Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Abrak]

Divergences are as useless and misleading as any other indicator. Unfortunately the eye in hindsight moves to the most dramatic price action and applies the appropriate indicator filtering afterwards. There is not a single way or tool to project even the very next tick. The only thing true is trend and a high probability of price respecting support and resistance levels . Using indicators has some benefits as confirmation to price action but not the other way around unless one faces luck which will be followed by disaster if not recognized as such.

I really wonder whether you could statistically prove that statement - about trend respecting support and resistance. It may well be true but I have never in my life seen any statistical evidence to back it up.

I am far more basic and again could not produce evidence to support what amounts to faith 'Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.' I would admit that the statement seems so simplistic that it cannot possibly be true but it seems to work as well as any other investment strategy that I understand.

[PCA]

Divergences are as useless and misleading as any other indicator. Unfortunately the eye in hindsight moves to the most dramatic price action and applies the appropriate indicator filtering afterwards. There is not a single way or tool to project even the very next tick. The only thing true is trend and a high probability of price respecting support and resistance levels . Using indicators has some benefits as confirmation to price action but not the other way around unless one faces luck which will be followed by disaster if not recognized as such.

I really wonder whether you could statistically prove that statement - about trend respecting support and resistance. It may well be true but I have never in my life seen any statistical evidence to back it up.

I am far more basic and again could not produce evidence to support what amounts to faith 'Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.' I would admit that the statement seems so simplistic that it cannot possibly be true but it seems to work as well as any other investment strategy that I understand.

I dont have a statistic. You read it wrong or I did write it unclear. I did not mean that the trend is respecting support and resistance but wanted to point out that both of those things are the essentials to profitable trading based on chart reading.

You dont have the approach of a trader who works to get paid regularly by timing accuarately who after entering a market tries to take out any risk (except the risk of giving back profits) as soon as possible. I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out.

[Abrak]

You dont have the approach of a trader who works to get paid regularly by timing accuarately who after entering a market tries to take out any risk (except the risk of giving back profits) as soon as possible. I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out.

No clearly you dont but that might not necessarily to be to your advantage. I suspect that if people were to nominate the top ten investors of the last 50 years they would probably include Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton, Peter Lynch, T Rowe Price, Benjamin Graham.

What they all had which you admit you dont is patience.

Warren Buffett is a pretty good investor (you can look him up on wikipedia). One of his most famous quotes is "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient."

There is a very obvious fallacy in your comments which I would at least hope you would see as somewhat laughable by the way.

[PCA]

You dont have the approach of a trader who works to get paid regularly by timing accuarately who after entering a market tries to take out any risk (except the risk of giving back profits) as soon as possible. I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out.

No clearly you dont but that might not necessarily to be to your advantage. I suspect that if people were to nominate the top ten investors of the last 50 years they would probably include Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton, Peter Lynch, T Rowe Price, Benjamin Graham.

What they all had which you admit you dont is patience.

Warren Buffett is a pretty good investor (you can look him up on wikipedia). One of his most famous quotes is "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient."

There is a very obvious fallacy in your comments which I would at least hope you would see as somewhat laughable by the way.

So is Mr. Abrak also one of the top ten investors? Mr. PCA is living nicely from the things he understands how to do them. What seems laughable is your ignorance to other ways of earning a dime in the markets than just yours. This fundamental investment thingy might be good in case one has the right skills or better said the privilege to get reliable and trustworthy information about their chosen investments at the right time. Considering your investment style you are the very last one who should critisize here in this thread and in particular the things I stated before because your skills are at level 0 and you should not even try to consider learning technical trading as it would mess up your success with sit and wait tactics.

By the way a fundamental analyst should (I assume) leave a post in one piece in order to understand its full context (which you didnt anyway) instead of quoting the less saying part.

[Abrak]

PCA,

If you had ever read my posts (and there is no particular reason you should) I have stated that any consistent investment strategy be it technical, fundamental, momentum etc will tend to be successful so long as it is pursued consistently and with discipline because the average investor is driven by sentiment and loses money.

Obviously I am fundamental driven and it would be counter productive probably to learn about technicals.

I would point out though that I have made no claims as to my success. You on the other hand have totally disagreed with a very successful investor 'Peter Lynch' who claims '100% correlation between a share price and its stock in the long run'. You also disagree with Warren Buffett who sees your impatience I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out as the key to making money in the stock market.

To me you are in no position to question these guys when you admit you are a 'trader who works to get paid'. I do hope I am never in such an unfortunate position again.

[PCA]

PCA,

If you had ever read my posts (and there is no particular reason you should) I have stated that any consistent investment strategy be it technical, fundamental, momentum etc will tend to be successful so long as it is pursued consistently and with discipline because the average investor is driven by sentiment and loses money.

Obviously I am fundamental driven and it would be counter productive probably to learn about technicals.

I would point out though that I have made no claims as to my success. You on the other hand have totally disagreed with a very successful investor 'Peter Lynch' who claims '100% correlation between a share price and its stock in the long run'. You also disagree with Warren Buffett who sees your impatience I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out as the key to making money in the stock market.

To me you are in no position to question these guys when you admit you are a 'trader who works to get paid'. I do hope I am never in such an unfortunate position again.

Abrak, sorry to say (not) but your ignorance does not require any further elaboration than that I never said I disagree with any fundamental investor if he is skilled but I do disagree with most of the useless crap you post and thats the reason why I did not read most of your comments. Additionally who really cares much or often about the stock markets?

[Abrak]

Abrak, sorry to say (not) but your ignorance does not require any further elaboration than that I never said I disagree with any fundamental investor if he is skilled but I do disagree with most of the useless crap you post and thats the reason why I did not read most of your comments. Additionally who really cares much or often about the stock markets?

How ridiculous can this get?

You have obviously made yourself look incredibly foolish by having a debate with someone you consider a moron.

And I have remarkably achieved the distinction of making myself appear even more moronic than you.

[Naam]

Abrak, PCA... Gentlemen! why don't you just agree to disagree? personally i abhor both your investment styles and stick to my own but admit that each of our completely different approaches can/may/will or has already lead to success. and success is the only thing that counts.

[lannarebirth]

Abrak, PCA... Gentlemen! why don't you just agree to disagree? personally i abhor both your investment styles and stick to my own but admit that each of our completely different approaches can/may/will or has already lead to success. and success is the only thing that counts.

You're all wrong, and right too as everyone's approach is different. Different approaches can work.

Personally I know of at least 25 different ways to make money trading (and just as many to lose money) Speaking for myself I would NEVER "invest" in equities while proforma accounting methods are used for reported earnings. Nor would I when significant capital appreciation is required to earn a good return. Nor when every other f'in person is doing m/l the same thing. That said, trading can allow one to make far in excess of their expenses each year and one can certainly invest that money wherever they choose and feel more comfortable. while I don't have the patience to wait for a stock to rise LT I don't lose a bit of sleep having paid for land that costs little in expenses to own. Some of it brings me income, some doesn't.

In my case I equate equities with the selling of magic beans and as a trader I only care which way the colored line moves and don't want to know a thing about the underlying.

[Naam]

Abrak, PCA... Gentlemen! why don't you just agree to disagree? personally i abhor both your investment styles and stick to my own but admit that each of our completely different approaches can/may/will or has already lead to success. and success is the only thing that counts.

You're all wrong, and right too as everyone's approach is different. Different approaches can work.

Personally I know of at least 25 different ways to make money trading (and just as many to lose money) Speaking for myself I would NEVER "invest" in equities while proforma accounting methods are used for reported earnings. Nor would I when significant capital appreciation is required to earn a good return. Nor when every other f'in person is doing m/l the same thing. That said, trading can allow one to make far in excess of their expenses each year and one can certainly invest that money wherever they choose and feel more comfortable. while I don't have the patience to wait for a stock to rise LT I don't lose a bit of sleep having paid for land that costs little in expenses to own. Some of it brings me income, some doesn't.

In my case I equate equities with the selling of magic beans and as a trader I only care which way the colored line moves and don't want to know a thing about the underlying.

i agree with you on equities but colored lines give me the shivers

[Abrak]

.....

Edited August 23, 2009 by Abrak

[Abrak]

I have stated on several occasions that I believe there are many strategies for making money (in fact I virtually believe that any consistent strategy will make you money.)

For what it is worth my preference for equities in no way reflects a view that they as an asset class it brings the best returns. It is more a function of the fact that there are so many of them. If you do a modest amount of research you can therefore find stocks that appear 3 or 4 times undervalued which can then be verified to a degree by contact with the management. As the market becomes aware of these fundamentals the degree of undervaluation contracts. It doesnt take a rocket scientist.

Now with things like gold or currencies etc I have at the very best the same understanding of the fundamentals as the market (and I am being pretty optimistic here) so if I make money it is pure luck. I guess as some traders know how to make money out of these markets, if I break even I shouldnt really complain.

[zorro1]

guys were all making money in a rising market. lets see whos left standing if there is a correction or when we are in full recovery mode . This arguing is silly

[badge]

With your experience, how do you do with FX?

It pays the bills

[Paulo1]

With your experience, how do you do with FX?

It pays the bills

In Thailand bills nit noi

[uptou]

Additionally who really cares much or often about the stock markets?

Now that comment really makes me wonder about any advice given.I have images of a NASA rocket scientist saying the same thing about his chosen field of expertise to astronauts as they board their shuttle sat ontop of a potential bomb.

[Abrak]

I am not a trader really so I accept any comment made against this. There is no volume.

[badge]

In Thailand bills nit noi

Thats what I thought, but you'd be surprised!

[Paulo1]

Divergences are as useless and misleading as any other indicator. Unfortunately the eye in hindsight moves to the most dramatic price action and applies the appropriate indicator filtering afterwards. There is not a single way or tool to project even the very next tick. The only thing true is trend and a high probability of price respecting support and resistance levels . Using indicators has some benefits as confirmation to price action but not the other way around unless one faces luck which will be followed by disaster if not recognized as such.

I agree with mostly of what you are saying. If you are using Divergence the MACD is probably the better one to use.

Price action, trend from longer TF, candles, pivots and S/R is where i trade from.

cheers

[Paulo1]

In Thailand bills nit noi

Thats what I thought, but you'd be surprised!

Personally I think anyone making over 100 pips per day profit is trading excellently.

[Paulo1]

Trade Idea.

[11.00am watching GBPUSD..on hr and 15m..Bounced off 1.6308.S1..Resistance line1.6300..weekly 17 hits..Fibo projection off 1st countertrend.range down on 4 hr.Fibo.707 off daily ..gives1.6289.. Trend line off 8/6 low hits rite on..5 reasons why there should be a reaction here... it may be a counter trend before further weakness.

Edited August 26, 2009 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

ASX Trade Idea,

BTU under .06

[badge]

Personally I think anyone making over 100 pips per day profit is trading excellently.

Id certainly agree.

I made 30 pips on cable y'day, prior to which I took 103 and 34 pips on cable and eurusd respectively last friday.

These are my only FX trades in the last week.

[Paulo1]

On the road at prsent so trading limited.

Keep an eye on the jpys AUD NZD

[Paulo1]

On the road at prsent so trading limited.

Keep an eye on the jpys AUD NZD

Due to large work load I have been unable to keep the thread up to date. Sorry to all followers. The good news is next week i will begi posting again.

Thanks

[Paulo1]

On the road at prsent so trading limited.

Keep an eye on the jpys AUD NZD

Due to large work load I have been unable to keep the thread up to date. Sorry to all followers. The good news is next week i will begi posting again.

Thanks

Possible Trades,

USDCAD needs a little time but am looking to enter a long position near 1.0467 or 1.0455 zone stop about 20 pips/ Chart attached.

NZDUSD short have enter short at 7432

GBPJPY level to watch is 148.990

[garudatrade]

I think its great he is sharing his trades. Why so many haters around here?

[Paulo1]

On the road at prsent so trading limited.

Keep an eye on the jpys AUD NZD

Due to large work load I have been unable to keep the thread up to date. Sorry to all followers. The good news is next week i will begi posting again.

Thanks

Possible Trades,

USDCAD needs a little time but am looking to enter a long position near 1.0467 or 1.0455 zone stop about 20 pips/ Chart attached.

NZDUSD short have enter short at 7432

GBPJPY level to watch is 148.990

Ok here we are 12/11/09.

Just a brief overview.

NZDUSD short from posting it bounced back to my entry on London opening. Now look at the candles right on my first entry and notice we the stop is. Stop could have been place the spread difference above the pale blue line. I have taken 50% profit at 73900 about 40pips. not big but not a loss either. Equats to about $400 USD. Chart attached.

GBPJPY broke the 148.990 zone we i entered a short, plus 30 pips.

USDCAD has not shown much since posting. Struggling at the 1.04490 zone, am waiting a entry signal.

GBP had some bad news last night, so lets watch.

EURUSD and looking for a short near 1.50070 stop 50 pips or 1.4982 stop 20 pips pips, . I like the candle pattern on the 4hr.

If short the EURUSD you might as well go long the USDCHF at the sametime, They are negatively correlation.

have many more to post, but this is enough for now.

[Paulo1]

NZDUSD Trade.

Food for thought.

When will this gap be filled???

Chart attached.

I have included a gap trade i did on last monday. As soon as the Gap was closed i was out.

[badge]

Hi Paulo.

Ahhh, pivots.

Ive never quite understood why looking at yesterdays OHLC and dividing it should have any relevance to tomorrows trading in anyway whatsoever(is that all 1 word? )?

But I suppose it gives a good enough excuse to get into a trade, and of course if enough folks use them they'll have a self-fulfilling element?