Can You Really Learn To Predict Forex Movements To Any Degree...

[uptou]

Hello,today i was browsing the net & came across this site: http://www.discusseconomics.com/foreign-ex...re-they-happen/ ,which i found kind of interesting,but obviously dont like to believe everything i read as there seems to be "experts" on investing everywhere,alot of whom are trying to sell something.

I believe the forex market is the biggest & most liquid,but have also noticed that quite a few investors on here seem to laugh when anybody mentions fx trading (or possibly the inexperienced op looking to give it a try).

I can understand that encouraging gambling (which i'm sure for alot of people fx trading is given their lack of knowledge) is irresponsible,but what are the real facts about forex trading?

So as far as the average joe is concerned is it really possible to learn to predict currency movements to any degree worth using?

[keestha]

There have been a lot of threads on here about forex trading. You might get replies from people who claim that they are making money playing forex.

What might be a good idea......use the search function, and try to contact people who claimed a few years ago to make money with forex. Ask them if they are still in the forex trade, and if they are still winning.

[pkrv]

No - Reuters who at the time controlled 50% of the entire market with EBS (Electronic Broking Services the competitor the other 50%) 2,100billion (USD) per day transacted - As I understand it there were attempts made –resulting in failure.

[PCA]

No - Reuters who at the time controlled 50% of the entire market with EBS (Electronic Broking Services the competitor the other 50%) 2,100billion (USD) per day transacted - As I understand it there were attempts made –resulting in failure.

????

to OP:

of course it is possible to predict currency moves. As I was always against Forex and the until recently countless bucketshops granting trading access in order to ripp off their clients mainly, there are now stricter regulations applied and some brokers are offering quite ok services.

[PhilHarries]

So as far as the average joe is concerned is it really possible to learn to predict currency movements to any degree worth using?

For the average joe soap I'd say no. I think there are too many variables to learn that unless you have done your education and spent your life gearing up for the role there is no way you could just pick it up as you go along (unless you want to lose your shirt).

One way to find out is to play the game without shelling out any real money. Then you might find you have an eye for it. Alternatively you might get lucky, based on pure beginners luck, with your virtual trading only to lose everything once you introduce real funds into the game.

It is, as you say, a gamble and to earn a reasonable amount you have to invest significantly more exposing yourself to a greater degree of risk.

Unfortunately there is, for the majority of us, no alternative to working for a living.

[jjnr]

I'm a novice having only traded forex for one year. I went backwards for 8 months until I was able to develop a trading plan and stick to it. Since then my profit has gone up consistently and dramatically. It's too early to say whether I am just enjoying a lucky run or not and really need to see how I hold up in another year under a variety of market conditions to see if the effort has been successful. That being said I hope it provides some encouragement to the OP. The only way to find out is to set up a practice account or put in a small amount that you can afford to lose and give it your best shot and see where you stand at the end of twelve months. From my own experience I can say it is time consuming and requires a lot of discipline and effort.

[billaaa777]

I trade Forex. I lost my as s until I took a mentoring course after that it has been all profits. It is really not that hard. A currency can only go two ways, up or down. After you have your trend based software and a signals based software working like they taught me in the mentoring class you are only making high quality trades. I found all the information at the site below. Since I found this site I have been rolling in it. Forex Trading Reviews

I hope this helps. If you think about it. A currency can only go up or down. And if it is already trending in one direction, why fight the trend, just jump in and enjoy the ride. That's what I was taught and it has worked really well. Then I have a signal based software that sends me a warning when the trend is ending and I get out. Then I wait for the trend software to detect another trending currency and I jump in. Easiest dam money I ever made. Not so HARD!

[Misty]

Hello,today i was browsing the net & came across this site: http://www.discusseconomics.com/foreign-ex...re-they-happen/ ,which i found kind of interesting,but obviously dont like to believe everything i read as there seems to be "experts" on investing everywhere,alot of whom are trying to sell something.

I believe the forex market is the biggest & most liquid,but have also noticed that quite a few investors on here seem to laugh when anybody mentions fx trading (or possibly the inexperienced op looking to give it a try).

I can understand that encouraging gambling (which i'm sure for alot of people fx trading is given their lack of knowledge) is irresponsible,but what are the real facts about forex trading?

So as far as the average joe is concerned is it really possible to learn to predict currency movements to any degree worth using?

Book you may wish to read: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From Amazon Book Review: "...In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill...."

[billaaa777]

Book you may wish to read: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From Amazon Book Review: "...In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill...."

I prefer to believe the glass is half full, from you remark it is easy to tell you on the other hand always believe the glass is half empty.

I believe that the time and money I spent educated myself on this subject has had an affect on my level of success. You on the other believe that even if you have success, it is not because of hard work and dedication, but because of luck. There was a famous individual that once said, "Luck is 99% perspiration and 1% dedication." Or something like that.

I am willing to take risk if there are rewards that coincide or exceed those risks. You on the other hand, never take risk, because you believe even if you do succeed monetarily, you will surly fail in the long run. I am so glad my attitude towards life is completely different than yours. I feel sorry for you feeling that success will never find it way to your doorstep.

[uptou]

I trade Forex. I lost my as s until I took a mentoring course after that it has been all profits. It is really not that hard. A currency can only go two ways, up or down. After you have your trend based software and a signals based software working like they taught me in the mentoring class you are only making high quality trades. I found all the information at the site below. Since I found this site I have been rolling in it. Forex Trading Reviews

I hope this helps. If you think about it. A currency can only go up or down. And if it is already trending in one direction, why fight the trend, just jump in and enjoy the ride. That's what I was taught and it has worked really well. Then I have a signal based software that sends me a warning when the trend is ending and I get out. Then I wait for the trend software to detect another trending currency and I jump in. Easiest dam money I ever made. Not so HARD!

Hi Billaaa777,are you an affiliate for Forexmentor or just a satisfied customer? I see they offer affiliates $150 a pop for that product.

What sort of features does the software have? Is it all on graphs?

I'm just looking for a good dummy account at the moment that i can use for a good while without even thinking about laying down any cash,or,&, i'd be very interested in just finding some free online tools that i can use to judge both fundamental & technical analysis,& then see if i can have success with riding the trends?????

Cheers all.

[Misty]

Book you may wish to read: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From Amazon Book Review: "...In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill...."

I prefer to believe the glass is half full, from you remark it is easy to tell you on the other hand always believe the glass is half empty.

I believe that the time and money I spent educated myself on this subject has had an affect on my level of success. You on the other believe that even if you have success, it is not because of hard work and dedication, but because of luck. There was a famous individual that once said, "Luck is 99% perspiration and 1% dedication." Or something like that.

I am willing to take risk if there are rewards that coincide or exceed those risks. You on the other hand, never take risk, because you believe even if you do succeed monetarily, you will surly fail in the long run. I am so glad my attitude towards life is completely different than yours. I feel sorry for you feeling that success will never find it way to your doorstep.

Billaaa777, have you actually read the book mentioned above? If not, might be worth a read for you too.

As for me, you couldn't be more wrong. I believe in taking educated, calculated risks. I have taken many in life, and continue to do so, and it's overall worked out pretty well for me thus far--so my glass is more than half full. However, I have seen plenty of people take risks they could ill-afford and/or ill-quantify. I've also worked with people who are paid very well to make currency calls, and so I do have some idea of what's involved in trying to predict currency movements.

Something tells me that a "currency mentoring course" isn't going to work for you over the long run. One indicator might be how quick you are to judge me with almost no information.

Best wishes, Misty

[billaaa777]

Hi Billaaa777,are you an affiliate for Forexmentor or just a satisfied customer? I see they offer affiliates $150 a pop for that product. smile.gif

What sort of features does the software have? Is it all on graphs?

I'm just looking for a good dummy account at the moment that i can use for a good while without even thinking about laying down any cash,or,&, i'd be very interested in just finding some free online tools that i can use to judge both fundamental & technical analysis,& then see if i can have success with riding the trends?????

I will tell you how I did it step by step. You can go back and check the records too, of oil, gold and US dollar values and see for yourself how these things have trend lines and move together. Before the financial crises in the US when oil went up to $143. When oil started its run, each day gold and oil went up the dollar went down, almost in a direct correlation. When this was happening, they were just handing you money on the tabling waiting for you to pick it up. Don't believe, then go check the records for your self. That was my biggest winning spree to date, I wish I had more.

As for demo accounts and free info, I was just like you when I started looking for free stuff. I open a demo account at Forex Club and read all the tutorials I could find. Trading Forex Reviews has a long list of them. I found out I did not know anything after all of that and if I wanted to do it I needed to invest something and learn what I was doing. The first thing I did was take Peter Bain Forex Mentor course. It is really not a mentoring program but gave me a comprehensive education on all aspects of currency trading. As least now I had an idea what to do, but did not really have any idea how to make money at it.

Then over the next six months I took Straight Forex, Forex Brotherhood and Fap Winner mentoring programs. I learned a lot, but I never paid one cent for any of the courses. Each one at the end of the class you start trading with the professional trader teaching the class and I made more money than the class cost. I am still a member of the Forex Brotherhood, Jason the pro there allows you to make the same trades he does at the same time he does. A can't lose situation. If you just do what he does you can make thousands each week, of course that is depending on how much you invest of course.

I also have developed my own style. I bought Forex Funnel and Forex Trend System and use the Funnel as my Trend software to detect predicable movements based on past history. And I use Forex trend system to send signals when the trend is changing. Forex Trend System also can function as a trend software, I just like the funnel better.

Now it really pretty easy. I always day trade, so nothing that happens when I am not at the computer can't hurt me. I just chase trends now, not much to it. If I get a signal the trend is ending I check my RSS feed from Reuters to see if I can find out the reason. If I see a news release corresponding to the signal I receive you can be pretty sure you need to get out or get in, which ever the case my be.

You do realize that there are only two ways a currency can go, up or down. If you throw darts at a blackboard blind you would have to be correct 50% of the time. What the mentoring courses thought me, which was a huge help. The key to being a profitable currency trader is to manage your margins. In other words, have them work for you, instead of against you. After you have that down, it is quit simple to tell you the truth.

[billaaa777]

Something tells me that a "currency mentoring course" isn't going to work for you over the long run

You are so right, why go to people who are professionals in there fields to learn something. I will take your advice and never do it again. I will just quite trying to learn and get better. I will just accept that my life is all planed out and there is nothing I can do to help it, it is all luck.

[ray08]

Now it really pretty easy. I always day trade, so nothing that happens when I am not at the computer can't hurt me.

I have traded in the past both currencies and commodites ,made a lot and lost more , followed trends, used stop losses , and had a 24 Reuters pager on me with up to the second price ,

The advice above about only trading when in front of the computer is very good advice ,as you can control profit or losses on the spot and make instant buy ,sell calls ,

ibut it does require a lot of dicipline , and Forex trading is not for eveybody

[unomi]

Book you may wish to read: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From Amazon Book Review: "...In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill...."

Wow, thats amazing, I am reading Black Swan by the same author, gosh we must be spiritually linked!

[Gary A]

Having read the advertisements, it appears simple to make a lot of money with their systems. Some of the systems are guaranteed.

My question is why are these people trying to sell me their secrets for $19.95 when they could be making a fortune using their guaranteed systems?

Personally I figure your odds are just as good going to a casino.

[PCA]

The most common mistake people are doing when trading forex or any other market actually is to predict. There is no prediction possible not even for the very next tick so how can anybody know where the price will be in 1 hour or 3 days and so on. The key to trade profitable is to anticipate which means the price is at point A and if it goes to point B then there is a very high probability (your chance) it will go to point C. You need to wait until things get into motion and then react based on the expectation they will stay in motion. You have to learn a few tactics in and out and then wait for them to occur ready to act accordingly. Point here is to react and not to preact. It takes of course some effort, ambition and screen time to recognize chances. This will bring you to the deep insight that most of the time you will have nothing to do but if and when you should be ready with the right money and trade management. This is one of the best businesses in the world if you possess discipline.

[uptou]

One thing i've noticed is that alot of people seem to day trade forex,but theres also countless sites telling you that in the long run you cannot win with day trading fx as the data is meaningless,& all daily movements are random.Such as this page- http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com/...-Following.html

So whats the deal with day trading?

Cheers all.

[billaaa777]

The most common mistake people are doing when trading forex or any other market actually is to predict.

Why even try to predict, just go with the flow. All I do is follow the trend lines. If a currency has moved 4 days in a row in one direction there is a good chance it is going to the same on the 5th day. If not, you have had at least 3 winning days and 1 losing day. If you put your SL in and take you pain when you have too, then you up at least 2 days. Depending on your investment and your use of margins, then the gain could be just fine. Fine for me that is.

[billaaa777]

One thing i've noticed is that alot of people seem to day trade forex,but theres also countless sites telling you that in the long run you cannot win with day trading fx as the data is meaningless,& all daily movements are random.

So whats the deal with day trading?

Forex trading allows you to use margins much more than stocks. The margins with stock trading is usually no more than 1 or 1. But with Forex it can be as much as 50 to 1. So if the trade is going against you then you can get wiped out in a hurry. So you need to get out. But if the trade is going with you, you can make a big score compared to your initial investment. That is one reason I day trade. Another, is a press release from a government regarding the economy, interest rates, what ever can make a currency change directions right away. If that happens, I want to be there to take advantage of it, of get my as s out if I have too.

[pkrv]

One thing i've noticed is that alot of people seem to day trade forex,but theres also countless sites telling you that in the long run you cannot win with day trading fx as the data is meaningless,& all daily movements are random.

So whats the deal with day trading?

Forex trading allows you to use margins much more than stocks. The margins with stock trading is usually no more than 1 or 1. But with Forex it can be as much as 50 to 1. So if the trade is going against you then you can get wiped out in a hurry. So you need to get out. But if the trade is going with you, you can make a big score compared to your initial investment. That is one reason I day trade. Another, is a press release from a government regarding the economy, interest rates, what ever can make a currency change directions right away. If that happens, I want to be there to take advantage of it, of get my as s out if I have too.

cable in 1 yrd standard trade these days

[whiterussian]

So whats the deal with day trading?

Of course you can predict movements with stocks?

why?

because everyone else is doing it! Most stockbrokers/firms will have TA experts. Technical Analysis, who input advice.

Its a herd thing if nothing else.. same with forex. Esp the asians, they LOVE Tech analysis!!!

At the very basic level think of it as points on a chart where people put money:

people bought at the top an uptrend in the mad rush to buy : - next time the price gets there, people will be at break even... and a %age of those people will SELL at break even. Hence 'resistance'.

Similarly, with 'support', People who bought low, but didnt sell high, will sell at BREAK EVEN if the price falls, and support fails like it is on the dow jones.

Should the price stop falling, the herd may start to graze and create 'support' ie: the buying stops the fall, increases the rate of price increase.

Wall street wants you to believe its safe to BUY now... to stop the fall.

I dont 'buy it'

[DocJD]

PCA's point was quite accurate. The trick to winning is not trying to predict price, but learning to react to price. I do trade FX, profitably. I have learned to analyse currencies and get in on decent market moves. It takes a lot of practice, so give yourself time. You will get there.

[Chewbacka]

I have opened a demo account and have some trading signals from Daily Fx . I'm really interested to know if I can make a profit from just following the trading signals they provide. I guess time will tell!

Does anyone have a view on this?

Thanks in advance.

[PCA]

I have opened a demo account and have some trading signals from Daily Fx . I'm really interested to know if I can make a profit from just following the trading signals they provide. I guess time will tell!

Does anyone have a view on this?

Thanks in advance.

Yes, I have a view on this though not particularly about Daily Fx. On a regular basis you wont make money with any kind of signals as long you don't understand how they are generated hence you can judge their value by backtesting signals of the past if you have access to those data. Signals derived from a system provider are worth to be tried if they give clear instruction about entry, target and stop whilst of course the entry should be posted before the price is reached and not like "we got a signal yesterday or 2 hours ago @ ...". Even if you find a good signal provider I doubt that it will work out for long due to the always changing market conditions. Nevertheless if you chose to try a system service you have to exactly follow the instructions without any kind of deviation.

[lannarebirth]

I have opened a demo account and have some trading signals from Daily Fx . I'm really interested to know if I can make a profit from just following the trading signals they provide. I guess time will tell!

Does anyone have a view on this?

Thanks in advance.

Yes, I have a view on this though not particularly about Daily Fx. On a regular basis you wont make money with any kind of signals as long you don't understand how they are generated hence you can judge their value by backtesting signals of the past if you have access to those data. Signals derived from a system provider are worth to be tried if they give clear instruction about entry, target and stop whilst of course the entry should be posted before the price is reached and not like "we got a signal yesterday or 2 hours ago @ ...". Even if you find a good signal provider I doubt that it will work out for long due to the always changing market conditions. Nevertheless if you chose to try a system service you have to exactly follow the instructions without any kind of deviation.

The best way to get educated is to lose some money first. Then hopefully, one will seek to educate themselves and never become dependant on the input of others. Losing money can be very clarifying and provide proper motivation.

[Chewbacka]

Makes a lot of sense PCA - Cheers. The signals system I have does have specific entry, S/L and target points but too early to tell how it will fair in the long-term.

Are they any particular courses anyone would recommend so I can gain a deper knowledge and be able to back test the signals? I know there are a lot on the market but I was just wondering if there were any that stood out.

[PCA]

Makes a lot of sense PCA - Cheers. The signals system I have does have specific entry, S/L and target points but too early to tell how it will fair in the long-term.

Are they any particular courses anyone would recommend so I can gain a deper knowledge and be able to back test the signals? I know there are a lot on the market but I was just wondering if there were any that stood out.

TradeNavigator, Tradestation are both usable for backtesting. If you are a beginner which I assume you just need to have access to historical intraday data to trace trades back on the charts. You should at least watch back for the last 30 trades and then put them in an excel sheet with a graph chart of the equity curve. Equip the equity chart with a moving average of the last 10 trades and when the curve violates the MA drop to trade the signals until its above it again. Therewith you have a useful tool to monitor the system and your equity development, simple and effective.

[fredfromalaska]

the big boys regularly lose a billion here a bilion there, u think u can do better!

[billaaa777]

Hello, I have been receiving quite a few PM's about my post of Forex trading, to my amazement. I never knew so many people were interested in the subject. I have not been answering them, so I will post all of the answer to there questions here for everybody.

First, if you are going to buy a piece of Forex software and are under the impression it is a means to an end without a comprehensive understanding of the basic concepts to the advanced trading techniques then you are just fooling yourself. Why don't you just send me your investment capital to me, at least one of will be happy. Because you're not going to be.

Second, after you have a complete understanding of the Forex markets is the time to start acquiring your Forex trading systems. I say systems, because there is not one product on the market today that provides all the functions you will require. Or, at least I require. I use three different types in conjunction. A signal based system, a trend based system and a formula based system.

Third, if you just want to try to make money to see if you can and then you will invest later if you make money then try this course. Its name is Forex Made E-Z and you can get it here Trading Forex Reviews . I use the method taught in this class everyday and it turns nice consistent profits with very little risk. You don't have to know anything about Forex. Just follow every thing he say's to the letter and don't get greedy and the end of the month the little profits you make each day will add up to a very nice return.

Fourth, if you want a great Forex program to obtaining an exceptional education on the subject and also want to have the course to pay for itself then try Forex Brotherhood. I have been a member here since it began and trade the professional Forex trader, his name is Jason by the way, portfolio everyday. This is a mentoring program when you get to one on one training. I feel my knowledge is to the point now I really don't need much more training. But, I stay a member because I make $10,000's each month just making the same trades as he does each day. You are allowed to follow his every move in real time and make the same trades as he does in real time. You can even ask him why he makes every trade, which is a great learning tool. How much easier does it get? Not much.

There are two Forex programs that you don't have to know anything about Forex and depending on your investment you put real nice profits in your pocket.

As for Forex software you are just going to lose your money using them until you know what you're doing. I know, because I lost $1,000's until I found Forex Made E-Z and started enrolling in every currency mentoring program I could find. If somebody is really serious about this and takes a mentoring class and gets the knowledge required to take advantage of the software I will tell what I use, which I think are the best products on the market.

Good luck, it is not that hard. And to all you non believers and skeptics I will give you something to think about. I will love to see you answers to this.

Guess what, a currency can only go in one of two directions. It can go up or down. That means if you throw darts at a board blind folded you would be correct 50% of the time. So, if you did not use margins, you would break even if you know NOTHING about the markets. So really, how hard can it be? All you really need to know is how to control your use of margins and make them work for you as opposed to against you. Then let's say you learn a little and are able to take your winning percentage from 50% to 60% or 65% you know what that buys you? Any thing you want is the answer!

Remember, you are guaranteed to be correct 50% of the time; you can NEVER do worse than this. NEVER, it is IMPOSSIBLE!

Therefore the two keys to making big money in the markets are only two small factors. The most important, understanding how to use of margins, leverage trading, forwards and options. The next is just improving you winning percentage a small fraction, which is where the software comes into play.

Now, let somebody dispute that! Impossible, you can’t, the numbers don't lie.