Building Materials - Going Up Or Down £$฿?

[Marvo]

Just like to "probe" those with their fingers on the pulse of the building industry in Thailand.

I'm happily renting at the mo' working on the plans for the future build project (Hua Hin). The budget is extremely tight for what I would like to build and spend the rest of my life living in (฿2-3 mil). I could start the construction in 4 months time but sense that materials (i.e. steel) are starting to drop a little from their crazy high and wonder if the world's loopy financial shenanigans will have any substantial effect inside Thailand and it's local unpredictable pricing.

Also the GBP has recently tanked against the Baht, putting costs up 10% or more before I start. Maybe the £/฿ situation will favorably change within a year or two?

What do the members read to be the possible upside and downside of putting off the build for a year or two? Comments on the subtleties and the bleedin' obvious welcomed. What would you do?

[JimmyTheMook]

Building materials are already at their premium and do not them going up substantially any time soon. The main factor will be your exchage rate and that fact are you sure you want to dump your life savings into something you will probably never be able to liquidate any time soon.

[quiksilva]

My clients in the steel business tell me that the price of steel is dropping rapidly.

[lannarebirth]

There's your proxy for global building materials prices:

[Marvo]

There's your proxy for global building materials prices:

Thanks for the post Lanna, I'm not too hot on technical and financial charts but there seem to be a lot of descending lines on the far right hand side of the graphs . I think I understand what you're trying to tell me. Is that just for copper though?

A niggling doubt remains though as to how (or whether) a slump in "global building materials prices" translates into the "Thai" business model of reducing prices.

Edited October 17, 2008 by Marvo

[lannarebirth]

There's your proxy for global building materials prices:

Thanks for the post Lanna, I'm not too hot on technical and financial charts but there seem to be a lot of descending lines on the far right hand side of the graphs . I think I understand what you're trying to tell me. Is that just for copper though?

A niggling doubt remains though as to how (or whether) a slump in "global building materials prices" translates into the "Thai" business model of reducing prices.

The descending red lines are what is known as "negative divergances". Pointing out that while copper remained high in price it's chart was suffering technical damage. That means prices can be expected to drop from those levels "sometime". You see it's at support noow, and if that were to break for very long I imagine prices will be as attractive "at the commodity level" as they were several years ago. I cannot say what retailers may do.

[LennyW]

As i have said in other posts, the price of steel is closely linked to the price of diesel, now diesel is dropping rapidly - i hope steel will co-incide , shouldnt be far off, although some retailers will no doubt spout sh%te!! about delivery times / stock levels etc!!

As for another poster here waiting for an improvement in the pound/bhat ex rate, dont hold your breath - we would all like that, but .......

Edited October 17, 2008 by LennyW

[longball53098]

The price of steel and other goods that the retailers stocked up with at the higher prices will stay at the higher price until its gone and they get a new shipment at a lower price.The retailer is not going to absorb a loss on the stock he paid the high price for. A high volume retailer/distributor will be able to adjust quickly as they turn over their stock weekly I think.