Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

http://graphics.thom...NE_REPORT2.html

try going there and looking at the bank exposure map.

or here http://graphics.thom...EXP0212_SB.html

We'll see how this official default and the impending CDS auctions will "not" effect the markets on the 19th. My take it that gold is going to get a boost by all this until the banks step in again to manipulate "intervene" in order to hide the negative effects of all this money creation called "QE"

France alone has nearly 50 Billion in exposure to Greece debt.

all discounted, snow of last winter, water under the bridge.

[Naam]

Well, it's official.. greece has defaulted triggering the CDS. Gold did a small rally when this news broke just before markets closed on Friday...

edit: come to think of it.. this credit event might mean that greece loses all its physical gold to it's creditors.

i hate to break the news for you Jayman. but this credit event (CDS trigger) is as important to Greece and its Gold holdings as the price of Som Tam in Buriram.

[Naam]

And that's exactly how the central banks keep the price of gold from exposing all their rampant QE. Shorting paper gold that doesn't exist.

an interesting theory, unfortunately without a shred of evidence.

[lannarebirth]

However, the market for CDS contracts on Greek bonds is relatively small, valued at $3.2 billion, and analysts do not expect the ruling to be disruptive to financial markets.

journàsslist! the quoted amount of $3.2-3.5 billion is correct. however it is not the market value but the pos/neg net balance of all CDSs on Greek bonds presently in the market. a year ago that net balance exceeded $5 billion.

correct is also the assumption that this peanuts amount will not be disruptive to financial markets even though a few banks with relatively individual high exposure might get into temporary trouble till an injection of taxEURos will solve their problems.

I think the numbers bandied about are swaps that the ISDA mediates. I think a number of counterparties found the ISDA to have a conflict of interests and sought other arbiters or triggers. That will likely make the number higher still but nowhere near the numbers quoted above ^^^^. I wonder how many Portugal counterparties will want ISDA arbitration in the future? Fool me once.....

Edited March 11, 2012 by lannarebirth

[gogobar8]

Troll posts removed, if it happens again please use the report button, thanks

Sorry sbk.

Missing the opportunity of listening to the tgf when she's looking at me. 6000 miles away.

I'm climbing the wall like a geko.

Apologies to all posters for any offense.

ggb8

[Jayman]

And that's exactly how the central banks keep the price of gold from exposing all their rampant QE. Shorting paper gold that doesn't exist.

an interesting theory, unfortunately without a shred of evidence.

King World News today has a wonderful interview with gold trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair, who says central banks are restraining the gold price so it won't expose "quantitative easing" quite so much. Sinclair adds that the increasing number of mechanisms being established for bypassing the U.S. dollar in trade settlement foreshadow the dollar's decline. A summary of the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_Jim...

[Naam]

some people believe what "legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News", others believe in tangible facts on the table. talk is cheap. Sinclair is presenting voo-doo:

"the legends of Wall Street, Jim Sinclair. Jim, it's really pleasure to speak with you.

Jim Sinclair: It's my pleasure to be with you.

James: Thank you. I'd listened to your brilliant presentation here at the GATA conference in London. I'd like to talk to you about it a little bit. I want to focus in on this $1,764 number. How did you come to this $1,764 number on gold?

Jim: The angels that I've published, the numbers that I've suggested and to a large degree been successful with, actually come from a formula that Jesse Livermore used. And he actually used it for new issues, but it applies to gold. It was published in 1923 in The Wall Street Journal, and it's called the square of the numbers.

James: OK. Now the significant thing in my mind is that when this $1,764 number is breached to the upside you were saying that gold could go exponential. Can you explain some of your thinking behind that?

Jim: Well, we've been through two phases in gold in my opinion. In other words the first phase was rather arithmetic. It had a nice angle of appreciation, but not a great angle. When we cross the $524.90, I suggested to people that possibly trading wasn't the best idea. That real money is made by holding a position that's right and holding it for the duration of that period of correctness.

James: Riding the trend.

Jim: Just riding that whole trend without the need for leverage.

James: Yeah, I agree with you.

Jim: Without the need for catching every interim top. $1,764 has the same implications as $524.90 had. It's mathematical. But what it would indicate would be that the trend had changed now from arithmetic with certain periods of a geometric rise into a period of time where exponential rises are possible. $1,764 is the loss of confidence. $1,764 is the king has no clothes. $1,764 is the transparency of the depths of our problems and the duration of our problems."

[Jayman]

Say what you want about Jim Sinclair but he is considered an expert in Gold in many circles around the world. I listen and respect his analysis over some newscaster any day.

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Jim Sinclair is primarily a precious metals specialist and a commodities and foreign currency trader. He founded the Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services in stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles. The companies, which operated branches in New York , Kansas City, Toronto , Chicago , London and Geneva , were sold in 1983.

From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker.

He was also a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation (commodity clearing firm) and Global Arbitrage (derivative dealer in metals and currencies).

In April 2002, shareholders of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (formerly Tan Range Exploration) approved the acquisition of Tanzania American International, a company managed by the Sinclair family. Following this transaction, Mr. Sinclair became Chairman of Tanzanian Royalty and now leads its efforts to become a gold producer and royalty company.

He has authored numerous magazine articles and three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects, including precious metals, trading strategies and geopolitical events, and their relationship to world economics and the markets. He is a frequent and enormously popular speaker at gold investment conferences and his commentary on gold and other financial issues garners extensive media coverage at home and abroad.

In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair launched, “Jim Sinclair’s MineSet,” which now hosts his gold commentary and is intended as a free service to the gold community.

Edited March 11, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

Say what you want about Jim Sinclair but he is considered an expert in Gold in many circles around the world. I listen and respect his analysis over some newscaster any day.

i pointed to facts such as the "$1,764 voo-doo" it is of course your prerogative to believe in voo-doo. i don't. to each his own.

[midas]

it will be " off with his head " if he is wrong!

“Not owning gold is a form of insanity,” Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital (believed to be the private broker for the British royal family) told CNBC on Jan. 11. “It may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention.”

there have been so many times I thought I was insane

http://etfdailynews....sgol-phys-agol/

Edited March 12, 2012 by midas

[churchill]

As a public service announcement I'd like to let everyone know that Mrs. LRB has been on my ass for the past couple of weeks to start trading Gold as her friends "are making money everyday buying and selling". She says "they buy it when it goes down and sell it later when it goes back up and it always goes back up"

She's never shown any kind of interest in this kind of thing before, so make of it what you will.

Well just to warn you to take care .....Wives can be very persuasive ...

Peak Oil ... I don't think so .. perhaps peak silver ...http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-jordan/2011/09/28/peak-silver

but what about peak gold ? http://www.sciencema...x=21&submit=yes Pretty amazing ... a "peak gold" article, not on some crazy blog, but in the most prestigious US scientific journal.

Not sure if Naam or Mrs is involved in this one ... 'In 2013, the Indian Space Research Organisation is planning its second moon mission, called Chandrayaan-2. One of its principal mandates is to find indications that mining the moon for precious metals will be worthwhile.'

http://business-repo...;s-a-mad-world/

When to sell ? ... when they start mining the moon ....

Edited March 12, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

Not sure if Naam or Mrs is involved in this one ... 'In 2013, the Indian Space Research Organisation is planning its second moon mission, called Chandrayaan-2. One of its principal mandates is to find indications that mining the moon for precious metals will be worthwhile.'

i swear by the eyesight of all my illegitimate children and grandchildren that i am not involved. but now i'm having second thoughts as far as the Mrs is concerned who abruptly stops speaking Hindi with our housekeepers and switches to Burmese or Nepali whenever i approach them. i was already getting suspicious when i realised that nowadays they hardly ever use plain German, French or Spanish.

thanks for the hint Churchill! i will secretly carry out some follow up and keep you informed.

[gogobar8]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

[gogobar8]

Luxury hotel or a noodle soup outside a 7/11?

Only Churchill and Mrs Naam would appear to know the truth.

I would do neither with either.

Nor would they I guess.

I'll settle for the mediocrity (? class) of a piece of gold round a peasant girl's neck.

But that's just me.

[Naam]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

you must be the sharpest tool in the shed...

[Naam]

Pt/Au back to par 1695. PT was down to 86%.

[Jayman]

Gold could fall hard if Fed backs off QE3

Written by Adam Button

March 13, 2012 at 17:37 GMT

Gold has slipped about $5 in the past few minutes on some pre-FOMC jitters, to $1693. The 200-day moving average, at $1682, is the level to watch after the decision.

[Jayman]

and... gold hit $1680

[flying]

Pt/Au back to par 1695. PT was down to 86%.

Yes from $150 spread

I have heard a cyclist claim it is a yearly win between Dec & April

This is the 1st year I have actually watched it though...just out of curiosity

[flying]

and... gold hit $1680

Yep on cue & bounced...

Will be interesting to see where to now...

Edited March 13, 2012 by flying

[flying]

plowed through the 1680 & now at 1670

Hmmm dollar still not rising much though....

[Jayman]

yeah.. I think the lack of QE3 hopes really hits gold in the nuts.

[flying]

yeah.. I think the lack of QE3 hopes really hits gold in the nuts.

Yes makes me glad I sold 75% of my physical on 2/28-3/1

But of course I will re-buy once situated in next country

[Jayman]

On the latest edition of "The Keiser Report" on the Russia Today network, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the growing concern in Germany and Switzerland about the vulnerability of their gold reserves in United States custody. GATA's work is cited

[Naam]

Pt/Au back to par 1695. PT was down to 86%.

Yes from $150 spread

I have heard a cyclist claim it is a yearly win between Dec & April

This is the 1st year I have actually watched it though...just out of curiosity

don't know what the cyclist meant but this is only the third time (i think in history) that Pt was/is cheaper than Au. moreover, it never lasted that long when it happened before.

[Jayman]

Pt/Au back to par 1695. PT was down to 86%.

Yes from $150 spread

I have heard a cyclist claim it is a yearly win between Dec & April

This is the 1st year I have actually watched it though...just out of curiosity

don't know what the cyclist meant but this is only the third time (i think in history) that Pt was/is cheaper than Au. moreover, it never lasted that long when it happened before.

I personally bought some Pt when it was cheaper than Au at around $900/oz or so a few years back. It's the only Pt I own.

EDIT: Just checked my records an I paid about $800/oz for the Pt back in dec 2008. The price was just under the price of gold at the time..

Edited March 13, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

On the latest edition of "The Keiser Report" on the Russia Today network, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the growing concern in Germany and Switzerland about the vulnerability of their gold reserves in United States custody. GATA's work is cited

for the record... i am daily following the media in both my home countries Germany and Switzerland and have never read anything about "growing concerns" as some gold pushing biased media, e.g. "International Business Times" (the global gold portal) and sensationalist like Max Keiser present it to their faithful audience/followers.

[Jayman]

On the latest edition of "The Keiser Report" on the Russia Today network, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the growing concern in Germany and Switzerland about the vulnerability of their gold reserves in United States custody. GATA's work is cited

for the record... i am daily following the media in both my home countries Germany and Switzerland and have never read anything about "growing concerns" as some gold pushing biased media, e.g. "International Business Times" (the global gold portal) and sensationalist like Max Keiser present it to their faithful audience/followers.

Since it seems that several of the gold info sources I have posted don't pass your test I would be interested to hear what you think of GATA.

[edgarfriendly]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

you must be the sharpest tool in the shed...

In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks??

I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on...

Lamest troll ever??

Bored of your peasants neck already??

'Apparently' China's awesome...

[churchill]

'Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.'

What about Tide ? 'It's become, apparently, a "common currency" on the black market — even earning the name "liquid gold" '

http://consumerist.com/2012/03/thieves-are-targeting-tide-detergent-for-resale-on-the-black-market.html