Lehman Was A Major Bangkok Landlord

[midas]

ands of banks failing etc,

Ps excellent article here http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4849789.ece

Thanks !

Ah yes - Hank Paulson, the former Wall Street banker and incompetent US Treasury Secretary.

How this guy got to where he is just amazes me ! He does NOT impress me at all !

[shochu]

a good article????

if you actually believe this then you are irreparably sheeple!!!

i could add more - but it would probably be lost in translation.

[quiksilva]

Oh come shochu I enjoy your posts, you let me down when i saw that you had replied I was looking forward to reading your thoughts. It might surprise you to learn that I actually welcome your points of view, especially because they usually challenge me to reevaluate my own.

So come on, whats wrong with the article?

Yes there were points that were overly politicized (even though that angle does make sense to me) but I do believe with basic premise that there should be a bailout package, just as Thailand did with the TAMC. It worked here, so why not there?

[midas]

Oh come shochu I enjoy your posts, you let me down when i saw that you had replied I was looking forward to reading your thoughts. It might surprise you to learn that I actually welcome your points of view, especially because they usually challenge me to reevaluate my own.

So come on, whats wrong with the article?

Yes there were points that were overly politicized (even though that angle does make sense to me) but I do believe with basic premise that there should be a bailout package, just as Thailand did with the TAMC. It worked here, so why not there?

a lot of the article is devoted to describing the incompetence of Henry Paulson -I hope

shochu isn't upset because he is a supporter of that guy incompetent is too kind

for this person-it is more like lampoon

[cclub75]

Plenty of funds are looking at Lehman's commercial assets here, as I have already reported ING have publicly announced their interest in the BKK Post, and I know with 100% certainty, that other players are in serious discussions to acquire their commercial properties.

Sure... it costs nothing to talk.

Many people were talking, interested in buying Lehman, X, Y, Z, from many parts of the world (Korea, Europe, USA, Singapore etc.).

When everything is falling apart, "talks" about the "25th hour deals" is the last hope, the last branch of the (Christmas) tree...

Your obstinacy is striking. You even can't imagine that a building, a tower, a mere assembly of bricks with nice decoration, eventhough located within the golden triangle, can have ZERO value, in case of a severe crisis.

You even discard history. The center of Tokyo was more expensive than all lands in California combined, blabla at the end of the 80s, you should know the drill.

But no. This time is different. Bangkok is different. It has to be different. Someone will buy. Right ?

You lack humility. It is as simple as that.

[midas]

Plenty of funds are looking at Lehman's commercial assets here, as I have already reported ING have publicly announced their interest in the BKK Post, and I know with 100% certainty, that other players are in serious discussions to acquire their commercial properties.

Sure... it costs nothing to talk.

Many people were talking, interested in buying Lehman, X, Y, Z, from many parts of the world (Korea, Europe, USA, Singapore etc.).

When everything is falling apart, "talks" about the "25th hour deals" is the last hope, the last branch of the (Christmas) tree...

Your obstinacy is striking. You even can't imagine that a building, a tower, a mere assembly of bricks with nice decoration, eventhough located within the golden triangle, can have ZERO value, in case of a severe crisis.

You even discard history. The center of Tokyo was more expensive than all lands in California combined, blabla at the end of the 80s, you should know the drill.

But no. This time is different. Bangkok is different. It has to be different. Someone will buy. Right ?

You lack humility. It is as simple as that.

I agree with your some of your comments cclub75. Although I could never imagine a building in the

golden triangle having a ZERO value but I think I understand what you are saying.

I think real estate professional do themselves great disservice when they continually try to put a positive spin on things

no matter what is happening in reality. A little bit like the article yesterday saying that the condominium market is still

going strongly ! Unlike any other commodity or asset which is in " real-time " the disparate nature of the real estate market

makes it completely impossible to have a property market in real-time so you can only rely on credible professionals

to tell you exactly what is happening in the market without any hype or distortion. But we never see that regarding Bangkok or even a warning

based on what is happening in other parts of the world or in other markets that they may be a long downturn.

The story is always given to appear that one needs to hurry to avoid missing a buying opportunity or that

conditions have not changed a bit despite what's happening everywhere else.

[shochu]

okay.

quicksilva and others who may have misinterpreted my feelings towards these people who write this stuff and who they work for and the majority of the people who follow this stuff - if you fit the bill then so be it - it was not directed at any one personally.

it was more of an exasperated response at the fact that most of the news is part of the game. could there be any other reason a few corps control most the of the world news.

you don;t actually believe that someone who once ran one the the largest and fattest firms on wall street is this stupid or naive - do you? this is all a part of a script (no i don;t like this guy). this is called damage control - they are telling you what you want to hear - since the street is saying he is a crook - he is the fall guy for now - although he is one of them. these guys are good at what they do - and also more intelligent than most people - that is why you are where you are and they are where they are at.

midas touches on some good points. the commercial market is tilting and there is talk that the mid east will be a ghost town after the dust settles. for all the talk of the mid east having bucket fulls of money - anyone actually involved in the market knows they are highly leveraged and are showing signs of panic.

Edited October 1, 2008 by shochu

[bingobongo]

now now folks, lets not pick on quicksilva, after all he may a bagholder in denial, but more importantly, back to the credit makets...................

pain is coming to a builder/developer/homedebtor near you.........

Thai developer Preuksa delays bond sale to next year

Thai developer Preuksa Real Estate PS.BK said on Wednesday it had delayed a plan to sell three-year bonds worth up to 1.5 billion baht ($44 million) to next year due to unfavourable global financial conditions

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBKK36639320081001

Edited October 1, 2008 by bingobongo

[steveromagnino]

my company has a huge wad of cash and we HOPE that we can get our hands on 185. Ready to buy it now. Cash arranged.

Do we think it will ever come up for sale at a cheap price?

Chances are like 1 in 1 million.

We are one of a stream of developers with access to mega bucks.

Sails, Regent etc are a lot more problematic; and those are the types of projects that end up taking ages to sort.

But vacant land ripe to be developed?

BRING IT ON!

[bingobongo]

my company has a huge wad of cash and we HOPE that we can get our hands on 185. Ready to buy it now. Cash arranged.

Do we think it will ever come up for sale at a cheap price?

Chances are like 1 in 1 million.

We are one of a stream of developers with access to mega bucks.

Sails, Regent etc are a lot more problematic; and those are the types of projects that end up taking ages to sort.

But vacant land ripe to be developed?

BRING IT ON!

right keep developing and add to the already large oversupply...........pure genius i tell you, pure genius

when credit markets freeze, large down payments are required, credit terms tighten, rates spike......and viola no one left to buy into the albatross

[shochu]

quicksilva,

just remembered i forgot to address your point!

the bailout is a bad idea - why? because it will only prolong the inevitable and even make it worse - and what it really is a disguise to allow the insiders to deleverage and unwind their positions a bit more unto the shorn.

in 1920-22 (can't remember exact dates) there was a crash just as bad as the one most remember in 1929-35/6. the difference is the first one was left to its own devices and quickly was unraveled and business was back to usual very quickly (funny how nobdy ever discusses this). the latter one - due to intervention (intentional - much like this prolonged one) only made it much worse and for the most part was a kind of eminent domain style grab of working class peoples assets as opposed to land (well people lost a lot of land then too - but also everything else).

[midas]

my company has a huge wad of cash and we HOPE that we can get our hands on 185. Ready to buy it now. Cash arranged.

Do we think it will ever come up for sale at a cheap price?

Chances are like 1 in 1 million.

We are one of a stream of developers with access to mega bucks.

Sails, Regent etc are a lot more problematic; and those are the types of projects that end up taking ages to sort.

But vacant land ripe to be developed?

BRING IT ON!

steveromagninoI admire your courage because who are you going to sell to .............?

TRADE FEARS

US crisis likely to hurt exports

By Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul,

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

Published on October 1, 2008

Thai shipments expected to be affected by global financial woes

The US financial crisis will directly affect Thai goods shipments to that country next year, with other major export markets also hit, exporters and manufacturers said yesterday.

They warned the Kingdom could face an outflow of capital by American investors. Banks will be more cautious with lending, which will directly affect manufacturers' operations.

Adding to the problem are expectations that Thailand's economy will grow less than 4 per cent.

Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman Santi Vilassakdanont expects the US Congress eventually to approve a $700 billion bail-out plan to ease the financial crisis.

He said Thailand would definitely be hurt by the financial turmoil in the US, because 20 per cent of the Kingdom's exports were sent to that country.

As well, he believes the crisis will spread throughout Europe and to Japan, which are also important export destinations for Thailand.

"The Commerce Ministry must evaluate the impact on each industry's exports and formulate a plan to address the effects on exports next year," he said.

FTI executives are scheduled to meet with Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvech on Friday. Santi expressed concern that sensitive capital transfers would make foreign exchange less stable.

He said the central bank should not increase interest rates during this economic downturn, because that would increase operating costs.

"If a huge amount of capital flows out of the country, it will result in a tightening of financial liquidity, so I'm concerned banks will become more careful about granting loans to small and medium-sized enterprises next year," he said.

Transamut Foods chairman Paiboon Ponsuwanna said the US financial crisis had not made an immediate impact on Thailand. Thai manufacturers and exporters have received a normal amount of orders for the fourth quarter.

However, the crisis has had a psychological effect, creating expectations of US importers eventually halting new orders for Thai goods.

"It is expected the impact on Thailand will be felt early next year. Exporters should draw up plans to cope with that," he said.

Paiboon, who is also vice president of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said exporters relying mainly on the US market would face declines in orders next year. Other major trading partners of the US will also be hit, such as Europe, Japan and the rest of Asean.

"To maintain competitiveness, those who rely on the US market should concentrate on cash flow, raw materials and cost management," he said.

Veteran economist Narongchai Akrasanee called the US financial crisis "a tsunami that hit Europe first before slowly heading for Asia".

He said it was actually fortunate that recent political conflict in Thailand had kept foreign investment down, because otherwise the effect would have been bigger, due to huge capital outflows.

The Kingdom currently has considerable foreign-exchange reserves of about US$120 billion (Bt4 trillion).

He agreed with a proposal by the Thai Bankers' Association that the central bank keep a close watch on the country's liquidity. Former Industry Ministry permanent secretary Chakramon Phasukavanich agreed Thailand would face an economic slump next year because of the US financial crisis.

He said politics had partly influenced the US House of Representative's rejection of the emergency bail-out plan, plus one survey showed 55 per cent of respondents disagreed with the plan.

He added that the political situation would be another main factor in the country's economy.

[bkkjames]

my company has a huge wad of cash and we HOPE that we can get our hands on 185. Ready to buy it now. Cash arranged.

Do we think it will ever come up for sale at a cheap price?

Chances are like 1 in 1 million.

We are one of a stream of developers with access to mega bucks.

Sails, Regent etc are a lot more problematic; and those are the types of projects that end up taking ages to sort.

But vacant land ripe to be developed?

BRING IT ON!

I think you have a better chance of landing the River over 185, but I digress.

As a man who knows the industry, can you tell me who bought that land on Suk Soi 6 ( the most expensive ever) and what are the plans? I have seen the developers clear out all the garbage and add some more hoarding, but other than that its a empty as a.....

[quiksilva]

Plenty of funds are looking at Lehman's commercial assets here, as I have already reported ING have publicly announced their interest in the BKK Post, and I know with 100% certainty, that other players are in serious discussions to acquire their commercial properties.

Sure... it costs nothing to talk.

Due diligence is not free.

You see its not a question of a lack of humility, cclub75, when I make statements with absolute certainty, I do so because I actually know what is happening, first hand, but I can't go into details here for obvious reasons.

Do you have first hand experience with this particular transaction? I assume that you don't, because if you did you would not hold this point of view.

See? This is not a case of me believing that I am better than you,(or anyone for that matter), can you honestly not see that because of my position that just perhaps, I might have better access to information?

I share what I can, only to inform. I don't ask for anything in return, and I am not aggressively promoting my firm. I don't flame but do receive plenty of thinly veiled insults, which makes me wonder why I bother at all...

Edited October 2, 2008 by quiksilva

[steveromagnino]

I think you have a better chance of landing the River over 185, but I digress.

As a man who knows the industry, can you tell me who bought that land on Suk Soi 6 ( the most expensive ever) and what are the plans? I have seen the developers clear out all the garbage and add some more hoarding, but other than that its a empty as a.....

Off hand, cannot recall, but have been told before; I am really scratching my head and am drawing a blank.

The process of development, in many cases the land has one loan and then there are other loans along the way at certain milestones.

They may be wanting to onsell the land or maybe are mired in trying to figure out how to develop something that will make money (which isn't easy, for sure that site if residential and for some reason I am thinking it is a hotel/office it would be at least 140k per sqm and more likely 180k at today's prices) and then there are a bunch of regulations now required - EIA etc etc.

I will find out and get back to you.

As for the issue of 'who is buying' as with anything real estate there are plenty of cash rich buyers in the market RIGHT NOW and I know at least one brand new project still in solf launch continued to sell in the last 2+ weeks despite everything that has gone on.

There's no question that it is a lot harder to sell in this market than a booming one. But not impossible.

185....in a tight market 300k per sqm might be really tough.

But if someone offered the building at 200k per sqm at quality on par with Sukhothai, then I suspect the banking families of Thailand, CP family and Seea Charoen would buy the entire building within a couple of days (and all have cash, to pay upfront). So who to sell to, some of these people tons and tons of cash sitting in the bank that they don't want to put into shares or fixed deposits - it is all about the value proposition and 185 at 200k is going to work (and this would require getting the land at a very very cheap price, but then thereafter would be easily doable).

And that's why we would love to buy the land.....however we are not the only ones with the cash or the desire to do so.

[thaihome]

steveromagninoI admire your courage because who are you going to sell to .............?

TRADE FEARS

US crisis likely to hurt exports

By Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul,

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

Published on October 1, 2008

...

Adding to the problem are expectations that Thailand's economy will grow less than 4 per cent.

...

Why in your bolding of negative staements did you not bold this one? it is actually one of the most important ones. A growth of 4% while not the 7-10% some would like, is nothing to sneeze at and is not anywhere near a recession, much less a depression.

Certainly with that growth rate, people will continue to have money to buy property, may be less then when the rate was at 8% or more, but they still exists.

TH

[midas]

steveromagninoI admire your courage because who are you going to sell to .............?

TRADE FEARS

US crisis likely to hurt exports

By Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul,

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

Published on October 1, 2008

...

Adding to the problem are expectations that Thailand's economy will grow less than 4 per cent.

...

Why in your bolding of negative staements did you not bold this one? it is actually one of the most important ones. A growth of 4% while not the 7-10% some would like, is nothing to sneeze at and is not anywhere near a recession, much less a depression.

Certainly with that growth rate, people will continue to have money to buy property, may be less then when the rate was at 8% or more, but they still exists.

TH

Because " less than 4% " could mean anywhere from 0-4 We havent even got political

stability here yet so in any case how much reliance can you place on these kinds of forecasts ?

[bkkjames]

some SET news that may be topical...

Subject: Resolutions of the Board of Directors' Meeting of connected

transactions with related company

To: President

The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Dear Sir,

Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited ('the Company'), would like

to disclose the resolution of the Board of Directors No. 10/2551 on October 2,

2008 that the Board resolved to authorize the executive directors to sign the

Memorandum of Understanding with Nomura Group in order to support the

acquisition deal of Nomura in Lehman Brothers by hiring staff of Lehman

Brothers Companies in Thailand to be the Company's staff and the Company will

reimburse all cost and liability incurred from this employment from Nomura on

actual cost plus 10% margin.

Details of the agreement shall be informed when it was considered and approved

by the Board of Directors.

Please be informed accordingly.

[midas]

As for the issue of 'who is buying' as with anything real estate there are plenty of cash rich buyers in the market RIGHT NOW and I know at least one brand new project still in solf launch continued to sell in the last 2+ weeks despite everything that has gone on.

There's no question that it is a lot harder to sell in this market than a booming one. But not impossible.

I'm just curious if those TV members ( with more of the bull market mentality than bear market )

in this real estate section have been reading some of

the recent postings in the Jobs, economy, banking, business, investment in Thailand section?

As people have been digging deep or pulling teeth for more information about this credit crunch and bail out package

there are some quite startling and potentially frightening facts and figures coming out.

I keep a very close watch on the media but none of this recent

information has been covered. Perhaps it's because

the general population wouldn't be able to comprehend it or wouldn't even be inclined

to try to understand it or maybe they worry if the general poulation knew

too much about this there could be mass panic. I'm referring to CDS

Do you understand the extent of these problems-how big they really are?

We're talking about a potential exposure of up to 600 TRILLION

dollars ( not Billion ) which is TEN TIMES the World GDP This is why that what is

being said in this section as if it's business as usual is just not believable and even if it still

business as usual -hang on folks because it's going to be a rough ride!

[Pakboong]

There are some very interesting revelations falling out of the hearings for Lehman's bankruptcy. I recommend to anyone interested in this thread to follow the proceedings. IMHO Those that think this problem is going away are in for quite a rough next few years.