Aussie Dollar

[Naam]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

BINGO!

[GungaDin]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

BINGO!

I'll stay a renter.

The 50% premium is worth it.

I can move away from noisy / bad neighbours anytime.

Buy property in Thailand, NEVER

Edited October 28, 2008 by GungaDin

[Naam]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

BINGO!

I'll stay a renter. The 50% premium is worth it. I can move away from noisy / bad neighbours anytime. Buy property in Thailand, NEVER

to each his own

[zorro1]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

BINGO!

I'll stay a renter.

The 50% premium is worth it.

I can move away from noisy / bad neighbours anytime.

Buy property in Thailand, NEVER

Looking at your pic you may live in a hut therefore 50% of nothing still nothing

[think_too_mut]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

What capital growth? Where? In Thailand?

Money spent there is burned, rent or own. At that, renters can move around at will.

I got lucky to rent and get more money from interest in the bank for the same amount ownership would have cost me. Got lucky again to buy when A$ was 32B.

And still consider that money burned, good I could afford to walk away from the property - which is, in effect, already happening - keeping the dormant condo for only 2 months use (July and August).

The only upside might be - massive loss of jobs worldwide that may leave me with no new income - then we might go to BKK to live cheaply off my savings and weather the storm until conditions improve. In that case, it's easier to walk into a ready and furnished home with no rent to pay.

I just hope those "security guards" formed by political opponents are not harbingers of militias and civil war.

Renters would have fled by then, leaving nothing behind.

Owners may flee too, like the whites did in South Africa, selling for whatever price they could get.

However, some may stay too, like the whites still in Zimbabwe.

[simcity]

I do not think anyone can say right or wrong.

It is up to the individual to decide what to do, some prefer to rent and invested.

Some will lose doing it, some will be better off.

You can not be sure about capital gain / lost on the property market before you have the sale cash on your hand.

I know some people trying to sell in Pattaya for ages, and look they need to take a big lost.

Some people do not want to think about body corporate problem and maintenance; they prefer to buy Grange Hermitage wine or antic toys.

Everything is up to the individual, like gold, you can afford it, you want a different class asset.. Do so, buy few kilo & stop looking at the ‘ I told you so “ messages

[zorro1]

Its particularly more painful for the rent only brigade. Only a few months back it was never buy in Thai. Well now not only is it 30% more for dead rent money but those who hesitated also lost the ability to buy real estate at previous exchange rates. when the exchange rate catches up again in around a few years the renters would have lost out on capitol growth.

What capital growth? Where? In Thailand?

Money spent there is burned, rent or own. At that, renters can move around at will.

I got lucky to rent and get more money from interest in the bank for the same amount ownership would have cost me. Got lucky again to buy when A$ was 32B.

And still consider that money burned, good I could afford to walk away from the property - which is, in effect, already happening - keeping the dormant condo for only 2 months use (July and August).

The only upside might be - massive loss of jobs worldwide that may leave me with no new income - then we might go to BKK to live cheaply off my savings and weather the storm until conditions improve. In that case, it's easier to walk into a ready and furnished home with no rent to pay.

I just hope those "security guards" formed by political opponents are not harbingers of militias and civil war.

Renters would have fled by then, leaving nothing behind.

Owners may flee too, like the whites did in South Africa, selling for whatever price they could get.

However, some may stay too, like the whites still in Zimbabwe.

Dont tink so

At this rate I could live rent free and save 500,000bht for the next year and then sell for 30% less than I paid and even with 30% negative growth I would be getting my money back

I bought at 32 as well

Edited October 29, 2008 by zorro1

[GungaDin]

Looking at your pic you may live in a hut therefore 50% of nothing still nothing

You know how to hurt. Boo Hoo...

[Boifromoz]

My super's copped a massive beating, they are reporting that people are coming out of retirement to go back to work...all of that doesnt affect me so much, but apparently the baht is largely over-priced.

I guess my advice would be to hold on for either. A) the AUD to rise and/or B)the Baht to fall

I bumped my trip forward when the AUD was at .96 US and it turned out perfect, but my sis is over there now paying heaps more than i did for the same thing..

[maccaroni man]

My super's copped a massive beating, they are reporting that people are coming out of retirement to go back to work...all of that doesnt affect me so much, but apparently the baht is largely over-priced.

I guess my advice would be to hold on for either. A) the AUD to rise and/or B)the Baht to fall

I bumped my trip forward when the AUD was at .96 US and it turned out perfect, but my sis is over there now paying heaps more than i did for the same thing..

My money manager always told me the true value of the Ausi dollar to the green back was 50 hence I have looked for the drop to come for some time.

[samuibeachcomber]

when times get tough you just have to 'wear it'.........luckily in LOS its just t shirt,shorts,and flip flops!Many people will get burnt,some will just hang in there,others will make a fortune............health and happiness are the important things,but its not easy to attain this without some cash.

[midas]

Sorry to tell you this folks but I dont think there is much to look forward

to regarding a stronger Aussie in the short to medium term..................

Sydney Morning Herald today

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below

40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools

demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.

The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents

on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It

reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.

[simcity]

Sorry to tell you this folks but I dont think there is much to look forward

to regarding a stronger Aussie in the short to medium term..................

Sydney Morning Herald today

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below

40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools

demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.

The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents

on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It

reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.

I do not listen to these experts

I have see so many contradiction with them..

[zorro1]

MAY and POSSIBLY in the very first sentence, didn't read past that

[midas]

Sorry to tell you this folks but I dont think there is much to look forward

to regarding a stronger Aussie in the short to medium term..................

Sydney Morning Herald today

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below

40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools

demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.

The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents

on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It

reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.

I do not listen to these experts

I have see so many contradiction with them..

But dont you think 40 US cents is kind of inevitable

if they go ahead with more interest rate cuts as they

said they would? USA today talking about the

possibility of 0% interest rates and why shouldnt

Australia be any different before this crisis has finished ?

[ray08]

We have heard , Analysts say , Gold to hit $2000 , Set to hit 1400 , Oil to hit $ 300 and other useless info ,these guys change there views every day ,to say it will hit 40 to the Usd , is just some goose shooting his mouth of to the pappers ,if he said 55 ,they would not even print it ,

I am 100% cetain that if you look around you will find analysts picking different figures all over the the place ,i wonder how many give advice,and how many actually put up there own savings and follow what they say , if they are correct they would be very very rich individuals ,not working for a company giving opinions

[Livinginexile]

Sorry to tell you this folks but I dont think there is much to look forward

to regarding a stronger Aussie in the short to medium term..................

Sydney Morning Herald today

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below

40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools

demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.

The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents

on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It

reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.

I do not listen to these experts

I have see so many contradiction with them..

But dont you think 40 US cents is kind of inevitable

if they go ahead with more interest rate cuts as they

said they would? USA today talking about the

possibility of 0% interest rates and why shouldnt

Australia be any different before this crisis has finished ?

Gee I hope it does!!

I am an Aussie working O/S for US$.

At 40c that means US$100,000 = AUD250,000

[zorro1]

Sorry to tell you this folks but I dont think there is much to look forward

to regarding a stronger Aussie in the short to medium term..................

Sydney Morning Herald today

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below

40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools

demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.

The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents

on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It

reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.

I do not listen to these experts

I have see so many contradiction with them..

But dont you think 40 US cents is kind of inevitable

if they go ahead with more interest rate cuts as they

said they would? USA today talking about the

possibility of 0% interest rates and why shouldnt

Australia be any different before this crisis has finished ?

Gee I hope it does!!

I am an Aussie working O/S for US$.

At 40c that means US$100,000 = AUD250,000

Good considering we live in the same building its your shout, every time

[simcity]

But dont you think 40 US cents is kind of inevitable

if they go ahead with more interest rate cuts as they

said they would? USA today talking about the

possibility of 0% interest rates and why shouldnt

Australia be any different before this crisis has finished ?

AU dollar at 0.40 to the USA It sounds me very low (article from Chris Zappone)

Commodities still on the ground, BHP / Billiton still mining them

Newspapers want bad news, people want bad news, as Ray said, it is print material, they love the emotions / the panic, sure they must be upset not to see so many jumping from building (finance district) not the usual Pattaya / Bangkok condos

If 0.40 cents to the dollar a Australian wage of 600 dollars that will be a mere US240

Who is going to buy anything from USA, your industry will suffer dearly.

To much negative / emotion on these markets at this time, I just refuse to panic.

My believe is peoples who done they home work before the big raise (approximate) 10 years ago, and who where not stupid to mortgage the house for a new line fees of credit (buying shares or margin ), they will be ok with off course some lost!

One to be angry is the Australian government who obliges 10% of gross wage into super, they should take a high blame on the situation with many new gimmicky positions feeling on by supposed expert fund specialist!

The government should change the rules and give access to funds member to be able to take the cash and paid for properties mortgage.

you own superfund can be made, but that is not for Mr. everyone. Off course part of the house then need to be regulated as a non cash possibility until retirement!

Diverse portfolio, low ration debts / equity, after the bad apple been put aside, better time will come back.

The day where you will see a really big disaster, it will be after a super volcano and that will be catastrophic with a melt down of the society.

I pass the 89–91 recessions they have a 19%+ interest rates at this time 'that was hard to service'

I believe too may people has been greedy with margin and line fees of credit, and bad advice from the experts.

So many experts so sure of themselves & arrogant, getting you unserviceable mortgage , but you care they got the commission & they are still there telling what to do! Perhaps you will meet them on cattle class ( presume they travel this way now )

Now he need people like me, getting back slowly on the stock wagon (perhaps with some lost at first)

Sorry if some of you have some hard time read me, live here / business in Australia but I am a frog & it is 1 am!

[Nignoy]

I know of someone reconsidering their travel plans to LOS because of the rates.

You think you got problems, poor old me with penions coming in 3 different currencies all this turmoil with the exchange rates and centrelink still taking 49cents on the dollar no matter whether I,mhere in Qld, Los or Malaysia

[GungaDin]

I know of someone reconsidering their travel plans to LOS because of the rates.

You think you got problems, poor old me with penions coming in 3 different currencies all this turmoil with the exchange rates and centrelink still taking 49cents on the dollar no matter whether I,mhere in Qld, Los or Malaysia

Nignoy, check your PMs, you dozey old bugger.

[LaoPo]

I didn't wan to start yet another thread about the economy, this time about Australia, so that's why I post the article here, expecting you Ozzies would have a look if there's a new post about the Aussie Dollar.....sorry, not very good news I'm afraid:

Australia Faces First Recession Since 1990 as Commodities Drop

By Jacob Greber

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's economy, which cruised through the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the dot-com bust, is facing the prospect of its first recession in almost two decades.

Waning global demand for commodities threatens to staunch a five-year flood of export earnings that helped boost Australian incomes by the most in more than 30 years. Without shipments overseas, the economy would have contracted in the second quarter.

China's performance may be the key to whether the economy shrinks: A slowdown in Australia's fastest growing export market would hurt shipments of iron ore, coal, copper and cotton. Treasurer Wayne Swan said this week Australia may be hit harder than expected as the global slowdown spreads to the emerging markets that are among the nation's main trading partners.

``It'll be no mean feat for Australia to stay out of a recession,'' said Rory Robertson, an economist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Sydney. ``Consumers and business are hunkering down across the world, almost as we speak, shocked to the core by the financial dislocation.''

Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens responded to the threat with the most aggressive round of interest-rate cuts since a recession in 1991, slashing the benchmark rate by 2 percentage points to 5.25 percent in nine weeks.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd plans to pump A$10.4 billion ($7.1 billion) into the pockets of pensioners, first-home buyers and families to boost spending.

Global Recession

The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 2.2 percent next year, a level it has called the ``equivalent to a global recession.'' The U.S., Japan and the euro region will all contract, the IMF predicts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday cut its forecast for economic growth in 2008 to 1.5 percent from the 2 percent it predicted in August.

The slide in global growth ``will be more dramatic than many had thought previously,'' Treasurer Swan said in comments e-mailed to Bloomberg News on Nov. 9.

While the government and central bank don't forecast a recession, Australia is vulnerable. Without the contribution from exports, the economy would have contracted 0.2 percent in the second quarter instead of expanding 0.3 percent.

The drop in global demand has already hurt commodities. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB futures index for prices of 19 raw materials, including oil and metals, tumbled 46 percent since hitting a record on July 2.

The declines could get worse should China's economy weaken further.

Australia's Risk

``If China stops being fine, then Australia runs the risk of being buggered,'' said Chris Richardson, head of Canberra-based research company Access Economics. ``Is there a risk that China won't be fine? You bet there is.''

China this week pledged a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to prop up growth. Richardson predicts China will expand 7.4 percent in 2009, the weakest pace since 1990. The economy grew 11.9 percent in 2007.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest iron ore exporter, said yesterday it will cut output at its mines in Western Australia by 10 percent.

Waning commodity prices are forcing miners such as Oz Minerals Ltd., the world's second-biggest zinc producer, and Minara Resources Ltd. to cut jobs. They are also shelving spending on investment, which accounts for about a quarter of gross domestic product, up by about half since the start of the decade, according to Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney.

`Ripple Effects'

``All the economy's eggs are in the mining basket,'' said Walters. ``The ripple effects through the economy for the next two years will be massive.''

Walters predicts GDP will contract in the six months through March, trimming 2009 growth to 0.7 percent. Unemployment will more than double to 9 percent, he said.

A drop in shipments is also bad news for Australia's indebted consumers. The mining boom fueled a 30 percent surge in household incomes in the past five years, more than any other developed economy, according to the central bank.

Many households used the cash to take on debt, which almost doubled since 1999 to around 160 percent of incomes, a higher ratio than the U.S. and U.K., according to Shane Oliver, senior economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. The median national house price soared about 140 percent in the same period.

``Australian households are very vulnerable, which partly explains why the central bank has been so aggressive'' lowering rates, Oliver said.

Borrowing Costs

The central bank may need to cut borrowing costs below 3 percent next year to avoid the kind of ``debt-deflation spiral that now seems to be under way in the U.S. and U.K.,'' he said.

House prices fell 1.8 percent in the third quarter, home- loan approvals slid in September for an eighth month and retail sales slumped the most in more than three years last month.

``The average person in the street senses something is wrong,'' said Macquarie's Robertson. ``Households and businesses are pulling in their horns. Whatever people were planning two or three months ago, much of it has been put on hold.''

-Bloomberg

LaoPo

[Hairy]

``If China stops being fine, then Australia runs the risk of being buggered,'' said Chris Richardson, head of Canberra-based research company Access Economics.

You've *got* to love the honesty of Aussie financial analysts!

[VegasVic]

``If China stops being fine, then Australia runs the risk of being buggered,'' said Chris Richardson, head of Canberra-based research company Access Economics.

You've *got* to love the honesty of Aussie financial analysts!

I like an analyst that has the guts to call it the way it is, not too mention the "down home" verbage

[BlackJack]

no one saw this coming and no one knows where its going

its all speculation

but the way people are bunkering down - this is the road to recession.

You need to spend spend spend - like the USA - run up huge trillion dollar debts and then the currency will be strong.

Come on OZE come on come on

Come on OZE come on

SPEND live in debt, borrow beyond your wildest dreams - live the American dream

The OZ Government has lowered interest rates so you can spend more - so - just do it.

[chiangmaibruce]

OK guys, next week there is a meeting on tuesday to review australian interest rates and a meeting the following day to review Thai interest rates. Both are likely to approve rate cuts (but by an unkown amount). Rate cuts tend to result in downward pressure on the relevant currency.

Assuming this occurs, would anyone care to speculate where we might be in a week's time, ie. whether both currencies will fall by a similar amount or if the baht will fall further than the AUD leading to a brief respite for us who need to change AUD to baht?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

OK guys, next week there is a meeting on tuesday to review australian interest rates and a meeting the following day to review Thai interest rates. Both are likely to approve rate cuts (but by an unkown amount). Rate cuts tend to result in downward pressure on the relevant currency.

Assuming this occurs, would anyone care to speculate where we might be in a week's time, ie. whether both currencies will fall by a similar amount or if the baht will fall further than the AUD leading to a brief respite for us who need to change AUD to baht?

The BOT has been spending like crazy to keep the Baht up, as long as they pour money into it they can slow the fall. Once they quit supporting the baht watch it fall.

[cclub75]

The BOT has been spending like crazy to keep the Baht up, as long as they pour money into it they can slow the fall. Once they quit supporting the baht watch it fall.

It doesn't seem to be true.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/11/26...rency-reserves/

The reserves in foreign currency are not "melting".

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...lReserves.aspx#

We have a decrease, but slow.

Edited November 28, 2008 by cclub75

[neverdie]

LivinginexileGee I hope it does!!

I am an Aussie working O/S for US$.

At 40c that means US$100,000 = AUD250,000

Hey Knobjockey......don't get too confident on banking on ur $100,000 USD being $250,000 AUSSIE.....You might find that yank company of yours will go toes up like many yankee mobs will in the next 12 months.....then you will have a wage of sweet f#ck all and thats a big fat 0, no matter what currency you convert too.

[midas]

OK guys, next week there is a meeting on tuesday to review australian interest rates and a meeting the following day to review Thai interest rates. Both are likely to approve rate cuts (but by an unkown amount). Rate cuts tend to result in downward pressure on the relevant currency.

Assuming this occurs, would anyone care to speculate where we might be in a week's time, ie. whether both currencies will fall by a similar amount or if the baht will fall further than the AUD leading to a brief respite for us who need to change AUD to baht?

The BOT has been spending like crazy to keep the Baht up, as long as they pour money into it they can slow the fall. Once they quit supporting the baht watch it fall.

But from my interpretation of things Thailand is in surplus whereas Australia

the so heavily in debt I was actually shocked to read the figures. It comes in at number

4 after America, England, and Spain . Surely this also has a bearing on the value of the currency?