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Where Is Gold Going In This Market


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long term i say repeat the seemingly obvious.

short term gold, not 'we' seems to be in a somewhat downward trend but i might be just basing that on recent activity and not on genuine analysis.

overall, surrounded by morons repeating shit they hardly believe themselves.

better to appear 'in the know' than to reveal uncertainty through personal thought and opinion.

just like the locals from the cradle to the grave..

mun mun mun, etc

I showed you my chart and gave you my analysis. I'm trading it that way. Take it or leave it. If you're just going to add more blah blah blah then you'll prob fit right in around here.

if you're just going to cut n paste articles and Sharts and then call them your own opinions & theories, you'll prob fit right in around here...take it or leave it

That is the chart from my computer sitting right next to me. I took drew the trendlines and the took the screen shot and posted it. If I quote others I usually list the source (unless it's info I shouldn't really be sharing)

In any case... what's the point with sharing anything here since it's all met with so much criticism.

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Yeah, hold on to your gold like I do when I got a lot when gold was B4000 or B8000 per one baht weigh.

I sometimes wonder what they are for sitting in the bank vault. I asked my wife to sell some so I could buy a luxury motor like my neighbor who owns a BMW, a Benz, and a Land Rover - there's only one driving. But my wife said the gold got sentimental values. That's that! My wife rules as long as we live ok.

if i had anywhere near 4000 or 8000 I'd get out and come back later - there will be a correction

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Yeah, hold on to your gold like I do when I got a lot when gold was B4000 or B8000 per one baht weigh.

I sometimes wonder what they are for sitting in the bank vault. I asked my wife to sell some so I could buy a luxury motor like my neighbor who owns a BMW, a Benz, and a Land Rover - there's only one driving. But my wife said the gold got sentimental values. That's that! My wife rules as long as we live ok.

if i had anywhere near 4000 or 8000 I'd get out and come back later - there will be a correction

1900+ to 1500 is the correction.. that is the stage i believe we are in now.

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right or wrong I got out of Au this morning on the 'up trend' as I fear it may drop quite a lot soon as the Euro gang will come up with a 'we have got it fixed' crap line and some of the large fiat reserves could buy into the market and Au could fall... but then maybe I have it all wrong tongue.png

We are quite happy with our Gold holdings and have no plans to get out, especially because we can soon import our physical Gold to Singapore without paying VAT.

right or wrong I got out of Au this morning on the 'up trend' as I fear it may drop quite a lot soon as the Euro gang will come up with a 'we have got it fixed' crap line and some of the large fiat reserves could buy into the market and Au could fall... but then maybe I have it all wrong tongue.png

We are quite happy with our Gold holdings and have no plans to get out, especially because we can soon import our physical Gold to Singapore without paying VAT.

we also plan to hold a decent amount in Singapore when tax is taken off in October but well probably sell some here or in Hong Kong and then buy physical stuff for storage in a safe deposit account. On other hand we do have some gold and silver stored in Hong Kong in Brinks which is probably just as safe and although we have not tried it yet were told by goldmoney we can easily pick it up anytime we want. The problem with moving gold from here is that mostly its thai gold and youll have ot get it assayed in another country and probably accept less than you can get for it here. On other hand gold here has only about 1/2% or less buy/sell spread while buying gold eagles and rest has more ike a 6% buy/sell spread. At moment we have in gold and silver around 35% here, 25% in Hong Kong HSBC 25% with bullian vault in a mat vault, 10% with gold money in brinks vault in Hong Kong and 5% stored in UK with a relative. Well be buying more for sure over next year or so until we reach around 40-50% of our assets in gold and silver.

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I reckon all the nervous nelly's have gone ....

Those that remain will not sell ..

Going up ..

we sell when we need food or something and now never hold any fiat money. We simply convert ASAP into gold or silver when we have any spare fiat stuff.

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***The problem with moving gold from here is that mostly its thai gold and youll have ot get it assayed in another country and probably accept less than you can get for it here***

Having it assayed is not a solution. If you want to move 965 gold out of Thailand I strongly suggest you convert it into 999 when still in Thailand to avoid big hassle abroad. The conversion will not cost an arm and a leg.

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I reckon all the nervous nelly's have gone ....

Those that remain will not sell ..

Going up ..

we sell when we need food or something and now never hold any fiat money. We simply convert ASAP into gold or silver when we have any spare fiat stuff.

I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

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***The problem with moving gold from here is that mostly its thai gold and youll have ot get it assayed in another country and probably accept less than you can get for it here***

Having it assayed is not a solution. If you want to move 965 gold out of Thailand I strongly suggest you convert it into 999 when still in Thailand to avoid big hassle abroad. The conversion will not cost an arm and a leg.

***The problem with moving gold from here is that mostly its thai gold and youll have ot get it assayed in another country and probably accept less than you can get for it here***

Having it assayed is not a solution. If you want to move 965 gold out of Thailand I strongly suggest you convert it into 999 when still in Thailand to avoid big hassle abroad. The conversion will not cost an arm and a leg.

it

costs little to get it assayed I used ti use Birmingham assey office in Uk to assay all silver jewellery I sold and it worked out around 1 gbp a piece. Even if you convert to 99.99% here youll still have to have it assayed to get best price.

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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

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' one way to do this to force banks to give loans ' .... don't think that will work ..imagine ..loans for what ..

I see QE as a positive .. what we need is confidence in markets and that central w/bankers know what they are doing .. so inflate markets .. create confidence so people start investing and spending ..

Get the wheels turning ...

The first 2 phases of QE have done nothing to improve the economy in the US. Phase 3 will have a similar effect. The only thing it will do is add to the national debt, which this administration is quite adept at doing. The only thing QE3 will do is to drive down the USD index and the US markets will get a bump from this devaluation. Much like a coke addict looking for the next bump. After a while the drug stops working and you have to wake up and smell the coffee. The world is at that stage.

The major US banks do not have a liquidity problem, they have regulatory problems at this stage and QE will do nothing to improve this. There is money to loan in the system, IF the applicant qualifies under the stringent requirements since 2008. The big banks are too busy playing the hedge fund game to be bothered with typical banking business, such as risking assets on companies that need financial assistance to grow.

If I could be so bold as to ask, just how is inflation supposed to add confidence so the public with spend? Your argument makes zero sense as people spend less on everything except consumer staples when inflation increases.

The last one is a face-palm moment. Central banker know what they are doing. Thanks for the laugh.

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' one way to do this to force banks to give loans ' .... don't think that will work ..imagine ..loans for what ..

I see QE as a positive .. what we need is confidence in markets and that central w/bankers know what they are doing .. so inflate markets .. create confidence so people start investing and spending ..

Get the wheels turning ...

The first 2 phases of QE have done nothing to improve the economy in the US. Phase 3 will have a similar effect. The only thing it will do is add to the national debt, which this administration is quite adept at doing. The only thing QE3 will do is to drive down the USD index and the US markets will get a bump from this devaluation. Much like a coke addict looking for the next bump. After a while the drug stops working and you have to wake up and smell the coffee. The world is at that stage.

The major US banks do not have a liquidity problem, they have regulatory problems at this stage and QE will do nothing to improve this. There is money to loan in the system, IF the applicant qualifies under the stringent requirements since 2008. The big banks are too busy playing the hedge fund game to be bothered with typical banking business, such as risking assets on companies that need financial assistance to grow.

If I could be so bold as to ask, just how is inflation supposed to add confidence so the public with spend? Your argument makes zero sense as people spend less on everything except consumer staples when inflation increases.

The last one is a face-palm moment. Central banker know what they are doing. Thanks for the laugh.

Hi I said " what we need is confidence in markets and that central w/bankers know what they are doing '

I did not mean to indicate that Central Bankers know what they are doing ... quite the opposite .. They have no idea at this stage .. but they need to give the market confidence that they have some idea .

Re Inflation .. I look at it rather the other way around .. If deflation takes hold and prices start to fall .. for assets , goods etc people will not spend always waiting for cheaper prices ... That does not sound good to me for business or households .. At least some inflation is positive and if the only way to get it is QE then QE it has to be .smile.png

Payrolls Number Disappoints - Risk Off

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/payrolls-number-disappoints-risk-off.html#comment-form

Edited by churchill
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' one way to do this to force banks to give loans ' .... don't think that will work ..imagine ..loans for what ..

I see QE as a positive .. what we need is confidence in markets and that central w/bankers know what they are doing .. so inflate markets .. create confidence so people start investing and spending ..

Get the wheels turning ...

The first 2 phases of QE have done nothing to improve the economy in the US. Phase 3 will have a similar effect. The only thing it will do is add to the national debt, which this administration is quite adept at doing. The only thing QE3 will do is to drive down the USD index and the US markets will get a bump from this devaluation. Much like a coke addict looking for the next bump. After a while the drug stops working and you have to wake up and smell the coffee. The world is at that stage.

The major US banks do not have a liquidity problem, they have regulatory problems at this stage and QE will do nothing to improve this. There is money to loan in the system, IF the applicant qualifies under the stringent requirements since 2008. The big banks are too busy playing the hedge fund game to be bothered with typical banking business, such as risking assets on companies that need financial assistance to grow.

If I could be so bold as to ask, just how is inflation supposed to add confidence so the public with spend? Your argument makes zero sense as people spend less on everything except consumer staples when inflation increases.

The last one is a face-palm moment. Central banker know what they are doing. Thanks for the laugh.

Hi I said " what we need is confidence in markets and that central w/bankers know what they are doing '

I did not mean to indicate that Central Bankers know what they are doing ... quite the opposite .. They have no idea at this stage .. but they need to give the market confidence that they have some idea .

Re Inflation .. I look at it rather the other way around .. If deflation takes hold and prices start to fall .. for assets , goods etc people will not spend always waiting for cheaper prices ... That does not sound good to me for business or households .. At least some inflation is positive and if the only way to get it is QE then QE it has to be .smile.png

Payrolls Number Disappoints - Risk Off

http://traderdannorc...ml#comment-form

Yes, deflation is a bigger fear right now. The problem for the Fed in particular is not that they don't know what they are doing, but that they are uncertain whether to move towards QE3 right now. There is an underlying problem that money creation is not entering the real economy but rather coming straight back into Treasury deposits. Current political uncertainty accentuated by the forthcoming US election makes for economic uncertainty and so two factors; one is that any QE3 might have extremely limited effect as businesses less likely to touch it and secondly the banks are being bashed both for taking 'risk' and not lending to businesses. Its jammed up.

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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

Edited by binjalin
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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

The important point here is that it is your property which is generating a regular monthly income (dividend). Do not surrender that lightly.

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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

The important point here is that it is your property which is generating a regular monthly income (dividend). Do not surrender that lightly.

But what happens when tenants lose their jobs or just won't pay the rent because they are hard up?

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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

The important point here is that it is your property which is generating a regular monthly income (dividend). Do not surrender that lightly.

But what happens when tenants lose their jobs or just won't pay the rent because they are hard up?

Oh you mean like what is happening all over California? When that happens you stop getting your dividends and good luck kicking them out easily with the current renters rights.

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I convert much of my fiat into property - people will always need somewhere to live even if rents halved!!!

true and a wise choice but not very liquid if you need money and things can go very bad sometimes. We have 50% of our assets in property 35% now in gold and silver and 15% in stocks. If your rental dries up and believe me it can very quickly you still need liquid to but the food and things. If people get desperate and it happens they wont pay any rent even half or they will just go and live in tents and that happens.

Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

The important point here is that it is your property which is generating a regular monthly income (dividend). Do not surrender that lightly.

But what happens when tenants lose their jobs or just won't pay the rent because they are hard up?

It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

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Well I guess if it gets THAT bad PM's won't help much either as people could not afford to buy them and gold shops etc. would go bust - I take your points though but I have a couple of properties in UK and half dozen here giving me my monthly 'income'. I do keep a bit of fiat and a bit of Au (but just sold 75% of it as I fear a downward spiral at some point to 1500). let's face it - there is NO protection and the only people who will thrive are those with huge stock piles of rice and water etc. in some secure facility but I just can't see it getting that bad... (he say's hopefully).

PS if PM's went down lower than 1500 I would 'top up' of course - who knows?

The important point here is that it is your property which is generating a regular monthly income (dividend). Do not surrender that lightly.

But what happens when tenants lose their jobs or just won't pay the rent because they are hard up?

Oh you mean like what is happening all over California? When that happens you stop getting your dividends and good luck kicking them out easily with the current renters rights.

And there is also the situation of what happens when the landlord himself or herself gets into financial trouble and the property risks being foreclosed?

In fact many lawyers have advised tenants to stay put but to not pay the rent under those circumstances.

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It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

True that. The old story of location, location, location.

However there are plenty financing their residence in Thailand with the rental of their houses/apartments in the UK or the US.

To suggest that they should give up that income for a bag of coins would not get many takers.

The risk of tenancy is a managed risk for most.

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It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

True that. The old story of location, location, location.

However there are plenty financing their residence in Thailand with the rental of their houses/apartments in the UK or the US.

To suggest that they should give up that income for a bag of coins would not get many takers.

The risk of tenancy is a managed risk for most.

exactly! I have two small houses in the UK and some condos here - both generating about the same income - can't see it ALL crashing and can't see any wisdom in selling and buying PM's in fact I just sold most of my Au to buy another property which will give me (as per normal) 7/8% net

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It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

True that. The old story of location, location, location.

However there are plenty financing their residence in Thailand with the rental of their houses/apartments in the UK or the US.

To suggest that they should give up that income for a bag of coins would not get many takers.

The risk of tenancy is a managed risk for most.

exactly! I have two small houses in the UK and some condos here - both generating about the same income - can't see it ALL crashing and can't see any wisdom in selling and buying PM's in fact I just sold most of my Au to buy another property which will give me (as per normal) 7/8% net

but you can't deny the risk of chaos is growing ?i mean every country that matters

seems to be stretched like an elastic band in terms of debt and something

has to give sooner or later ?

I can see a very nasty war in the middle east having a domino effect on the global financial system

or the other way around... I cant decide which will come first. But every day i feel more and more we

are walking on egg shells .....

Edited by khaan
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It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

True that. The old story of location, location, location.

However there are plenty financing their residence in Thailand with the rental of their houses/apartments in the UK or the US.

To suggest that they should give up that income for a bag of coins would not get many takers.

The risk of tenancy is a managed risk for most.

exactly! I have two small houses in the UK and some condos here - both generating about the same income - can't see it ALL crashing and can't see any wisdom in selling and buying PM's in fact I just sold most of my Au to buy another property which will give me (as per normal) 7/8% net

but you can't deny the risk of chaos is growing ?i mean every country that matters

seems to be stretched like an elastic band in terms of debt and something

has to give sooner or later ?

I can see a very nasty war in the middle east having a domino effect on the global financial system

or the other way around... I cant decide which will come first. But every day i feel more and more we

are walking on egg shells .....

crystal balls time.

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It is a very difficult equation .. even in London .. say Canary Wharf .. There is a lot of supply and demand especially with the Olympics .. but what happens after .. with increased supply and perhaps job losses in the city ...

If you have a property in a prime location .. OK .. but prime locations do not come cheap . so few can afford ...

and if ones property is not rented then expenses can really hurt ..insurance , local taxes , interest , management etc ..

Just locally Samui has quite a good market for modern well located properties for holiday or long term rentals .. but there is a lot of older property for rent where the market is more challenging ..

True that. The old story of location, location, location.

However there are plenty financing their residence in Thailand with the rental of their houses/apartments in the UK or the US.

To suggest that they should give up that income for a bag of coins would not get many takers.

The risk of tenancy is a managed risk for most.

exactly! I have two small houses in the UK and some condos here - both generating about the same income - can't see it ALL crashing and can't see any wisdom in selling and buying PM's in fact I just sold most of my Au to buy another property which will give me (as per normal) 7/8% net

but you can't deny the risk of chaos is growing ?i mean every country that matters

seems to be stretched like an elastic band in terms of debt and something

has to give sooner or later ?

I can see a very nasty war in the middle east having a domino effect on the global financial system

or the other way around... I cant decide which will come first. But every day i feel more and more we

are walking on egg shells .....

yes I get that feeling too - but what to do? buy Gold? water? guns? IF it happens we are all f***ed and no amount of Gold will help - well maybe in the VERY short term (if you can stop people stealing it) and if it's in an EFT I really believe the governments might steal it anyhow (or the company that holds it). IF the middle east blows up then we might start to get really worried the Mayans were right!!! w00t.gif

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This no artificial "propping". "support for gold price" - being actual reasoned support from real physical demand ie bullion and central banks purchasing; opposed to artificial suppression from the often discussed paper tricks.

To me it reads more like evidence of why the gold price was / is actively suppressed; ie to give the banks etc a good buy price + time to get hold of all the tax payers money and handouts, paper creation swapped to real physical assets.

When they turn off the flood and trickery of paper representatives of physical then price shoots up leaving them with massive value reserves of gold- while currencies crash- gov debt and bank debt etc correspondingly is basically wiped out/ cleared since the currency value compared to the new value of gold is tiny. Only the public who get screwed short term as inflation explodes.

This is the plan I think, in a managed way- perhapse over 5-10years, and can be seen in the recent moves to reintroduce gold as a tier 1 asset and the endless QE.

How else will these mountains of debt be dealt with?

Default is unthinkable for the likes of USA and Britain. Too proud by far.

Another point from the article is the jewlrey market has dropped off, replaced by bullion. So if situation were to stabilise and jewlry picked up that's even more bullish for gold since the bullion part isn't going away since its now become a tier 1 asset and only just the start of diversification from fiat reserves. This mass move out of fiat will also add to the continued drop in value of the major currencies.

Edited by mccw
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I am an amateur fraudster. Please send me your gold. I will then conduct various experiments on the gold and let you know where it is going in this market. Please note I charge flat rate 2 % of all gold analysed.

Please pm me if interested.

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