Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units

[Bizz]

What I am trying to avoid though is finding out in 20 years that had I purchased 10 years earlier, I could have saved so much more money because prices have increased 50 times. I'm not saying that will happen, but I know from my experience in the US that property in certain areas has gone up dramatically within the last 20 years.

But with great respect donx, can't you see what has happened? How could property " increase 50 times "

now when so much money ( that arguably wasn't meant to be there in the first place -but was swishing around

the system ) gone ? You only have to look at the increasing disparity between peoples incomes -look at

the trends. Last week American Express Co. announced not only retrenchments- but salary

REDUCTIONS ................

I understand the situation today. What I am asking about is when will there be a bottom - a golden opportunity to buy in the future. Surely with all this talk of a Thai market crisis there will come a time when the crisis is over and prices will increase many times over once again.

prices will increase many times over once again

History has shown this to be very true.

As I see it and reading between the lines there is those who would love to buy a 10mil condo for 5 mil

In the hope of talking it down.

Those in the know and I mean those who understand Thai Culture and Thai common sense or lack of, see the true picture.

Lock it up and leave it and wait.

To a lot of Farangs this does not make sense. Why should they be losing money by not renting or dropping the price? Are they mad crazy?

No if you wait long enough you will buy at my price?

That is the reasoning.

In the mean time they have possibly lost maybe 20-40% revenue by either not renting or selling.

We farangs cannot fadom this but then we are farang and they are Thai.

Sometimes we cannot see the wood from the trees

OH MY FACE HURT’S or did I mean losing face.

[bingobongo]

the denial among bagholders on this thread never ceases to amaze.......so what is the solution? to build more of course

Thai Land & Houses Q3 net profit falls, below f'casts

Thailand's biggest housing firm, Land & Houses LH.BK, reported a larger-than-expected 27 percent fall in third quarter earnings on Friday due to weaker sales in a slowing domestic economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBAK00054520081107

[glyph]

The fact you and your followers do not have long term investment plans are reflected in your emotional postings. You invest depending upon the articles that you find on a dialy basis. No wonder you are so upset. You believed that investing in Viet Nam real estate was a "smart" move...and thne that market collapsed 4 months later. I guess that your crystal ball is a common rock. Regardless, your belief that a real estate developer's short-term earnings fall is an indicator that the Thailand real estate market is collapsing is yet another excuse not to buy your boyfriend a home.

[midas]

The fact you and your followers do not have long term investment plans are reflected in your emotional postings. You invest depending upon the articles that you find on a dialy basis. No wonder you are so upset. You believed that investing in Viet Nam real estate was a "smart" move...and thne that market collapsed 4 months later. I guess that your crystal ball is a common rock. Regardless, your belief that a real estate developer's short-term earnings fall is an indicator that the Thailand real estate market is collapsing is yet another excuse not to buy your boyfriend a home.

That is a joke ! Your postings are even more emotional - as if your life depends on it that the Thai

property market cannot possibly be perceived to be weaking .........I wonder why ................?

Maybe your income depends on it. ........................ anyway who cares.................all will be revealed in time

and your ridiculous assurances of the strength of the market ( only in your mind )will still be here for people to read

Edited November 8, 2008 by midas

[cclub75]

Regardless, your belief that a real estate developer's short-term earnings fall is an indicator that the Thailand real estate market is collapsing is yet another excuse not to buy your boyfriend a home.

... or girlfriend.

Lapsus ?

[bingobongo]

glyph glyph glyph, you silly wonk

just becasue you are too lazy (or too deep in denial) to manage your finances on a regular basis (by the "long term investing" comment you made) don't hate the rest of us for beforehand seeing the mess that has come to pass

i think you missed class, so i will post this again, i know where you are on this curve and it begis with the letter "D". notice the phrase in the upper right corner as well " Temporary setback - I'm a long term investor", sounds just like you doesnt it glyph? good luck, you are going to need it

Edited November 8, 2008 by bingobongo

[donx]

glyph glyph glyph, you silly wonk

just becasue you are too lazy (or too deep in denial) to manage your finances on a regular basis (by the "long term investing" comment you made) don't hate the rest of us for beforehand seeing the mess that has come to pass

i think you missed class, so i will post this again, i know where you are on this curve and it begis with the letter "D". notice the phrase in the upper right corner as well " Temporary setback - I'm a long term investor", sounds just like you doesnt it glyph? good luck, you are going to need it

And you bingobongo have been stuck between "Anxiety" and "Panic" ever since you started posting this silly bio-rythmic-esque trend-line back in eary 2007.

[Zombienation]

Great time to buy? I wish! I think the prices need to start falling first. That's what I'm waiting for, but TIT, so who knows what will happen.

[glyph]

"I think the prices need to start falling first. That's what I'm waiting for..."

As is bingobongo, and he has been wrong for years!

bingobongo, a long-term plan does not mean ignoring what is happening. It means that you keep a long-term outlook, rather than a short-term one. You're trying to run a marathon by looking at your feet. You have just enough time to avoid a pothole, every once in a while. But, more than likely, you get yourself tripped up...as you did when you recommended that "smart" investors should invest in Viet Nam real estate - only to have that market collapse a few months later.

Rather than look at your feet, you should keep your eyes on the horizon. You can see the potholes, and the opportunities... before you step into the holes, or miss the opportunities.

Edited November 9, 2008 by glyph

[fidelio]

"I think the prices need to start falling first. That's what I'm waiting for..."

As is bingobongo, and he has been wrong for years!

bingobongo, a long-term plan does not mean ignoring what is happening. It means that you keep a long-term outlook, rather than a short-term one. You're trying to run a marathon by looking at your feet. You have just enough time to avoid a pothole, every once in a while. But, more than likely, you get yourself tripped up...as you did when you recommended that "smart" investors should invest in Viet Nam real estate - only to have that market collapse a few months later.

Rather than look at your feet, you should keep your eyes on the horizon. You can see the potholes, and the opportunities... before you step into the holes, or miss the opportunities.

You are a seasoned idiot.

[midas]

"I think the prices need to start falling first. That's what I'm waiting for..."

As is bingobongo, and he has been wrong for years!

bingobongo, a long-term plan does not mean ignoring what is happening. It means that you keep a long-term outlook, rather than a short-term one. You're trying to run a marathon by looking at your feet. You have just enough time to avoid a pothole, every once in a while. But, more than likely, you get yourself tripped up...as you did when you recommended that "smart" investors should invest in Viet Nam real estate - only to have that market collapse a few months later.

Rather than look at your feet, you should keep your eyes on the horizon. You can see the potholes, and the opportunities... before you step into the holes, or miss the opportunities.

Hey glyph ! Keeping a long-term outlook means looking ahead but you keep looking back because you keep

harping on about the Vietnam property market. Who cares about Vietnam?

We are now experiencing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression (according to

Alan Greenspan and many others more knowledgeable than you or I ) so looking ahead I think

there are many reasons to be ultra cautious

[MJP]

"I think the prices need to start falling first. That's what I'm waiting for..."

As is bingobongo, and he has been wrong for years!

bingobongo, a long-term plan does not mean ignoring what is happening. It means that you keep a long-term outlook, rather than a short-term one. You're trying to run a marathon by looking at your feet. You have just enough time to avoid a pothole, every once in a while. But, more than likely, you get yourself tripped up...as you did when you recommended that "smart" investors should invest in Viet Nam real estate - only to have that market collapse a few months later.

Rather than look at your feet, you should keep your eyes on the horizon. You can see the potholes, and the opportunities... before you step into the holes, or miss the opportunities.

Hey glyph ! Keeping a long-term outlook means looking ahead but you keep looking back because you keep

harping on about the Vietnam property market. Who cares about Vietnam?

We are now experiencing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression (according to

Alan Greenspan and many others more knowledgeable than you or I ) so looking ahead I think

there are many reasons to be ultra cautious

Midas,

You are quite correct in what you say.

If you so require, I can bring many reinforcements. Around 20,000!

[midas]

Midas,

You are quite correct in what you say.

If you so require, I can bring many reinforcements. Around 20,000!

MJP thank you very much for your generous offer ! I don't need reinforcements for glyph- he is quite inconsequential !

I simply have to respond to these people on this board

who for one reason other post absolute garbage about the resilience and strength of the Thai property market

no matter what is happening ! Why cant people be objective -take yourself for example - obviously you are

a successful real estate investor and yet this does not prevent you from commenting objectively regarding

the current state of the market and the immediate prospects ! Good on you

[MJP]

Midas,

You are quite correct in what you say.

If you so require, I can bring many reinforcements. Around 20,000!

MJP thank you very much for your generous offer ! I don't need reinforcements for glyph- he is quite inconsequential !

I simply have to respond to these people on this board

who for one reason other post absolute garbage about the resilience and strength of the Thai property market

no matter what is happening ! Why cant people be objective -take yourself for example - obviously you are

a successful real estate investor and yet this does not prevent you from commenting objectively regarding

the current state of the market and the immediate prospects ! Good on you

I'm afraid 'successful real estate investor' is probably an accolade a little too far old chap.

Everything I buy, be it land, houses, motorcars, washing machines, windows, anything, gets written down to zero (especially in Thailand). I still run the 'mark-to-model' capital asset system, only my model says 'once you've spent it, it's gone fella!', particularly in the Land of the Smiles.

The land and houses I have have all been for 'own use', rather than investments.

Land happens to be my business in the UK and now across Asia, but rather cleaning it up than dealing in the stuff.

Edited November 9, 2008 by MJP

[bingobongo]

hello bagholders.........

Thailand's condominium market feels effects of global economic slowdown

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp.../388841/1/.html

[midas]

Industry leaders said finding buyers is not the problem. They said that in this economic climate, finding the capital to underwrite new building projects is the real challenge.

Property developers like Raimon Land are naturally concerned about what lies ahead. But they said their prime locations in Bangkok and beyond will help them.

Said Nigel Cornick, CEO of Raimon Land: "We are thinking we will probably be in for a tough period along with other Asian countries. To some extent, we're seeing it with the banking sector and credit controls being stricter."

hey Lenny W and glyph .......take note

[glyph]

If I had a pen, I wouldn't even consider writing it down.

I bought a condo almost 5 years ago, and couldn't be happier.

[LennyW]

Industry leaders said finding buyers is not the problem. They said that in this economic climate, finding the capital to underwrite new building projects is the real challenge.

Property developers like Raimon Land are naturally concerned about what lies ahead. But they said their prime locations in Bangkok and beyond will help them.

Said Nigel Cornick, CEO of Raimon Land: "We are thinking we will probably be in for a tough period along with other Asian countries. To some extent, we're seeing it with the banking sector and credit controls being stricter."

hey Lenny W and glyph .......take note

Funny that, when Raimon land or any other big developer says positive things about the real estate market we are told by the nae sayers on this forum it is "hype" "puff piece" or "Developer BS" , yet they now have some negative outlook from the same people and we are supposed to "Take note" Jeeez!

Edited November 11, 2008 by LennyW

[Pakboong]

Industry leaders said finding buyers is not the problem. They said that in this economic climate, finding the capital to underwrite new building projects is the real challenge.

Property developers like Raimon Land are naturally concerned about what lies ahead. But they said their prime locations in Bangkok and beyond will help them.

Said Nigel Cornick, CEO of Raimon Land: "We are thinking we will probably be in for a tough period along with other Asian countries. To some extent, we're seeing it with the banking sector and credit controls being stricter."

hey Lenny W and glyph .......take note

Funny that, when Raimon land or any other big developer says positive things about the real estate market we are told by the nae sayers on this forum it is "hype" "puff piece" or "Developer BS" , yet they now have some negative outlook from the same people and we are supposed to "Take note" Jeeez!

If anything negative ever comes out of that segment of the industry, it is definitely time to take note.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Pakboong

[bingobongo]

the stupid and the delusional deserve to be separated from their money...........

Banks tighten up project financing and mortgages.

Homebuyers warned to investigate developers' ability to deliver their products.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/13/business/business_30088265.php

[pkrv]

Industry leaders said finding buyers is not the problem. They said that in this economic climate, finding the capital to underwrite new building projects is the real challenge.

Property developers like Raimon Land are naturally concerned about what lies ahead. But they said their prime locations in Bangkok and beyond will help them.

Said Nigel Cornick, CEO of Raimon Land: "We are thinking we will probably be in for a tough period along with other Asian countries. To some extent, we're seeing it with the banking sector and credit controls being stricter."

hey Lenny W and glyph .......take note

Funny that, when Raimon land or any other big developer says positive things about the real estate market we are told by the nae sayers on this forum it is "hype" "puff piece" or "Developer BS" , yet they now have some negative outlook from the same people and we are supposed to "Take note" Jeeez!

If anything negative ever comes out of that segment of the industry, it is definitely time to take note.

OK I think there is a lot of confusion here, and please don't be put out because until recently I too did not realise how finance works.

Do any of you guys know about the 'Fractional Reserve System (FRS)' don't be embarrassed if you don't neither did I, and I worked in Financial Markets globally responsible for some of the products that conduct world trade (Reuters).

Essentially if you go to any bank anywhere in the world and ask for a mortgage of say 100,000. That money is not given to you from the bank's reserves or others savings. Instead it is conjured into existence and written into your account; this is why the money pool continuously grows. Essentially the only thing of value in the transaction is your commitment to repay, and the bank gets to charge interest on money it does not actually have. Staggering isn't it? Please take a look at this very informative 'film' the guy goes into much more detail and explains how this came about. He has his own thoughts part way through but it is worth watching to the end (45 minutes).

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

The FRS generates something like 95% of all cash in circulation and it is a system designed to grow, and grow it does, but exponentially. Not good news.

A paradox -The FRS actually breaks down if people do not borrow money. So if you are informed that there is a credit crunch actually people are talking crap! What they are really saying is that credit worthy people are no longer borrowing hence the subprime market – you have to lend to someone to create the money in everybody's pocket. Just as an anecdote my dad (long retired) walked into a bank the other day just to do bank stuff and was immediately offered a loan by a sheepish person behind the till saying you probably don't need this but I can lend you 50k GBP. My dad just laughed.

The point here is that the system cannot cope with an aging population – most people are actually quite good with money and seek to ensure that they do not enter retirement in debt because their income stream is 'somewhat diminished'.

Now if I am correct in my analysis and please crucify me if I am wrong (no one has done so on the finance forum so far including naam)

The subprime market was most probably 'invoked' solely to keep the FRS going for vested interests – our money was effectively deliberately blown.

Because we are an aging population many of us have shrugged off debt and as such FRS is well and truly screwed.

But more importantly it also indicates that people have money/assets.

Now some say cash is king – true, but only to a point. Interest rates are collapsing and inflation is accelerating, cash will rapidly become worthless, and I have a thread on this on the finance forum. And by the way this is also contributing the the current crisis your not meant to have cash your meant to have debt otherwise you screw the FRS

Today I do need cash reserves to live on, but if I still had substantial cash reserves I would be pooing my pants at this time, where would I park it? Well I have already put my money where my mouth is and IMO done OK – I do not doubt for one moment many others (with money and there are a lot of them) will come to the same conclusion . However they will probably look to the secondary market and contrary to popular belief there is one in Thailand.

Please give me hel_l because I hope that I am not correct – otherwise things will become very ugly indeed.

Sorry something I do not often do, I have reposted - There is not a credit crunch these people are talking <deleted>. There are simply now only uncredit worthy individuals/suppliers. The Fractional Reserve System used globally to produce our monetary system requires generating exponential amounts of credit to create the ever increasing amount of money in our pocket. No credit no money full stop. After watching the 'film' please crusify me if I am wrong, because I can only hope I am.

Edited November 13, 2008 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

delusion is not based in reality..........come back to reality pkrv

anyway.....it says that despite drop in sales, prices have climbed 6.8%, but with inflation running at 10%+, that is actually a loss in real terms...........and with the BOT about to start cutting rates, and the baht to devalue that will more than knock out the 6.8% phantom price increase.....enjoy bagholders

CONDO OUTLOOK

Substantial drop in condo construction and sales during the third quarter

There has been a substantial drop in the number of condominium units being built and sold in Bangkok.

As well as the drop in units under offer, the number of units sold in the third quarฌter was 32.2 per cent down on sales in the first quarter of this year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/14...ss_30088380.php

[cclub75]

ThaiCrisis made a chart about supply (condos registrations), since 2001 per quarter.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/11/15...er-over-supply/

The market is healthy. And the hit music is "Gimme more" from Britney Spears.

[midas]

ThaiCrisis made a chart about supply (condos registrations), since 2001 per quarter.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/11/15...er-over-supply/

The market is healthy. And the hit music is "Gimme more" from Britney Spears.

I could not think of a worse time to be the owner of an existing condominium

because these people could now be saddled with a very illiquid asset.

We know that few Thai's are enthusiastic about buying second hand condos

for a variety of cultural reasons and the farang buyers came mostly from

USA, the Eurozone and Australia and we all know how they been affected

[midas]

ThaiCrisis made a chart about supply (condos registrations), since 2001 per quarter.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/11/15...er-over-supply/

The market is healthy. And the hit music is "Gimme more" from Britney Spears.

I just saw the graph .................INCREDIBLE ! These people have learnt nothing

from 1997 ....................This time it is going to be spectacular...........maybe

prices will go down this time

[richm7]

[/b]

I would say collecting a rent whilst retaining the assets was pretty smart??

Hey Lenny - maybe it is not so smart if the world experiences a long period

of DEFLATION ? USA talking now of 0% interest rates - Japan

now at 0.25% - where do we go from there ?

The longer you can collect a rent on your asset the better!!

Lets say - you have a 5 M Bt asset rented out at 35,000 Bt / month, over a 5 year (long period) term you will have written down your asset to 2.9 M Bt, so even if you sell at the same price it cost 5 M Bt, (highly unlikely on a property), you will still have made a profit of 2.1M Bt.

Thats 8.4% ROI per annum, better than you will get with any bank meantime!

Not banks I agree - but you could use that money

more profitably by picking the right times and short selling in the stock market

from time to time ! And you also have the hassle of an illiquid " asset " in

particular in the times we have ahead.............

What is all this crap about short selling? You write as if it is a no brainer that anyone can make money on rather than a very risky gamble which it in truth really is. Ask the smart alecks who just got burned by the Porsche buy out of VW.

If it is so easy to make money short selling perhaps you would be kind enough to give us all a few tips. Next week's winning lottery numbers would be nice too.

[midas]

If it is so easy to make money short selling perhaps you would be kind enough to give us all a few tips. Next week's winning lottery numbers would be nice too.

with all due respects it took me a lot of hard work to learn this technique.What

possible motive have i got for sharing this in a public forum . But a clue for you-

" the sheeple " mostly think and behave in a certain way - it is human nature

for them to do so - you just have to counteract that

[Crash999]

I could not think of a worse time to be the owner of an existing condominium because these people could now be saddled with a very illiquid asset.

Hmm... considering how far equities have fallen in the past 6 months someone who bought a condo 6 months ago shouldn't be too unhappy.

[midas]

I could not think of a worse time to be the owner of an existing condominium because these people could now be saddled with a very illiquid asset.

Hmm... considering how far equities have fallen in the past 6 months someone who bought a condo 6 months ago shouldn't be too unhappy.

I agree with you completely! Falling equities ( and Put options ) at just the right times over the last

six to eight weeks have made me very good money.

now that money is in cash unlike a sitting duck with a Bangkok second hand condominium

around my neck The problem is what storm clouds are gathering - looks very stormy on the horizon........................

Edited November 16, 2008 by midas

[Crash999]

I agree with you completely! Falling equities ( and Put options ) at just the right times over the last six to eight weeks have made me very good money.

now that money is in cash unlike a sitting duck with a Bangkok second hand condominium

around my neck The problem is what storm clouds are gathering - looks very stormy on the horizon........................

You must have a big pair of cojones as these days the markets could just as easily climb by 20% as drop depending on which way the wind blows.

I don't see any big drop happening with the Bangkok real estate market prices- only fewer transactions. Back 10 years ago (which to me had a far bigger impact on Thailand than anything happening today) there were a lot of people ready with cash to scoop up properties sold off at firesale prices... and not much happened aside from some auctions of Ssongyangs and whatnot.

If anything I think like that time it'll be flat for several years with developments here and there halted. Anyhow, the top tier stuff still keeps plowing on regardless of the latest market conditions.