Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Cheers Guys.

SMN up 22% today.

Also noticed on the News suger farmers are having there worse year for over 7 yrs

Currency. Beware today as we follow the USA close, so direction is limited to Eurozone opening

USDCAD Iam looking short at 1.08255 Stp 1.08327 Target 1.07686 be aware there is 1.8000 number below which could slow this down.I actually think this is closer to a long reversal, just getting an entry at support is the trick. If you go short get your stop to in the money quickly as it could reverse ot 1.8000.

GPBJPY ?????????? all over it

NZDUSD Candle resistance at 6744 and monthly R1 6765

USD/JPY short. but no confirmation as there is alot of support below.

I am almost finished analysing USDCHF USDJPY GPBUSD and EURUSD. these will be live. just waiting for momentuen to build.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4204 SL 1.4230 TP 1.4154

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0809 SL 1.0783 TP 1.0859

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6714 SL 1.6740 TP 1.6654

Sell USD/JPY at 97.24 SL 97.50 TP 96.74

THese are daily range set-up. Try to enter as close to high for short and low for long

EUR/USD

Trading range: 1.4220 - 1.4115

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.4206 SL 1.4238 TP 1.4129

USD/JPY

Trading range: 97.30 - 96.47

Trend: Downward

Sell at 97.27 91 97.63 TP 96.50

GBP/USD

Trading range: 1.6732 - 1.6620

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.6718 SL 1.6753 TP 1.6630

USD/CHF

Trading range: 1.0797 - 1.0908

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.0810 SL 1.0779 TP 1.0890

[lannarebirth]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Or maybe he does. Maybe he also understands that this is a forum about Thailand. Furthermore, he may understand that the TV moderators have more or less looked the other way while we discuss economic, currency and market issues unrelated to Thailand as perhaps one might be able to draw the conclusion it is somehow tangentially related or correlated to some degree. That seems to work when speaking in broad terms.

What he doesn't understand is, if people just want to tout trades, why they wouldn't do that at a forum created for that purpose. He also worries that people not skilled in trading might execute trades based on what they read here and lose money.

I'm not denigrating the quality of the information presented here, as I haven't evaluated it. I'm sure you'd agree however that one can be right and still lose money. I'm sure you'd also agree that if one follows anothers reasoning for getting in a trade they may not be equipped to know when they should no longer be in that trade.

[Paulo1]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Cheers Guys.

SMN up 22% today.

Also noticed on the News suger farmers are having there worse year for over 7 yrs

Currency. Beware today as we follow the USA close, so direction is limited to Eurozone opening

USDCAD Iam looking short at 1.08255 Stp 1.08327 Target 1.07686 be aware there is 1.8000 number below which could slow this down.I actually think this is closer to a long reversal, just getting an entry at support is the trick. If you go short get your stop to in the money quickly as it could reverse ot 1.8000.

GPBJPY ?????????? all over it

NZDUSD Candle resistance at 6744 and monthly R1 6765

USD/JPY short. but no confirmation as there is alot of support below.

I am almost finished analysing USDCHF USDJPY GPBUSD and EURUSD. these will be live. just waiting for momentuen to build.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4204 SL 1.4230 TP 1.4154

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0809 SL 1.0783 TP 1.0859

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6714 SL 1.6740 TP 1.6654

Sell USD/JPY at 97.24 SL 97.50 TP 96.74

Exit strategy is trade 10*.1 lot and exit .1 at a time. so you still have position in the market while cutting your losses

Exit USD/JPY at 97.08 with 16 pips profit

GBP/USD at 1.6686 with 28 pips profit

[likewise]

Yep GU is busy breaking the 23.6 fib level on 1H chart.

[likewise]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Or maybe he does. Maybe he also understands that this is a forum about Thailand. Furthermore, he may understand that the TV moderators have more or less looked the other way while we discuss economic, currency and market issues unrelated to Thailand as perhaps one might be able to draw the conclusion it is somehow tangentially related or correlated to some degree. That seems to work when speaking in broad terms.

What he doesn't understand is, if people just want to tout trades, why they wouldn't do that at a forum created for that purpose. He also worries that people not skilled in trading might execute trades based on what they read here and lose money.

I'm not denigrating the quality of the information presented here, as I haven't evaluated it. I'm sure you'd agree however that one can be right and still lose money. I'm sure you'd also agree that if one follows anothers reasoning for getting in a trade they may not be equipped to know when they should no longer be in that trade.

Of course everyone should make his own analysis, when Paulo comes out with a trade I don't follow blindly but make my own analysis as I used to before running into this thread.

But Paulo does come up with trades that I overlooked.

[Paulo1]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Cheers Guys.

SMN up 22% today.

Also noticed on the News suger farmers are having there worse year for over 7 yrs

Currency. Beware today as we follow the USA close, so direction is limited to Eurozone opening

USDCAD Iam looking short at 1.08255 Stp 1.08327 Target 1.07686 be aware there is 1.8000 number below which could slow this down.I actually think this is closer to a long reversal, just getting an entry at support is the trick. If you go short get your stop to in the money quickly as it could reverse ot 1.8000.

GPBJPY ?????????? all over it

NZDUSD Candle resistance at 6744 and monthly R1 6765

USD/JPY short. but no confirmation as there is alot of support below.

I am almost finished analysing USDCHF USDJPY GPBUSD and EURUSD. these will be live. just waiting for momentuen to build.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4204 SL 1.4230 TP 1.4154

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0809 SL 1.0783 TP 1.0859

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6714 SL 1.6740 TP 1.6654

Sell USD/JPY at 97.24 SL 97.50 TP 96.74

Exit strategy is trade 10*.1 lot and exit .1 at a time. so you still have position in the market while cutting your losses

Exit USD/JPY at 97.08 with 16 pips profit

GBP/USD at 1.6686 with 28 pips profit

GBPCAD..4 hr round btm.. 50% fibo..1.8000 resistance line.. looking long

Exit GBP/USD at 1.6666 with 48 pips profit

[likewise]

My TP at 1.6655 got hit on GU

[Paulo1]

My TP at 1.6655 got hit on GU

Likewise...lol

Were hard calls today. But have made some pips

Looking to short the USDCHF. Its i betweem a pivot and r1 , KNOWN AS no mans land. Hence a tight stop @ 1.0828 or 1.0848

Entry Strategy.. GPBUSD (wot??) is on support at 1.6673 if it starts to break higher will confirm a USDCHF short but entry must after a break and CLOSE below 1.8000 and if that happens stp will change to 1.0823,. This is quite techincal so maybe just watch as there are alot of balls in the air.

[Paulo1]

My TP at 1.6655 got hit on GU

Likewise...lol

Were hard calls today. But have made some pips

Looking to short the USDCHF. Its i betweem a pivot and r1 , KNOWN AS no mans land. Hence a tight stop @ 1.0828 or 1.0848

Entry Strategy.. GPBUSD (wot??) is on support at 1.6673 if it starts to break higher will confirm a USDCHF short but entry must after a break and CLOSE below 1.8000 and if that happens stp will change to 1.0823,. This is quite techincal so maybe just watch as there are alot of balls in the air.

LONG EURGPB buy stop 8522 stop 8496

[likewise]

I am observing EY at the moment, looks like it wants to go higher but hesistant.

Made 3.1% on account already today so am happy, but if I see a good possibilty I might jump in.

[Paulo1]

I am observing EY at the moment, looks like it wants to go higher but hesistant.

Made 3.1% on account already today so am happy, but if I see a good possibilty I might jump in.

Be careful there is between Daily R1 137.732 and R2 138. 523. Generally I don,t trade between s/r and pivot points.

[likewise]

Yes, that's why I am hesitant to enter.

patience is key no need to rush in

[Paulo1]

I am observing EY at the moment, looks like it wants to go higher but hesistant.

Made 3.1% on account already today so am happy, but if I see a good possibilty I might jump in.

Be careful there is between Daily R1 137.732 and R2 138. 523. Generally I don,t trade between s/r and pivot points.

USDJPY closed at 97.92 small loss

[myfriendu]

looks like eu/gbp on again just bonced on dp,bit a suuport at this level,cables looking weak

[myfriendu]

gbp/j breaks ,im short thru dp 161.58

[myfriendu]

closed cable now 64 pips wanted to hold it,but taken the money

Edited August 10, 2009 by myfriendu

[Paulo1]

closed cable now 64 pips wanted to hold it,but taken the money

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4204 SL 1.4230 TP 1.4154 closed 27 pips

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0809 SL 1.0783 TP 1.0859 closed 14 pips

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6714 SL 1.6740 TP 1.6654 closed 82 pips

Sell USD/JPY at 97.24 SL 97.50 TP 96.74 closed -9

total 114 * 4lots

AUDUSD went long 8386 target 8421/44 price now 8414 plus 28

EURGBP still long 8525

I said on the weekend the EURAUD was going to fall out the sky . It is dropping away nice

[Paulo1]

gbp/j breaks ,im short thru dp 161.58

I would short about 161 .15

Chart explains

Edited August 10, 2009 by Paulo1

[likewise]

market still ranging for most pairs, see what US session does.

GY, hmm, not sure at the moment what it wants to do.

DO you trade US session Paulo?

Edited August 10, 2009 by likewise

[Paulo1]

market still ranging for most pairs, see what US session does.

GY, hmm, not sure at the moment what it wants to do.

DO you trade US session Paulo?

Yes i do up till the EUROZONE closses, depends how much work I have on also.

sold audusd at 30 pip plus

eurgpb is looking ok too

GY (Dragon) is having that bounce i thought would happen, waiting game.

[Abrak]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Of course I understand the difference, I use both (but dont understand technical analysis well).

I wrongly assume perhaps that those who use technical analysis might be interested in fundamentals. I now fully understand that fundamentals are both considered useless and irritating on this thread. So wont make any fundamental observations in the future.

It was not wholely obvious to me that noone was interested in fundamentals. I mean 'Paulo1' who trades 'it seems' mostly on technicals seems to think 'that sugar producers are having their worst time in years' (or words to that effect) is of relevance.

To be honest I am very interested in short term movement in prices (which a fundamentalist simple cant predict), so the thread is very interesting. I also believe that technical analysis is important because it reflects investor psychology.

[likewise]

Both analysis are needed but I think that fundamentals are better used for longer term trades.

Yes paulo GY is ??? at the moment.

[Abrak]

Both analysis are needed but I think that fundamentals are better used for longer term trades.

Yes paulo GY is ??? at the moment.

I absolutely agree - there is virtually no correlation between a price and its fundamentals in the short term. I only invest on the long term correlation and I often buy or sell a long term position based on technicals.

As someone who has held say sugar for at least six months, I do find it hard to believe that people are now so keen to buy it for technical reasons without giving any thoughts to the fundamentals. The price has doubled afterall. I fully understand that noone is interested so I wont bore you. The price will probably double again in 3 months in which case your return will be far better than mine.

I fully respect technicals but I dont think that is a reason to think that fundamentals are crap. I do realise that most of you do so I wont waste your time with any.

[likewise]

Any advice is welcome mate, myself I look at the DJIA during the US session since it is correlated with many currency pairs.

[Paulo1]

Both analysis are needed but I think that fundamentals are better used for longer term trades.

Yes paulo GY is ??? at the moment.

I absolutely agree - there is virtually no correlation between a price and its fundamentals in the short term. I only invest on the long term correlation and I often buy or sell a long term position based on technicals.

As someone who has held say sugar for at least six months, I do find it hard to believe that people are now so keen to buy it for technical reasons without giving any thoughts to the fundamentals. The price has doubled afterall. I fully understand that noone is interested so I wont bore you. The price will probably double again in 3 months in which case your return will be far better than mine.

I fully respect technicals but I dont think that is a reason to think that fundamentals are crap. I do realise that most of you do so I wont waste your time with any.

Abrak,

No one here is anti fundamentals... chill out. My sugar and equity trades are bassed on them. I have also been watching sugar and other commods for months and i only enter when the techs are in agreement. Like you said you have been in sugar for six months. Techs get in at the right time to catch the money move, if you know what you are doing. Why have money sitting somewhere doing a little at a bigger risk, you know the longer you wait for the move whilst in the market the more chance of it going against you.

Don't have time to debate these things as its not only a waste of time but rather pointless to me, however, others may like to debate it, or perhaps you should learn to use Technicals to better your own trading and not worry about what others think or do.

Cheers

[myfriendu]

see what u mean closed g/j 35 pips,might be setting up for a long as with cable,see what happens in 5 mins ,should have held cable would have got 120 .better than a poke in the eye,thanks paulo

[nickbk]

I'm not an expert in forex but this information sounds quite interesting. Thanks for the tips

[myfriendu]

arbrak, i also trade long term,please start a new thread,i will post,on what i feel the fundies are telling me,maybe we can help each other thru the maze,

[myfriendu]

hi nick,im a trend trader,i used to trade,only using trend lines and fibs,about 4 months ago i was having a problem with my trading,ranging markets,paulo showed me a set up ma.s .s/r levels,and alot of tools i never looked into,hocus pocus i belived before,i only ever traded euro,he has helped me,look at the market in a new way.the guy is a rare breed,he is a trader,and he does,nt have to do anything and puts is self on here , and some people just dont get it.if you need any help,ask away,and best of all its all free,nobody wants to sell anything here,there are not many threads on here that are worth reading,if your into trading.abrak i ask again start a thread i will be your first post.lets get back to trading

[Abrak]

or perhaps you should learn to use Technicals to better your own trading and not worry about what others think or do.

Cheers

Well there you do have a point. I have tried. Read books about Fibonacci, Elliott wave, head and shoulders, volume verses movement etc.. but it just doesnt seem to stick. I seem to have a mental block somewhere.

Even reading this thread I am struggling. GBP had a huge collapse that was bound to lead to either a technical or fundamental bounce. That has happened so having little idea of its fundamentals but having seen a good rise, I am wondering whether to ride its upward momentum or sell out. At this level I cant get excited by the fundamentals either way.

Having read the thread, there is lots of advice about GBP, I just dont know what it means. Has GBP peaked or is it still trading upwards?

I fully accept that I dont understand technicals, which is why I read threads written by people who understand them much better. It is just a shame that even after having put in the effort to read the thread I am none the wiser.