Thai Baht Exchange Rate

[UmpaLumpa]

can somebody clarify why everytime there is a major negative event in thailand, the

thai baht grows stronger.

after the military coup the baht, compared to the euro, went from 50 to 45.

under military rule the baht was the most growing currency in the world!

now there are major protests in bangkok and political unstability, but the baht still strengthens from 52 (1 month ago) to 49.

i cant get it. i am no economist, but i thought that it should go the other way round.

it might sound selfish, but i wouldnt mind having a couple thousand more to spend at the end of the month, before they all kick us out!

[mgjackson69]

I certainly am no economist either, but to understand what is happening in currencies you need to consider whether currency A (Euro in your case) is getting weaker or currency B (THB) is getting stronger.

So it sometimes helps to compare currency A and B to other currencies, as well as each other.

And of course commodities come into play also, most notably oil, which is pegged to the US dollar.

[plaasak]

because the baht folow the usd and euro is going down against usd

[Naam]

can somebody clarify why everytime there is a major negative event in thailand, the

thai baht grows stronger.

after the military coup the baht, compared to the euro, went from 50 to 45.

under military rule the baht was the most growing currency in the world!

now there are major protests in bangkok and political unstability, but the baht still strengthens from 52 (1 month ago) to 49.

i cant get it. i am no economist, but i thought that it should go the other way round.

it might sound selfish, but i wouldnt mind having a couple thousand more to spend at the end of the month, before they all kick us out!

the negative event as well as the stronger Dollar weakened the Baht considerably for a few days. now the Bank of Thailand is intervening heavily and the Baht strenghtens. going back to the period of military rule the Baht strengthened because of inflow restrictions which caused a two tier exchange rate. that is over since months.

Edited September 4, 2008 by Naam

[Japhrodisiac]

can somebody clarify why everytime there is a major negative event in thailand, the

thai baht grows stronger.

after the military coup the baht, compared to the euro, went from 50 to 45.

under military rule the baht was the most growing currency in the world!

now there are major protests in bangkok and political unstability, but the baht still strengthens from 52 (1 month ago) to 49.

i cant get it. i am no economist, but i thought that it should go the other way round.

it might sound selfish, but i wouldnt mind having a couple thousand more to spend at the end of the month, before they all kick us out!

the negative event as well as the stronger Dollar weakened the Baht considerably for a few days. now the Bank of Thailand is intervening heavily and the Baht strenghtens. going back to the period of military rule the Baht strengthened because of inflow restrictions which caused a two tier exchange rate. that is over since months.

These factors and...

The Thai treasury reserve is something like only 80 billion dollars (baht equiv) so it is easy for speculators to move the currency in the direction they would like to see it go. That is, if BOT doesn't interfere unduly. Then you have the cycle of stronger baht, people jumping on the bandwagon etc...

A simplification but does seem to happen regularly.

[tijnebijn]

Which the BOT can't do forever , but can sing for a long time ahead ,

sadly so for us Euro exchangers ......

But as always after a down turn always eventually comes a recovery , so long

the euro stays slightly around 45 bht , think its still not a bad bargain , guess it will

stick around this number next year .

When inflationary pressures ease , the BOT will no longer intervene and will start cutting rates to spur growth .

At that time the euro might rise again , when the euro zone itself will get in the economic

growth column ( which they need to cut rates for and thus not favourable for euro strength ), which for both will take a considerable time to implement, cause its just in the opposite direction .

Its a guess chess game if talking about currencies .

Perhaps someone dares to give a possible bottom prediction Euro - baht in a not so positive scenario ,

baht euro have seen 42 before hasn't it ?

Edited September 4, 2008 by tijnebijn

[phaethon]

I've been watching the rates against the pound with increasing despondency

It seems that the UK Government is simply screwing up faster than the Thai Government. You can actually see the dip where Alistair Darling opened his big fat mouth at the weekend

K.

[Bengt]

can somebody clarify why everytime there is a major negative event in thailand, the

thai baht grows stronger.

after the military coup the baht, compared to the euro, went from 50 to 45.

under military rule the baht was the most growing currency in the world!

now there are major protests in bangkok and political unstability, but the baht still strengthens from 52 (1 month ago) to 49.

i cant get it. i am no economist, but i thought that it should go the other way round.

it might sound selfish, but i wouldnt mind having a couple thousand more to spend at the end of the month, before they all kick us out!

Maybe the THB is affected by the Japanese Yen that have been increased compared to many currencies even the US$...if i guess right the strengthen of the Yen can affect THB to get stronger too.

Anyone else that have some opinions?

[Jimjim]

Uh, the baht has been weakening against the dollar for a few months now, generally. Ever since the protests started it's gone down, I believe. So, it may be a case of the dollar getting stronger against your currency and/or your currency weakening even faster than the baht. But the baht was in the 33 range to the dollar just a few months ago and now it's at about 34.5. So, from the U.S. dollar's perspective, baht has been getting weaker and weaker, even in the last month.

Edited September 4, 2008 by Jimjim

[Howmal]

I also have watched the Baht and the pound over the last 12 months after returning to the UK after living in Chonburi for three years. Had to return to make some more money. I send money home for wifes parents every month. The days of exchange being at 75 / 72 / 68 have pasted and the Thai Goverment hold the Baht up by flinging money at it when it dips. I also wish that Alistair Darling (Darlingmy A??) had kept his mouth shut.

I return to BKK on the 1st Oct and am not looking forward to getting 63 to the pound but thats what it is looking like. I just hope Gordon Brown can send the pound up in the next two weeks .... I have given up looking at the Baht thinking every day that its going to fall due to all the unrest at present.

As mentioned its going to take 12 to 18 months before the Baht gets back in line and things settle down once again for us FARANGS...... I wonder will the general Thais get the message that our currencies are not worth as much and lower thier prices to reflect the current situation ..... better little than nothing .... live in hope die in dispare

Nothing happen to the currency in Sept 2006 with the coup and Mr T going so I think we have a bit of the same

same same ...but different

Malachy and my ramblings

[Kadafi]

I also have watched the Baht and the pound over the last 12 months after returning to the UK after living in Chonburi for three years. Had to return to make some more money. I send money home for wifes parents every month. The days of exchange being at 75 / 72 / 68 have pasted and the Thai Goverment hold the Baht up by flinging money at it when it dips. I also wish that Alistair Darling (Darlingmy A??) had kept his mouth shut.

I return to BKK on the 1st Oct and am not looking forward to getting 63 to the pound but thats what it is looking like. I just hope Gordon Brown can send the pound up in the next two weeks .... I have given up looking at the Baht thinking every day that its going to fall due to all the unrest at present.

As mentioned its going to take 12 to 18 months before the Baht gets back in line and things settle down once again for us FARANGS...... I wonder will the general Thais get the message that our currencies are not worth as much and lower thier prices to reflect the current situation ..... better little than nothing .... live in hope die in dispare

Nothing happen to the currency in Sept 2006 with the coup and Mr T going so I think we have a bit of the same

same same ...but different

Malachy and my ramblings

I was shocked Alistair Darling made some comments and yes you can notice the immediate drop in the sterling on the monday morning, what kind of prat makes a statement like that and expects anything less than a further damage to the pound.

If you are in BKK in October i think at best you will be looking 63 baht to the pound, the pound is at 61 and still dropping so it could be worse than the current rate (i would take 63 with open arms) with the current position we are in.

Also the coup of 2006 made no difference, BOT must of supported the fall then and they are doing exactly the same now which is frustrating to say the least. With the UK heading into recession an exchange rate of the low 60's is more than exceptable (i just hope it doesnt go to the mid 50's or lower)...

[keithsimmonds]

I also have watched the Baht and the pound over the last 12 months after returning to the UK after living in Chonburi for three years. Had to return to make some more money. I send money home for wifes parents every month. The days of exchange being at 75 / 72 / 68 have pasted and the Thai Goverment hold the Baht up by flinging money at it when it dips. I also wish that Alistair Darling (Darlingmy A??) had kept his mouth shut.

I return to BKK on the 1st Oct and am not looking forward to getting 63 to the pound but thats what it is looking like. I just hope Gordon Brown can send the pound up in the next two weeks .... I have given up looking at the Baht thinking every day that its going to fall due to all the unrest at present.

As mentioned its going to take 12 to 18 months before the Baht gets back in line and things settle down once again for us FARANGS...... I wonder will the general Thais get the message that our currencies are not worth as much and lower thier prices to reflect the current situation ..... better little than nothing .... live in hope die in dispare

Nothing happen to the currency in Sept 2006 with the coup and Mr T going so I think we have a bit of the same

same same ...but different

Malachy and my ramblings

I was shocked Alistair Darling made some comments and yes you can notice the immediate drop in the sterling on the monday morning, what kind of prat makes a statement like that and expects anything less than a further damage to the pound.

If you are in BKK in October i think at best you will be looking 63 baht to the pound, the pound is at 61 and still dropping so it could be worse than the current rate (i would take 63 with open arms) with the current position we are in.

Also the coup of 2006 made no difference, BOT must of supported the fall then and they are doing exactly the same now which is frustrating to say the least. With the UK heading into recession an exchange rate of the low 60's is more than exceptable (i just hope it doesnt go to the mid 50's or lower)...

I travel back on the 1st oct, and just been on the kasikorn bank web and its showing 59.74 so i would be glad to see 63bht.things no looking so good!

[billd766]

I have been tracking the GBP / THB exchange rate since 1st December last year and it looks a bit like this.

Bills_BBL_Forex_02..xls