Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[cmsally]

One other thing I think I see is that Monday is likely to be a watershed when the UK announces its financial stimulus plan. If the plan is viewed favorably by the markets then Sterling could well rebound, if it is not then Sterling will almost certainly take a substantial fall, could be a significant turning point - likely this explains in part the large purchases of GBP that were made at around 1.50 earlier this week by JP Morgan and a German bank. Anyone fancy a flutter? It seems to me that Gordo, the UK PM, has recovered a lot of his lost credibility during the past two months as a result of his handling of the UK crisis and his involvement in the global economic picture, quite right too since he was Chancellor for the preceding ten years so he must know a trick or two. OK so you all think he's a prat and maybe he is, but if he does well on Monday he could remain as PM for quite some time. So, poll time (without the poll) Sterling up or down on Monday?

I'll wager Sterling up; but still think Gordy is a prat and only doing it to save his skin. How can it be good for long term if it leaves UK with 100 billion GBP debt and higher taxes in future (but of course not now).

BBC

So on that basis, why Sterling up?

A momentary phase of enthusiasm in an otherwise bleak scenario. Although I am not certain, it might just boost the stockmarket and leave currency standing where it is.

Gordy for some reason thinks he can borrow himself out of this mess and can convince a majority of the UK public too. He is desperate to be the one who can stick his finger in and plug the hole, although it looks as though the hole is set to get rather large.

[chiang mai]

One other thing I think I see is that Monday is likely to be a watershed when the UK announces its financial stimulus plan. If the plan is viewed favorably by the markets then Sterling could well rebound, if it is not then Sterling will almost certainly take a substantial fall, could be a significant turning point - likely this explains in part the large purchases of GBP that were made at around 1.50 earlier this week by JP Morgan and a German bank. Anyone fancy a flutter? It seems to me that Gordo, the UK PM, has recovered a lot of his lost credibility during the past two months as a result of his handling of the UK crisis and his involvement in the global economic picture, quite right too since he was Chancellor for the preceding ten years so he must know a trick or two. OK so you all think he's a prat and maybe he is, but if he does well on Monday he could remain as PM for quite some time. So, poll time (without the poll) Sterling up or down on Monday?

I'll wager Sterling up; but still think Gordy is a prat and only doing it to save his skin. How can it be good for long term if it leaves UK with 100 billion GBP debt and higher taxes in future (but of course not now).

BBC

So on that basis, why Sterling up?

A momentary phase of enthusiasm in an otherwise bleak scenario. Although I am not certain, it might just boost the stockmarket and leave currency standing where it is.

Gordy for some reason thinks he can borrow himself out of this mess and can convince a majority of the UK public too. He is desperate to be the one who can stick his finger in and plug the hole, although it looks as though the hole is set to get rather large.

It seems like you are saying that Sterling could rise in the short term but then fall thereafter and I tend to agree that is the scenario I favour at present, for no other reason than it fits the trend of events thus far. That being the case I have to wonder what it is that will cause all of these problems to subside - more a rhetorical thought than a question.

[chiang mai]

One other thing I think I see is that Monday is likely to be a watershed when the UK announces its financial stimulus plan. If the plan is viewed favorably by the markets then Sterling could well rebound, if it is not then Sterling will almost certainly take a substantial fall, could be a significant turning point - likely this explains in part the large purchases of GBP that were made at around 1.50 earlier this week by JP Morgan and a German bank. Anyone fancy a flutter? It seems to me that Gordo, the UK PM, has recovered a lot of his lost credibility during the past two months as a result of his handling of the UK crisis and his involvement in the global economic picture, quite right too since he was Chancellor for the preceding ten years so he must know a trick or two. OK so you all think he's a prat and maybe he is, but if he does well on Monday he could remain as PM for quite some time. So, poll time (without the poll) Sterling up or down on Monday?

I'll wager Sterling up; but still think Gordy is a prat and only doing it to save his skin. How can it be good for long term if it leaves UK with 100 billion GBP debt and higher taxes in future (but of course not now).

BBC

So on that basis, why Sterling up?

A momentary phase of enthusiasm in an otherwise bleak scenario. Although I am not certain, it might just boost the stockmarket and leave currency standing where it is.

Gordy for some reason thinks he can borrow himself out of this mess and can convince a majority of the UK public too. He is desperate to be the one who can stick his finger in and plug the hole, although it looks as though the hole is set to get rather large.

It seems like you are saying that Sterling could rise in the short term but then fall thereafter and I tend to agree that is the scenario I favour at present, for no other reason than it fits the trend of events thus far. That being the case I have to wonder what it is that will cause all of these problems to subside - more a rhetorical thought than a question.

CORRECTION: Actually, now that I've taken the time to study things I conclude that the fall of Sterling has pretty much ended, maybe see a further brief fall but then headed North it is, I reckon - the opposite of what I thought previously, Oh well, better late than never and no doubt good news for GBP/THB (maybe).

[JimsKnight]

Bold words indeed Mr Chiang!

But I think you might be right...

[spiderman2]

If Britain wishes to open its economy up to more the banking ie manufacturing, the week pound is the place to start, im sure Italy, Ireland, Hungary, Greece would all like a lower Euro to do this.

These tax cuts on Monday (lowering VAT has been mentioned) are to get people into the shops buying goods, now as most these goods are imported it seems Gordy the brilliant economist wishes to send more money abroad via the highstreet, and he is also pushing the banks to lend the most indebted nation on earth to borrow more.

He's fcuked up like no one before him and is about to make the problem worse in order to stay in power, but deep down he knows he wont and that it will be the Torys that have to try and resolve this upcoming disaster, whilst he's cashing in on the lecture and after dinner speaking circuit.

Edited November 22, 2008 by spiderman2

[spiderman2]

Why not offer long term tax cuts to new economy industries such as greener fuels, hybrid cars, biochemical and to R&D to get foreign investment and to create decent jobs, and put tariffs on goods from countries such as Thailand/ China who do the same to us, again this will create British jobs.

And controversially why not use the coal we have in the ground for our energy supplies, instead of funding terrorist backing states like Saudi Arabia.

Edited November 22, 2008 by spiderman2

[JimsKnight]

A fair post spidey.

The coal in the ground is good coal, and many Brits in the coal areas know this.

In the NE England area a lot of it isn't easily accessible now. All the water needs pumping out (not a serious challenge)

The key is, and this is just my theory, that the PTB want to use up other peoples resources more than our own, so when the sht really hits the fan, we can fend for ourselves a bit better.

[Mosha]

Bold words indeed Mr Chiang!

But I think you might be right...

I hope so, and if it is going to drop can it please wait until after the 25th?

[chiang mai]

A fair post spidey.

The coal in the ground is good coal, and many Brits in the coal areas know this.

In the NE England area a lot of it isn't easily accessible now. All the water needs pumping out (not a serious challenge)

The key is, and this is just my theory, that the PTB want to use up other peoples resources more than our own, so when the sht really hits the fan, we can fend for ourselves a bit better.

That's a lovely thought that our government should be so smart but I really doubt it. Anyway, as I recall we sold all the rights to that coal to a SA company, apart from which we really don't want to be burning coal again or perhaps you don't remember the coal fire induced smog of the 1960's, it was dire to say the least. But can you imagine for a moment in a 2008 UK, advertising for miners to go and work down the pits again? We'd have to import huge numbers of Chinese to do the work because Brits of this day and age certainly wouldn't.

[LaoPo]

A fair post spidey.

The coal in the ground is good coal, and many Brits in the coal areas know this.

In the NE England area a lot of it isn't easily accessible now. All the water needs pumping out (not a serious challenge)

The key is, and this is just my theory, that the PTB want to use up other peoples resources more than our own, so when the sht really hits the fan, we can fend for ourselves a bit better.

That's a lovely thought that our government should be so smart but I really doubt it. Anyway, as I recall we sold all the rights to that coal to a SA company, apart from which we really don't want to be burning coal again or perhaps you don't remember the coal fire induced smog of the 1960's, it was dire to say the least. But can you imagine for a moment in a 2008 UK, advertising for miners to go and work down the pits again? We'd have to import huge numbers of Chinese to do the work because Brits of this day and age certainly wouldn't.

And that's, no doubt, the future. Europe is greying and we need extra hands to do the dirty jobs which in fact is already happening now. Not Chinese but from Eastern Europe.

It's like in the 50's and 60's when the Italians, Spaniards and Portuguese traveled up north to find and get jobs.

Mr. Adjiedj Bakas, a future trend watcher from The Netherlands is invited (and paid of course) to help the government from Iceland with ideas to revive the bankrupt country and it's economy.

One of his (wild) ideas was to build factories producing goods/items which need a lot of energy and which goods are now produced in China, amongst others.

Iceland is blessed with almost totally free hydropower- and geothermal energy !

Iceland itself doesn't have enough labor power to run those factories but sending workers there from other countries (temporarily) would solve the problem. On site housing could be easily provided and heated as well.

The economy could be boosted in a relatively short period.

The same could be done in the UK with their coal mines. In the future (electricity) coal burners will not produce the same amount of nasty smoke/dirt anymore and coal burners will be clean.

LaoPo

[JimsKnight]

That's right.

When people harp on about foreign companies having 'ownership' its a very loose term indeed.

The companies OPERATE under the watchful eye of the PTB. Believe me it doesn't take much for the government to step in and basically nationalise an industry, foreign 'owned' or not.

Right now it doesn't need to with energy, but if it did (if TSHTF for example) it would.

[spiderman2]

Ive got to disagree that the British are too work shy to do such sh7tty work, ive lived in mining village as a boy and have family members not work since theyve closed the pits and never will again.

There are plenty of working class British people that do sh7tty dirty jobs on building sites, oil rigs in hospitals, etc, etc...........

The thing is they are not going to do it for 7 pound an hour, when they can stack shelves in Tesco for that much.

Pay people a good living wage ie 15gbp an hour + , so they can afford a family, simple house and a new car every few years and theyll do anything.

Bring in millions of East Europeans to work for the 7 GBP an hour then they wont, i know i wouldnt work for 7gbp an hour doing this kind of manual work or on a uilding site, id stay on the sick as anyone with a little sense would. You think any roughnecks would work for miimum wage?

As for using the coal, they convert it to gas when it is still underground, dont know too much about it but its all to do with not having government approval to do it, also a few coal mines were reopening recently due to the high cost of coal.

I wonder what the UK will do when it cant import cheap foreign labour any longer.

[RAZZELL]

Ive got to disagree that the British are too work shy to do such sh7tty work, ive lived in mining village as a boy and have family members not work since theyve closed the pits and never will again.

There are plenty of working class British people that do sh7tty dirty jobs on building sites, oil rigs in hospitals, etc, etc...........

The thing is they are not going to do it for 7 pound an hour, when they can stack shelves in Tesco for that much.

Pay people a good living wage ie 15gbp an hour + , so they can afford a family, simple house and a new car every few years and theyll do anything.

Bring in millions of East Europeans to work for the 7 GBP an hour then they wont, i know i wouldnt work for 7gbp an hour doing this kind of manual work or on a uilding site, id stay on the sick as anyone with a little sense would. You think any roughnecks would work for miimum wage?

As for using the coal, they convert it to gas when it is still underground, dont know too much about it but its all to do with not having government approval to do it, also a few coal mines were reopening recently due to the high cost of coal.

I wonder what the UK will do when it cant import cheap foreign labour any longer.

With all due respect the attitude that people are "owed" a living is what got the UK into the mess it's in.

If £7 an hour is good enough for a Pole, Estonian, Russian etc Why can't a Brit work for the same amount? I'll tell you why...As a nation we've become bone idle and rely on the welfare state too much..

Where in the careers book did it list "full-time Mum" as a career choice?

RAZZ

Edited November 23, 2008 by RAZZELL

[paulinpattaya]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

I'm afraid the pound will continue to fall, weak economy, low interest rates = low currency value! The rate is currently 52.01 with BKK bank if you do TT from UK in sterling. If only it was 60 baht/£...it'll be along time before this happens again. Remember to send in Sterling, this way will get a Tor Tor sam(3) for the transfer, this is prove the money you sent cam from overseas.

Luckily I bought years ago at 70 baht/£.

[JimsKnight]

Ive got to disagree that the British are too work shy to do such sh7tty work, ive lived in mining village as a boy and have family members not work since theyve closed the pits and never will again.

There are plenty of working class British people that do sh7tty dirty jobs on building sites, oil rigs in hospitals, etc, etc...........

The thing is they are not going to do it for 7 pound an hour, when they can stack shelves in Tesco for that much.

Pay people a good living wage ie 15gbp an hour + , so they can afford a family, simple house and a new car every few years and theyll do anything.

Bring in millions of East Europeans to work for the 7 GBP an hour then they wont, i know i wouldnt work for 7gbp an hour doing this kind of manual work or on a uilding site, id stay on the sick as anyone with a little sense would. You think any roughnecks would work for miimum wage?

As for using the coal, they convert it to gas when it is still underground, dont know too much about it but its all to do with not having government approval to do it, also a few coal mines were reopening recently due to the high cost of coal.

I wonder what the UK will do when it cant import cheap foreign labour any longer.

With all due respect the attitude that people are "owed" a living is what got the UK into the mess it's in.

If £7 an hour is good enough for a Pole, Estonian, Russian etc Why can't a Brit work for the same amount? I'll tell you why...As a nation we've become bone idle and rely on the welfare state too much..

Where in the careers book did it list "full-time Mum" as a career choice?

RAZZ

Well having lived in Thailand long enough to see the Thais get plenty of work and have protected status for jobs I think its high time other countries followed suit.

RAZZZ, you must live in some commie dreamland to believe people in a capitalist society will try and live a life on such meagre coin.

The Poles and suchlike SEND the money they make home, and go home to reap the benefits of living in a CHEAPER country.

Some people really are thick and need to think more on this.

The cost of living in the UK is a high as Norway.

Actually trying to fend for yourself away from a family unit is becoming impossible on such pittance wages.

Unlike them, people who are born and bred in the UK don't have Eastern Europe to scurry away to for spending their hard-earned.

Yes some come to LOS but not every family can do that, certainly not when raising a family etc.

[RAZZELL]

Well having lived in Thailand long enough to see the Thais get plenty of work and have protected status for jobs I think its high time other countries followed suit.

RAZZZ, you must live in some commie dreamland to believe people in a capitalist society will try and live a life on such meagre coin.

The Poles and suchlike SEND the money they make home, and go home to reap the benefits of living in a CHEAPER country.

Some people really are thick and need to think more on this.

The cost of living in the UK is a high as Norway.

Actually trying to fend for yourself away from a family unit is becoming impossible on such pittance wages.

Unlike them, people who are born and bred in the UK don't have Eastern Europe to scurry away to for spending their hard-earned.

Yes some come to LOS but not every family can do that, certainly not when raising a family etc.

"Commie dreamland"???

How I'm I thick??? If other people can live on it (and send money home) why can't Brits survive?

RAZZ

[Mosha]

Remember those post budget day interviews with "working" class family in the streets. Beer & Cigs have gone up, it's the children who will suffer. Having said that we are straying OT again.

Edited November 23, 2008 by Mosha

[Dave the Dude]

With all due respect the attitude that people are "owed" a living is what got the UK into the mess it's in.

If £7 an hour is good enough for a Pole, Estonian, Russian etc Why can't a Brit work for the same amount? I'll tell you why...As a nation we've become bone idle and rely on the welfare state too much..

Where in the careers book did it list "full-time Mum" as a career choice?

RAZZ

I for one agree with you RAZZ having worked on a London building site as recent as 1 month ago.

My brother and I were the ONLY native speakers on the whole site!

It must be remembered that imported labour live 15 to a room and pay no council tax for the pleasure of (to them) big money. Most are F*cking off out of UK now TSHHTF

Dave

[whiterussian]

The thing is they are not going to do it for 7 pound an hour, when they can stack shelves in Tesco for that much.

7 an hour? crickey, was 3 an hour when i was a teenage "shelf supply operative" ! 7 aint half bad!

As the UK teeters on the brink of what experts predict will be the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Government has surrendered £55.8billion to Brussels this year.

£55.8billion for what?

- the eurofighter?

- straight bananas

- the right to buy in the costa del and backward countries.

- a belgium parliament, and a german central bank? deja vu mein herr.

*rant over*

still think the GBP/USD has further to go... doesnt make sense to stop before testing support (if the doomsday propoganda is to be believed)

maybe it will make a 'wedge' shape ► and slowly test it...

Edited November 24, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[Mosha]

On BBC this morning. An increase in taxes on the "rich". However only after the next election, so we can assume it ain't goung to happen.

[spiderman2]

With all due respect the attitude that people are "owed" a living is what got the UK into the mess it's in.

They should bring back national service RAZZ thatll help!.

If £7 an hour is good enough for a Pole, Estonian, Russian etc Why can't a Brit work for the same amount? I'll tell you why...As a nation we've become bone idle and rely on the welfare state too much..

Thats wonderful now the working classes should be brought down to have a standard of living marginally above that of countries barely out of communism.

Id do what my best mate who left school at 16 and has barley had a day off work is doing, ie work 20 hours on the books and get the rest in the back pocket, enabling him to scrounge all the benefits he possibly can, as its the only way he can make ends meet. Is he lazy he works, imo he's doing whats best for his kids?

RIP England.

Edited November 24, 2008 by spiderman2

[spiderman2]

On BBC this morning. An increase in taxes on the "rich". However only after the next election, so we can assume it ain't goung to happen.

To tax those earning over 150k a year at 45%, some unhappy footballer maybe.

Why not make civil servants retire at 65 like the rest of us that'd save 100s of billions, if they strike sack half of them, it wouldnt make too much of a difference and would save even more billions.

[whiterussian]

Its very simple, get out of the EU.

save money. save jobs. save Britain!

The continentals can go back and build houses on what the Brit has to pay for rent on a shitty dwelling!

It wont happen i bet, imagine how much propoganda can be bought for £55.8 billion a year. (thats just the UK!)

where is it going????? SHOW ME THE MONEY!

surrender to the super state... love thy neighbour (and pay for his sick donkey)... help big business expand east!

Edited November 24, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[spiderman2]

[As the UK teeters on the brink of what experts predict will be the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Government has surrendered £55.8billion to Brussels this year.

£55.8billion for what?

- the eurofighter?

- straight bananas

- the right to buy in the costa del and backward countries.

- a belgium parliament, and a german central bank? deja vu mein herr.

*rant over*

That could be the silver lining of this crisis the end of the fascist EU.

One of Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland will be forced to leave the Euro with it being so strong.

[MJP]

Okay, hands up who thinks the UK is likely to do an 'Iceland'?

Will the UK default?

Is the UK too big to save (IMF bail out, not possible)?

Regarding 'saving' the British economy, this VAT cut to 15% is ridiculous. So something going for £9.99 becomes £9.78. Shops won't change the price, just increase the margin. No one's going to risk the big ticket items now, even if VAT was cut to 5%.

[JimsKnight]

Yes, the EU is the biggest wastage for sure, started by the continentals, FOR the continentals!

RAZ, yes I was slightly hasty in my words. Subsitute 'Commie Dreamland' on my last post for 'Socialistic'

Edited November 24, 2008 by JimsKnight

[syd barrett]

Pound v Dollar?

I'm getting 2.5% gross on my GBP but have developed a paranoia that GBP=$US will reach parity or at least go lower to 1.20.

I will get 0% on my $US but obviously a weaker GBP will be around for a while. Do you think I should exchange now at 1.50 or wait a bit?

[chiang mai]

Pound v Dollar?

I'm getting 2.5% gross on my GBP but have developed a paranoia that GBP=$US will reach parity or at least go lower to 1.20.

I will get 0% on my $US but obviously a weaker GBP will be around for a while. Do you think I should exchange now at 1.50 or wait a bit?

If you're only getting 2.5% on GBP and 0% on USD you need to correct that problem before you start to think about exchanging currencies. Nationwide International is still paying up to 2.5% on USD and the GBP rate is at least 4.75%. Onshore rates are also still quite reasonable so you need to move quickly - take a look here:

http://www.nationwideinternational.com/

As for exchanging currencies: I strongly recommend treatment for your parity phobia, thereafter you can take a view as to whether GBP has bottomed and/or whether USD has nearly topped. This week should confirm that story since the UK will today announce their bailout package so wait and see how the markets react - I think the response will be favorable but that's just my personal view.

[RAZZELL]

Yes, the EU is the biggest wastage for sure, started by the continentals, FOR the continentals!

RAZ, yes I was slightly hasty in my words. Subsitute 'Commie Dreamland' on my last post for 'Socialistic'

I believe in a "meritocracy".

"Those of great worth shall get great reward"

(paraphrasing the words of Oswald Mosley)

Are you going to call me fascist now?

RAZZ

[chiang mai]

Maybe it's just me but I thought the UK budget was a bit of a non-event, too much of the same old stuff. I guess the markets felt the same way because whilst GBP/THB went up to 53.01 and GBP/USD gained to 1.51, it doesn't feel like it's going to stick for very long. Oh well, back to the drawing board perhaps.