Bot Concerned About Increased Unemployment

[george]

BoT concerned about increased unemployment

BANGKOK: -- Around 900,000 people will be unemployed if the Thai economy grows only 2-2.5 per cent next year, according to the Bank of Thailand.

BoT deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee said the central bank would revise its economic growth estimate for 2009 made in September that it would expand by some 3.8-5 per cent after many think tanks decreased their forecasts based on concerns about growing negative factors.

Of late, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) had decreased its economic expansion forecast for next year to 3-4 per cent.

Regarding a proposed value-added tax (VAT) cut, Mrs. Atchana viewed it as one of the most effective measures, but might be difficult to be put into practice.

The measure, if implemented, would be seen an effort by the government to reap political popularity.

Should the VAT be cut as proposed, she said, it will be hard to increase the tax again later because the government would be afraid of losing popularity.

Regarding the proposed policy interest cut, she said it is up to the Monetary Policy Committee's decision.

Mrs. Atchana said she supported the proposed state guarantee on small- and medium-size enterprise (SME) loans.

However, she cautioned that loan accounts must be clearly separated and strictly examined to prevent an "unscathed" collapse by business owners.

-- TNA 2008-11-25

[Ricardo]

Perhaps the Deputy-Governor of the BoT might discuss, with her colleague the Governor, whether their current strong-Baht/high-interest-rate policy is still the right one, now that the situation is starting to worsen, as many of us ignorant farangs had long-ago forcast would happen ?

Or perhaps not, since face is involved here, and a change-of-policy would imply that previous policy was just plain wrong.

Did Nero have a female companion, who also practised upon the fiddle, while Rome was in flames ?

[PeaceBlondie]

I believe most of the top positions at the BOT are staffed by very well educated females,, but I am not sure how they play first or second fiddle.

I do not understand how the GDP or the economy would grow by even 2 percent, and almost a million Thais lose their jobs.

[Jingthing]

Yes, exports should be down. Thus, many lost jobs. Isn't the USA Thailand's top exporting target? Why would Thailand be immune to this international earthquake? Answer. They aren't.

Edited November 25, 2008 by Jingthing

[Seneque]

Perhaps the Deputy-Governor of the BoT might discuss, with her colleague the Governor, whether their current strong-Baht/high-interest-rate policy is still the right one, now that the situation is starting to worsen

They don't need to do anything, the forces of the market will take over ...

ongoing political crisis

Few tourists,

Drastic drop in exports,

Rising unemployement,

No more foreign reserves, ...

What's next ?

[pothai]

I feel sorry for all the expats on a pension....their income has reduced anything from 10%-30% depending on where they come from..also if they have a business that will be suffering due to lack of tourists. already know of 2 long term relationships that have broken down due to the guy not being able to "take care" of his girl as much each month....how many times is this gonna happen. recently heard a girl saying foget the English as their money is no good.

[Martin]

Change is not necessarily for the worse.

I think that Buddha's philosophy teaches us to say "Change is." That is, whether any thing is a good thing or a bad thing (or a mixture) depends on our reaction to the change.

Many of the jobs that are being lost, as lack of orders from abroad causes manufacture-for-export to contract, were jobs that Thailand 'bought' at the expense of grave disruptions to families', and communities', lives.

(I recently visited a village where every one of the fathers had been working away. Even the village head man (poo yai baan) had been just coming back from Rayong for one day each month to sign his name and collect his stipend. Every child in the village was basically 'unfathered'. Fortunately, that village managed to pull itself together. It is still largely cashless, but the people say: "Not poor now. Still no money, but not poor".)

It is quite possible to construct a feasible scenario of Thailand benefitting in 'social capital' from what it loses in 'monetary capital'.

Thailand's fundamentals are sound. Because of its size and clement climate, it can grow enough food to feed its population and can house them adequately.

Many countries are facing not being able to do that.

In "The Long Emergency", James Howard Kunstler casts doubts on America's ability to achieve it for much longer.

Thank goodness for that Thai-Scot, Senator Veechai ("Cabbages and Condoms"), who campaigned successfully to get the people of Thailand to discipline their human proclivity to breed and, so, to keep population growth within bounds.

Yes, we see that there are big changes ahead, like when black clouds are gathering; but rain is actually a blessing as well as uncomfortable, and black clouds have silver linings.

[plachon]

Change is not necessarily for the worse.

I think that Buddha's philosophy teaches us to say "Change is." That is, whether any thing is a good thing or a bad thing (or a mixture) depends on our reaction to the change.

Many of the jobs that are being lost, as lack of orders from abroad causes manufacture-for-export to contract, were jobs that Thailand 'bought' at the expense of grave disruptions to families', and communities', lives.

(I recently visited a village where every one of the fathers had been working away. Even the village head man (poo yai baan) had been just coming back from Rayong for one day each month to sign his name and collect his stipend. Every child in the village was basically 'unfathered'. Fortunately, that village managed to pull itself together. It is still largely cashless, but the people say: "Not poor now. Still no money, but not poor".)

It is quite possible to construct a feasible scenario of Thailand benefitting in 'social capital' from what it loses in 'monetary capital'.

Thailand's fundamentals are sound. Because of its size and clement climate, it can grow enough food to feed its population and can house them adequately.

Many countries are facing not being able to do that.

In "The Long Emergency", James Howard Kunstler casts doubts on America's ability to achieve it for much longer.

Thank goodness for that Thai-Scot, Senator Veechai ("Cabbages and Condoms"), who campaigned successfully to get the people of Thailand to discipline their human proclivity to breed and, so, to keep population growth within bounds.

Yes, we see that there are big changes ahead, like when black clouds are gathering; but rain is actually a blessing as well as uncomfortable, and black clouds have silver linings.

Doesn't that village where all the malefolk are away labouring to make ends meet, not only tell you something about the state of Thailand's social decline, but also people's attitudes towards farming being the way to go, today or in the future? I know you think that when the shit really does hit the fan (when a barrel of oil quaduples to $200/barrel), the city-dwelling "villagers" will all rush back and happily till the land once more and Thailand will revert to a sustainable agrarian economy with everyone regaining the lost knowledge once held by their forefathers about landcare and farming. Somehow, I don't think it'll be that easy, as you overlook many fundamentals.

For example, I disagree with your assessment the Thai village is "largely cashless". That is patently nonsense. It may be cash poor for many families, but cash is definitely the oil that keeps the socio-economic cogs turning these days. Gone are the days of bartering and reciprocal exchange of labour that was once commonplace, even 15 years ago. There has been a paradigm change in the village economy from Chartip's and your rather nostalgic representations. Cash is king, thanks to Thaksin and TRT, which elevated money politics to the highest position in the land and prompted such a backlash from PAD and others, who saw that a return to Sufficiency Economy principles might be one way out of the morass. This has been criticised as idealist nonsense by many, but the fact remains there are strong currents in Thai society who think there are opportunities to not only clean up Thai politics, but clean up the parallel rise of powerful agribusiness cartels which have been steadily polluting Thai soil, water and biodiversity for several decades. One company stands out head and shoulders above the others for its influence in this sphere.

Going back to your "unfathered" children in the "cashless" village. Do you suppose their parents even own the land they once farmed, or have sold it off in a bid to ensure those same kids never have to plough a sod or scatter a seed in their life. And how much of the land that does remain is planted to soil-killing eucalypts or chemical hungry sugar cane, which will never grow an ear of rice again, unless you were to spend thousands of baht per rai in land rehabilitation costs. Where's the money going to come from to bring the land back to life?

Your Thai-Scot hero, by the way, is called Meechai and at one time was a big fan of GM rice, doing deals with Monsanto and the jao pors of Buriram, the Chidchob family, to bring it into the naa of Isaan. It failed, like many of his rural development projects, thanks to the vigilance of NGO's not quite so enamoured of his sleep with anyone with a fat chequebook policy. He did do a good job at getting condoms normalised (and even named after him!) and AIDS on the political map of Thailand, which he can be applauded for. C&C also does a good used condom salad, using woon sen.

And as a last word, would really hate to think that there isn't a silver lining somewhere amongst the momentous change that surely must be coming to Thailand soon.

[TAWP]

I feel sorry for all the expats on a pension....their income has reduced anything from 10%-30% depending on where they come from..also if they have a business that will be suffering due to lack of tourists. already know of 2 long term relationships that have broken down due to the guy not being able to "take care" of his girl as much each month....how many times is this gonna happen. recently heard a girl saying foget the English as their money is no good.

Sounds like those relationships wasn't that stable to begin with...

[Old Man River]

Yes, exports should be down. Thus, many lost jobs. Isn't the USA Thailand's top exporting target? Why would Thailand be immune to this international earthquake? Answer. They aren't.

Absolutely.

While the USA is not Thailand's top export market, what does it matter? This is a global crisis that, as you say, nobody is immune to. Hence, wherever they send their exports, that country's imports will be declining. Everyone's affected. Such is the mess we are in.

[Jingthing]

Yes, exports should be down. Thus, many lost jobs. Isn't the USA Thailand's top exporting target? Why would Thailand be immune to this international earthquake? Answer. They aren't.

Absolutely.

While the USA is not Thailand's top export market, what does it matter? This is a global crisis that, as you say, nobody is immune to. Hence, wherever they send their exports, that country's imports will be declining. Everyone's affected. Such is the mess we are in.

I think the USA IS Thailand's top export market, why do you say that it isn't?

Yes, of course IT MATTERS. If your top export market is melting down and not spending, of course IT MATTERS.

The United States is Thailand's largest export market

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2814.htm

Edited November 26, 2008 by Jingthing