So What Will Happen If The Baht Crashes?

[dclaryjr]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

I just read an article today predicting that it would top out at $4.15 this summer. Meanwhile Ford F-150 trucks are sitting on lots unsold.

[dclaryjr]

The bht is bound to crash in the next week or so as I have just transferred a huge amount from the UK to finish my house here.

Apetley, yep, that's exactly what I did.  May 1996, transferred in a big batch of baht and bought the house out here at Klong 10.  Of course, it needed modification and additions, so August 1996 transferred in a 2nd BBB, all complete by December 1996.

Mac

I got (through my brother-in-law) a ten year note to build a house in 2002 when the exchange rate was still in the 40s. So I predict it won't go back into the 40s until 2012!

[cclub75]

It seems like predicting future exchange rates are quite difficult.

Looking at Thailand's foreign reserve it is more than 110 billion US $ at the moment. That's a huge number, and it is one of the largest reserves in the world. Putting it into context, it means that Thailand can keep up its imports for almost a year without having to export anything.

That is quite a large stock of ammunition to protect your currency. It's surely enough to protect Thailand from IMF imposed policies the next time there is a crisis.

Yes. Rank 14.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...change_reserves

However, the net oil bill (imports-exports) is (at current prices) 27 billions USD.

We saw the first effects with the widening of the trade deficit and current account too. Those are first alarm bells.

Furthermore, regarding the management of those reserves (to use them as munitions)... let's not forget that we have a very special political situation in the country... And the politicians control the BOT, whatever Miss Tarisa can say ("i'm independant"). My point : their actions -if any- could only be ... wrong.

They aren't talented.

There is another liability I think... USD itself.

Foreign exchange reserves in thailand are said to be at 60 % in USD.

Right now people are super excited, because Bernanke spoke about fighting inflation and supporting the USD, so they say "a new cycle has begun" (great the USDindex rebounded... at 73, impressive...)

What if.... not ? What if FED do not increase its rate (because of a recession in the US) ?

My point : 100 billions USD, that looks a lot. Sure.

But relatively.

Edited June 12, 2008 by cclub75

[ray23]

I know yuo guys like to pick on Vic but he is right, as long as the dollar stays low seculators will go into commodities IE oil one of the biggest sources of inflation. When they can make more money elsewhere they will pull out adn the price of oil will come down and infaltion will ease. Sorry folks that is not going to happen until the dollar strengthens.

Yes the baht will lose a bit in the process and maybe when this over we actually be on a more playing field. As I said in another post not wise to completly dismiss any huge economic source in todays world.

the last thing I want to see is another 97 crash a graudual adjustment woudl be a good thing for everyone I believe.

But I'm no expert by anymeans just sharing feelings. These days seems like that is what economist are really doing anyway.

[akatrain]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

Its really amazing the nonsense that gets posted on some of these forums. Gas just hit an all time high in the U.S. a couple of days ago and I paid the most I ever paid for a gallon ($3.35) here in Arizona, some other areas of the U.S. are paying slightly higher prices due to excessive state taxes but the most I have heard gas selling for was $3.71/gallon somewhere in California I think. The dollar has begun a strengthening cycle and that alone will bring down the price of oil (and thereby gas) and as oil falls much of the speculation (about 25% of the price of a barrel of oil is due to pure speculation) in the pits in Chicago and New York will abate and oil will fall to a natural supply and demand level around $70-$80/bbl later this year. Gas prices could indeed spike 20 or 30 cents short term in the U.S. this summer driving season as it usually does, but as we move into the fall I would imagine that gas will drop below $3/gallon and quite likely back to around the mid $2 range. Methinks your good old Dad might have recently invested in Exxon Mobil and is having a pipe dream about $7/gallon gas, even the prepetual doomsters that get interviewed occasionally on CNBC realize that if gas ever approached $5/gallon in the U.S. that consumption would decrease substantially. As far as the Thai baht is concerned, I can see no reason why it would be poised for a crash. The baht has indeed appreciated more than other currencies in the region, but not so much as to think that a crash would be coming, as the dollar continues to strengthen this year and next the baht -dollar will gradually gravitate back to the 41-42 level that it seems to have regularly done post 97. The coming downturn and economic hiccups in china and india could have an adverse effect on the Thai economy for a while, but I doubt it would cause a crash in the baht.

Gas is $4.15 a gallon here in Alaska and we have lots of oil and some our own refinerys. It will definitely be at $5.00 a gallon by the end of summer. Its insane!!

[LaoPo]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

I just read an article today predicting that it would top out at $4.15 this summer. Meanwhile Ford F-150 trucks are sitting on lots unsold.

Don't tell me you believe everything what's printed, do you ?

Anyone who can predict oil prices is NOT writing articles in papers or magazines about what a gallon of gas is going to be this summer; he's sipping a margarita on his Mega-yacht, surrounded by beautiful girls and not sure whether to take the chopper or the Riva for lunch on the beach...

LaoPo

Edited June 12, 2008 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

Its really amazing the nonsense that gets posted on some of these forums. Gas just hit an all time high in the U.S. a couple of days ago and I paid the most I ever paid for a gallon ($3.35) here in Arizona, some other areas of the U.S. are paying slightly higher prices due to excessive state taxes but the most I have heard gas selling for was $3.71/gallon somewhere in California I think. The dollar has begun a strengthening cycle and that alone will bring down the price of oil (and thereby gas) and as oil falls much of the speculation (about 25% of the price of a barrel of oil is due to pure speculation) in the pits in Chicago and New York will abate and oil will fall to a natural supply and demand level around $70-$80/bbl later this year. Gas prices could indeed spike 20 or 30 cents short term in the U.S. this summer driving season as it usually does, but as we move into the fall I would imagine that gas will drop below $3/gallon and quite likely back to around the mid $2 range. Methinks your good old Dad might have recently invested in Exxon Mobil and is having a pipe dream about $7/gallon gas, even the prepetual doomsters that get interviewed occasionally on CNBC realize that if gas ever approached $5/gallon in the U.S. that consumption would decrease substantially. As far as the Thai baht is concerned, I can see no reason why it would be poised for a crash. The baht has indeed appreciated more than other currencies in the region, but not so much as to think that a crash would be coming, as the dollar continues to strengthen this year and next the baht -dollar will gradually gravitate back to the 41-42 level that it seems to have regularly done post 97. The coming downturn and economic hiccups in china and india could have an adverse effect on the Thai economy for a while, but I doubt it would cause a crash in the baht.

Gas is $4.15 a gallon here in Alaska and we have lots of oil and some our own refinerys. It will definitely be at $5.00 a gallon by the end of summer. Its insane!!

You Americans have to learn to stop complaining. You're living in a paradise with such low gas prices.

You pay (converted) Euro 0,66/liter

We pay Euro 1,66 per liter.

Yes, Sir, that's € 1,66 per liter OR € 6,28/GALLON which is equivalent to today's US $ 9,68/GALLON

So: stop complaining and get rid of your gas-swallowing cars

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

In the yanks defense - they drive a whole lot further than most europeans to/from work. Unless you are in a major city - public transport system is quite dire.

[LaoPo]

In the yanks defense - they drive a whole lot further than most europeans to/from work. Unless you are in a major city - public transport system is quite dire.

That doesn't explain the enormous price difference in gas per liter or gallon between the US and Europe.

Also, one doesn't necessarily need giant cars and pickup trucks consuming....spilling is a better word....gas for transport to/from work.

But time will tell and the large cars will fade away. Good !

The absolute nonsense cars like the Hummer serve no purpose other than spilling money and valuable gas.

The problem is that US car manufacturers didn't see the problems coming; the Japanese and European car manufacturers did....that's why they sold so many cars to the US and not the other way.

LaoPo

[Naam]

But time will tell and the large cars will fade away. Good !

Yanks are not the only gaz guzzlers LaoPo. when i look at what german car manufacturers produce nowadays i can only shake my head. also i can't understand why the wife of one of my best friends needs 500 horse powers (Porsche Cayenne) to buy fresh bread rolls and croissants every morning from a bakery which is located about 1.5 km from their home

[LaoPo]

But time will tell and the large cars will fade away. Good !

Yanks are not the only gaz guzzlers LaoPo. when i look at what german car manufacturers produce nowadays i can only shake my head. also i can't understand why the wife of one of my best friends needs 500 horse powers (Porsche Cayenne) to buy fresh bread rolls and croissants every morning from a bakery which is located about 1.5 km from their home

I know, in my village these cars are standard cars for the 'Ladies'....Range Rovers, Cayennes, Porsches, Ferraris, Jaguars, Bentleys, all kinds of convertibles, it's absolutely 'normal' in the eyes of these Ladies.

Hundreds and hundreds of them, bringing the kids to school and after that they drive to the local tearooms or go shopping, all within a walking distance. The village has the highest number of Ladies Fashion outlets in the country.

But, the village is just re-elected the # 1 beautiful village in my country, so, no wonder.

There is a crossing with 2 cafe-restaurants; one of them has pre-printed placemats for the kids where they can note how many luxury cars of a certain brand pass the traffic lights within 1 hour...

However, most women in my own country still don't own a car, like in any other country in the world, the majority doesn't have their own car and if they have one, it's financed

LaoPo

[naklang]

From what I hear, 50% of the price of European fuel is tax compared to about 15% in USA. It explains much of the large gap in unit cost since the $$$/bbl is globally priced. Refinery/transport costs vary, but the big hitter remains the taxes. European social/health & human services, employment laws are vastly different than the USA's privatized scenario.

In contrast and at mind boggling cost, USA's leaders and some allies feel we must maintain a vast military presence to try and maintain whatever "order" they feel is most appropriate (like Britain, France, Spain of centuries past). My opinion is that while oil demand is certainly rising briskly (China, India etc), the main factor for the rise in price is the decline of the dollar. Simple as that. And the dollar is getting killed because there is a trillion+ dollar bill coming due for the effort in Iraq to bring that country online as a stable supply of petroleum.

So, even though the world isn't really paying directly/proportionately in blood, money, and toil over there, the world is getting the bill right alongside Americans through the devalued dollar (war debt). In the old days, when the king ran out of gold, the troops came home. Now we can just print IOU's and don't really ever have to pay it back because our military street enforcers say so. If China, our biggest creditor decides he wants his money back + interest, well........thats going to be quite a show.

But many sources say in less than 10 years, Saudi Arabia will be in marked output decline and Iraq remains relatively "untapped" due to decades of sanctions/strife etc. In my opinion, not a coincidence. But what some fail to recognize is that the effort there is not just so greedy, wasteful Americans can gobble up all the oil. It is oil that will be made available to the world market, not the USA's private reserve. So, it's in the world's best interest that the effort there succeed especially given the enormous human and financial cost thus far.

[dclaryjr]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

I just read an article today predicting that it would top out at $4.15 this summer. Meanwhile Ford F-150 trucks are sitting on lots unsold.

Don't tell me you believe everything what's printed, do you ?

Anyone who can predict oil prices is NOT writing articles in papers or magazines about what a gallon of gas is going to be this summer; he's sipping a margarita on his Mega-yacht, surrounded by beautiful girls and not sure whether to take the chopper or the Riva for lunch on the beach...

LaoPo

To be more precise, this came from the head of the Federal Energy Information Administration (whatever that is) in testimony to congress. He also said he expects it to STAY there this year and next!

[LaoPo]

I spoke with my father last night and he told me that the USA is saying that gas prices will go as high as 7 USD by the end of the year so I can't even imagine what that means for us here.

I just read an article today predicting that it would top out at $4.15 this summer. Meanwhile Ford F-150 trucks are sitting on lots unsold.

Don't tell me you believe everything what's printed, do you ?

Anyone who can predict oil prices is NOT writing articles in papers or magazines about what a gallon of gas is going to be this summer; he's sipping a margarita on his Mega-yacht, surrounded by beautiful girls and not sure whether to take the chopper or the Riva for lunch on the beach...

LaoPo

To be more precise, this came from the head of the Federal Energy Information Administration (whatever that is) in testimony to congress. He also said he expects it to STAY there this year and next!

Aaah...I see; finally someone in politics who tells the truth and knows...unfortunately no one is able to guarantee what he says.

LaoPo

[flying]

Well we are at 4.27 in this part of Paradise

Not easy as I drive a truck Dodge Ram 1500

Not a giant but I need it as I am a building contractor.

Think I will buy a small honda though for trips to the market which is 50km or 30 miles away so 100k round trip arrrrrgggggg

I wish there was an alternative really. I would change over to it. But LPG is just as much now & Diesel??? man 5+ a gallon here.....why is that? I thought Diesel was cheaper to make?

Wish we were retired in TL on a scooter now

[BigSnake]

So far the Central Bank has done a good job of keeping the baht strong, for how long is anyone guess. My guess is the worse is behind us, cool calm heads will prevail and things will improve first quarter next year.

[dclaryjr]

Not easy as I drive a truck Dodge Ram 1500

My son is in the same boat with the aforementioned F-150 and a 50mile round trip to work. Hel l, I drive a VW Jetta and that's painful enough. Never thought I'd see the day that a Jetta could hold $50 worth of gas!

[billd766]

I live in Central Thailand and we have a Ford Ranger 4x4 pick up which is paid for and a Yamaha scooter as well.

The day I bought the Ford was December 4th 2001 (the day before the Kings birthday which is how i remember it) I filled the 70 litre tank and I got a couple of baht change from 700. If I were to fill it at todays prices I would probably get some change from 3,000 baht but not a lot.

To fill the Yamaha 2 years ago cost me 120 baht and now probably about 150 baht.

It makes economic sense to use the scooter as much as possible.

[kurgen]

I hope the baht crashes and oil prices go up a bit more

there again I do work in the oil industry and get paid in dollars

[ray23]

Well Lao next tiem yuor down Udon way take note of the SUV and expensive cars also take note on who is driving them, Yuo'll see some farrangs but the majority will be Thai's.

the point about taxes is a valid one yuo guys aren't paying for gas your paying for government.

Remember the 60's muscle cars in the states, remember the gas line in the 70's those 496 Malibu's turned into Chevy Vega's overnight and the same thing is happening now. Off hand I can't remember which American Manufator it wa but they have discontiuned production of UV's so I think they most have been listening to yuo

[britmaveric]

Well prob need to stop the commodity speculators. I don't think its supply/demand issue at all, pure speculators fking up the futures.

[PeaceBlondie]

It seems to me, that the relationship between benzene prices, baht and dollars, is not quite in sync. I am confused, but my notes say I bought a tank at 34.14 baht per liter on April 6, when the baht was at a ten year high, 32.45 baht for a dollar. Now the figures are 42.04 for a liter of benzene 91, and the FX is 33.40. While barrels of crude oil are measured in USD, the dollar is getting stronger against the baht. If these trends continue, we will be looking at 60 baht per liter. Gasohol 91 is 9% cheaper than benzene, however. At 32 km per liter, I should not complain. But I do.

[Naam]

benzene

this expression is (to the best of my knowledge) only used in arab countries and Germany for "gasoline". how come a "Texan PeaceBlondie" is using it repeatedly although the english word benzene denotes a different derivate from crude oil?

[PeaceBlondie]

benzene

this expression is (to the best of my knowledge) only used in arab countries and Germany for "gasoline". how come a "Texan PeaceBlondie" is using it repeatedly although the english word benzene denotes a different derivate from crude oil?

Because I am no longer in Texas I am now in loony Lanna Kingdom, where they clearly refer to gasoline as Benzine or Benzene. Some of my only standard Thai (besides fruits in northern dialect) is to roll in and say "benzene gaow sip, dem tank" which is Urdu for "Too many Benzes in Islamabad, the cows are sipping gas from dem tanks."

[Heng]

Not really worried about the price of gas OR benzene hoss, cuz' with bizness goin' the way 'id is, I'm ridin' the gravy train with biscuit wheels.

[Naam]

benzene

this expression is (to the best of my knowledge) only used in arab countries and Germany for "gasoline". how come a "Texan PeaceBlondie" is using it repeatedly although the english word benzene denotes a different derivate from crude oil?

Because I am no longer in Texas I am now in loony Lanna Kingdom, where they clearly refer to gasoline as Benzine or Benzene. Some of my only standard Thai (besides fruits in northern dialect) is to roll in and say "benzene gaow sip, dem tank" which is Urdu for "Too many Benzes in Islamabad, the cows are sipping gas from dem tanks."

:D

[pkrv]

benzene

this expression is (to the best of my knowledge) only used in arab countries and Germany for "gasoline". how come a "Texan PeaceBlondie" is using it repeatedly although the english word benzene denotes a different derivate from crude oil?

Because I am no longer in Texas I am now in loony Lanna Kingdom, where they clearly refer to gasoline as Benzine or Benzene. Some of my only standard Thai (besides fruits in northern dialect) is to roll in and say "benzene gaow sip, dem tank" which is Urdu for "Too many Benzes in Islamabad, the cows are sipping gas from dem tanks."

You know what. The intellectual might on this forum can reduce me to absolute hysterics, I love it!

Edited June 13, 2008 by pkrv

[Naam]

The intellectual might on this forum...

...might soon be recognized by some wellknown international universities which in return will award academic degrees to outstanding intellectual TV-members such as "Ph.D. h.c.tvi. (TV intellectualis)".

other possible degrees to be awarded might be:

-M. Sc. (Baht forecastensis) or the variations (M.Sc. Pound / Dollar forecastensis)

-Dr. rer.pol.niT. (nihil investus Thailandia non plus affordensis)

[ray23]

I got a Doctorates from Water Buffalo University. does that count

[Naam]

I got a Doctorates from Water Buffalo University. does that count

it all depends whether you wrote your dissertation about healthy or sick buffaloes.