Thais Have Seen The Writing On The Wall - Well Some Of Them

[misterman21]

I have spoken with a lot of Thai people of late and I keep hearing the same concerns. Factorys are closing; small buisinesses are giving up the ghost, - and things will get worse. With no welfare system and a dysfunctional political system - they are very concerned. Only the zombies don't understand and they will only add to the problems as things deteriorate.

How concerned are you?

[siam4ever]

As the economy got better and better all thru the Thaksin years until the end in 2006 many farangs found a lot to be fearful and angry at. I think that as the economy recedes there will be a good deal of fearful and angry mutterings from farang.

[misterman21]

As the economy got better and better all thru the Thaksin years until the end in 2006 many farangs found a lot to be fearful and angry at. I think that as the economy recedes there will be a good deal of fearful and angry mutterings from farang.

So what are you saying - try reading the post

[wasabi]

I believe Thailand is headed for a Depression which may last until well into the next decade. They have lost all competitive advantage and the global economy is very competitive. Their one savings grace was cheap labor but most multinationals are likely to reconsider if the cost of this cheap labor is too expensive given the political instability.

Then again maybe it will just be business as usual.

[midas]

I believe Thailand is headed for a Depression which may last until well into the next decade. They have lost all competitive advantage and the global economy is very competitive. Their one savings grace was cheap labor but most multinationals are likely to reconsider if the cost of this cheap labor is too expensive given the political instability.

Then again maybe it will just be business as usual.

Is it really cheap labour in Thailand? Particularly right now with the disadvantageous exchange rates

but on top of that because of the antiquated education system here where people are not taught

to think outside the box and often with their limited English skills cheap is relative to how

efficient Thai workers are in their productivity........ IMO neighboring countries often more

advantages now regarding some of these points.

[MJP]

I believe Thailand is headed for a Depression which may last until well into the next decade. They have lost all competitive advantage and the global economy is very competitive. Their one savings grace was cheap labor but most multinationals are likely to reconsider if the cost of this cheap labor is too expensive given the political instability.

Then again maybe it will just be business as usual.

It won't compete.

If there is, in fact, anything to compete for.

Yes, Thailand has become expensive. But it's not all about money, it's a sufficiency economy and they will survive.

BTW, I think it's about to become very cheap again, very quickly.

[phaethon]

BTW, I think it's about to become very cheap again, very quickly.

If you could arrange for that to happen in the next three weeks, I'd consider it a personal favour...

Ta.

K.

[george]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

[IMA_FARANG]

I have spoken with a lot of Thai people of late and I keep hearing the same concerns. Factorys are closing; small buisinesses are giving up the ghost, - and things will get worse. With no welfare system and a dysfunctional political system - they are very concerned. Only the zombies don't understand and they will only add to the problems as things deteriorate.

How concerned are you?

In case you hadn't noticed there is a worldwide "economic downturn" (as the optomists like to call it) beginning. Thailand will not be immune, as it's economy is based upon exports and tourisim, both of which are likely to slump signifigantly. So Thailand will feel it's share of the pain.

If you look at the history of Thailand in the last century (or more) you will see the times when everything was down and the doomsayers were predicting the end of Thailand. it didn't happen then, and it won't happen now. The people will survive the hard times. They really don't have a choice do they?

I once knew a Dutch man, originally born in Indonesia, who spent time in a Japanese POW camp in Thailand during World War II. He told me just after the war, Thailand was made nearly destitute by the war and it's results. This man took a job as a armed security guard at a Thai mining company. The reason they hired him was:

1. As a Farang he was bigger than the Thais around him.

2. He was an ex soldier and knew how to use guns.

He was not paid in money, but they provided 3 meals a day, and he was hungry. A lot ot Thais also were hungry. This was about 1946 or 1947. That was a very bad time, and there were armed gangs roaming around the countryside looking for something to steal, but mainly looking for food.

Since I first came to Thailand in 1977, a middle class has developed, especially in the cities. Thailand will survive because of it's people who are, in the long run, it's real asset.

[MJP]

BTW, I think it's about to become very cheap again, very quickly.

If you could arrange for that to happen in the next three weeks, I'd consider it a personal favour...

Ta.

K.

I'll talk to the wife. She's the main reason for inflation in Thailand.

[Theyreallrubbish]

Its not just the cost of labour. Manufacturing these days is part of global systems of logistics with just in time manufacturing requiring uninterrupted supplies. The vast majority of Thai manufacturing is not making things from scratch but producing components for shipping elsewhere or receiving components for final assembly. Thailand doesn't have vertically integrated industries (apart from food processing) where the entire process is done in country

The political disruptions in the past never affected transportation of goods. This time it has.

I believe that manufacturers will be very wary about making their factories elsewhere dependent on Thailand now that disruption has been shown to be possible. This means that investment in new factories will fall and orders from existing factories will also fall once their existing contracts end as companies seek to reduce risk by sourcing from more stable countries.

Also, what manufacturer is going to order from a Thai factory or build a factory in Thailand when their staff may not be able to come in to conduct quality assurance or may get trapped in the country. Insurance alone will make them look at alternative locations.

[cclub75]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

You have a very good point here. From an economic perspective... Indeed, better to be poor under the sun and on a land when food grows in a snap... rather than to be in Paris or London... I mean when the sxxx hits the fan.

But you might discard the political risks.

Things could become really burning when the inevitable will happen... You know...

At that moment, I really think that Paris or London will be much comfortable... Even with a depression... and bad weather.

[MJP]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

You have a very good point here. From an economic perspective... Indeed, better to be poor under the sun and on a land when food grows in a snap... rather than to be in Paris or London... I mean when the sxxx hits the fan.

But you might discard the political risks.

Things could become really burning when the inevitable will happen... You know...

At that moment, I really think that Paris or London will be much comfortable... Even with a depression... and bad weather.

Saw this coming five years ago and planned accordingly.

Got houses built, wells drilled, farmland bought.

Yes, rather LOS than the dire misery of the UK. Heading out January to see out the coming nightmare.

[nostradumbass]

Agreed, if exports and tourism are hit, Thailand will suffer - but this will be temporary - as Thailand has a reputation as a world-class tourist destination.

What really stumps me is the over-confidence of the Thai people in staging the recent strike blocking the airport to get their demands met. They have effectively hijacked the government at the expense of their own country's economical future. Being from country that depends on tourism, they should know better than anyone else that a bad experience leaves a bitter taste in the customer's mouth. Any foreign tourists who experienced that will not want to return to Thailand - thus irreversible damage has been caused.

Political self-determination or hidden, dark character-defects brought to the surface? Does the general Thai population reflect this behavior or was it a select-group with a political agenda, or was the it entirely motivated by a member of an opposing political party? Anyone has answers?

BTW, in response to someone else comment on this thread about Thai middle-class, the Thai middle-class are not that great - they are as ruthless and snobbish as only the rich can be in Thailand. I guess culture and the fact that they have achieved something significant to arise out of poverty has a lot to do with it. But agreed that they do play a major role in driving the economy. They just need to refine the approach - esp. with regard to discrimination against foreigners participating in business / investing.

[if I am wrong or being discriminatory in this post, someone please point it out to me, I will edit out the offending remarks. I am only making my opinions heard and not seeking flame wars or rebuttals. I am an Indian expat who visited Thailand once in 2007 and actually liked it because it was clean, cheap, quality-conscious and business-friendly, and I made a couple of friends that I can actually trust.]

[thailandjunkie]

Country in a shambles. However, spent the other day at the beach....beautiful clear water, blue skies, beer for Bt60 and pad thai for Bt80. OK times are tough but Thailand does have certain attractions that can't be screwed-up by the politicians. And agree with the post above...rather spend next year in a Country with a possible civil war scenario than one where i freeze my bits off as soon as i step outside.

Thailand will recover....just going to take a lot longer than it normally does.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[Soutpeel]

Agreed, if exports and tourism are hit, Thailand will suffer

Exports and toursim have already been hit, its really more of a question of how bad the hit will be..Thailand is already suffering..

[Rabeang]

I have a vested business interest in Thailand and I am feeling the effects of the global recession. I still make enough to survive, but I've had to tighten my belt (well my wife had to anyway).

[MJP]

I have a vested business interest in Thailand and I am feeling the effects of the global recession. I still make enough to survive, but I've had to tighten my belt (well my wife had to anyway).

You too huh?

Ever find that, as a man, you work yourself to death, only to have a fishing tackle as your only material possession?

And I don't even go fishing.

[dageshi]

Thailand does have some reasonable infrastructure compared to it's neighbouring countries (malaysia excepted) you don't get power brownouts here, the roads are good, rail system runs to pretty strategically important places. If for the love of god the Thai's could sort out their political system they'd be well on the way to being an exceptionally successful country, that seems to be the major thing holding them back now.

[PeaceBlondie]

I hate to say it, and will try to say it carefully. Political-socio-economic tensions threaten to destroy this country. Modernism is clashing with feudalism Such a clash cost Russia 80 years of darkness. Mai bpen rai will not solve problems. We farang and the Thais will survive, but not without social disruption. And the Thais saw enough and read enough to be worried. Just because they do not talk about it does not mean they are not scared shitless.

[Martian]

I am with the side that believes that even with the global economic downturn and the, yet to be seen, damage from the recent protest it is better waiting out the global thing in LOS than in the west. My savings, earnings and LOS salary will go much further in LOS. I can almost live a whole month in LOS on what I pay for monthly utilities in the west. This of course takes into consideration that I already have a Thai wife, house and family etc. in LOS.

I too believe that things will become cheaper in LOS once again over the next few months. Less demand (given equal supply) results in lower prices. If oil can go from $145 to $40 a barrel in just a few months, it is quite possible that Somtom can go from 25 Baht to 20.......a 20% reduction in price!

Regards,

Martian

[thaihome]

I hate to say it, and will try to say it carefully. Political-socio-economic tensions threaten to destroy this country. Modernism is clashing with feudalism Such a clash cost Russia 80 years of darkness. Mai bpen rai will not solve problems. We farang and the Thais will survive, but not without social disruption. And the Thais saw enough and read enough to be worried. Just because they do not talk about it does not mean they are not scared shitless.

Agreed, the PAD is trying very hard to stop the fuedalism that allows Thaksin and his upcoutnry cronies to rig every election that is held.

The next 6-9 months is going to be very scary for the entire world. To me the biggest problem is going to what happens to the 300 million migrant workers in China when they don't have jobs anymore.

TH

[patklang]

The whole world is suffering with the credit crunch,terrorism,etc so why worry we all die somtime.

[fnprop]

Agreed, the PAD is trying very hard to stop the fuedalism that allows Thaksin and his upcoutnry cronies to rig every election that is held.

And maintain the stranglehold that their own warlords have had on the country.

But expect a backlash against farangs...the airport closings were the first shot. The offshore press is doing what Thaksin has threatened, and the Western governments have given a warning by mentioning "failed state" and "Thailand" in the same breath.

[JimmyTheMook]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

This is so true - as pissed as I am about the recent lapse of common sense (cough!) , mostly everyone of my peers back in the states said I would be crazy to want to return there now.

So I will sit tight in my comfortable little reality here in LOS for the time being.

[MJP]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

This is so true - as pissed as I am about the recent lapse of common sense (cough!) , mostly everyone of my peers back in the states said I would be crazy to want to return there now.

So I will sit tight in my comfortable little reality here in LOS for the time being.

That's my intention if the jobs in Taiwan don't happen. Can't think of a better place than Issan to do this.

If you're going to be poor, at least up there they are good at it and get by.

[RAZZELL]

Agreed, if exports and tourism are hit, Thailand will suffer - but this will be temporary - as Thailand has a reputation as a world-class tourist destination.

Not anymore

RAZZ

[Naam]

Agreed, if exports and tourism are hit, Thailand will suffer - but this will be temporary - as Thailand has a reputation as a world-class tourist destination.

:D

[Jingthing]

Thailand will survive this depression quite good. Here is the best place to just sit and wait it out. Wanna go back to Farangland and wait?

This is so true - as pissed as I am about the recent lapse of common sense (cough!) , mostly everyone of my peers back in the states said I would be crazy to want to return there now.

So I will sit tight in my comfortable little reality here in LOS for the time being.

I get the same message with one caveat.

If you are lucky enough to have a pile of cash, and you think you will be returning to the US someday, now is a historic opportunity to buy housing there super cheap.

[Hairy]

I get the same message with one caveat.

If you are lucky enough to have a pile of cash, and you think you will be returning to the US someday, now is a historic opportunity to buy housing there super cheap.

Next year will be an even more historic opportunity to buy housing here even super cheaper.

Pretty much everyone except the NAR admits that prices will fall another 20% before the declines stop.