Democrat-run major cities has by far the largest effect on homicides. Gun violence is highly concentrated. Many of the highest-rate or highest-absolute cities (Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis, Memphis, Detroit, New Orleans, parts of Philadelphia, etc.) have had Democratic mayors and leadership for decades, often with progressive prosecutors and post-2020 policing changes. Analyses show a small number of urban counties and cities account for a disproportionate share of U.S. gun homicides (tens of percent in absolute terms). Removing gun deaths occurring in major high-violence urban cores could subtract several thousand homicides annually (rough range: 4,000–7,000 depending on exact "major cities" cutoff). This would drop U.S. firearm homicides to perhaps 8,000–11,000 per year and the gun homicide rate to roughly 2.5–3.5 per 100,000.
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