Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

what do you guys use to visualize interactive historical charts ?

I lost my bloomberg access years ago and it ain't coming back.

Not interactive but...........

http://www.kitco.com/market/

Click on the small graph to the left of the metal & you will find some historical & tech charts

Edited January 4, 2012 by flying

[manarak]

what do you guys use to visualize interactive historical charts ?

I lost my bloomberg access years ago and it ain't coming back.

Not interactive but...........

http://www.kitco.com/market/

Click on the small graph to the left of the metal & you will find some historical & tech charts

great thanks - here the interactive kitco charts:

http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts/index.jsp

Edited January 5, 2012 by manarak

[Naam]

interesting for currencies is "comdirect" where you can "cut out" an exact date segment, e.g. USDTHB jun15 till jul14, 2005.

http://www.comdirect...torsBelowChart=

[midas]

what about Jim Rogers and Marc Faber ?

" Faber speaks highly of gold which he says is cheaper today than ten years ago when compared to monetary base expansion and government debt."

http://www.mises.ca/...12-predictions/

Jim Rogers definitely. Straight down the line. No BS. I tend to focus on his long term investment recommendations because it is just too difficult to follow his short term trades. And if he moves out of a position and I don't hear about it I could get seriously burned.

For example, the only long term investment I have heard him recommend for some time is agriculture. I have not invested in agriculture however as I have a 'proof of life' rationale and I just have not seen enough life in agriculture. Rogers has been recommending agriculture for years but it has not really done much except for one period of a few months! But I have no doubt that it will prove a great investment.

He also likes gold and silver but has said for some months that he feels the price has been too high and that a correction was due. Sure as hell, down it came from 1900. When he says he is buying you can be confident it is a pretty good time to buy because he hates buying anything for more than bargain basement prices.

His recent commentary that gold will continue correcting aligned with other research I have undertaken so I just hope he is proven right and the coming weeks will provide a great buying opportunity for gold...... and silver!

And what about Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick ?

Gold Jumps As Citi Says Gold Sell Off Over, Reiterates $2400 Target

http://www.zerohedge...tes-2400-target

I love these guys who are so successful at investing they have to be a wage-earner with a bank.... better to follow the advice of a self-made billionaire investor like Jim Rogers

ok but at the end of the day one thing seems pretty indisputable?everyone is going to

print print print and I believe Rickards regarding China.Do you know why?

Because the Vice Premier of China virtually admitted recently what Rickards is saying.

Rickards: China’s Slowdown Will Be Worse Than You Think

http://profitimes.co...than-you-think/

Edited January 5, 2012 by midas

[flying]

great thanks - here the interactive kitco charts:

http://charts.kitco....harts/index.jsp

Cool thanks I never noticed them as I only glance at the longer term charts these days.

But nice to see those.

Would be nice if they allowed you to draw a trend line on them too.

Thanks

[fritter1970]

ok but at the end of the day one thing seems pretty indisputable?everyone is going to

print print print and I believe Rickards regarding China.Do you know why?

Because the Vice Premier of China virtually admitted recently what Rickards is saying.

Rickards: China’s Slowdown Will Be Worse Than You Think

http://profitimes.co...than-you-think/

Agree totally.

Not printing = Deflation = a quick economic death = politicians not being re-elected

Printing = Inflation = kicking the can down the road = politicians giving themselves the best chance of being re-elected

The end game of the two options is that printing will make a far, far bigger mess down the road - but politicians are such a$$holes they place their own career ahead of the countless millions that will be put into extreme poverty down the track. As far as the USA is concerned, it is Ron Paul as President or those printing presses will keep working overtime!

Edited January 5, 2012 by fritter1970

[fritter1970]

Hey Midas,

Did you read the comments by Rickards on King World News a few days ago? I laugh my a$$ off at the charismatic way he describes his view on stuff. Always enjoyable to listen to. Has some interesting thoughts on gold in the article too.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/30_Jim_Rickards_-_US_to_go_to_War_with_Iran,_Oil_%26_Gold_to_Spike.html

Rickards:

“But I think the (Iranian) regime is too entrenched, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp are too ruthless. They actually buy cranes, they hang people not from scaffolds, but from cranes, and they are buying more cranes because they are hanging more people. They’ll do whatever it takes, so I don’t see regime change.

What’s left? Well, what’s left is war and that is, unfortunately, where I see this heading. There is a lot of maneuvering going on already. The Iranians have a submarine fleet that’s kind of interesting because they run on battery power, so they are extremely quiet and hard to detect. They could take out one or two US vessels.

They also practice these swarm techniques. They have these speed boats, like in Miami Vice, that type of boat that can go 50, 60 knots. (They are) much faster than any naval vessel. They load them up with explosives, they put suicide crews on them....

If you send out one or two, you (the US) would swat them like flies. But if you send out fifty of them, even with these kind of laser guided gatling guns they have on some of the vessels, you can’t take all of them out. So the chance that one of them sinks one of our vessels is not insignificant.”

[midas]

Hey Midas,

Did you read the comments by Rickards on King World News a few days ago? I laugh my a$$ off at the charismatic way he describes his view on stuff. Always enjoyable to listen to. Has some interesting thoughts on gold in the article too.

http://kingworldnews...d_to_Spike.html

Rickards:

“But I think the (Iranian) regime is too entrenched, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp are too ruthless. They actually buy cranes, they hang people not from scaffolds, but from cranes, and they are buying more cranes because they are hanging more people. They’ll do whatever it takes, so I don’t see regime change.

What’s left? Well, what’s left is war and that is, unfortunately, where I see this heading. There is a lot of maneuvering going on already. The Iranians have a submarine fleet that’s kind of interesting because they run on battery power, so they are extremely quiet and hard to detect. They could take out one or two US vessels.

They also practice these swarm techniques. They have these speed boats, like in Miami Vice, that type of boat that can go 50, 60 knots. (They are) much faster than any naval vessel. They load them up with explosives, they put suicide crews on them....

If you send out one or two, you (the US) would swat them like flies. But if you send out fifty of them, even with these kind of laser guided gatling guns they have on some of the vessels, you can’t take all of them out. So the chance that one of them sinks one of our vessels is not insignificant.”

coincidentally I was reading only yesterday about the Iranians having what sounded like much more complex

Naval manoeuvres and strategies than America or Israel could even imagine. And apparently

Iranians are very good at chess or what they call "chatrang".

[Naam]

coincidentally I was reading only yesterday about the Iranians having what sounded like much more complex Naval manoeuvres and strategies than America or Israel could even imagine. And apparently Iranians are very good at chess or what they call "chatrang".

but an outstanding advantage seem to be their silent battery-driven submarines... admired by those who are not aware that all non-nuclear propelled submarines are battery-driven when submerged and that since more than a century

[midas]

so - cutting through the 'noise' - where's it going in next 3 months?

Who really knows eh?

But it did just end its 11th straight year higher than the year before.

Not that it means it is a good investment per se'

yes indeed .....!

from this ....... "gold is in the "beginnings of a real bear market" on December 13 2011

to " Mr. Gartman officially reversed his outlook for gold, saying he now views the precious metal as being in a bull market. "

Gartman admits he made a bad call on gold

http://business.fina...n-call-on-gold/

Edited January 6, 2012 by midas

[midas]

double post

Edited January 6, 2012 by midas

[flying]

Here is an interesting chart

It comes with a commentary I will paste below

It is from a much larger article/outlook for 2012 markets

Article Here

2011 was a difficult year for precious metals. Gold soared to a record $1,912 an ounce in September and went into a swift decline. Silver peaked in late April at $49.50 an ounce and its correction was also swift.

If there was a bad call here in the past year it was that no strong bull market developed for the precious metals in the latter part of the year, as the seasonals usually suggest. This in particular negatively impacted the junior exploration sector, which had a sharp decline in 2011 even though fundamentally there was nothing wrong with the junior companies. The senior and intermediate gold stocks traded in a range throughout the year, with numerous whipsaws.

Gold appears to be in the process of completing a possible 34-month cycle trough. If that is correct then new highs above $1,912 would confirm that the next up cycle is underway. Since the last few months were weak, seasonal cycles suggest that the first few months of 2012 could be strong. In 2011 there was a low in January and the first phase of gold's 2011 rise topped first in late April before a shallow correction set in. Silver's correction was considerably steeper at the same time.

Since the secular bull market in gold got underway in 2001 the yearly low has tended to come in the first few months of the year, with lows in January or February not unusual. As long as gold (and silver) are not making new lows after February 2012, the low for the year is probably in. Potential objectives for gold once new highs are seen could range from $2,200 to $2,600. Silver could see $50 once again and go as high as $60 to $70. Their performance in the first half of the year may determine their strength in what is normally the strongest seasonal period in the last few months of the year.

The monthly chart of gold shows the classic stair step rise in a bull market. This bull market has been particularly strong and gold has been up every year since 2001. Only once during the past 10 years did gold break down under the 18 month MA. That was in 2008 confirming that it was a significant correction. A new bull market was confirmed once gold rose to new highs in 2009. The 2008 low is suspected to be a known 8.5 year cycle low. If that is correct the next one is not due until 2016-2018. The 8.5 year cycle breaks down usually into 3 phases of a 34 month low. The current correction appears to fit with that cycle. As with a number of past corrections gold has to date held the 18 month MA. Above $1,700 gold breaks out to suggest it could see new highs above $1,912.

[churchill]

Gold Lease Rates heading lower again and a stronger dollar ...another dip coming ?

http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/01/danger-will-robinson.html

http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/2012/01/party-may-be-over.html

[churchill]

Ned Naylor-Leyland: “The Chain of Custody Behind Gold’s Price Setting Mechanism Appears to be Breaking”

Edited January 7, 2012 by churchill

[udonguy]

Ned Naylor-Leyland: “The Chain of Custody Behind Gold’s Price Setting Mechanism Appears to be Breaking”

I have read this but still can't figure if he's saying down or up! bull or bear for gold and silver in 2012?

[churchill]

Ned Naylor-Leyland: “The Chain of Custody Behind Gold’s Price Setting Mechanism Appears to be Breaking”

I have read this but still can't figure if he's saying down or up! bull or bear for gold and silver in 2012?

He is bullish but worried about prices short term .. and perhaps that short term dip is over .....

Gold hits one-month high as demand blooms

* Gold breaks above 200-day moving average at $1,635/oz

* Price rises as imports to China flag strong demand

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/11/markets-precious-idUSL6E8CB2IO20120111?feedType=RSS&feedName=basicMaterialsSector&rpc=6

[Naam]

in between a look back 750 years:

[churchill]

Goldman on metal pawning

'In gold, the relationship between real interest rates and gold prices has opened up to the widest levels in the current cycle. This wedge between gold prices and real interest rates as measured by 10-year TIPS was driven by a substantial surge in the demand for US dollars during December. This demand for US dollars drove the gold lease rates to unprecedented negative levels as US dollars became increasingly more valuable than gold. This new demand for dollars was mostly from European banks using the gold market to source US dollar liquidity when their funding from the US money markets dried up, which created a significant amount of gold selling.

In turn, the re-convergence of gold and real interest rates is dependent upon how long this dollar-funding liquidity squeeze lasts, forcing European banks to source US dollars from the gold market. We believe that many European banks will likely exit or sell many of their US dollar based businesses in 2012, which will likely substantially reduce this US dollar demand from the gold market, taking the pressure off gold lease rates, and pushing gold prices back up in line with real interest rates. Further, following ECB’s aggressive action on funding through the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), the near-term pressure on European bank funding has eased significantly. Accordingly, we are maintaining our 12-month target of $1,940/toz'

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/13/831971/goldman-on-metal-pawning/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[midas]

. I predict a resolution ofthe Euro crisis in March, because Europe has no choice but to take the medicine, the markets will settle down and look for the next victim. That's what markets do.

if anything things are looking worse now than when you posted that comment

Wait… Wasn’t the Greek Issue Solved Already?

" And so the Greek issue has become a kind of “hot potato” that no one wants to keep holding. Meanwhile, every day that this issue doesn’t get solved, the EU as a whole moves closer to systemic failure.

After all, the very same issues that are plaguing Greece (namely the inability to find additional bailout funds) are going to take down Spain, Italy, and the other PIIGS. And once they do, the EU in its current form will be broken up."

http://gainspainscapital.com/

Edited January 15, 2012 by midas

[churchill]

Smelly socks .. ?

Silver miner sees demand boost from socks

https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/CommoditiesNews?documentKey=1314-L1E8CBFWM-1

[midas]

If people didnt learn from the MF Global scandal that you simply can't trust 3rd parties

with your hard earned money any longer then hopefully they will get the message this time

Breaking News

Barret Capital Management accused of using client cash for its own purposes

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/breakingnews/barret-capital-management-accused-of-using-client-cash-for-its-own-purposes-137439933.html

[Naam]

If people didnt learn from the MF Global scandal that you simply can't trust 3rd parties

with your hard earned money any longer then hopefully they will get the message this time

[midas]

If people didnt learn from the MF Global scandal that you simply can't trust 3rd parties

with your hard earned money any longer then hopefully they will get the message this time

Breaking News

Barret Capital Management accused of using client cash for its own purposes

http://www.winnipegf...-137439933.html

even the US government can't be trusted

U.S. Suspends Pension-Fund Payments Amid Debt-Limit Debate

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-17/u-s-treasury-suspends-payments-to-fund-amid-debt-limit-debate?category=

[waza]

Millionaires Back Buffett Tax If They’re Exempt

Millionaires support Warren Buffett’s view that the wealthiest should pay more in taxes, as long as it’s other rich Americans, according to a survey released today.

About 71 percent of millionaires surveyed said they agree with Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), that the very wealthy ought to pay more taxes and give more to charity. That included 49 percent who said that they’re “not in the same league” as Buffett and that the higher taxes shouldn’t apply to them personally, according to the survey from PNC Wealth Management, a unit of Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-17/buffett-tax-on-wealthy-backed-by-millionaires-if-they-re-exempt

[waza]

Gold may hit $2,000, end long bull-run, GFMS says

Gold may reach a record high above $2,000 an ounce in late 2012 or early 2013, but the precious metal is nearing the end of a decade-long run that has lifted prices by more than 600 percent, metals research firm GFMS said on Tuesday...........The report does acknowledge that the gold market is nearing the closing stages of its decade-long bull run and that, once the macroeconomic backdrop changes and investment in gold fades — probably some time next year.................Most of this decline will likely be due to softer demand from India, still the world's biggest bullion buyer.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl-gold-prices-011812-20120117,0,4376946.story

[udonguy]

Gold may hit $2,000, end long bull-run, GFMS says

Gold may reach a record high above $2,000 an ounce in late 2012 or early 2013, but the precious metal is nearing the end of a decade-long run that has lifted prices by more than 600 percent, metals research firm GFMS said on Tuesday...........The report does acknowledge that the gold market is nearing the closing stages of its decade-long bull run and that, once the macroeconomic backdrop changes and investment in gold fades — probably some time next year.................Most of this decline will likely be due to softer demand from India, still the world's biggest bullion buyer.

http://www.sun-senti...0,4376946.story

so sell at as near 2000 as you can seems to be the message as it could fall... to what? sub 1500? less?

[udonguy]

if it stays above 1650 I think there is a fair chance it will break through 1700 running upwards and maybe touching 1900 before a significant dip which has got to happen at some stage

[Naam]

if it stays above 1650 I think there is a fair chance it will break through 1700 running upwards and maybe touching 1900 before a significant dip which has got to happen at some stage

a weakening Dollar caused the recent $50/ounce rise. another two cents weakening vs. EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD or SGD and we'll see the 1,700 - whether this is significant for a further rise is highly unlikely.

[flying]

Yup agreed the dollar took a little dip & it shows....

Overall I do not mind these periods of basing or what ever you want to call it.

In fact it is the weeks when gold is rising like a rocket that usually scare me

as possible irrational exuberance could be the cause.

That gold has sat in its place for awhile now ( past month or two ) even though the dollar has had gains is a good

sign for me.

Take a look at the dollar 3 month versus gold 60 days

Sorry I did not have a 3 month gold chart

[udonguy]

if it stays above 1650 I think there is a fair chance it will break through 1700 running upwards and maybe touching 1900 before a significant dip which has got to happen at some stage

a weakening Dollar caused the recent $50/ounce rise. another two cents weakening vs. EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD or SGD and we'll see the 1,700 - whether this is significant for a further rise is highly unlikely.

your view is a dip to sub 1600 within next few months? I ask as I have just sold a condo and looking where to put proceeds