgage bonds. And on a world level the US markets effect financial markets worldwide. Not to mention that this is about the weakness of the US dollar, not the strength of the Thai Baht. Banks from Deutsche bank, United Bank of Scotland, Credit Suisse, Bank of China, and many others. Of course the Largest banks of the US have the most exposure. They gave out the mortgages in the first place.

And to blame the banks solely of greed is also flawed. In my home state Queen Creek, Arizona 60 miles outside Phoenix, had a boom in real estate speculation. Houses doubled in value in months, being artificially inflated by speculation. Now that the housing market bubble has burst over 60% of the properties are in foreclosure or have been foreclosed on. This is happening all over the US right now, especially in the Southwest.

There has been a fevered craze in the housing sector, and now the bubble has burst, just like the .com sector in the late 90s, when the same thing happened. BTW Clinton was in charge when that happened.

We all are just going to have to knuckle down and wait for the world markets to correct and the US dollar to stabilize. How long it takes will be the $64,000 question...

I am not deluded enough to actually believe that politicians have anything to do with world finance. They get their marching orders from big business. Yes they get blamed or praised according to the way the markets flow, but they have little, if nothing to do with it.

Of course this is my own personal opinion. If you want to polarize people discuss 3 things: Politics, Religion, and Sex.

Dictated but not read,

GunnyD

Edited February 26, 2008 by gunnyd

[mellow1]

I do not claim to know these many economic theories. Looking at Thailand though, a country which depends on exports, and tourism, I see it as unlikely that it will benefit in these areas with the Baht being so strong. The strength of the Baht right now is good for buying imports of needed goods. For that most people or Thai companies will have to take out loans. With exports slowing down due to the strength of the Baht( competition from China, Vietnam, etc.) it will be hard to pay these new loans off, as well as old ones, which they have trouble with already. Tourism will suffer due to the diminished return of the tourists currency(US currency not only one affected). Furthermore how many tourists will go to Pattaya to party without being able to smoke a cigarette. How many tourists does that leave who are in a frenzy to look at dilapidated temples? What will happen to the Baht then?

[Ricardo]

If you take the view that tourist-arrivals are, at best, static and then subtract the growing number of repeat-arrivals, from us expats making short-trips away, counted into every every year's arrivals-statistics, then real tourist-arrivals are already down IMHO.

[Maigo6]

Furthermore how many tourists will go to Pattaya to party without being able to smoke a cigarette.

When I first moved to Thailand the USD was at 25 Baht and I've seen the British pound at under 40 Baht. I was getting 15% interest in SCB for a fixed 90 Day account, ( Less 15% tax ).

Sure, Pattaya and it's surrounding areas were not as built up as they are now, one could actually park a car pretty much anywhere and Soi 6 only had a few Bars, times have certainly changed now.

Though Pattaya has it's problems, and it certainly does have problems, people will always go to Pattaya and unless the women start charging western style rates for their company, I can't see that changing.

I'm paid in USD and I'm really noticing the drop in value, luckily I have no big ticket purchases to deal with at the moment, not even a Sin Sot payment!

[palm]

Sorry, but that "debacle" has everything to do with politics (with a high dose of How long it takes will be the $64,000 question...

At this rate, the USA may start changing the phrase to the $30,000 question.

I'd like to hear more from the posters on ThaiVisa who said the dollar would now be near 40 or even 50 baht to the dollar.

[sayitaintso]

Sorry, but that "debacle" has everything to do with politics (with a high dose of How long it takes will be the $64,000 question...

At this rate, the USA may start changing the phrase to the $30,000 question.

I'd like to hear more from the posters on ThaiVisa who said the dollar would now be near 40 or even 50 baht to the dollar.

when i got here it was 40 or 39 so in my case it would be the 75 or even 80,000 dollar question as it takes more dollars to purchase an equivalent amount of baht.

[PeaceBlondie]

I bought my CBR150R in July 2003 for about 63,500 baht. The price has not changed more than 5%. But the dollars I exchanged to buy that bike means it now would cost 83,800 baht, about 23% more. I am not replacing it.

[ozzydom]

Not Thai related but the $US in 2001 was worth $1.93 AUD .it is now at $1.07 AUD.