Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[mccw]

As it's the start of a new major wave cycle it's too soon to determine.

Does it apply to silver as well? And if so should external factors such as those discussed here take a secondary role to the theory of the wave?

Macleod states that massive amounts of physical gold and silver have been flowing to Asia, and that the latest bank participation report indicates massive problems are brewing for the banksters in the COMEX silver market. With cartel shorts near a record at just under 300 million net ounces, yet with the silver price substantially lower than the 2011 high, Macleod believes that we are quite likely to have a failure on COMEX and in the silver market in particular.

http://www.silverdoc...-silver-market/

"Macleod believes"...

There has been stories like this since years already and the "imminent" has obviously not materialised. But it's a scenario like this which will happen at some point on this road of crises. I will be more shocked if the "paper" and physical market holds together than if. It were to break; in this system shift I think it's an enevitable step. Just question of next year or 5 or 10years down the line.

[mccw]

When I was searching about wave things I came across this:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug12/self-destruct8-12.html

Ill say I very much agree with him.

[mccw]

When I was searching about wave things I came across this:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug12/self-destruct8-12.html

All about timing.

I've bought my plans forward; moving in February. Thinking to liquidate through auction the prime house in UK before currency is further devalued and market turns for the worse.

Edited December 26, 2012 by mccw

[Naam]

"Macleod believes"...

There has been stories like this since years already and the "imminent" has obviously not materialised. But it's a scenario like this which will happen at some point on this road of crises. I will be more shocked if the "paper" and physical market holds together than if. It were to break; in this system shift I think it's an enevitable step. Just question of next year or 5 or 10years down the line.

i always liked precise forecast such as yours.

[Jayman]

If you want some basic explanation of what Elliot Wave is about

http://www.elliottwave.com/introduction/elliott_wave_principle.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

[mccw]

As it's the start of a new major wave cycle it's too soon to determine.

This guy Wu said by wave going down to 1340:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-dips-focus-u-budget-140619961.html

[Naam]

As it's the start of a new major wave cycle it's too soon to determine.

This guy Wu said by wave going down to 1340:

http://uk.finance.ya...-140619961.html

good news for all those "i'm just waiting for a dip to buy more."

[mccw]

As it's the start of a new major wave cycle it's too soon to determine.

This guy Wu said by wave going down to 1340:

http://uk.finance.ya...-140619961.html

good news for all those "i'm just waiting for a dip to buy more."

Nice time to buy before it explodes to 11,000 dollarsan once:

[mccw]

This is old news but I hadn't heard about it before:

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My+Money/Story/A1Story20120220-329045.html

[mccw]

This is old news but I hadn't heard about it before:

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My+Money/Story/A1Story20120220-329045.html

I guess this is what lead gold money and a googles sees a few others doing this too.

Anyone experience of them? I like the liquid from a silver side as I wonder if any big event/ massive moves higher in Thailand would these bead Jewry trades people still be buying if it back?

This is old news but I hadn't heard about it before:

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My+Money/Story/A1Story20120220-329045.html

I guess this is what lead gold money and a googles sees a few others doing this too.

Anyone experience of them? I like the liquid from a silver side as I wonder if any big event/ massive moves higher in Thailand would these bead Jewry trades people still be buying if it back? Although I suppose they could still sell it on out to refiners on another country even if local SME production isn't wanting it.

Edited December 28, 2012 by mccw

[Naam]

I guess this is what lead gold money and a googles sees a few others doing this too.

Anyone experience of them? I like the liquid from a silver side as I wonder if any big event/ massive moves higher in Thailand would these bead Jewry trades people still be buying if it back? Although I suppose they could still sell it on out to refiners on another country even if local SME production isn't wanting it.

¿¿¿ ???

[mccw]

I guess this is what lead gold money and a googles sees a few others doing this too.

Anyone experience of them? I like the liquid from a silver side as I wonder if any big event/ massive moves higher in Thailand would these bead Jewry trades people still be buying if it back? Although I suppose they could still sell it on out to refiners on another country even if local SME production isn't wanting it.

¿¿¿ ???

I mean if there was a currency collapse type scenario and the price of silver were 5 or 10 times higher then the demand from the jewlary trade might not hardly exist, so would the silver beads that are traded in Thailand (primarily for the jewlary trade) still be easily liquidated? Perhapse not so easily as an investment bullion grade at a facility like the goldmoney one in Singapore. But then I don't think i'd trust anything not on my hands really in such a scenario.

[Naam]

easily liquidated?

a valid point!

[bartender100]

Saw this today.

Lesson # 1:

* U.S. Tax revenue: $ 2,470,000,000,000

* Fed budget: $ 3,620,000,000,000

* New debt: $ 1,150,000,000,000

* National debt: $ 16,271,000,000,000

* Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000

Let’s now remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:

* Annual family income: $ 24,700.00

* Money the family spent: $ 36,200.00

* New debt on the credit card: $ 11,500.00

* Outstanding balance on the credit card: $ 161,710.00

* Total budget cuts so far: $ 38.50

[mccw]

Saw this today.

Lesson # 1:

* U.S. Tax revenue: $ 2,470,000,000,000

* Fed budget: $ 3,620,000,000,000

* New debt: $ 1,150,000,000,000

* National debt: $ 16,271,000,000,000

* Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000

Let’s now remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:

* Annual family income: $ 24,700.00

* Money the family spent: $ 36,200.00

* New debt on the credit card: $ 11,500.00

* Outstanding balance on the credit card: $ 161,710.00

* Total budget cuts so far: $ 38.50

Yes; and the terrible fiscal cliff that no one wants to implement because it would be disastrous for the economy would ....mean .... 620 billion saved = 6,200 dollars compared to the 11,500 needed to balance the budget let alone even start to reduce the debt.

If they really tried to tackle the deb the economy would shrink so much they could never achieve the tax revenues needed.

[mania]

They once had a interactive deal on the web

It was called something like

"How would you balance the budget?"

They gave you all these choices.

You could cut this or that increase taxes etc.

Well it was amazing how easy it was to balance.

The main culprit was of course the wars & military spending

Cut some foreign aid to those who do not really need it anyway

along with the suits not sticking to their own yearly budgets.

Edited December 28, 2012 by mania

[yoshiwara]

Let’s now remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:

Pretend is the operative word.

[churchill]

With all the Fed activity, there has been no QE in 2012

http://soberlook.com/2012/12/with-all-fed-activity-there-has-been-no.html

[Naam]

With all the Fed activity, there has been no QE in 2012

http://soberlook.com...as-been-no.html

By definition, any policy of "quantitative easing" involves the expansion of bank reserves (by outright purchases of securities) and ultimately the monetary base.

incorrect statement. quantitative easing by the FED buying UST does not increase the monetary base.

[mccw]

They once had a interactive deal on the web

It was called something like

"How would you balance the budget?"

They gave you all these choices.

You could cut this or that increase taxes etc.

Well it was amazing how easy it was to balance.

The main culprit was of course the wars & military spending

Cut some foreign aid to those who do not really need it anyway

along with the suits not sticking to their own yearly budgets.

I would like to see that. I expect it is not so simple as that as can be seen in EU when start cutting back the tax revenues fall and deficit bigger; catch 22/ death spiral.

[churchill]

Much discussed previously but will Gold becoming a Tier 1 asset , from tomorrow , boost is appeal to banks .....I would have thought so , not all agree .. Naam & co .

see .. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1082071-basel-iii-a-game-changer-for-both-gold-and-faux-aaa-aa-sovereign-debt?source=kizur

and from the FT .. 'Moreover, the annual rebalancing of the weightings of different commodities held by index investors was this year likely to result in gold purchases, they said.'

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02dfdf92-50e5-11e2-9623-00144feab49a.html#axzz2GcTw384w

Gold for 2012 plus or minus ....

[churchill]

Bill Gross ... 'Gross wrote today in thepost: “2013 Fearless Forecasts: 1) Stocks & bonds return less than 5%. 2) Unemployment stays at 7.5% or higher 3) Gold goes up.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-30/pimco-s-gross-sees-less-return-stubborn-unemployment.html

[binjalin]

so? 2013 Gold high and low predictions?

[Naam]

Much discussed previously but will Gold becoming a Tier 1 asset , from tomorrow , boost is appeal to banks .....I would have thought so , not all agree .. Naam & co .

see .. http://seekingalpha....bt?source=kizur

and from the FT .. 'Moreover, the annual rebalancing of the weightings of different commodities held by index investors was this year likely to result in gold purchases, they said.'

http://www.ft.com/in...l#axzz2GcTw384w

Gold for 2012 plus or minus ....

]If [/b]the Basel Committee decides to grant gold a favourable liquidity profile under its proposed Basel III framework, it will...

There is a strong chance that this liquidity definition for gold may be changed.

The World Gold Council has in fact been lobbying the Basel Committee, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC on this issue as far back as 2009...

The only hint we've heard thus far has come from the World Gold Council itself, which suggested in an April 2012 research paper, and re-iterated on a recent conference call, that gold will be given a 15% liquidity "haircut", but we have not been able to confirm this with either the Basel Committee or the FDIC."

The BIS uses the term "national discretion," which I interpret as...

It could look like what Graham Smith

a pricking of the faux-rated bond bubble and a new bubble in gold.

signed:

seeking omega

[Naam]

no commodity that fluctuates in price can replace any Tier1 core capital. not based on Basel III nor based on Basel XXXIII½

period!

Edited December 31, 2012 by Naam

[churchill]

no commodity that fluctuates in price can replace any Tier1 core capital. not based on Basel III nor based on Basel XXXIII½

period!

How does Tier 1 capital not fluctuate ?

[churchill]

this from WGC

'Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the International Organisation of Securities Commission’s (IOSCO) issued joint global draft recommendations on what collateral should be permissible for non- centrally cleared OTC derivates, gold was again included.

The EBA will need to report to the European Commission by 30 June 2013 which assets can be included in the liquidity buffer and what haircuts should be applied. Based on this report, the Commission will draft an implementing act that introduces the liquidity buffers by 30 June 2014. This act should enter into force by 1 January 2015, by which date – provided gold is also included in the final act

– banks will be able to hold gold to meet their liquidity requirements.'

http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alch6708connelly.pdf

[churchill]

Trying to understand it ... interesting comment from http://www.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=144&tid=12416130&showall=1

'I suppose, since this Basel/BIS is to be UN-like, in that all parties must finalize their rules, then the consolidated national bank efforts would at once go into effect, rather than in a staggered fashion, or say, an individual nation choosing to move forward with their reset on gold as an asset class to Tier I.

But what is to stop these nations that are not dragging their feet, and having already voted with their assets to de facto upgrade bullion as an asset class to Tier I, with their purchases and their public announcements thereof, what is to stop them from saying, 'We now allow our banks to classify gold bullion holdings at Tier I status'? And thus let the laggards simply drag it out while the majority of the world's population now recognizes Gold as Tier I?

From article: ". The BIS uses the term “national discretion,” which I interpret as giving Basel III national supervisors a choice or an option on the matter. The document clearly states that actual bullion (not paper derivatives) can be treated as cash and therefore risk weighted at 0% at the discretion of the national supervisors."

[Naam]

this from WGC

'Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the International Organisation of Securities Commission’s (IOSCO) issued joint global draft recommendations on what collateral should be permissible for non- centrally cleared OTC derivates, gold was again included.

The EBA will need to report to the European Commission by 30 June 2013 which assets can be included in the liquidity buffer and what haircuts should be applied. Based on this report, the Commission will draft an implementing act that introduces the liquidity buffers by 30 June 2014. This act should enter into force by 1 January 2015, by which date – provided gold is also included in the final act

– banks will be able to hold gold to meet their liquidity requirements.'

http://www.lbma.org....708connelly.pdf

as far as gold is concerned there are lies, dàmn lies, statistics and

remarks from the World Gold Council as well as from

LBMA (London Bullion Market Association).

These negotiations

are expected to end in early September 2012,

enabling the European Parliament to formally

vote on the proposals in plenary in the week of

22 October. We expect gold to remain explicitly

mentioned in the text and for EBA to be tasked

with considering gold’s suitability.

today is "explicitly" dec 31

Global policy makers are increasingly

recognising new financial uses for gold.

Last year, the European Parliament voted

unanimously to include gold as a form of

highly liquid collateral in the European Market

Infrastructure Regulation.

dàmn lie! here's the beef:

"Last week, [may 2011] the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs agreed to allow central counterparties to accept gold as collateral. Once ratified, we would see gold redefined as a highly liquid asset under the Capital Requirements IV Directive, due in June from the European Commission."

[mccw]

Thailand implements Basel 111

http://www.visetkaew.com/wp/2012/12/24/thai-banks-will-adopt-basel-iii-rules/

Philippines on the way:

http://risk.net/asia-risk/feature/2230588/early-adopter-philippines-set-to-introduce-basel-iii-by-start2014

ASEAN + china will probably adopt basel 11 in full and trade / count gold at 100% value without waiting for the basket cases in the west. The Middle East, Russia and South America will follow suite. It doesn't matter what JP or GS say to block the western adoption , it will happen anyway. The doubling or tripling of many central banks gold reserves is well documented- I am sure they will want to count thier reserves at 100% value.

Gold price fluctuates and so do currencies, but gold can't be printed in the billions like dollars , euros, yen, etc, so obviously Central bankers in the creditor nations can see this and will favour gold, where as debtor nations will resist it, but fail, because they want to be able to print thier way out of debt.