People's Alliance For Democracy To Renew Movement

[younghusband]

according TOC: 25'000people now at the PAD rally.

Meanwhile PPP already launched a 2nd motion, after the first one failed date.

Younghusband, I think it's a bit naiv and short-sight to call the PAD current trouble-makers.

Why don't the people accused of fraud go the courts, and clear their names if the

are so innocent (instead of purge the courts via a second motion)?

I just wonder who are the real trouble makers here?

Hope for a peaceful PAD rally date

nice eve

I don't think it's really about the constitution for reasons given in my last post.I have nothing against PAD participants, although their leadership gives me the creeps, but they have every right to protest.Some of them definitely however fit into Lenin's definition of useful fools.Can they (the leadership) provoke a coup and destroy the Thaksin machine once and for all? I don't know.

Edited May 30, 2008 by younghusband

[Plus]

Actually many middle class Bangkokians did blame (more than that really -hated,cursed, absurdly vilified) Thaksin for his populist measures in the countryside...

When? Where?

Of course this wasn't all happening at the conscious level.

I see. It was subconscious.

You always come preloaded with "middle classes hate farmers and democracy" and "generals are evil" but short of supporting arguments. Now I know where they are - in someone else's subconsciousness.

>>>

Thaksin didn't use this rhetoric when campaigning in 2000 and 2005, btw, they got along nicely all the way until Sonthi started his anti-Thaksin's crusade. That's when suddenly the "great divide" became an issue.

[Old Man River]

According to TOC some dude from Roi Et is going to resubmit the constitution ammendment. I think he is from the Chidchobnik faction of the PPP and he is quite scathing of those who withdrew support. It looks like there are divisions in the government side that may not be easy (or should that read cheap) to iron out. This may also have an effect on whether the PAD stay or go just when it looked like they would have to go. Very unstable times.

What it is coming down to within the PPP is pro Thaksin or pro staying in this government and seeing what you can get before giving things over to the old TRT.

[Old Man River]

Samak only need to tell: for the peace in Thailand I promise no change in the constitution for 6 month. That would be a reason to go home.

That is a double edge sword. On one hand, less potential for political instability. On the other hand, based on this government's track record, more potential for economic instability. I don't know which is worse.

I don't understand the part with the "economic instability"

While this isn't a thread concerning economic issues, please see the following that discusses some of the economic issues that now faces Thailand. Note, the current government doesn't have the experience to tackle these problems and through the first 100 days hasn't even tried.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/26/bus...ss_30073907.php

[bulmercke]

TOC

Interior Minister Reveals 3rd Party to Intervene in PAD Rally

UPDATE : 30 May 2008

The interior minister warns the People's Alliance for Democracy and the rally-goers that a third party is preparing to wreak havoc in order to intervene in the ongoing PAD protest.

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung states that he has received a report on a possible attack by an ill-will group, wishing to interfere with the People's Alliance for Democracy rally and worsen the current conflict.

Chalerm says the group is the same gang responsible for the New Year's bomb attack in nine areas throughout the metropolitan, and that this time, the gang plans to imitate a violent act similat to that which occurred during the "Black May" in 1992.

Chalerm calls for the PAD to take responsibility if chaos takes place.

The interior minister also claims that the PAD rally is receiving financial support from an ally who is an illegal lottery gang and from gambling den owners. He says some political parties support the team and are joining the rally.

No comment......he seems to know that gang very well....

Obvious scare tactics - and a not so subtle attempt aimed at discouraging potential protesters from joining the rally.

From the supposed complaints received from parents about traffic congestion - to demanding that the organisers shift their speakers away from the direction of the Royal Plaza - to the totally unnecessary closing of two schools in the vicinity of the protest area - to the blocking of up-country protesters from joining last Sunday's rally - to the laissez-faire attitude of the BIB last week whilst law-abidding PAD protesters were being attacked - etc - etc -

..........it's blatantly obvious that the government is doing it's all - within it's means - to minimalise and eradicate this thorn - the PAD - from it's and it's puppet-masters - back-side!

[thaigene2]

The PAD will not stop. If it's not the Constitution it will be something else, then something else. They are purposely trying to provoke an 'incident' that (they hope) will be the excuse the establishment-friendly military is waiting for to kick out - yet again - another popularly elected government that refuses to pander to the old-family patronage system (and NO - I don't mean the 'highest esteemed family' ok?? I mean the 'cling-ons' - the Oligarchs who think Thailand is theirs and everyone else is just chatel and servants for them - while they do their dirty little guanxi deals amongst themselves to get richer and richer). These people will NEVER let anyone rain on their parade - count on it.

What saddens me most is that PAD (aside from its scum-bucket leaders) has earnest people that really believe in what they are doing. They hate Thakis, Samak and Chelerm - and who could really blame them for that? Not me..

But they don't realize that PAD and their proxies in the Democrats (oh - you know - the 'oldest' party that has done F+ck All for most Thais) are using these smart middle class people of conviction just like Thaksin used poor people to shore up his rise to power.

The scumbuckets in the country see no end to their 'rightful ownership' of thailand - sadly neither do I..this is a p+ss fight between the factions of these low-lifes. Give a glaring look at their wives and daughters with their big rings and sniffy little expresions next time you see them in Emporium or wherever - let them know that 'you know' they are scum... and that if you ever have your way - their days will be numbered. A bit like that guy did to Thaksin when he said "Mai mi nah!" (you have no face)

Then things 'may' - only 'may' start to change..Reconciliation is needed here badly (instead of trying to pretend this is TRT v Democrats) - but rich minority groups unfairly in power rarely see a need to give any leeway - until it's too late. Look at Zimbabwe, Kenya, Nepal (as in Indians vs indigenous), South Africa, etc..

Edited May 30, 2008 by thaigene2

[bulmercke]

About 8,000 people join PAD rally Friday evening

The number of demonstrators at the Makkhawan Bridge grew to about 8,000 at 6:50 pm Friday.

The demonstrators came out to join the rally after the five leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy announced that the Friday would be a major one and the PAD leaders would sound out the demonstrators' opinion on Friday whether the PAD should continue its rallies.

The Nation - 19.27

[bulmercke]

The PAD will not stop. If it's not the Constitution it will be something else, then something else. They are purposely trying to provoke an 'incident' that (they hope) will be the excuse the establishment-friendly military is waiting for to kick out - yet again - another popularly elected government that refuses to pander to the old-family patronage system (and NO - I don't mean the 'highest esteemed family' ok?? I mean the 'cling-ons' - the Oligarchs who think Thailand is theirs and everyone else is just chatel and servants for them - while they do their dirty little guanxi deals amongst themselves to get richer and richer). These people will NEVER let anyone rain on their parade - count on it.

What saddens me most is that PAD (aside from its scum-bucket leaders) has earnest people that really believe in what they are doing. They hate Thakis, Samak and Chelerm - and who could really blame them for that? Not me..

But they don't realize that PAD and their proxies in the Democrats (oh - you know - the 'oldest' party that has done F+ck All for most Thais) are using these smart middle class people of conviction just like Thaksin used poor people to shore up his rise to power.

The scumbuckets in the country see no end to their 'rightful ownership' of thailand - sadly neither do I..this is a p+ss fight between the factions of these low-lifes. Give a glaring look at their wives and daughters with their big rings and sniffy little expresions next time you see them in Emporium or wherever - let them know that 'you know' they are scum... and that if you ever have your way - their days will be numbered. A bit like that guy did to Thaksin when he said "Mai mi nah!" (you have no face)

Then things 'may' - only 'may' start to change..Reconciliation is needed here badly (instead of trying to pretend this is TRT v Democrats) - but rich minority groups unfairly in power rarely see a need to give any leeway - until it's too late. Look at Zimbabwe, Kenya, Nepal (as in Indians vs indigenous), South Africa, etc..

Yes - the PAD ain't goin' to stop anytime soon. But one thing that has to be remembered is that this is a very personal issue.

Last time around the PAD wanted Thaksin to face legal charges for his alleged abuses of power and corruption. And his removal as prime minister. It was really very simple.

This time - it's not that different. His party TRT is still in power - in all but name - and he appears to be very much still in power - albeit from a back-seat position - pulling the levers of power in this country and influencing events.

PPP's decision to ammend the constitution was a blatant and unashamed attempt to ammend the constitution in favour of Thaksin i.e. to allow him to go scot-free from the outstanding legal charges he was facing.

Basically - as far as the PAD are concerned - nothing much has really changed in the last two years.

Thaksin is still around. He's that big, rapacious snake still lurking under the PAD's and everyone else's house!

The PAD will protest as long as Thaksin still poses a threat to the monarchy and the ruling establishment. Because they know ultimately - the military is on their side.

[h90]

PAD vow to continue rally

The People's Alliance for Democracy Friday vowed to continue their rally to ultimately oust the government, after redefning its role to further its protest.

After annoucing the change in the PAD's stance, PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkul asked for an approval from the PAD supporters for the continuing rally. The crowd roared in support and approval for their extended fight. In his speech defining the change, Sonthi read out what he said were 12 points the country still had to face as a result of the government's acts.

"The country's problems still persist, with Thaksin and his cronies being behind everything. So our tasks are not yet complete.

"Hereby I ask for your approval to heighten our efforts with a goal to finally oust the government," he said.

The Nation

[sriracha john]

THAKSIN WHISPERED APOLOGY TO PREM

No implications now; analysts debate meaning of Thaksin's gesture

Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra offered an apology to Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda during their brief meeting on Thursday evening at Wat Sommanat.

"I am sorry for all that has happened," Thaksin was quoted by a military source as telling Prem.

Thaksin made a sudden appearance at Wat Sommanat, where a funeral ceremony was being held for the mother of Army commander-in-chief General Anupong Paochinda. He greeted Prem with a wai. Prem simply stood still with his face grim and listened to Thaksin. The only words that Prem said to Thaksin were: "Maybe later."

The meeting between Prem and Thaksin, with the Army chief acting as a moderator, signalled the hovering political tension might be easing somewhat, but Thaksin is still facing a big threat from the possible dissolution of the People Power Party (PPP) over alleged election frauds and from the seizure of Bt76 billion worth of his assets, not to mention additional corruption charges against him.

Thaksin's supporters have been attacking Prem for two years, accusing the statesman of masterminding the September 2006 military coup. However, Thaksin's meeting with Prem represents the latest twist in the political developments that most people earlier feared might take a turn for the worse.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has been rallying for the uprooting of the Thaksin regime, using the government's attempt to rewrite the Constitution, and now its failure to tackle the troubled economy, as a pretext. The PAD said the charter amendments were aimed at nullifying the agencies that were now working on the corruption cases against Thaksin.

Yesterday, eight members of Parliament withdrew their signatures on a motion filed to amend the Constitution, but a PPP meeting insisted it had decided to keep the option of amending the Constitution open, although it might have to wait for the results of a referendum first.

PM' Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair yesterday resigned from his office under pressure from the government and his party. The police will pursue lese-majeste charges against him.

Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat said the meeting between Thaksin and Prem carried no political ramifications, because Thaksin had announced he would not return to politics, while Prem himself was not involved in politics.

"So the meeting does not have any implications," he said.

At first, Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama declined to comment on Thaksin's paying respect to Prem, saying he was still serving as Thaksin's personal lawyer. But when he was asked further whether Thaksin's wai had any political implications, Noppadon said: "No, there were no political implications, only cultural and religious ones."

- The Nation

===========================================================

re: his apology and later the brother-in-law's comments about Thaksin continued pledge to remain out of politics...

It's a good thing that Thaksin's sincerity and honesty have never been in question.

[sriracha john]

As the PPP is not stopping their efforts, I don't see the PAD ending theirs...

PPP plans second bid to change charter

The People Power Party (PPP) yesterday decided to submit a fresh motion to amend the Constitution after its first attempt failed yesterday due to insufficient support.

"The PPP plans a motion on charter amendments to be submitted before the convening of the extraordinary House session on June 9," MP Supachai Phosu said.

A 12-member panel will be in charge of drafting the motion and solicit endorsement from legislators starting Monday, Supachai said.

He said the refiling of the motion was not meant as a challenge to the street protests by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), but to fulfil an election pledge to amend the charter.

Supachai said debate on the motion would not be held until the result of the planned referendum on the charter rewrite is known.

The first motion to amend the charter rewrite failed after a group of seven senators led by Suphan Buri Senator Prasit Potasuthon withdrew their support yesterday saying their decision was prompted news reports that the PAD had agreed to end its protest if the motion was dropped.

Prasit said the group had been unable to contact Buri Ram Senator Taweesak Kidbanjong and Phetchabun Senator Somporn Juman, but they might withdraw their names as well.

The withdrawal of support by the seven senators reduced number of MPs and senators supporting the motion from 131 to 124 - two less than the minimum required.

PPP MP Nisit Sinthuprai from Roi Et said his group would gather signatures to launch the motion again as they wanted the Constitution to be more democratic.

The motion needs at least 96 MPs to support it and the group is confident of reaching that number, Nisit said. However, they would drop the move if the charter rewrite was rejected in the referendum, he said.

Senator Prasit said his group would not support a fresh motion for charter amendment in the near future and would wait for the result of the national referendum on the issue.

The group earlier in the day approached PAD leaders at Parliament House to ask them to stop their protest in exchange for withdrawing support for the charter amendment.

However, the PAD leaders declined to discuss this with the senators, saying they had come to submit a petition to impeach those who supported the motion.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission (EC) has finished drafting the national referendum bill and will submit it to the Parliament president next week.

EC commissioner Praphan Naikowit said the EC had endorsed the 42-article bill. Praphan said the EC chairman would sign his name to propose the bill to Parliament. He said Thai expats would also be allowed to vote in the referendum.

- The Nation

[h90]

It's a good thing that Thaksin's sincerity and honesty have never been in question.

:D thats the comment of the day :D

[Plus]

So little Judas is sorry now.

But then again, Peter wasn't too faithful either.

I guess we are approaching the final scene, after that we'll be left striving for the second coming.

[nomoretalksin]

I don't see any coup coming until it's 100% clear that Thaksin will not have to go the courts (that would be the trigger I guess) and he would despite promising to do so, not go; and/or there would not big violence/casualties on the ground (which there will be not if Pro-Thaksin hooligians and the police/military play by democratical rules).

So as long the new 2nd (MP Roi Et) motion is not approved successfull yet (need how many MP's to approve it? 123?), I think the PAD should step back now and today, enjoy their little (righteous) victory, and let the Thaksin-proxy goverment step into to the next faux-pas. If they remain there now, the participants, will get smaller and smaller, and they might loose their face. Why continue now? Enjoy the resignation of Soap opera hero & media manipulator Jakrapop, and their achieved goal of the withdrawel of the 1st constit. amendment motion.

What you guys think? Make sense?

By the way how many people really were there yesterday?

- Nation says 8'000, TOC reporter (on site) said 25'000

Any other figs found? This are important indicators for the PAD Leaders, and they should include those trends, in their plannings

(also read the polls etc.).

---------

Quote

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30074454

PAD vow to continue rally

The People's Alliance for Democracy Friday vowed to continue their rally to ultimately oust the government, after redefning its role to further its protest.

After annoucing the change in the PAD's stance, PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkul asked for an approval from the PAD supporters for the continuing rally. The crowd roared in support and approval for their extended fight. In his speech defining the change, Sonthi read out what he said were 12 points the country still had to face as a result of the government's acts.

"The country's problems still persist, with Thaksin and his cronies being behind everything. So our tasks are not yet complete.

"Hereby I ask for your approval to heighten our efforts with a goal to finally oust the government," he said.

The Nation

Unquote

Edited May 31, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[marshbags]

according TOC: 25'000people now at the PAD rally.

Meanwhile PPP already launched a 2nd motion, after the first one failed date.

Younghusband, I think it's a bit naiv and short-sight to call the PAD current trouble-makers.

Why don't the people accused of fraud go the courts, and clear their names if the

are so innocent (instead of purge the courts via a second motion)?

I just wonder who are the real trouble makers here?

Hope for a peaceful PAD rally date

nice eve

Let us look at the two sides in relation to the PPP and the PAD.

The PAD are voicing their democratic rights to protest peacefully on issues that are a concern to Thailand and it,s majority of citizens with a hope of benefiting all of them.

They represent concerns of between 63 - 65 million citizens who will loose big time should they allow the PPP to force their self motivated interests upon them all.

The PPP are trying to enforce undemocratic changes as the present constitution, in particular the sections that will allow them to keep in power, allow their sponsor / sponsors regain their status as the TRT party, and their surrogate leader to get his frozen assets back that were gained corruptly during his years as their CEO.

They are only concerned with the 500 or so ( estimated ) unprincipled individuals and what their unlawful actions of the last 5 years could / should get them.

The PPP are ignoring what they were elected for and that is basically to look after the welfare of the electorate and their families.

The economic situation is a priority and needs addressing big time or the country is in dire straights.

Many of it,s citizens are now living on a pittance and cannot even afford the basic food their families need to survive on.

The situation is spiralling out of control and all they care about is saving their own scrawny necks and undeserving status as political PUYAI and their unlawfully gained wealth.

Had they obeyed the present constitution, and not manipulated the last one for self interest, they would not be in the position they are trying to cheat their way out of now.

Worst of all they are engaging in bullying tactics, paying thugs to intimidate the peaceful right to demonstrate and turn it all into a potential blood bath with what will be dire consequences for the innocents and Thailands future.

Look at post 24 for an example of their actions, with photographs to boot for the doubters who think the newpapers are minipulating the truth ?????

How sad the way the present scenario looks to be heading, along with history repeating itself again, and again, and again ect. ect. ect.

The fact that they are obviously worried about the rule of law being applied in relation to their " alledged " offences and letting it prove their so called innocence speaks volumes for the 500 or that are responsible for the stand off, not those peacefully exercising their rights to get accountability.

marshbags very and very concerned.

Edited May 31, 2008 by marshbags

[thaigene2]

Yes - the PAD ain't goin' to stop anytime soon.

...

The PAD will protest as long as Thaksin still poses a threat to the monarchy and the ruling establishment. Because they know ultimately - the military is on their side.

BANGKOK POST HEADLINE - Next Morning, Saturday, May 31st 2008

PAD vows to continue protest

But focus now shifts to ousting the Samak Govt

That's why I said it will never end - there will be something else and then something else until a wealthy-establishment-friendly government is back in power - via election or force of arms - I suspect the establishment would prefer the latter actually.

Regarding you comments - Not sure how Thaksin - or anyone - could pose a threat to the monarchy in a country like Thailand, but he certainly does pose a threat to the establishment by trying to invade their closed camp of inter-family guanxi business deals. Ironic, as he's also Chinese, no? And so were most of his Cabinet under TRT.

But it was telling how the old families fear international business styles like Thaksin - thus the hysteria and rabid reaction when they had the opportunity to try to foce through the Foreign Business Act on behalf of the Establishment families and their military appointed Government. I keep saying this, but Thakisn's 'corruption' is what these people are using to fire up the middle classes tot take to the streets.., but it's a red herring. It's the frankenstein of a populist movement and an opening up of Thailand to foreign investment (Thaksin style) they fear the most - because they stand to lose a lot by these other competing interests. PAD's Sondhi and General what's-his-name (what is his name anyway?) are the proxies for tthe Establishment in this fight to the finish...

It's TRT and what it stood for at grassroots-level (not opportunists like Thaksin) that worries them - that's the hidden agenda.

And thanks for reinforcing my main point - yes the establishment know the military are on their side. Remains to be seen whether the police are though.

Edited May 31, 2008 by thaigene2

[younghusband]

Actually many middle class Bangkokians did blame (more than that really -hated,cursed, absurdly vilified) Thaksin for his populist measures in the countryside...

When? Where?

Of course this wasn't all happening at the conscious level.

I see. It was subconscious.

You always come preloaded with "middle classes hate farmers and democracy" and "generals are evil" but short of supporting arguments. Now I know where they are - in someone else's subconsciousness.

>>>

Thaksin didn't use this rhetoric when campaigning in 2000 and 2005, btw, they got along nicely all the way until Sonthi started his anti-Thaksin's crusade. That's when suddenly the "great divide" became an issue.

I had assumed you understood shade and nuance.If it's just a student debating contest where the intention is to score cheap points so be it.By motivation at the subconscious level I simply meant that not every PAD footsoldier (same would apply to Thaksin loyalists) has the strategy clearly mapped out in the front of their brain.Not a very difficult point to grasp.

You accuse me of the very thing I fear you are guilty of yourself, glib generalisations.It was I that pointed out that the Bangkok middle class is much less block like in their views than the received wisdom.This you seem to find disturbing.What do you want me to provide - a list of names? All I can say Is that I am constantly coming across educated professionals who, to some extent anyway, admire Thaksin, though it is true few are supporters of the current government.

[Plus]

If the momentum keeps going, Sondhi will be forced to pack it up. At the moment there's no sense of victory yet.

>>>>

Thaksin is not an international businessman, where did you get that idea?

Under his government foreign telcos and banks were forced to leave the country, for example.

He and his backers were the first in line to benefit from "closed camp of inter-family guanxi business deals", so no difference there either. The idea of a fair market competition has never ever entered his head and it won't be allowed under his watch.

That's why he looks so alone now - his anti-establishemt crusade doesn't have any support, just like Jakrapob was forced to eat his words and swear allegiance to the patronage system on national TV.

They are like teenagers with a pocket allowance challenging their dad how to run family finances.

[h90]

It seems Swines-face is telling something on TV. Something from he'll use police, but don't understand him.

Anyone know?

Michael

[Plus]

YH, you said, numerous times, that PAD and middle classes are opposing farmers progress or their desire for a better life.

I asked you to show some examples as I haven't seen any signs of it. You replied it's in their subconsciousness.

It's a pretty flimsy ground for an argument that has been central to nearly all your posts.

As I said, you come here preloaded with these two points - junta were evil and middle classes hate farmers. At least one of them doesn't have any factual basis even in your own head - were you brainwashed or something?

[younghusband]

YH, you said, numerous times, that PAD and middle classes are opposing farmers progress or their desire for a better life.

I asked you to show some examples as I haven't seen any signs of it. You replied it's in their subconsciousness.

It's a pretty flimsy ground for an argument that has been central to nearly all your posts.

As I said, you come here preloaded with these two points - junta were evil and middle classes hate farmers. At least one of them doesn't have any factual basis even in your own head - were you brainwashed or something?

I don't believe the middle class hates farmers.Individual members of the Bangkok middle class are of course decent people with human sympathies.Naturally they would mostly like to see the poor advance and have a better life.However if this meant a consequent shift of national resources away from the city dwellers, possibly higher taxes and a new brand of political leadership that genuinely had the majority's interest at heart, I am afraid there would be considerable resistance.

I thought I had answered the subconsciousness point.Let it go.

"Evil" is a strong word but yes I think the junta was despicable,dishonest, self serving and incompetent.I do believe the ringleaders should be behind bars.

[h90]

YH, you said, numerous times, that PAD and middle classes are opposing farmers progress or their desire for a better life.

I asked you to show some examples as I haven't seen any signs of it. You replied it's in their subconsciousness.

It's a pretty flimsy ground for an argument that has been central to nearly all your posts.

As I said, you come here preloaded with these two points - junta were evil and middle classes hate farmers. At least one of them doesn't have any factual basis even in your own head - were you brainwashed or something?

I don't believe the middle class hates farmers.Individual members of the Bangkok middle class are of course decent people with human sympathies.Naturally they would mostly like to see the poor advance and have a better life.However if this meant a consequent shift of national resources away from the city dwellers, possibly higher taxes and a new brand of political leadership that genuinely had the majority's interest at heart, I am afraid there would be considerable resistance.

I thought I had answered the subconsciousness point.Let it go.

"Evil" is a strong word but yes I think the junta was despicable,dishonest, self serving and incompetent.I do believe the ringleaders should be behind bars.

Well but Thaksin did nothing to help the poor, he shifted the money from the middle class and the poor to the super rich and mostly himself. Just the poor didn't see that.

That the junta was incompetent: I agree.

But I can't see where it was self serving or dishonest or despicable. Actually they didn't do much at all.

[hammered]

According to TOC some dude from Roi Et is going to resubmit the constitution ammendment. I think he is from the Chidchobnik faction of the PPP and he is quite scathing of those who withdrew support. It looks like there are divisions in the government side that may not be easy (or should that read cheap) to iron out. This may also have an effect on whether the PAD stay or go just when it looked like they would have to go. Very unstable times.

What it is coming down to within the PPP is pro Thaksin or pro staying in this government and seeing what you can get before giving things over to the old TRT.

There certainly are divisions in the PPP and it is hard to know if this a good or bad thing or how far they will actually go. There are also splits within the PAD if you listen to differnt leaders speaking and they certainly lack a lot of those who supported them over Thaksin this time who are staying in the background. There are also splits within the military, and barring someone making last minute changes the fatctional balance here will almost certainly change in September to the advantage of the Thaksin wing who are still probably the biggest within the PPP right now. In the longer term things look better and better for the Thaksinistas unless and it is a big unless the courts decide decisively against them, which obviously they are trying to deal with by legislating cases away. However, if the cases havent come to at least close to conclusion by September or there hasnt been a coup or government collapse, I would think things will be so to the advantage of the Thaksinistas that they could just push their constitutional ammendment through whatever it says.

It seems to me that right now nobody trusts anyone and nobody is sure if they have enough support to "win", which is a very unstable position for the next few months, and even if ordinary people are not talking of the September reshuffle and what it may mean, those in power and those opposing them will certainly be keeping this timeframe in mind.

[hammered]

YH, you said, numerous times, that PAD and middle classes are opposing farmers progress or their desire for a better life.

I asked you to show some examples as I haven't seen any signs of it. You replied it's in their subconsciousness.

It's a pretty flimsy ground for an argument that has been central to nearly all your posts.

As I said, you come here preloaded with these two points - junta were evil and middle classes hate farmers. At least one of them doesn't have any factual basis even in your own head - were you brainwashed or something?

I don't believe the middle class hates farmers.Individual members of the Bangkok middle class are of course decent people with human sympathies.Naturally they would mostly like to see the poor advance and have a better life.However if this meant a consequent shift of national resources away from the city dwellers, possibly higher taxes and a new brand of political leadership that genuinely had the majority's interest at heart, I am afraid there would be considerable resistance.

I thought I had answered the subconsciousness point.Let it go.

"Evil" is a strong word but yes I think the junta was despicable,dishonest, self serving and incompetent.I do believe the ringleaders should be behind bars.

One thing I think that needs pointing out when talking about the middle classes opposing the shifting of tax revenue to up country is that the middle classes didnt really come out in any great numbers to support Sondhi until after the tax free sale by Mr. Thaksin. It could be seen that it is not actually using tax to improve the lot of the rural poor that angered them but that those richer than they who were implementing the policies and gaining the kudos for doing so were seemingly not willing to see their tax go to these schemes. In fact they were doing all they could to avoid paying tax whether by legal or illegal means who knows but ethically it didnt look good at all.

In some ways the analysis of middle class and farmers is very flawed too. I think it was Chang Noi who examined the polarised voting pattern at the last election and found that it was more regional than anything with the South, Bangkok and the central provinces just to its south flanked by a thin line up through the west up to and including Mae Hong Song and another flank through the East and attaching to bits of Amart and Ubon being the line of opposition support. Anything North of this was generally government supporting. While the divide is between the wealthier and less wealthy parts of the country there are very poor fishermen and farmers plus many non-tax payers in the opposition territory and voting blocks and there are middle classes in the government territory and voting block. That the divide seems more regional than class based makes it in many ways harder to analyse and certainly harder to resolve as regional hatreds spring to the surface, and there have always been regional rivalries that are now even more cemeted in psyche. A dangerous situation.

[Plus]

shift of national resources away from the city dwellers, possibly higher taxes and a new brand of political leadership... there would be considerable resistance

I seriously doubt it.

Income taxes contribute too little to make any effect, business taxes can't be raised, too. Inheritance or land holding taxes are not going to be introduced anytime soon because of the lack of political leadership to undertake any meaingful reform.

Farmers, the majority, do not have any representation in Thai politics, it's always someone from the top talking on their behalf when it suits their own agenda.

Shift of national resources to countryside is nothing new, no one has ever opposed it - look at Eastern Seaboard, for example.

Middle classes won't instigate conflict along rural-urban divide lines, and I don't see pitchfork mobs coming to Bangkok to fight for their fair share either.

TRT used this idea to create a common enemy and enlist farmers in their won fight, and marxists like this idea because without any evidence of class struggle they have nothing else to talk about.

It's a storm in a teacup.

[h90]

(BangkokPost.com) - Supporters of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) must move out of Makawan Rangsit bridge Saturday or else police and soldiers will have to take action against them, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej Saturday morning.

The one-hour speech by Mr Samak was broadcasted in state television NBT.

"I'm here to say that I will take legal action against them because they have no right to be there. I won't let you, nor will police and soldiers," he said.

"The country needs peace. The rally has caused damages to investment," he added. "I need to take away this scar. You have the right (to protest), but you have to do it somewhere else."

His statement came after PAD announced it would continue its rally and focus on toppling Mr Samak's administration, which it called a puppet government, from office.

He also said that five PAD core leaders will face defamation charges, adding that they violate the law by taking hold of Ratchadamnoen Avenue.

He reiterated that the government and the army understand the situation well, so a coup would not be staged.

[nomoretalksin]

Quote

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/31...cs_30074456.php

BEING UPDATED

Samak vows to use force to end rally

By The Nation

Tension heightened at the rally ground of the People's Alliance for Democracy at the Makkhawan Bridge after Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej announced on TV Saturday that the government may use force to end the demonstration.

Samak made the announcement on NBT Channel in a special live broadcast at 9 am.

Police apparently briefed up its forces at the bridge while the PAD leaders announced to the demonstrators to get prepared for being crackdoned.

Samak said the demonstrations at bridge had caused severe damages to the country.

He blamed the PAD for trying to undermine the attempts of his elected government to solve the country's problems.

He said his elected government came to office by contesting the election under the democratic rules and it assumed the office during the time of the economic crisis.

He said he had done a lot as the prime minister and visited several countries but the government critics still accused his government of not doing anything.

Samak said the measures to solve the country's problems were going well until the PAD came out to protest against the plan to amend the Constitution.

"But where were these people when the constitution was abolished?" Samak asked emotionally.

"Now, they seized roads and marched to surround Government House and embarrassed the country in the eyes of the International Community. They play it hard and try to find fault with me to pressure me to leave office. When they could not find issues to attack me, they cited the old issues during the time of the Thaksin government."

He said the protesters were illegally blocking the roads and he thought the protesters were trying to incite the military to stage another coup.

"But the prime minister who is called Samak is also the defence minister. I work with the military commanders and I have good understanding with them," Samak said.

Unquote

I just hope The Nation has got it wrong with "force" as the Bangkok Post writes "legal action" (the nation should watch out what they right)

Any other translations on his weekly cooking (sorry) political show??

Edited May 31, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[h90]

Quote

BEING UPDATED

Samak vows to use force to end rally

By The Nation

Tension heightened at the rally ground of the People's Alliance for Democracy at the Makkhawan Bridge after Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej announced on TV Saturday that the government may use force to end the demonstration.

Samak made the announcement on NBT Channel in a special live broadcast at 9 am.

Police apparently briefed up its forces at the bridge while the PAD leaders announced to the demonstrators to get prepared for being crackdoned.

Samak said the demonstrations at bridge had caused severe damages to the country.

unquote

Now it's getting very dangereous. The prime minister want's peace and I just have the 1972 pics coming up again, as Samak was in the order ranks as well during those very deadly protests.

Please make some sense PM!

(I just hope The Nation has got it wrong with "force" as the Bangkok Post says something else)

Don't expect any sense from Samak. Look at his performance and speeches so far.....he is really not the smartest.....

[nomoretalksin]

Read full text in post 878, just updated, after your comment (H90)

Not clear if 'legal actions' and/or 'force' is meant.

[cmsally]

Translated, this probably means some conciliatory deals have been made by the govt. behind the scenes. Therefore the govt now has a wider mandate for crackdown on the PAD. Presumably the PAD have to a certain extent had the "carpet swept out from under their feet".