Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Parts Of Thailand

[george]

Tropical storm warning issued for parts of Thailand

At 10.00 a.m. today, Tropical Storm “Noul” in the middle South China Sea was centered about 500 km east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or lat 11.5 °N, long 111.0 °E , with sustained winds of 75 km/hr. It is moving westwards with a speed of 18 km/hr. The storm is expected make landfall to lower Vietnam by tomorrow.

More rains are likely in the lower Northeast, the East and the South of Thailand. The prevailing northeast monsoon over Thailand Gulf will strengthen with wave above 2 meters. All ships should proceed with caution during 18-21 November.

Another surge of nearly intense high pressure system from China has covered lower China. It will then cover upper Thailand by tomorrow and impact on the Northeast first. This causes cooler weather and 2-4 °C drops respectively.

-- TMD 2008-11-17

[sbk]

projected path of Noul:

source: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html

[george]

Meteorological Department: Tropical storm Noul heads to Vietnam

BANGKOK: -- Thai Meteorological Department warned Monday the impact of the tropical storm "Noul" that was about to make landfall in neigbouring country of Vietnam and would impact on the kingdom through most of the week.

The Meteorological Department's statement about 6 am Monday said tropical storm Noul in the mid-South China Sea was centered about 550 km east of Ho Chi Minh City with sustained winds of 65 km/hr, and that it was moving westward at a speed of 18 km/hr.

The storm is expected to strikethe Southeast Asia land mass in southern Vietnam during Monday and Tuesday (November 17-18) and begin moving inland.

Thailand's Eastern and eastern Northeastern provinces will experience more rainfall, and the already prevailing northeast monsoon over the Gulf of Thailand will strengthen with waves above two metres from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

All ships should proceed with caution during this period, the Meterological Department announcement said.

Scattered rain will envelop the eastern side of southern Thailand, with heavy rain expected in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phattalung, Songkhla and Narathiwat.

Meanwhile, Thailand's northern provinces will experience cold weather and thick fog.

-- TNA 2008-11-17

[george]

Floods kill 11 in central and southern Vietnam

HANOI: — Flooding killed at least 11 people in Vietnam's southern and central regions, submerged thousands of homes in its largest city and stranded air and railway passengers, officials said Sunday.

The country braced for more rain as another tropical storm approached, forecasters said.

Floods caused by surging high tides submerged thousands of homes in the southern commercial hub of Ho Chi Minh City over the weekend, according to state media.

No deaths were reported in the city, but television footage showed homes and streets in the downtown area under three feet (one meter) of water.

At least eight people were killed in heavy rains in southern Khanh Hoa province over the weekend, including a 2-year-old boy who drowned, said disaster official Pham Van Quang.

In neighboring Phu Yen province, the bodies of three children were recovered Sunday after being washed away from their homes, said provincial official Dang Thi Lanh.

The floods disrupted the main highway and railway links between northern and southern Vietnam. Flights were canceled to Nha Trang, a southern beach resort town. Thousands of passengers were stranded, Lanh said.

Rains had stopped in most areas by Sunday afternoon, but Tropical Storm Noul, packing winds of 45 miles (70 kilometers) per hour, was expected to make landfall Tuesday in the country's central region and the Mekong River delta, Vietnam's rice bowl, the national forecaster said.

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung urged provinces to move people to higher ground and call home thousands of fishing boats.

"This storm, though not very strong, is expected to hit hard the vast delta, where houses are not well built. So it could be a very devastating one," state-owned television quoted Hung as saying.

Last week, 94 people died in floods that inundated the capital, Hanoi, and other provinces in the country's northern and central regions.

Vietnam is prone to floods, which kill hundreds each year.

-- AP 2008-11-17

[bubba]

Here's the US Navy Joint Typhoon Warning site, which is fairly comprehensive in providing up-to-date forecasts, track projections and satellite photos:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

[Boater]

I see the PAth of the Storm is straight over Koh Samui !

[rossigee]

I see the PAth of the Storm is straight over Koh Samui !

Well north of Samui by the look of it. Looks to me like it'll hit land somewhere between Chumpon and Prachuab Kirikhan.

/me battens down the hatches.

[LTGTR]

Being a 35 year veteran of south Florida hurricanes,this "storm" is nothng more than a strong sustained breeze that will blow away the bad air (smog).These "storms" lose their pinch over land as they don't not have the warm water to draw from.Sure,the rain will fall and we'll get a breeze and any loose objects will be blown around,but nothing more.

[londonthai]

as flying tomorrow into bangkok I hope there won't be diversions due to weather

[sbk]

I see the PAth of the Storm is straight over Koh Samui !

Well north of Samui by the look of it. Looks to me like it'll hit land somewhere between Chumpon and Prachuab Kirikhan.

/me battens down the hatches.

typhoon alley of Thailand, unfortunately for residents of Chumphon and Prachuab

Samui residents can look forward to heavy rains, again.

[meadish_sweetball]

Chiang Mai could use a bit more rain to clear the skies again.

[sbk]

Disrespectful off-topic comments have been removed. Please refrain from posting further such pointless and off topic observations, thanks.

[Phil Conners]

Does anyone know if that will have any effect on the weather in Pattaya, other than a little rain?

[scrabbleking]

HELLO!!! The storm is 300 miles off the coast of Vietnam, trying to guess where it will make landfall by the time it reaches western shore of the Gulf of Thailand. You have a better chance of picking the lottery numbers.

[FBN]

Na Trang predicted but will lose much over Cambodia..

This is a good link: http://www.tmd.go.th/en/

[fred2007]

Being a 35 year veteran of south Florida hurricanes,this "storm" is nothng more than a strong sustained breeze that will blow away the bad air (smog).These "storms" lose their pinch over land as they don't not have the warm water to draw from.Sure,the rain will fall and we'll get a breeze and any loose objects will be blown around,but nothing more.

I agree, my fan makes more then 75 km winds I don't come from Florida I come from OZ

to me it is just a light sea breeze with a bit of rain to follow

[Foggy Bottom]

Here we go again - "waves of 2 metres predicted"

God Almighty - when will they learn there is a required second part to such statements?

What will the flaming CREST FREQUENCY be?

2-metres is a light swell in the North Sea between England and Holland - until the crests either get too close together (severe hazard for small craft) or too far apart (makes even super tankers pitch fore and aft, but great fun and no hazard in a small yacht).

2-metres? Is that crest to trough, or mean water to crest (i.e. a 4-metre wave crest to trough - a much more serious beasty)

I am reminded of something a Thai said to me during my first year in the kingdom - "we teach our children by only ever telling them half of the story. If they don't ask questions about the other half, they learn nothing".

Seems the Thai Met Office uses the same principle.

Gaz

[12DrinkMore]

I am reminded of something a Thai said to me during my first year in the kingdom - "we teach our children by only ever telling them half of the story. If they don't ask questions about the other half, they learn nothing".

AHA The LIGHT comes on.

So over a couple of generations the knowledge base in Thailand diminishes exponentially down the tubes. Sounds like a reasonable theory and matches my observations.

[animatic]

I see the PAth of the Storm is straight over Koh Samui !

That was not lost on me and my 12 x 8 meters of windows...

Even if a bit north it will be wild enough for me.

I was in at the water for Hurricane Bob in New England 123mph sustained winds

and gust well above. And more inland for Gloria which was no pipsqueak.

I did NOT build near shore.

Shouldn't be too bad, a full gale,

still caution for flooding and flying debres is called for.

Edited November 17, 2008 by animatic

[hamishgillan]

Swell.

[Moonrakers]

Swell.

Very good.

Lets keep it on topic though so as not to get a torrent of abuse.

[sawadeeken]

It may not be a "Big Blow" but the rain and flooding may be the the worst effect........... And PITY for those with "substandard" housing, which are MANY throughout the area (unlike Florida)............ I have relatives near Korat that have already lost rice and other crops from too much rain -- so this storm is sure to do many people, who are less fortunate than ourselves, a lot of harm.............

[baht&sold]

Having watched the radar projections on this cyclone/soon to be tropical depression over the past couple days, it appears Thailand 'could' well be affected (beyond a few swells). At the very least by large waves in the gulf, strong winds and very heavy rain elsewhere... This looks potentially dangerous to the un-prepared and why a warning hasn't been announced in the broader Thai media (as yet) is a mystery and hopefully not a costly one...

Piece of advice/Peace of mind:

CHECK WEATHER UPDATES BEFORE BOARDING ANY BOATS IN THE GULF -

from the Eastern Seaboard on down to Surat Thani, especially over the next day or so.

Thailand weather reports in English- Thai Meteorological Department:

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/

Weather related site with Thailand rainfall details:

http://www.fallingrain.com/world/TH/

NOUL details and tracking:

PROJECTION 1 (many variables but projects the central path lands near Hua Hin area)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

PROJECTION 2 (Pattaya, Samet, Koh Chang etc, direct hit - more likely path?)

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

PROJECTION 2 (enhanced)

Still, not set to be a repeat of the devastating cyclone which landed at Chumpon unexpectedly on Nov 4 1989:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

Either way, as yours truly is currently in beautiful (but downright chilly) Vientiane and flying from Udon Thani back to Bkk tomorrow afternoon, looks like a bit of a bumpy ride in perhaps (likely same-same for ALL flights bound for Bkk tomorrow)...

EDIT/sp

Edited November 17, 2008 by baht&sold

[Moonrakers]

I remember well being back in the UK, listening to gale force winds howling outside the window with roof tiles literally being torn away (A neighbor once lost a whole roof).

Looking back now I am grateful for the brick and mortar house that I lived in at the time as opposed to the flimsy shacks that many have in this part of the world.

In which case lets hope that it isn't too bad.

[baht&sold]

PS: Beyond minor concerns of safe boat travel in Thailand's gulf and for hopes of my own relatively non-bumpy comfortable flight from Udon to swampy, my thoughts are also for the Burmese people whom may be hit by NOUL next. STILL reeling from cyclone Nargis, Generals and the former pass-the-baht-relay Thai proxy-PM Samaks' declaration portraying Burma's 'handlers/Generals' thusly: “killings are normal” - and dictators are good buddhists too... Let's hope ex-pawn Samak get's better health treatment stateside to 'cook n grumble' once more (with post-wisdom/humility) and may the long-suffering people of Burma get a deserved miss from cyclone/depression NOUL (even as saffron protesters are handed life-sentences for the audacity of standing in front of the storm)...

[BigBikeBKK]

WooHoo!

Surf's UP!!!

I was planning on a motorcycle ride to Chiang Mai, but I may have to wax up the boards and head south instead

Any other surfers out there thinking about hittin' it?

[Ieyuhrah]

Why mess with those. I'm keeping my 20' board ready for when California goes west & I can catch that one big wave to Denver.....

[bubba]

Joint Typhoon Warning Center have just issued their "Final Warning" for Noul, predicting that it will dissipate shortly after it crosses from Cambodia into Thailand at Trat province. Looks like there is no need for any further gloom and doom....

171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 106.7E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM

WEST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IS

NOW EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF

THAILAND. HOWEVER, IF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WERE TO REMAIN

INTACT WHILE TRACKING OVER CENTRAL CAMBODIA, AND THEN TRACK INTO THE

GULF, REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY

NOW BECAUSE OF AN ALREADY BRISK WEAKENING TREND DESPITE THE SYSTEM

BEING OVER LAND FOR LESS THAN 6 HOURS, AND A CONTINUED TRACK OVER LAND

FOR THE NEXT DAY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE

CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

[robinbkk]

I do really understand the lack of knowledge of MOST people on tropical weather systems and Thailand is never hit by one, just by some remnants.

By the time it hits Thailand it is not a typhoon, not a tropical storm, at most a tropical depression but most likely just a remnant low.

Here a link with the latest satelite photo of this "system" . http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...200826_sat.html

By the way, people talking abt landfall should think again, as it already made landfall in VN and is traveling over land. If this, (by then non system) emerges over the Gulf of Thailand, there is no chance of re-intensification as it lacks the dynamics at that moment.

Now I am not a meteorologist either, but i have weathered out both Hurricane Gustav and Ike in the Gulf of Mexico this year and seen the onshore devestation both of these hurricanes have caused. I can assure you for 100% sure there will be no such event with this sytem in Thailand at all.

Rain and a breeze is all you're gonna get and maybe even nothing at all.

[diehard60]

I am reminded of something a Thai said to me during my first year in the kingdom - "we teach our children by only ever telling them half of the story. If they don't ask questions about the other half, they learn nothing".

AHA The LIGHT comes on.

So over a couple of generations the knowledge base in Thailand diminishes exponentially down the tubes. Sounds like a reasonable theory and matches my observations.

What are we doing? I thought we were talking about a tropical storm not education. Are you guys really for real? or what.