Aussie Dollar

[britmaveric]

VegasVic - has it right, best bet move dosh into $ if you can before it really gets bad.

[zorro1]

How could I get a large amount of bht from a possible condo sale into oz? From what I understand In Los you have to change currency here (onshore) via T/T. That would be a major dump in conversion.. Also are there any taxes to pay? Can I take the lot in a suitcase and declare in Sydney?

edit

Is there any tax to pay on condo sale such as captiol gains on a Tourist visa?

Edited October 12, 2008 by zorro1

[GungaDin]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2269956

Just posted, it maybe of interest to anyone with money in Aus.

[ray08]

How could I get a large amount of bht from a possible condo sale into oz? From what I understand In Los you have to change currency here (onshore) via T/T. That would be a major dump in conversion.. Also are there any taxes to pay? Can I take the lot in a suitcase and declare in Sydney?

edit

Is there any tax to pay on condo sale such as captiol gains on a Tourist visa?

Changing thai baht offshore would be worse , in paper money a major headache and not allowed to take out of country ,ok to take in Oz if declared , if you have Thai Baht to change into Aud ,now is a great time ,might go lower but anything around 22-23 thb to the Aud is good value , if the market comes to it"s senses you might see thb weaken against dollar ,

In regards to taxes , better an accountant give some advice as there could be some ways around it depending on situation

[lannarebirth]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2269956

Just posted, it maybe of interest to anyone with money in Aus.

So, now you know why the $AUD was tanking and will likely continue to do so. Still, it's better than losing the underlying money.

[sibeymai]

Very happy I borrowed money in Oz back in August. I now owe 30% less (in baht) than I borrowed. Maybe time to borrow in baht and pay back the AUD.

Swings and roundabouts - winners and losers.

[LaoPo]

Very happy I borrowed money in Oz back in August. I now owe 30% less (in baht) than I borrowed. Maybe time to borrow in baht and pay back the AUD.

Swings and roundabouts - winners and losers.

True, but only if you make your money in Baht and repay the loan in AUD. But your idea to borrow Baht and repay the AUD's is not a bad one

LaoPo

[Farma]

It's on its way up again but for how long. Bangkok bank is showing it at 23.64 baht now

From news.com.au

"THE dollar was 6 per cent firmer at noon as a record points gain on Wall Street sparked a flurry of demand for high-yielding currencies.

At 12.00pm (AEDT), the Australian dollar was trading at $US0.7067/71, up almost four US cents from yesterday's close of $US0.6672/77.

Since the session open, the local currency has traded between an early morning low of $US0.6953 and a late morning high of $US0.7120, the Australian dollar's strongest showing since October 9."

[samuibeachcomber]

yes that is good news,may it long continue.I have to bring money over in dec.and am hoping for a return to at least 28baht,of course i could be dreaming.

[GungaDin]

I'm definitely dreaming of ...........................................................30bt please God !

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

[Naam]

THB/AUD transfer 23.13875 / cash 22.94

THB/USD transfer 33.97 / cash 33.69

Siam Commercial 17.15 hrs

[cocopops]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

Edited October 15, 2008 by cocopops

[LaoPo]

22.50 THB/AUD...

The Ozzies better buckle up and tighten their belts:

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Drop on Global Recession Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...;refer=currency

AND:

Australia Stocks Fall on Concern World Economy Will Deteriorate

By Shani Raja

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australian stocks tumbled, led by banks, resources and energy companies, on concern the global economy will deteriorate, even as governments beef up efforts to stabilize the international banking system.

Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's biggest securities company, slumped 8.5 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, plunged the most in 21 years. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. dropped to its lowest price since March 2007.

``The market's now pricing in a significant global slowdown,'' said Saxon Nicholls, Melbourne-based principal at Herschel Asset Management Ltd., which manages about $500 million. ``That implies slowing demand for commodities, and the concept of a more general slowdown affecting pretty much everything.''

Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 5.5 percent to 4,036.90 at 10:20 a.m., stalling its rebound from the worst weekly rout in its history dating back to 1992 as governments worldwide took steps to shore up banks. U.S. stocks dropped the most since 1987 yesterday after the biggest decline in retail sales in three years, and amid growing doubts that bank bailouts will prevent the economic slump from worsening.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index sank 9 percent to 907.84, with nine companies declining more than 20 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 733.08, or 7.9 percent, to 8,577.91, its second-biggest point drop ever.

A measure of six metals traded in London slumped 6.5 percent yesterday, with copper dropping 7.2 percent, zinc 6.7 percent and nickel 7 percent. In New York, crude oil fell 5.2 percent, and dropped below $75 a barrel for the first time in more than a year.

-Bloomberg

LaoPo

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

I agree with you coco it could drop more before it gets any better, but in the long run (could be Years) it will return to the .75 area in the mean time my condo is paid for and so is everything else, have enough baht to last a couple of years so will worry about it when the baht run out. I don't think this recession is going to pass quickly. But then most everybody is going through the same $$ problems of what to do with it and remain safe while getting a reasonable return. My crystal ball has gone missing, think it might have been Naams dog that got it.

[lannarebirth]

Stuck between two gaps. Will probably fill both at some point, but that can take a long time:

[harrry]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

I agree with you coco it could drop more before it gets any better, but in the long run (could be Years) it will return to the .75 area in the mean time my condo is paid for and so is everything else, have enough baht to last a couple of years so will worry about it when the baht run out. I don't think this recession is going to pass quickly. But then most everybody is going through the same $$ problems of what to do with it and remain safe while getting a reasonable return. My crystal ball has gone missing, think it might have been Naams dog that got it.

Naam has a lot to answer for. First his dog stealing your crystal ball but also filling in his pond with all his worldly wealth. That fill he put in it probably consists of numerous cans of Caspian caviar and bottles of top champagne so he will eat well while we lesser mortals starve.

I know the Oz dollar is going to be down against the US for quite a while but I hope that at least the baht will drop to be a better match to the Oz dollar.

[GungaDin]

I picked a great time to move back to Thailand.......NOT!

[patongster]

RBA in second Aussie dollar intervention

Monday October 27, 2008, 5:18 pm

The Australian dollar appeared to steady above 61 US cents, and above the five and a half year low it reached over the weekend, after the central bank intervened twice to support the unit.

The Australian dollar was pounded on Friday night Australian time to 60.60 US cents - its worst level since April, 2003.

It closed in Australia on Monday at 61.22 US cents, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bought up the unit in offshore trading on Friday and during Monday's local session.

The RBA did not say at what level it bought the unit.

"We provided some liquidity on Friday night," a spokesman for the RBA said on Monday.

"Did we buy some Australian dollars on Friday night? Yes we did.

"We're not defending any particular level, we're providing liquidity," the spokesman said.

However, it did signal it would intervene again if needed and did so again during Monday's local trading session.

The two interventions mark the third and fourth time the central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the local currency since 2001.

The central bank intervened in the currency market in August 2007, in the early days of the credit crunch, and in 2001, when the Australian dollar was worth less than 50 US cents.

On Friday, the currency also fell to 55.10 Japanese yen during offshore trade, its lowest point since the end of World War II.

While the Australian dollar ended on Monday at 61.22 US cents, it was still down from 63.91 US cents at Friday's local close.

It had spent most of the session trading around 61.95 US cents.

Currency strategists said it remained vulnerable to falling to lower levels.

[Livinginexile]

RBA in second Aussie dollar intervention

Monday October 27, 2008, 5:18 pm

The Australian dollar appeared to steady above 61 US cents, and above the five and a half year low it reached over the weekend, after the central bank intervened twice to support the unit.

The Australian dollar was pounded on Friday night Australian time to 60.60 US cents - its worst level since April, 2003.

It closed in Australia on Monday at 61.22 US cents, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bought up the unit in offshore trading on Friday and during Monday's local session.

The RBA did not say at what level it bought the unit.

"We provided some liquidity on Friday night," a spokesman for the RBA said on Monday.

"Did we buy some Australian dollars on Friday night? Yes we did.

"We're not defending any particular level, we're providing liquidity," the spokesman said.

However, it did signal it would intervene again if needed and did so again during Monday's local trading session.

The two interventions mark the third and fourth time the central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the local currency since 2001.

The central bank intervened in the currency market in August 2007, in the early days of the credit crunch, and in 2001, when the Australian dollar was worth less than 50 US cents.

On Friday, the currency also fell to 55.10 Japanese yen during offshore trade, its lowest point since the end of World War II.

While the Australian dollar ended on Monday at 61.22 US cents, it was still down from 63.91 US cents at Friday's local close.

It had spent most of the session trading around 61.95 US cents.

Currency strategists said it remained vulnerable to falling to lower levels.

AUD Australia 20.54 22.15

Ohhh thats gunna hurt

[VegasVic]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

You are spot on coco! The only reason that the aussie dollar was up at those stratospheric levels over the past few years is because of the Yen carry trade and the unreal bull market in commodities (along with an incredibly weak Dollar), and that bull has turned into a bear and that bear will be with us for a while! Even when the Euro does eventually turn around vs. the Dollar, the aussie dollar will rermain down because it is so closely tied to commodities. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade will be with us for a while and even when it does completely unwind I wouldn't expect it to begin anew, so the prospects for the aussie dollar to rebound any time over the next year (or years) are highly unlikely, your .55 prediction will likely be hit before years end, despite the wishful thinking of BTDT

[ray08]

As well ,the reserve bank would be looking at a interest rate drop, that would increase pressure on Aud , IMO the the Aud is oversold

i would expect 70-75 to the Usd as a workable rate , and around 28-30 to the thb , Euro around .58-60 , but as market is in turmoil who know where it will go and settle

[midas]

It's obvious I don't have an understanding of the psychology relating to currency markets

because I cannot understand how Thailand benefits in the end from maintaining such a strong baht?

it is bound to put off a number of " would be tourists " that may choose a different destination

and surely it will be uncompetitive regarding some commodities and items that Thailand

currently exports?

Admittedly farmers in Isaan will still be able to afford to buy their brand-new

Toyota Vigo pickups on finance but surely it cant all be about that ? there are so many other

parts of the economy that will be damaged from a high baht

-or am I completely wrong?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

You are spot on coco! The only reason that the aussie dollar was up at those stratospheric levels over the past few years is because of the Yen carry trade and the unreal bull market in commodities (along with an incredibly weak Dollar), and that bull has turned into a bear and that bear will be with us for a while! Even when the Euro does eventually turn around vs. the Dollar, the aussie dollar will rermain down because it is so closely tied to commodities. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade will be with us for a while and even when it does completely unwind I wouldn't expect it to begin anew, so the prospects for the aussie dollar to rebound any time over the next year (or years) are highly unlikely, your .55 prediction will likely be hit before years end, despite the wishful thinking of BTDT

Once the commodity market starts to move up the AUD will move with it as it always does. This could take some time but it will happen.

Vic as usual does not like anything that isn't american or american controlled. But then how can you take anyone that thinks Sarah Palin would make a good president serious? She would make Bush look good.

[VegasVic]

My guess is it will creep back up to .75 and hang out there for a while. That is where it has spent a lot of time over the last few years, at least it seems that way to me. So we need to see the baht go to 40 to the US $ to achieve 30 for a aussie $ again, (that is assuming .75 is right).

Cautiously optimistic that. There don't seem to be a lot of arguments out there

supporting a resurgence against USD. 0.75 is not too far fetched I suppose, but

0.55 seems a lot more likely. Carry trade is over, nobody has any real money to

invest in a foreign country and the trade deficit is still a big bugger. And interest

rates have further to fall in Australia than anywhere else bar New Zealand. None

of this says strong Aussie dollar to this layman.

Australians living abroad should at least consider moving some of their money

into USD. Crazy as that sounds...

You are spot on coco! The only reason that the aussie dollar was up at those stratospheric levels over the past few years is because of the Yen carry trade and the unreal bull market in commodities (along with an incredibly weak Dollar), and that bull has turned into a bear and that bear will be with us for a while! Even when the Euro does eventually turn around vs. the Dollar, the aussie dollar will rermain down because it is so closely tied to commodities. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade will be with us for a while and even when it does completely unwind I wouldn't expect it to begin anew, so the prospects for the aussie dollar to rebound any time over the next year (or years) are highly unlikely, your .55 prediction will likely be hit before years end, despite the wishful thinking of BTDT

Once the commodity market starts to move up the AUD will move with it as it always does. This could take some time but it will happen.

Vic as usual does not like anything that isn't american or american controlled. But then how can you take anyone that thinks Sarah Palin would make a good president serious? She would make Bush look good.

BTDT, your grip on reality seems to be slipping a bit there buddy First of all, the last time I looked Sarah Palin was not running for President, and considering that I have never mentioned or refered to Mrs. Palin in any of my posts how would you know what I think about her capabilities? You are right about one thing, and that is the aussie dollar will not have any chance to make a comeback until the commodity market has another big bubble (could be 3-4 years or longer) until then you had better get use to a sub .50 to the Dollar exchange rate for your beloved aussie dollar

[Golden Nugget]

You are spot on coco! The only reason that the aussie dollar was up at those stratospheric levels over the past few years is because of the Yen carry trade and the unreal bull market in commodities (along with an incredibly weak Dollar), and that bull has turned into a bear and that bear will be with us for a while! Even when the Euro does eventually turn around vs. the Dollar, the aussie dollar will rermain down because it is so closely tied to commodities. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade will be with us for a while and even when it does completely unwind I wouldn't expect it to begin anew, so the prospects for the aussie dollar to rebound any time over the next year (or years) are highly unlikely, your .55 prediction will likely be hit before years end, despite the wishful thinking of BTDT

I just saw a Singaporean analyst on Bloomberg agreeing with you about the Aussie dollar. She said over 70% of Australia's exports is commodities related and expects further weakening of the Aussie dollar.

All I want to know is when the heck is the USD heading back to 44 baht and 1.0 Euro!!!

[Crushdepth]

its pathetic

the aud should be supported by the reserve bank

NOW

<deleted> are they doing sitting on their hands

The reserve bank doesn't have enough reserves to defend the Oz dollar against the market for more than about 15 minutes at a time :-) And I think they're more interested in protecting the local economy rather than the well-being of us grimy exchange-dependent expats.

= expect lower interest rates, not higher!

[samuibeachcomber]

for aussie ex pats in thailand receiving their income from interest earnt back home(in banks)things are grim and maybe will get worse.Interest rates to continue to decrease,exchang rate vis a vis thai baht to worsen,not a pretty picture.

Any one have a brain wave as to what to do to to lessen the pain,are there any financial options e.g. take money out of OZ,but where to put it to get a better return.Any advise you guru's out there?

[zorro1]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

[Crushdepth]

Any one have a brain wave as to what to do to to lessen the pain,are there any financial options e.g. take money out of OZ,but where to put it to get a better return.Any advise you guru's out there?

Get a US$ job. But personally I still prefer to invest in Oz - currency aside the returns (cash) are still ok and its stable and sane. But then I have a long term view and plan to go *back* at some stage in the future. I'm not sure there is much to be gained by getting out of Oz at this stage - the AUD probably has a bit more downside in it but it's a bit late now. In the long term it will probably recover so you'd probably just be left wearing a dual exchange loss.

Probably :-)