Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[ExpatJ]

Surprising gold sell offs in the last 24 hours- gold RSI is 76 (overbought) and institutions are apparently taking profits on their gold to cover their equty losses. Im still confident its a buy and hold investment given the turmoil in Europe.

If it is physical you own do not be too concerned or surprised by what its paper equivalent does.

Someone whose opinion I respect has said numerous times there would be a flash crash this first week of August

Seems he is again right. He also states golds new low about the 3rd week of August.

Which means just a new low from its highs. He has also said late August may be the last time to get gold in coin form

at a reasonable premium.

Of course these are just someones thought but again someone I respect so I do enjoy watching the outcomes.

I am neither a seller or buyer as I am well placed & happy with my current position so it matters not to me. But as

I said I enjoy watching.

I have both, but doesn't make a difference paper vesus physical in this case- when silver flash crashed recently it effected phyiscal equally of course . But having a nice chunk in gold and now being mostly cashed out of equities, it is fun to watch the crash! (Im largely cashed out of equities now - took a hit selling, but overall for the year im up for equities profit , so im looking forward to buying opportunities and making a nice profit in coming weeks..)

Edited August 5, 2011 by ExpatJ

[badge]

interesting graph:

Outstanding insight from Yoo...

One could select many markets, products, economic measures etc that correlate, in specific sample periods, to the price of Gold, or any other asset.

Yoo doesnt show the previous decade, where despite numerous raising of the Debt Ceiling Gold declined.

calling something "interesting" has nothing to do with "insight" and nor does it require to mention xyz irrelevant additional references

Interesting

[lannarebirth]

but in what currency to switch?

as you live here and can invest in the SET and ...

THB seems a good a bet as any ??

it would take quite some consumption of cheap booze to make me invest in the SET i hold of course cash THB for a couple of years living expenses, but most of it offshore.

Great dividend plays in the SET- also some hidden gems- just review the top 10 shareholder institutions in some of SET stocks- you'd be surprised at the the number being bought by global big financial players. But im biased- i made a 30% return last year on the SET (with a bit of luck i must admit :-)

Isn't a 30% return an underperformance of the market?

[flying]

I have both, but doesn't make a difference paper vesus physical in this case- when silver flash crashed recently it effected phyiscal equally of course .

Yes & it will happen a few more times I'm sure.

Which is also one of the reasons I pulled out of Silver.

Not because it is dictated as is gold by paper prices but because the silver market is much smaller & easier for them to manipulate. They will soon do the same to gold paper markets with margin call increases.

As the CME did multiple times in Silvers last rise till they broke it....temporarily.

But watch the premiums rise during those times to see the disconnect occur between that which is real & possessed compared to the

paper IOU's for that which does not exist in the quantities they trade.

At some point the rubber band will snap & there will be a disconnect between the two IMO

Long term outlook for both metals has not changed as all. The reasons it has done what it has these last few years has

only increased. Which is after all the reason I bought in the first place. Hang tight is what I plan to do.

Edited August 5, 2011 by flying

[ExpatJ]

but in what currency to switch?

as you live here and can invest in the SET and ...

THB seems a good a bet as any ??

it would take quite some consumption of cheap booze to make me invest in the SET i hold of course cash THB for a couple of years living expenses, but most of it offshore.

Great dividend plays in the SET- also some hidden gems- just review the top 10 shareholder institutions in some of SET stocks- you'd be surprised at the the number being bought by global big financial players. But im biased- i made a 30% return last year on the SET (with a bit of luck i must admit :-)

Isn't a 30% return an underperformance of the market?

Yes quite possibly! My point was that the SET was a great investment location in 2010 .

[12DrinkMore]

Strong franc throttles Swiss industry‎

Switzerland's economy is doing battle with its strong currency, the franc, and is in danger of losing it. This, at least, is the pessimistic view in broad sections of business leadership. Increasingly, the call is being made for the government to act.

With profit margins shrinking and disappearing, industry faces a sharp loss of export business, and having to put workers on reduced hours.

In the meantime, Swiss firms have tried a bit to help each other out by billing in euros within the country, not francs.

The euro is not official legal tender in Switzerland, but in transactions between companies it has already partially achieved this status.

Swiss National Bank Warns Strong Currency Threatens Economy‎

"The Swiss National Bank considers the Swiss franc to be massively overvalued at present. This current strength of the Swiss franc is threatening the development of the economy and increasing the downside risks to price stability in Switzerland.

The other side is that Switzerland imports just about all commodities and a huge amount of goods from Europe, which are now very much cheaper. Switzerland should take advantage of this and the manufactures / exporters / shops drop their prices.

But this is the dreaded "deflation", which even under the current circumstances is the Central Bankers' worst nightmare. And it is the actions of the Central Bankers fighting against declining asset prices that are perpetuating this crisis.

Edited August 5, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

Sorry if I am going a little off topic, unless you consider the CHF to be as good as gold....

http://www.bloomberg...rout-lasts.html

Although Switzerland is currently experiencing a few difficulties due to the failure of the nations that surround it, I am sure that the Swiss will come through. They focus on quality, durability and long term. Anybody who has lived in Switzerland will know the difference between houses constructed in Switzerland compared to the matchsticks glued together in the States, or the Barrat boxes in the UK.

There will always be a market for quality.

As this crisis deepens (does anybody think it is getting better in the west or there is a viable path out of it?), I now believe it is time to drop the "deadwood" and stop trying to paper over the crevasses. It is not going to work. The bitter pill has to be swallowed so that the individual countries can get on with what they do best. The Greeks will never be like the Germans, nor the Italians be like the French. It is a failed political experiment and to perpetuate it is a deceit run by the self-centered politicians, only interested in their own pockets and power.

Dropping the whole Euro-bureaucracy and idiotcracy would bring a HUGE sigh of relief and relieve the Euro-population of the massive overhead of trying to live within it.

PLEASE can somebody just say "fuc_k it!" and start the bloody ball rolling?

I suppose this post belongs in the "Financial Crisis" thread, but I believe the usual suspects lurk around here too...

Edited August 5, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[Naam]

12DrinkMore, on Yesterday, 21:50 , said:

The other side is that Switzerland imports just about all commodities and a huge amount of goods from Europe, which are now very much cheaper. Switzerland should take advantage of this and the manufactures / exporters / shops drop their prices.

a seemingly logical assumption but... a wrong one. apart from tourism, for which nothing is imported, Switzerland adds tremendous value to imported commodities/raw materials before exporting the finished product. that applies to pharmaceuticals, machinery and highly sophisticated weapon systems.

the raw material cost of e.g. a finished pharmaceutical product is ridiculously low, in some cases less than 5%, in most cases less than 10%. value is added by production processes, acquired know-how and the cost spent on research. this added value is generated independently from raw material and paid for in expensive Swiss Francs.

example:

-raw materials CHF 100

-cost of added value CHF 900

-cost of finished product CHF 1,000

if import of raw materials become cheaper by 30% because of CHF strength, cost saving would amount to slightly over 3% of the finished product who's total production cost would still be CHF 970 and who's final price would be nearly 27% higher without CHF appreciation. the pharma companies might be able to absorb much higher cost because of their huge profit margins but the manufacturers of machinery are caught between a rock and a hard place.

friendly advice: "high cube" assumptions, no matter how logical they seem, are not applicable

[cloudhopper]

friendly advice: "high cube" assumptions, no matter how logical they seem, are not applicable

Can you explain this term? Thanks and please use simple words because I have already been correctly identified as an idiot.

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

[Naam]

friendly advice: "high cube" assumptions, no matter how logical they seem, are not applicable

Can you explain this term? Thanks and please use simple words because I have already been correctly identified as an idiot.

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

a harmless joke and a bit of leg pulling which "12" and i are conducting

[Naam]

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

but a healthy reminder that gold does not necessarily go ballistic in times of panic. i read a dozen comments in goldbug websites where (Europe early friday) some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday. they are all quiet now and busy adjusting their rubber sheets...

[flying]

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

but a healthy reminder that gold does not necessarily go ballistic in times of panic. i read a dozen comments in goldbug websites where (Europe early friday) some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday. they are all quiet now and busy adjusting their rubber sheets...

One more reminder

Real gold is actually over 1700 USD even as we speak....About $1725 actually

& no that is not coins...(my favorite) that is plain old Credit Suiss 1 ounce bars

Coins like Maples Krug's etc are $1744/oz USD or more ...if you can get them.

Edited August 6, 2011 by flying

[Lost in LOS]

Can anyone give me the site where I can see current buying and selling prices, per baht, gold bars. The general one and maybe a big store in Pattaya so I know what they will actually give.

When the site posts the selling price, is that the price you would buy it at, or the price they sell it at? Same with buying price. Does this include their premium?

It appears they charge more per baht in Pattaya than in Bangkok, becasue they have to get it from Bangkok, and they charge a priemum for it. Is this correct and if so, how will I know the buying and selling price in pattaya.

thanks for helping me with my confusion

this is from bangkok post site but I am sure there are better ones

The Gold Traders Association this morning set the buying price 22,650 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

The selling prices were set at 22,750 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

I would buy a 1 baht bar for how much and sell one for how much using the above figures, including any premium? thanks

Edited August 6, 2011 by Lost in LOS

[Naam]

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

but a healthy reminder that gold does not necessarily go ballistic in times of panic. i read a dozen comments in goldbug websites where (Europe early friday) some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday. they are all quiet now and busy adjusting their rubber sheets...

One more reminder

Real gold is actually over 1700 USD even as we speak.... About $1725 actually

& no that is not coins...(my favorite) that is plain old Credit Suiss 1 ounce bars

Coins like Maples Krug's etc are $1744/oz USD or more ...if you can get them.

it depends on the size. the smaller, the higher the premium. live prices during trading hours:

http://goldprice.org/swiss-gold-price.html

http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/goldpricesswissfrancs.html

Edited August 6, 2011 by Naam

[churchill]

Unthinkable a week ago but QE now being considered in US , Europe ......

'S&P's downgrade may also push the United States to ease monetary policy further, causing even more uncertainty in global markets, said Ding Yifan, a deputy director at the Development Research Center, a think tank under the State Council.

"I think the chance of the United States launching another round of quantitative easing is rising, as outside investors may try to avoid dollar assets, leaving the Fed with no choice but to buy their own Treasuries," Ding said.

"If the United States really introduces QE3, it will definitely add more uncertainties to the global economy and could push up the prices of global commodities," he added.'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/06/us-china-sp-idUSTRE7750R720110806

I hope Ben , IMF & Co have a plan or this may be a forced reality ....

'What is being built is a new currency system, built on a world market price for gold. ' ...' the USA will see a hyper inflation of its currency and a gold price in dollars that reflects it. Unfortunately, for most investors, the gold price rise will be sudden and also hyper fast. as it will occur just after a rapid plunge in dollar based assets including, stocks, debt and the entire banking system. '

.. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/08/go-go-south-korea.html

[churchill]

Looking forward ...

'It could well be that if we see the European Central Bank, the ECB, follow through on potential buys of both Italian and Spanish debt and confirm that as a certainty over the weekend, that the risk trades will come back on in a big way putting further pressure on the US Treasury markets as traders unload recently purchased bills, notes and bonds and move towards stocks and some commodities once again. If this does occur, then the selling in the bonds could turn quite fierce.

The flip side is if the ECB fails to confirm those bond purchases or traders doubt that the preconditions for such buys will not be effected by politicians from Spain or Italy. If that turns out to be the case it would stoke fears of defaults or further downgrades to the bonds from those nations and would once again set investors on edge, setting off another wave of selling in the global equity markets just like we witnessed this past week.

That would send money back into bonds creating the potential to negate any selling due to the downgrade from S&P. Safe haven flows into the bonds would probably be of sufficient size in that case to outweigh or absorb any downgrade related selling.

In either case, this serves to underscore the safe haven status of gold. If the so-called “safest investment on the planet” (US Treasury debt) may not be as sure a bet at current yields as it once was, where do nervous investors park their money? This should continue to provide a good floor of buying support beneath the metal of kings.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/6_Norcini_-_How_S%26P_Downgrade_of_US_Debt_Will_Impact_Markets.html

[cloudhopper]

'S&P's downgrade may also push the United States to ease monetary policy further, causing even more uncertainty in global markets, said Ding Yifan, a deputy director at the Development Research Center, a think tank under the State Council.

"I think the chance of the United States launching another round of quantitative easing is rising, as outside investors may try to avoid dollar assets, leaving the Fed with no choice but to buy their own Treasuries," Ding said.

"If the United States really introduces QE3, it will definitely add more uncertainties to the global economy and could push up the prices of global commodities," he added.'

If QE causes so much global uncertainty why would an S&P downgrade force the Fed to do more? Wouldn't that in fact justify that downgrade and invite even more?

I wonder how much Ding gets paid to think in that tank.

[churchill]

'S&P's downgrade may also push the United States to ease monetary policy further, causing even more uncertainty in global markets, said Ding Yifan, a deputy director at the Development Research Center, a think tank under the State Council.

"I think the chance of the United States launching another round of quantitative easing is rising, as outside investors may try to avoid dollar assets, leaving the Fed with no choice but to buy their own Treasuries," Ding said.

"If the United States really introduces QE3, it will definitely add more uncertainties to the global economy and could push up the prices of global commodities," he added.'

If QE causes so much global uncertainty why would an S&P downgrade force the Fed to do more? Wouldn't that in fact justify that downgrade and invite even more?

I wonder how much Ding gets paid to think in that tank.

As is happening in Spain and Italy the cost of borrowing goes up and as the US needs to borrow so much and as others may not be so willing to buy -- the Fed has to fund the US to keep interest rates low ?

I think S&P has done the right thing - they are going to force the hand , sooner rather than later , of the talkers( They cannot be thinkers otherwise they would have nipped this in the bud a long time ago )in the US and Europe /

[churchill]

Jim Rogers: US never scraped out of 2008 downturn

[cloudhopper]

This interview might be of interest to gold aficionados.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/8/6_Jim_Rickards.html

[churchill]

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

but a healthy reminder that gold does not necessarily go ballistic in times of panic. i read a dozen comments in goldbug websites where (Europe early friday) some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday. they are all quiet now and busy adjusting their rubber sheets...

Could be Naam - how much has gold risen in trading today - Check India

[Naam]

Well gold seems to have survived this week's carnage in fine shape.

but a healthy reminder that gold does not necessarily go ballistic in times of panic. i read a dozen comments in goldbug websites where (Europe early friday) some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday. they are all quiet now and busy adjusting their rubber sheets...

Could be Naam - how much has gold risen in trading today - Check India

please rephrase you question in a language i understand.

[churchill]

Not sure what you do not understand .. perhaps you should be a politician ..

[Naam]

what is the meaning of

"how much has gold risen in trading today"

did gold also rise in the homes of goldbugs after sprinkling baking powder on the bars without being traded?

[churchill]

'The price of gold zoomed to an all-time high of Rs24,770 per 10 grams by adding Rs420 in New Delhi, India on Saturday on frantic buying by stockists and investors.'

http://www.mining.com/2011/08/06/gold-sky-rockets-to-all-time-high-in-india-customs-revenues-from-bullion-double/

Does India count ? Looks like about 2% - so 1665 plus 34 ?? ( some wet dreamers talked about 1,700 by monday) looks pretty close as we stand but lets see at what price it opens tomorrow ...

of course depending on what announcements we get in the coming hours

Edited August 7, 2011 by churchill

[flying]

Asia/Euro market for gold just opened spiked up + $28 usd & looks like we may be in for a ride... Silver has barely moved at +0.30 usd cents

Will be interesting to see if

1- It holds

2- What the US markets show tomorrow ( Monday Morning )

Edited August 7, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

of course depending on what announcements we get in the coming hours

several hours ago i got an announcement from a friend in Pakistan "Gold $ 2,000 by end of this month... insha'allah!"

[cloudhopper]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-hikes-its-12-month-gold-price-target-1735-1830

[mjnaus]

Today is going to be a good day

[Lost in LOS]

Today is going to be a good day

not for US stocks [just sold most of mine] but it will be for gold. I just brought a lot more last Friday and will be buying more on the next dip