Former Minister Openly Calling For Military Coup.

[h90]

PM Somchai abruptly cancels trips to neighbouring countries

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat abruptly cancelled all his foreign trips to neighboring countries Laos, Cambodia and Burma.

It is still unclear why why he scrapped the trips which have planned for weeks since he took office.

The Nation

Maybe to prevent the army for stating a coup?

[^_^]

PM Somchai abruptly cancels trips to neighbouring countries

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat abruptly cancelled all his foreign trips to neighboring countries Laos, Cambodia and Burma.

It is still unclear why why he scrapped the trips which have planned for weeks since he took office.

The Nation

Maybe to prevent the army for stating a coup?

Based on Anupong's no action-comment reaction to the clash at parliament, now further with what Chavalit saying that a coup could be the solution, I think Takky-Somchai may be going for a coup; a coup which takes their side

[citizen33]

Based on Anupong's no action-comment reaction to the clash at parliament, now further with what Chavalit saying that a coup could be the solution, I think Takky-Somchai may be going for a coup; a coup which takes their side

A coup against the authority above the government???

[TAWP]

He mean a 'preventive counter-coup'. To make sure no other group gets the upper hand by moving first.

It would also make sure that they can alter the constitution to give immunity to all the criminals they want and no-one could do anything about it. And the 'prodigal son' would return...

If they are stupid enough to step even further...there would be a huge rift in the armed forces opening up and we would see a civil war.

Time will tell.

[Gravelrash]

Just because the only recent coup was bloodless, does not mean the next one will be the same. Generals do not attend peace-MAKING schools.

Finally a considered comment. Blondie is right, because the last one was bloodless doesn't mean the next will be. Many here seem to suffer from ADD, the last coup was not a roaring success.

So a choice of the corrupt PPP, the fascist PAD, the no-policy Democrats or the Army. Tough times ahead, I hope a better idea emerges.

[^_^]

He mean a 'preventive counter-coup'. To make sure no other group gets the upper hand by moving first.

It would also make sure that they can alter the constitution to give immunity to all the criminals they want and no-one could do anything about it. And the 'prodigal son' would return...

If they are stupid enough to step even further...there would be a huge rift in the armed forces opening up and we would see a civil war.

Time will tell.

TAWP,

Thanks for clarifying my post

[animatic]

From Bkk. Post today.

Former deputy prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who resigned from the cabinet for ordering police attacks on PAD demonstrations on Tuesday, now says a military-led coup d'etat is the only way to resolve the political strife. EXCLUSIVE By Wassana Nanuam

In an exclusive interview with the Bangkok Post on Thursday, Gen Chavalit said the answer lies with army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda, who has repeatedly ruled out a coup.

Gen Chavalit said Gen Anupong should immediately return power after staging a coup to allow an interim government to be installed and tackle the political turmoil.

Former minister openly calling for the military to step in.

Yes! They didn't listen to me... take them out.

Well he'll have plenty of new chances in the

Thaksin government #3 ... NOT!

It's really weird when the person speaking the most common sense IS the Army general.

And even if he might be the best least threatening, most thoughful and most approachable choice as a new PM,

He is reusing to stage a coup....

It's the Thailand Twilight Zone

[steveromagnino]

Chavalit is a renowned Thaksin ally, and would not speak out without approval from above. he is also identified as one of the least aligned to that institution by guys like McCargo so his comment about resolution only coming from 3 directions; military, political or the palace is deliberately pointed at encouraging something to occur.

Fortunately, many people understand already that the guy is a senile old twit, and having given his colleagues back in 1997 mega payouts as they short sold the baht as he bankrupted the country, this time his tactics may not work nearly as well.

Talk in at least one TV network right now is that being that both the PM and until recently deputy PM were put in power out of London and that nothing they do is without directions, that this is a deliberate attempt to destablise enough to ensure that the request to hang in UK and granted asylum rather than return sticks. After all...either the country is on the verge of a civil war, so requests for asylum carry more weight than a government running smoothly where you have your own brother in law in charge....or you have another coup in which case for sure he can get asylum.

Since we know that all major PPP decisions come from London, I am sure that between banging young starlets and flogging footie teams, the hope is probably that something monumental changes in Thailand and thus he hits the jackpot and all can be forgiven....so he needs the time of hanging around without a verdict long enough until this occurs. Buying time is the new strategy here, since a court decision which cannot be appealed and a constitution that is ironclad and supported by most of the population will leave few options to redeem himself.

[annamaria4711]

Sondhi can stop the violence at any time. Just tell his flock to go home and enjoy their lives!

hear hear

[animatic]

Sondhi can stop the violence at any time. Just tell his flock to go home and enjoy their lives!

hear hear

You REALLY think it's just that simple... yegawds.

[dotcom]

Yes Big Jiew. The man who sucessfully began the Asian Crisis of 1997 bankrupting Thailand in the process.

Wasn't he Supreme Commander of the Navy before he entered political life?

He won't be the first hog at the trough after the next coup. Currenetly serving Army commanders will be.

I personally feel Chavalit has caused enough harm & should retire to Buriram or wherever.

Edited October 10, 2008 by dotcom

[dotcom]

btw. Shouldn't we be referring to him as "Former Prime Minister".

Let's not underestimate his ability to mess things up.

Yes Toxic recycled him just like everyone else except the Democrats.

Edited October 10, 2008 by dotcom

[h90]

Yes Big Jiew. The man who sucessfully began the Asian Crisis of 1997 bankrupting Thailand in the process.

Wasn't he Supreme Commander of the Navy before he entered political life?

He won't be the first hog at the trough after the next coup. Currenetly serving Army commanders will be.

I personally feel Chavalit has caused enough harm & should retire to Buriram or wherever.

But he tries to present himself to be the only one who can talk with both sides.

Well Anupong tries the same.....

[cmsally]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

[h90]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

Anupong most probably received money for not doing anything.

But not sure if that means much, because if he received the money already, he might not need to be "honest".

[cmsally]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

Anupong most probably received money for not doing anything.

But not sure if that means much, because if he received the money already, he might not need to be "honest".

I think you misunderstand what I have said. The money (or not) does not factor into it . The man may have been given the position because it was expedient; in which case he holds that position as a figurehead, the decisions are not his to make. Whether he is "honest" or not is beside the point , he is merely sitting on the chair because it is convenient for others for him to sit on that chair. They (whoever they may be) are more powerful than him.

[hammered]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

While talking of retired generals of various classes we shouldnt overlook the most powerful ex-general of all who has far more influence than anyone in classes 5 (Sunthorn, Suchinda, Issarapong, Boonchu, Kaset) or 7 (Chamlong, Panlop, Manoon, Sanan).

Chulachomklao Class five (1958), the people of 1992 infamy, are pretty much seen as an illiberal group and have been described as the most corrupt and power hungry military group ever. They as a whole split from the maybe more liberal Chavalit in the early 1990's. They also didnt trust his political ambitions and games and saw him as a traitor to their class! Quite how much power this still discredited class actually have is open to question. They were however strong supporters of Prem's government and so may through this avenue have some residual power.

Chulachomklao Class seven (generally The Young Turks) was generally seen as more liberal as they backed the people in 1992 against class 5 and earlier urged more reforms. They have also seen their power go up and down over ther years and have been involved in a number of failed actions but they have avoided, to date, being as discredited as class 5 even though they opposed and tried to launch coups against the Prem government. Quite how much power they currently have in the military is also moot although they have more recent retirees so it may be more.

Anupong, who of course didnt have a meeting wth anyone this week , is in the bitterly divided class ten, of which Thaksin is a member too, which has 3 factions: Thaksin supporters, Thaksin enemies and politcally quiet. This is one reason why Anupong is probably forced to rely on others. A divided class is not a good support base. Quite who is the most powerful serving military officer may not be as obvious as who is the most powerful retired military officer but whoever it is will be loyal to those needed to be loyal to.

Saprang technically came from class 18 of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy and Surayud from class 12.

It is worth imho taking a read of a certain book on the period around the early 90's as there are a few interesting parallels. I have also been reading some stuff about 1997 and a proposed coup against themselves which is also interesting in light of recent events.

If the military do get involved I have little doubt that both the PAD leadership and the PPP will suffer. Right now as politicians stock is at its lowest ebb ever, the police already disliked become further discredited, the opposition just looks impotent and the PAD seem to get crazier the stock of the military is rising again. I seriously doubt that this is some complete accident. If they need to "save the country" at some point this rise in their stock will make them a lot more acceptable especially after ruling out coups left right and center. They are repositioning as the central neutral body.

All imho

[cmsally]

With Somchai cancelling his trips and the violence on the streets, it is probably just a logical follow on, but there are lots of rumours that a coup was planned for a few days ago but never came to fruition.

Quite frankly the military can try and hide behind this facade as long as they like but it is painfully obvious what goes on. The military just don't want to lose their grip on the country. As long as this country is structured as it is at present then this will be what will happen again and again. They want to control their grip on politics and this is how they do it. It is just that the perceived threat to national security changes shape and position over time.

You can cheer on each side as much as much as you like, but best not to be too deluded into thinking that you are supporting the road to democracy or those with clean hands and pure minds. Because really in doing this you are just a convenient tool of those with real interests at stake. Don't for a moment think that your political conscience (or the odd finger or leg) is of any consequence to them. Politics like anywhere is a dog eat dog battle and here it gets taken to extremes.

[hammered]

With Somchai cancelling his trips and the violence on the streets, it is probably just a logical follow on, but there are lots of rumours that a coup was planned for a few days ago but never came to fruition.

Quite frankly the military can try and hide behind this facade as long as they like but it is painfully obvious what goes on. The military just don't want to lose their grip on the country. As long as this country is structured as it is at present then this will be what will happen again and again. They want to control their grip on politics and this is how they do it. It is just that the perceived threat to national security changes shape and position over time.

You can cheer on each side as much as much as you like, but best not to be too deluded into thinking that you are supporting the road to democracy or those with clean hands and pure minds. Because really in doing this you are just a convenient tool of those with real interests at stake. Don't for a moment think that your political conscience (or the odd finger or leg) is of any consequence to them. Politics like anywhere is a dog eat dog battle and here it gets taken to extremes.

The UDD/DAAD are having a large meeting in Muang Thong Thani as I write. How they react will also set the tone, but I doubt mob on mob violence will be allowed to go on for long. I hope they dont plan on "defending" the police HQ on Monday or something.

I dont doubt there is a coup plan or even several. It does look like those who want to wait or try another way currently hold sway. Of course it is a game and I expect the meme of PPP and their gangs and PAD both being extremist lunatic organizations that dont care about country etc to continue and the military to continue to position themselves to save the country. It is working well right now. There are three sides in this but only two are visible and when the third enters the fray they will likely do so to break both the others. The fact that one side is probably just their sacrifical irregular forces is besides the point. They need sacrifices from that side to make the taking out of their enemies seem more aceptable.

You are right about things going to extremes though and I wouldnt rule PPP out altogether at this point as their leader has a huge incentive to keep fighting

[cmsally]

On a more humorous note, it is actually like seeing your great aunt Edna (heiress to multiple fortunes and lifetime shrewd investor, no husband, no children) die intestate.

Just imagine the ensuing battle after her funeral.

Something along the lines of what we are seeing now I would imagine.

[animatic]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

While talking of retired generals of various classes we shouldnt overlook the most powerful ex-general of all who has far more influence than anyone in classes 5 (Sunthorn, Suchinda, Issarapong, Boonchu, Kaset) or 7 (Chamlong, Panlop, Manoon, Sanan).

Chulachomklao Class five (1958), the people of 1992 infamy, are pretty much seen as an illiberal group and have been described as the most corrupt and power hungry military group ever. They as a whole split from the maybe more liberal Chavalit in the early 1990's. They also didnt trust his political ambitions and games and saw him as a traitor to their class! Quite how much power this still discredited class actually have is open to question. They were however strong supporters of Prem's government and so may through this avenue have some residual power.

Chulachomklao Class seven (generally The Young Turks) was generally seen as more liberal as they backed the people in 1992 against class 5 and earlier urged more reforms. They have also seen their power go up and down over ther years and have been involved in a number of failed actions but they have avoided, to date, being as discredited as class 5 even though they opposed and tried to launch coups against the Prem government. Quite how much power they currently have in the military is also moot although they have more recent retirees so it may be more.

Anupong, who of course didnt have a meeting wth anyone this week , is in the bitterly divided class ten, of which Thaksin is a member too, which has 3 factions: Thaksin supporters, Thaksin enemies and politcally quiet. This is one reason why Anupong is probably forced to rely on others. A divided class is not a good support base. Quite who is the most powerful serving military officer may not be as obvious as who is the most powerful retired military officer but whoever it is will be loyal to those needed to be loyal to.

Saprang technically came from class 18 of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy and Surayud from class 12.

It is worth imho taking a read of a certain book on the period around the early 90's as there are a few interesting parallels. I have also been reading some stuff about 1997 and a proposed coup against themselves which is also interesting in light of recent events.

If the military do get involved I have little doubt that both the PAD leadership and the PPP will suffer. Right now as politicians stock is at its lowest ebb ever, the police already disliked become further discredited, the opposition just looks impotent and the PAD seem to get crazier the stock of the military is rising again. I seriously doubt that this is some complete accident. If they need to "save the country" at some point this rise in their stock will make them a lot more acceptable especially after ruling out coups left right and center. They are repositioning as the central neutral body.

All imho

Thak you for some informative opinions.

I bit of this I recall from other sources,

but this is good to see in one place.

One thing I have forgotten; what class was Gen. Prem?

[hansnl]

I really think that perhaps it is time for the military to stop the violence and clear the PAD themselves from Government House. Ever since the PAD started dominating the Thai political scene the country has been going down hill. Somchai has no balls or ability to do that.

Oh really?

I had a slight impression that the country was going downhill far before the PAD stepped in.

This and the latter government were only busy trying to change the constitution for opening up the way..........

A people gets the government they deserve.

A government gets the opposition they deserve.

[khunjamespittman]

I really think that perhaps it is time for the military to stop the violence and clear the PAD themselves from Government House. Ever since the PAD started dominating the Thai political scene the country has been going down hill. Somchai has no balls or ability to do that.

Oh really?

I had a slight impression that the country was going downhill far before the PAD stepped in.

This and the latter government were only busy trying to change the constitution for opening up the way..........

A people gets the government they deserve.

A government gets the opposition they deserve.

It appears that some of the leaders of Thailand are willing to sacrifice the freedom of the masses of Thailand people in exchange for a high position including the trappings of wealth and power that they hope would fall on them with a coup.

Democracy empowers all the people and a coup places the power with a few privileged people. Forget all the discussion of class and education being Thai culture and envision another Myanmar. Thailand has made great strides (financially and world respect) during its brief periods when Democracy was allowed to flourish.

I am sad that it appears that some in Thailand seem to be willing to sacrifice the country and keep the masses in a lower class to insure their perceived superiority.

[animatic]

I really think that perhaps it is time for the military to stop the violence and clear the PAD themselves from Government House. Ever since the PAD started dominating the Thai political scene the country has been going down hill. Somchai has no balls or ability to do that.

Oh really?

I had a slight impression that the country was going downhill far before the PAD stepped in.

This and the latter government were only busy trying to change the constitution for opening up the way..........

A people gets the government they deserve.

A government gets the opposition they deserve.

It appears that some of the leaders of Thailand are willing to sacrifice the freedom of the masses of Thailand people in exchange for a high position including the trappings of wealth and power that they hope would fall on them with a coup.

Democracy empowers all the people and a coup places the power with a few privileged people. Forget all the discussion of class and education being Thai culture and envision another Myanmar. Thailand has made great strides (financially and world respect) during its brief periods when Democracy was allowed to flourish.

I am sad that it appears that some in Thailand seem to be willing to sacrifice the country and keep the masses in a lower class to insure their perceived superiority.

Except what you describe is already the case a few elites control the country.

One bunch actually because of something more or less resembling a poll,

but effectively just a political machine control mechanism.

Like from the movie Gangs of New York, which this whole scenario so oddly resembles.

There is too much money to be made by too many

for any kind of Myanmar situation to transpire.

There also isn't the mental illness derived army culture in the same mad fashion.

I am more worried about loss of general well being, than decent in to the 7th ring of hel_l.

When was this time when "democracy was allowed to flourish"?

It is a post 19th century feudalist society grappling

with one foot in the 19th and one toe in the 21st.

No wonder the're blinking confused!

Edited October 11, 2008 by animatic

[hammered]

If the military is going to be involved it seems we have something along the lines of class 5 & class 7. The latter being Chamlong, Panlop, Saprang et al. The former being Chavalit, Suchinda, Surayud et al and I think also the Bunnag that came out as saying he sold his house in order to clear PAD off the streets (not sure on that though).

So we have the situation of maybe using the PAD as an instrument to clear PPP off the scene but not being reliable enough to figure in any after the show scenario. Class 7 have a slightly shaky history when it comes down to the nitty gritty of allegiance so will not be trusted to follow through. The lines aren't exactly clear but if this is the case you have a point when PAD are not required any more and class 5 will see to it that they are dealt with.

There is going to be an overlap period when class 5 is dealing with the PAD and PPP maybe still have enough power to jump in and take the reins. Meanwhile the Democrats stand on the sidelines hoping to catch the crumbs that are thrown in their direction.

Anupong is neither of these 2 classes so maybe does not wield enough power to do anything. There is possibly the scenario that in reality he is not in charge of what happens.

While talking of retired generals of various classes we shouldnt overlook the most powerful ex-general of all who has far more influence than anyone in classes 5 (Sunthorn, Suchinda, Issarapong, Boonchu, Kaset) or 7 (Chamlong, Panlop, Manoon, Sanan).

Chulachomklao Class five (1958), the people of 1992 infamy, are pretty much seen as an illiberal group and have been described as the most corrupt and power hungry military group ever. They as a whole split from the maybe more liberal Chavalit in the early 1990's. They also didnt trust his political ambitions and games and saw him as a traitor to their class! Quite how much power this still discredited class actually have is open to question. They were however strong supporters of Prem's government and so may through this avenue have some residual power.

Chulachomklao Class seven (generally The Young Turks) was generally seen as more liberal as they backed the people in 1992 against class 5 and earlier urged more reforms. They have also seen their power go up and down over ther years and have been involved in a number of failed actions but they have avoided, to date, being as discredited as class 5 even though they opposed and tried to launch coups against the Prem government. Quite how much power they currently have in the military is also moot although they have more recent retirees so it may be more.

Anupong, who of course didnt have a meeting wth anyone this week , is in the bitterly divided class ten, of which Thaksin is a member too, which has 3 factions: Thaksin supporters, Thaksin enemies and politcally quiet. This is one reason why Anupong is probably forced to rely on others. A divided class is not a good support base. Quite who is the most powerful serving military officer may not be as obvious as who is the most powerful retired military officer but whoever it is will be loyal to those needed to be loyal to.

Saprang technically came from class 18 of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy and Surayud from class 12.

It is worth imho taking a read of a certain book on the period around the early 90's as there are a few interesting parallels. I have also been reading some stuff about 1997 and a proposed coup against themselves which is also interesting in light of recent events.

If the military do get involved I have little doubt that both the PAD leadership and the PPP will suffer. Right now as politicians stock is at its lowest ebb ever, the police already disliked become further discredited, the opposition just looks impotent and the PAD seem to get crazier the stock of the military is rising again. I seriously doubt that this is some complete accident. If they need to "save the country" at some point this rise in their stock will make them a lot more acceptable especially after ruling out coups left right and center. They are repositioning as the central neutral body.

All imho

Thak you for some informative opinions.

I bit of this I recall from other sources,

but this is good to see in one place.

One thing I have forgotten; what class was Gen. Prem?

Gen Prem was class nine. An old class nine not the one Montri hailed from

[WAERTH]

Just because the only recent coup was bloodless, does not mean the next one will be the same. Generals do not attend peace-MAKING schools.

Finally a considered comment. Blondie is right, because the last one was bloodless doesn't mean the next will be. Many here seem to suffer from ADD, the last coup was not a roaring success.

So a choice of the corrupt PPP, the fascist PAD, the no-policy Democrats or the Army. Tough times ahead, I hope a better idea emerges.

Than I would choose no-policy democrats! at least they wouldn't bring the country down any further

[Thai at Heart]

Just because the only recent coup was bloodless, does not mean the next one will be the same. Generals do not attend peace-MAKING schools.

Finally a considered comment. Blondie is right, because the last one was bloodless doesn't mean the next will be. Many here seem to suffer from ADD, the last coup was not a roaring success.

So a choice of the corrupt PPP, the fascist PAD, the no-policy Democrats or the Army. Tough times ahead, I hope a better idea emerges.

Than I would choose no-policy democrats! at least they wouldn't bring the country down any further

That would be what they are hoping opportunistically for most people to think

Edited October 12, 2008 by Thai at Heart

[Plus]

There's no doubt that PAD went trhough a terrifying week, they'd take any help they can, even if comes from the military. Unfruntately Anupong doesn't feel like he can "win", he can certainly remove PPP government but he can't hold the country after that.

Anupong's best strategy is to sit and wait, and if violence reaches the boiling point, he can simply separate the two sides without taking direct control.

Right now everyone knows what should be done - House dissolution. The only problem is that PPP is not listening, they are quite big to tough it out for a while on their own, they just need to buy time to prepare themselves for the next elections, they need money and people in the right places. Once the electoral machine is ready, the house will be dissolved.

There are other variables, too - should they run as PPP or should they all switch to Pua Thai? Running on PPP ticket could be suicidal, building up Pua Thai brand is not so easy, too. They have literally run out of front people. Last year it was Thaksin's name that carried them, this year they can't even find an acceptable party leader.

Anyway, having new elections under the same rules and with the same faces is not going to solve anything. Perhaps the best solution is to have an interim government on a tight schedule specifically tasked with political reform (hate to use task as a verb, btw). Consitutionally it is possible, I believe, if there's strong leadership somewhere among the MP ranks, but we don't see anyone, sadly. The "good coup" might oversee the transition period, but I don't see anyone in the military ready for it either - it shouldn't look like a power grab and be acceptable both to PAD and PPP, and PPP is the party that stands most to lose from political reform, not to mention Thaksin's going to be completely sidelined.

That leaves us with elections scheduled for early next year. It should reduce the temperature for a while, and if Dems manage to win, it could lead to political reform, too.

The reform should allow all interested parties an opportunity to apply themselves. The current MPs, however despicable they are, should be guaranteed a place in the new system, too, and so are their Bangkok handlers. And there must be influx of new blood along the "new politics" line, or it will all be in vain.

[Thai at Heart]

There's no doubt that PAD went trhough a terrifying week, they'd take any help they can, even if comes from the military. Unfruntately Anupong doesn't feel like he can "win", he can certainly remove PPP government but he can't hold the country after that.

Anupong's best strategy is to sit and wait, and if violence reaches the boiling point, he can simply separate the two sides without taking direct control.

This maybe true, but in light of his "the army has learnt it's lesson" statement, it would appear that the negative response the came with the last coup has made them feel that they cannot spin a coup internationally to show that it is any way "good". Then considering the lack of public statements from the very highest echelons of society, it could be construed that they don't want to leave a legacy of condoning army coups.

If the violence becomes absolutely extreme, a coup may be the only true option. However, in light of the image they left with the last one and the writing of a new constitution that is flawed maybe they believe finally that it is not the job of armies to run the govt. If they did it, in the "interim" period, the courts would have to do an extremely impartial job of prosecuting all wrong doers even-handedly or risk dividing the country even more. Could this be done? I doubt it.

Edited October 12, 2008 by Thai at Heart

[LindsayBKK]

Thailand lacks 1 main ingredient and thats LEADERSHIP.

Nobody in this country knows how to show the people the way to improve their lives.

Nor talks about how to earn more more legally.

Nor How to get off minimum wage.

Everybody would work harder if they knew they would get a xmas bonus at the end of the year.

Give people incentive! Where is the incentive in this country?

I think this Country needs a leader like a celebrity, I have a few names

Palapon (thats me & Palapon @ Sydney)

Bird Thongchai

The Thais only seem to be interested in Music & Thai Drama so let's give it a try.

What could be worse than another 10 years of the same old Thai Politics? Coup yes Please.