Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?

[ray23]

Everbank says on their website that the Chinese Renmimbi account is a high risk, emerging market investment. Can anyone explain to me what the risk is? Aside from the fact that they pay 0% interest on that account, I mean...isn't the Renmimbi's eventual rise considered pretty certain? How could I lose money on that investment?

Thanks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The pressure on China to do something about the RMB/Yuan is immense, especially by the US but also Japan and Europe.

It's difficult to judge what 'Beijing' will do about this. The enormous financial 'powers' worldwide would like to see the RMB rise against the other currencies.

Buying RMB is still a risk I would say, since nobody knows what will happen in the foreseeable future. China is heavily trying to cool down the economy. Amongst others it is now very difficult for private people AND companies to get extra loans and thus the sales of homes and cars for instance is rapidly going down.

If 'Beijing' succeeds in the cool-down remains to be seen, since Jan 1 all the protection measurements for textiles (for instance) has been cut to zero. Beijing said to the US and Europe that they would tax extra on textile-exports but they didn't say when and how much...

If they export too much (and that will happen!) Europe/US could take protection against the massive imports from China, resulting in an economic 'war' since China will come with their counter-attacks.

If the RMB rises, it still will be difficult to judge if one should buy the RMB since there is a big difference in buying/selling-price in RMB so you will loose when you will try to sell the RMB on the market again.

All-in-all...difficult to judge

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just thought this was very interesting what a role reversal, sounds like the good old US of A is getting some of those Euros.

Business - Reuters

Weak Dollar Lures Travelers to U.S.

Sat Dec 25, 7:58 AM ET Business - Reuters

By Deena Beasley

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A weaker U.S. dollar is fueling pent-up demand for overseas travel to the United States, helping to pad the bottom lines of hotels and tourist attractions.

Related Quotes

HOT

MAR

HLT

58.50

63.24

22.56

-0.40

+0.04

-0.01

Delayed Data

Providers - Disclaimer

Exchange rates "are having a terrific impact on our business, particularly in east coast cities like New York, Boston and Orlando," Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE:HOT - news) spokeswoman K.C. Kavanagh said on Tuesday. "December has been packed with European travelers coming here to Christmas shop."

This year the nation is on track to post the first increase in inbound travel since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, according to the Travel Industry Association of America.

"What is fueling this is a combination of pent-up demand for travel to the U.S. and phenomenal exchange rates," said Cathy Keefe, a spokeswoman with the travel association.

The U.S. dollar is near an all-time low against the euro, which began circulating in January 2002, and is close to a five-year low against the Japanese yen. The British pound is trading at nearly two to a dollar.

"It's a big bargain to come out here. If you get a decent airfare you can go shopping and still be ahead of the game," said Dieter Huckestein, president of hotel operations owned and managed at Hilton Hotels Corp. (NYSE:HLT - news).

He said business is up about 40 percent in Hawaii compared with a year ago, driven by Asian tourism, and hotel demand is also up substantially in New York and Florida as European visitors flock to the east coast.

After 2001, travel to the United States plummeted amid terrorism fears compounded by a worldwide economic slump, the build-up to the war in Iraq (news - web sites) and the war itself.

The trade association projects that the nation will host 43.5 million international tourists this year, up 7.5 percent from last year. In 2000, the total of foreign visitors reached 51 million.

VISITS UP BY DOUBLE DIGITS

Through September, U.S. inbound travel was up 12.5 percent compared with a year earlier, while travel from Western Europe was up 15.3 percent and visits from Asia rose 22.5 percent.

Attendance has grown by double digits this year at Universal Studios Hollywood, according to Don Skeoch, the theme park's senior vice president of marketing and sales. "Demand is strong from our key markets of the Pacific Rim -- Japan, China, Korea and Australia -- as well as Mexico and Canada. We also do strong business out of the U.K.," he said.

In addition to currency rates, Skeoch attributed the pick-up in international visits to waning terrorism fears and new movie-themed park attractions such as the Revenge of the Mummy ride.

Hilton's Huckestein said the absence of a big health scare, like SARS (news - web sites) or the Avian flu, is also helping tourism to recover.

Marriott International (NYSE:MAR - news) is seeing a 30 percent uptick in European arrivals at its properties in San Francisco, and a 10 percent increase in New York, according to spokesman John Wolf.

"We're also allotting more rooms to overseas travel agents -- the folks who book package deals," he said.

The Marriott Marquis in New York's Times Square has more than 1,600 employees who speak 70 languages and dialects.

"It's been a very long recovery in international travel, but people are more confident now," said the Travel Industry Association's Keefe. "Not only are there more tourists, but they are spending a lot more money -- extending their trip, taking side trips and eating at more expensive restaurants."

But the biggest impact has been on shopping, which is always a big draw for international visitors, she said.

[Harmonica]

Ravisher,

Your comments (several posts earlier) on "reading people" are right on the money.

This is the 2nd time (in as many days) you've made prescient, perhaps inadvertent, comments relating to powerful, extant fields within the scope of Technical Analysis.

Your insight is sharp; perhaps investing/trading MIGHT be something you'd take a shine to.

The analysis of general sentiment of the investing public is a very remunerative field and Lord knows it requires a "set of brass balls" to apply correctly, for it's greatest value is in resisting the temptation to go with the herd at pivotal points in market progression.

Take a look at the state of the current property market in Thailand. We already know that the market in UK was out of control and appears to now have reversed. Ditto for stateside prop. market. Interest rates are on the rise and despite the fact that many are arguing whether the stateside market has reversed or not, I can say with relative ease that its days are numbered and that one would be foolish to buy now. This is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL.

As for LOS, just looking at Phuket as an example of the sheer "madness at market tops" is an education in itself. Remember the currency crisis period of 1997-98? I was not here then, but have studied it as much as I could. My thoughts, humbly proffered are, "its about to resume and give us the final, devastating leg down." SELL SELL SELL all investment prop.

This is the time to RENT RENT RENT..

By 2006-2008 it will be the time to BUY BUY BUY!

Caution: Please folks, this is only my opinion and remember that this is a public board. If you are inclined to just jump in and follow my or anyone else's financial advice blindly, don't do it! Do your own anlaysis, and act responsibly, for it is your own hard-earned dough that's at stake!

Happy New Year!

[Harmonica]

Ravisher,

Indian food? Now you're really talking.

[jbaldwin]

The lowest risk strategy is to hold assets in the currency in which your future spending will be made ie if you are going to stay in Thailand for ever the lowest risk would be to hold asset in Thai baht. However, the problem is that the level of return (eg the interest rate on cash balances) in Thailand is low.

Betting on future exchange rates, particularly in the short term is a mugs game. However, over the long run exchange rate tend to move to level prices in different currencies. This suggests that over time the dollar will gain against the Euro and Pound but fall all asian currencies including the Thai Baht

[Yangpuss]

Everbank says on their website that the Chinese Renmimbi account is a high risk, emerging market investment. Can anyone explain to me what the risk is? Aside from the fact that they pay 0% interest on that account, I mean...isn't the Renmimbi's eventual rise considered pretty certain? How could I lose money on that investment?

Thanks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The pressure on China to do something about the RMB/Yuan is immense, especially by the US but also Japan and Europe.

It's difficult to judge what 'Beijing' will do about this. The enormous financial 'powers' worldwide would like to see the RMB rise against the other currencies.

Buying RMB is still a risk I would say, since nobody knows what will happen in the foreseeable future. China is heavily trying to cool down the economy. Amongst others it is now very difficult for private people AND companies to get extra loans and thus the sales of homes and cars for instance is rapidly going down.

If 'Beijing' succeeds in the cool-down remains to be seen, since Jan 1 all the protection measurements for textiles (for instance) has been cut to zero. Beijing said to the US and Europe that they would tax extra on textile-exports but they didn't say when and how much...

If they export too much (and that will happen!) Europe/US could take protection against the massive imports from China, resulting in an economic 'war' since China will come with their counter-attacks.

If the RMB rises, it still will be difficult to judge if one should buy the RMB since there is a big difference in buying/selling-price in RMB so you will loose when you will try to sell the RMB on the market again.

All-in-all...difficult to judge

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thanks, usatrader and laopo. Why is the buy-sell spread in RMB larger than with other currencies? How large is it?

I'm going to Vietnam in a few months to see if I like it well enough to live there. How should that affect my currency decisions?

Edited December 26, 2004 by Yangpuss

[pantarei]

It is just a matter of time until the US $ will steadily advance against the Euro.

Fundamental reason - it is undervalued relative to the Euro.  A classical case of an overcorrection based on emotion.

“Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a theory which states that exchange rates between currencies are in equilibrium when their purchasing power is the same in each of the two countries. This means that the exchange rate between two countries should equal the ratio of the two countries' price level of a fixed basket of goods and services.”

Merry Christmas and Happy (contrarian) Investing.

Who cares about purchasing power? Thats purely theoretical. The average American consumes and spends much more than the average European!

Lets note -

P(us) = "price level of an average consumption basket in US"

P(eur) = "price level of an average consumption basket in Europe"

I think it will be closer to the truth to say that the exchange rate will be P(us)/P(eur).

Still it's far from being accurate. May be it'll better to take "price of imported items in an average consuming basket". Anyway it seems like PPP assumes that consumer patterns in the countries compared are identical which is FAR from the truth!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

(I)

If (i) the average American consumes and spends much more than the average European and (ii) the exchange rate is P(us)/P(eur), as defined by you, then the dollar should be stronger than the euro. Is the dollar > the euro?

(ii) ”Anyway it seems like PPP assumes that consumer patterns in the countries compared are identical which is FAR from the truth!”

Nonsense. Why? Because –

The exchange rate between two countries is equal to the ratio of the two countries' price level of a FIXED basket of goods and services. “Fixed basket” means (literally) a comparison of apples with apples (1kg of Fuji apples in euros vs 1kg of Fuji apples in $$, etc, etc).

“The simplest way to calculate purchasing power parity between two countries is to compare the price of a ‘standard’ good that is in fact identical across countries. The basis for PPP is the ‘law of one price’. In the absence of transportation and other transaction costs, competitive markets will equalize the price of an identical good in two countries when the prices are expressed in the same currency. For example, a particular TV set that sells for 750 Canadian Dollars in Vancouver should cost 500 US Dollars in Seattle when the exchange rate between Canada and the US is 1.50 CAD/USD. If the price of the TV in Vancouver was only 700 CAD, consumers in Seattle would prefer buying the TV set in Vancouver. If this process is carried out at a large scale, the US consumers buying Canadian goods will bid up the value of the Canadian Dollar, thus making Canadian goods more costly to them. This process continues until the goods have again the same price. There are three caveats with this law of one price. (1) As mentioned above, transportation costs, barriers to trade, and other transaction costs, can be significant. (2) There must be competitive markets for the goods and services in both countries. (3) The law of one price only applies to tradeable goods; immobile goods such as houses, and many services that are local, are of course not traded between countries.”

(II)

The PPP is a theory. There is an obvious way to test most theories. Theories that are not supported by empirical data are rejected (by reasonable people). Theories that are supported by empirical data can be used to predict future trends (with caution). The PPP happens to be supported by empirical data.

There is a very high probability that the euro/$ trend will reverse. The main issue is the timing of the reversal. This cannot be predicted from a probabilistic point of view because it involves unpredictable factors such as manipulation by central banks and speculators (e.g., Soros and the Brit pound), and human emotion (as eloquently discussed by Ravisher).

Conclusions:

(1) There will be a trend reversal in the US $/euro trend. The timing is impossible to predict (most likely time frame – within the next 5 years).

(2) Before you post in the future, please disengage the exclamation mark and cap keys and engage your brain. Being wrong is a part of everybody’s learning process; emphasizing one’s wrongness with exclamation marks and caps is pathetic.

[~G~]

(I)

If (i) the average American consumes and spends much more than the average European and (ii) the exchange rate is P(us)/P(eur), as defined by you, then the dollar should be stronger than the euro.  Is the dollar > the euro?  

The convention is indeed determined by the leading currency, in this case how many dollars can you get for 1 euro. My formula gives euros per dollar. Obviously if you want to stick to conventions it should be P(eur)/P(us).

There are three caveats with this law of one price. (1) As mentioned above, transportation costs, barriers to trade, and other transaction costs, can be significant. (2) There must be competitive markets for the goods and services in both countries. (3) The law of one price only applies to tradeable goods; immobile goods such as houses, and many services that are local, are of course not traded between countries.”

Well? Why you ignore (1) and (3)? Regarding (1), Transportation costs are indeed signifact in trade between US and Europe (less so in your Canadian example). Regarding (3), "local services" are included in PPP index. Don't they?

(II)

The PPP is a theory.  There is an obvious way to test most theories.  Theories that are not supported by empirical data are rejected (by reasonable people).  Theories that are supported by empirical data can be used to predict future trends (with caution).  The PPP happens to be supported by empirical data. 

There are many theories supported by empirical data of this or other kind. Each theory has its own supporters, who will argue with passion (as you have demonstrated) for its superiority over others. Each group ignores the cases in which the theory doesn't work, giving 1001 excuses for its failure. Usually over-simplified theories are very popular in spite of many inconsistencies.

  

Conclusions:

(1) There will be a trend reversal in the US $/euro trend.  The timing is impossible to predict (most likely time frame – within the next 5 years). 

No argue about that. I do believe however that it won't be in the next 2 years.

(2) Before you post in the future, please disengage the exclamation mark and cap keys and engage your brain.  Being wrong is a part of everybody’s learning process; emphasizing one’s wrongness with exclamation marks and caps is pathetic.

I humbly thank you, Mr. infinite wisdom, for enlightening stupid pathetic old me.

Edited December 27, 2004 by ~G~

[mbkudu]

Ravisher, what makes you think the USA wants to push the dollar up? I think the government wants it this way. It's their way of saying '#### the world,' and especially Europe.

[~G~]

I agree with you entirely on your comments about 'theories'.

I would not bet money right at this moment re. the timing of the US dollar rising aginst the Euro. If the USA can jump in a HUGE way to help in this earthquake/sunami disater and SHOW the world that it is not just a bully boy... but can actully work as a 'saviour' as well... world opinion 'could' change in a New York minute. This I believe would help to push up the US Dollar in the 'short term' and money could be made there. Every action has a reaction... and we do not know what actions/reactions will take place in the next 2-5 years.

pantarei's last comment got up my nose too     

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We all state our opinions based on a hypothetic world, free of abnormalities, unexpexted occurances and chaotic events... And then surprised again and again.

Whether our idea of the world is close to "absolute truth" (if such is existing) or not is of no relevance in that case... Having created a fixed image of the way "the world works" in our minds we attach to it and feel threatened by different views...

[mbkudu]

Ravisher, what makes you think the USA wants to push the dollar up? I think the government wants it this way. It's their way of saying '#### the world,' and especially Europe.

If you read my earlier post/s mbkudu, that is exactly what I said earlier. I said the dollar is low by 'design'.

I still hope that does not stop them helping out in a 'big' way in this latest disaster. And I think this would push the dollar up in the 'short term' where money could be made. It would then drop again once the memory of the aid faded, which would take about 3 -4 weeks.

Let's see what happens and what the USA does, or does not do, about this crisis and how it affects the dollar?

Sorry, wasn't paying close enough attention. I think Bush has offered 4.0 million

$US as relief. If that does anything then I'll eat my hat.

[usatrader]

Not sure why you would want to eat your hat?

But for the record in this time of human devastation when all should rally to support those affected. Donations and blood should be upmost on our minds.

U.S. dispatches disaster teams; prepares $15 million in aid

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0...4696432,00.html

The United States dispatched disaster teams Monday and prepared an initial $15 million aid package to the Asian countries hit by a massive earthquake and tsunamis. U.S. officials were seeking to contact hundreds of Americans who remain unaccounted for in the region.

U.S. officials immediately sent $100,000 each to India, Indonesia, the Maldives and Sri Lanka, and planned to donate $4 million later Monday to help Red Cross disaster efforts, Powell said.

My humble prayers and regrets for anyone harmed in all this madness.

I know everyone will rally to the cause as best they can with what they can.

That is all.

just listening to the foreign aid coming in;

Australia A$10,000,000 + 2 planeloads aid products

EU 25 nations Euro 3,000,000

USA US$ 100,000

seems something wrong with this equation

Edited December 27, 2004 by usatrader

[TizMe]

A couple of thousand people die on September 11 a few years ago and the US is willing to spend billions of dollars to wage war in Iraq and Afganistan.

50,000 mostly Asians die and now they are willing to spend only a few million.

Edited December 29, 2004 by TizMe

[LaoPo]

A couple of thousand people die on September 11 a few years ago and the US is willing to spend billions of dollars to wage war in Iraq and Afganistan.

50,000 mostly Asians die and now they are willing to spend only a few million.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think America cannot afford to improve thier 'image' in the world, for fear of the dollar rising. I am sure the low dollar is by design... and no accident. I think they will do 'just enough' to keep world opinion as it is.

What is amazing to me is... the world is now in shock over this earthquake/sunami and it will eventually take the lives of around 100,000 people. This is a time to reflect on what WE humans do in War. Close to 10 MILLION in WW11 alone. Now we have the power to do that damage with ONE Atomic bomb. Why are we in such awe of the destructive power of nature. Nature is a pussy cat compared with the destructive power and nature of man.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ravisher:

It has been as few hours since I read your comment.

Maybe it's (since my Mother-tongue is not English) that I don't understand your comment really well, but must tell you that my bloodpressure and heartbeat went up, really HIGH, when I saw your comment.

I am sorry but THIS IS N O T the time to reflect what WE humans do in War.

Yes, 10 million died in WWII, but this was because of a war, and during 5/6 years... and that's about 5/6000 a day..a devastating number of people died.

The TSUNAMI DISASTER however happened in just a few minutes in PIECETIME...

and took (most likely) well over 100.000 innocent people in 1 DAY! (minutes)

and cannot be compared as a 'pussycat' with destruction what mankind can do to each other by means of an atomic bomb.

I admire your, sometimes, wise and intelligent comments but this time you are far beyond anything HUMAN!

In fact I think you made an extremely stupid comparison.

LaoPo

[Dickie]

The dollar sliding will have other repercussions. Many of the oil-producing states sold their oil for USD only. This meant that anyone apart from the US had to by USD from the US to pay for their oil, meaning fat commissions for the US. If the US wanted oil it just printed money.

Now a falling dollar means less profits for the OPEC, so some have already switched to selling for euros (Iraq did before it was invaded) and many others are considering the move. This gives the US a double-whammy: the loss of commission on selling dollars to countries wanting oil is substantial and the US now needs to buy foreign currency and PAY rather than receive commission on currency exchange.

The idea that the dollar will rise is probably credible as the current situation can't last for very long and I can't see the US government wanting euroland to have "control" of the world's oil trade, hence the currency will rise.

[Yangpuss]

Harmonica, why have all your posts mysteriously disappeared from this thread, and even references to them in other posters' quoted replies have vanished?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, why have all your posts mysteriously disappeared from this thread, and even references to them in other posters' quoted replies have vanished?

Because the US Dollar Index has made up 60% of the net loss for entire 2004 in, how many days? ... 16 days!!!!!

Next post I'll repeat my starting post from december 23rd

[Harmonica]

So let me repeat my December 23rd post, OK?

Fellas,

As softly as ever, with just a shhhh, may I humbly, oh, ever so gently, coax you, guide you and urge you to

start ACCUMULATING Dollars (USD).

Do it "saaalowwleee" every week, a "leeetle beet" at a time.

Do this while every mothers' son is negative the Dollar.

Sentiment plays a huge role in overall market success and I believe we are at a dramatic, historical turning point. A bottom is being formed currently. No. no, not that kind of bottom!

There is not ONE dude who's +ve the Dollar--that's why I'm hiding and am only just whispering to you. I've taken too many bullets in the past and I'm a wee bit gunshy. The shooters later came back to cuddle & fondle me, but I'm not into that sort of thing.

Four years in Thailand and I'm getting very lonely making decent money in the markets. No office required, no overhead, just Tech. analysis, a computer, 4 Brokerage accounts, and guts to go against the HERD. The CNBC (and other)experts will ruin you! I've already told them to "piss off", the lying, BS mothers.

It hurts & torments me to see that so many wildebeast are just going to jump into the river full of hungry crocs with narry a thought that it is a classic bear-trap.

It is dangerous to be different and go against the multitude, the crowd, for in the end it is only a teeeeeny-weeeeny %age of cats that profit. These profits come from the herd's losses.

Give it some thought my friends. Just think about it, thats all I ask.

God bless you all for you've opened a door to a vista (this topic) I just plain love and by all measures, it loves me.

Adios

Harmonica

End of December 23rd post --

[Harmonica]

So what's he (USD Index) doing out there? Why is he just sitting there and not moving much?

He's whittling on a piece of wood -- I've got the feeling that when he stops whittling, something's going to happen!

He hit 84 and then backed down a bit -- what's so great about 84? .. Right above it is 85. What's so great about 85? ... there is a regiment of SELLERS out there who are going to unload in vast quantities.

-- why do I love it so? ... because, there in the distance, and coming from below, is an entire battalion of BUYERS -- a pitched battle is about to take place -- that's why my STOPLOSS line is in place. I'm insured, but watching for the inevitable shift in the balance of power will tell me whether a NEW uptrend is at hand or whether its back to another few dopey weeks of downtrend and weaker Dollar.

Chuggalugga chumbey!!!!

[Harmonica]

And Greenie is getting ready to send rates upward at an accelerated pace! That's the smile on the dollar's face as he was whittling on the piece of wood.

[Yangpuss]

Well, all of this is well and good, Harmonica, but it doesn't answer my question. Why did you delete all your posts and how did you manage to delete the quotes of your posts in other people's posts???

As for me, I still have not made a move with my savings, mainly because of all this uncertainty. But I might do so soon.

Boy, the American public would have to be pretty brain dead to let Bush go at Iran after all he's done already. I'm not sure they are quite stupid enough to permit that. But they might be.

[Khun ?]

Bill Gross who manages 300 Billion ( Pimco funds) doesn't agree with you.

He says inflation is not the monster to need the raising of short term interest rates

much more and the soft economy will win over the FED. I am nuetral on the isssue

and have investments that will do ok in either market situation.

Penny stocks, I have none and would not recommend them for others.

  And Greenie is getting ready to send rates upward at an accelerated pace!  That's the smile on the dollar's face as he was whittling on the piece of wood.   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[PeaceBlondie]

All right you guys, I don't know much about technical analysis. I started exchanging my cash dollars for cash baht a couple of months ago when the exchange rate was 41:1. It's now about 38.6:1, and the 3-month trend looks straight downward (weaker dollar). I don't regret all those conversions I made at 40:1. Don't think I'll do any more, but I'll probably pay US$2000 for airplane tickets in March for my RTWT in April.

Anybody care to guess if the sinking dollar (against the baht) will reverse in February or March?

[LaoPo]

All right you guys, I don't know much about technical analysis.  I started exchanging my cash dollars for cash baht a couple of months ago when the exchange rate was 41:1.  It's now about 38.6:1, and the 3-month trend looks straight downward (weaker dollar).  I don't regret all those conversions I made at 40:1.  Don't think I'll do any more, but I'll probably pay US$2000 for airplane tickets in March for my RTWT in April. 

Anybody care to guess if the sinking dollar (against the baht) will reverse in February or March?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't know the technical analysis either... but watch the 'news' closely. After the Iraq elections are over... any rumbles from the USA regarding Iran or Syria will push the dollar down... any help the USA gives in solving the Israel/Palestine problems will push the dollar up... and nasty flu's in China will push the dollar up... etc etc.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What about the US deficit...? It's higher than ever and Bush asked Congress for another couple of dozen Billions of Dollars for the 'war' or better rebuilding in Iraq...

I'm not quite sure but believe it's around 80-90 Billion already and the deficit is growing and growing...

I wonder on what basis the Dollar will strenghten again? Technical analysis..?

I have more confidence in the Sterling and Euro, not Dollars.

[PeaceBlondie]

The US annual budget deficit is running at over 410 BILLION dollars, and that's really a lot higher if you subtract the pension funds (Social Security) going in and out. The current account (foreign exchange or trade) is much worse. Bush and Congress are spending 1,400 dollars per capita more than they're bringing in with taxes - probably 2,000 if you leave off the pension funds - and there's no end in sight for all this red ink. Then if you consider the unfunded and underfunded pension liabilities, it's much worse.

80 or 90 billion is the estimate for the cost of the Iraq war but that's a wild guess; nobody begins to know; could be 290 or 990 billion (probably around 400 billion before it's over) above the astronomical cost of running the world's police force.

I just withdrew 10,900 baht and it cost $286 plus $3 ATM fee: a yield of 37.7 baht per dollar. A year ago it was more like a net yield of 40.5, so there's roughly 10% loss in a year. Where's the bottom of this curve?

[Harmonica]

Well, all of this is well and good, Harmonica, but it doesn't answer my question. Why did you delete all your posts and how did you manage to delete the quotes of your posts in other people's posts???

As for me, I still have not made a move with my savings, mainly because of all this uncertainty. But I might do so soon.

Boy, the American public would have to be pretty brain dead to let Bush go at Iran after all he's done already. I'm not sure they are quite stupid enough to permit that. But they might be.

Yangpuss,

I have not deleted anything -- thought that only mods could do that sort of thing.

[Harmonica]

All right you guys, I don't know much about technical analysis.  I started exchanging my cash dollars for cash baht a couple of months ago when the exchange rate was 41:1.  It's now about 38.6:1, and the 3-month trend looks straight downward (weaker dollar).  I don't regret all those conversions I made at 40:1.  Don't think I'll do any more, but I'll probably pay US$2000 for airplane tickets in March for my RTWT in April. 

Anybody care to guess if the sinking dollar (against the baht) will reverse in February or March?

PeaceB,

You've done well on that exchange. Congrats!

MY guess on the Baht? Go to 45 by December, then onto 50 and possible past 55 in a couple to 3 years. That means, weak, weak, weak!!!! IMHO, of course!

[Harmonica]

All right you guys, I don't know much about technical analysis.  I started exchanging my cash dollars for cash baht a couple of months ago when the exchange rate was 41:1.  It's now about 38.6:1, and the 3-month trend looks straight downward (weaker dollar).  I don't regret all those conversions I made at 40:1.  Don't think I'll do any more, but I'll probably pay US$2000 for airplane tickets in March for my RTWT in April. 

Anybody care to guess if the sinking dollar (against the baht) will reverse in February or March?

I don't know the technical analysis either... but watch the 'news' closely. After the Iraq elections are over... any rumbles from the USA regarding Iran or Syria will push the dollar down... any help the USA gives in solving the Israel/Palestine problems will push the dollar up... and nasty flu's in China will push the dollar up... etc etc.

What about the US deficit...? It's higher than ever and Bush asked Congress for another couple of dozen Billions of Dollars for the 'war' or better rebuilding in Iraq...

I'm not quite sure but believe it's around 80-90 Billion already and the deficit is growing and growing...

I wonder on what basis the Dollar will strenghten again? Technical analysis..?

I have more confidence in the Sterling and Euro, not Dollars.

LaoPo,

Then why is it kickin ass right now and .. .. giving every sign that it will continue?(?) -- let's give it a few more days, perhaps a couple weeks?

Deficit etc., etc., all valid reasons why the Dollar should go to Argentina; but it ain't, not IMHO anyway.

[Harmonica]

A pic is worth ......

Would some kind soul please show me how to bring a chart (as a jpeg, or whatever) into a reply -- all attempts thus far have failed!

[Harmonica]

LaoPo,

Here's some more for you --

$200 Billion was the "smart" consensus shortly after the beginning of the Iraq war -- what about $2 Trillion, all costs considered? Finally they are admitting to $300 Billion on Iraq and Terror and putting out a new number everyday on the deficit.

Against this "elephant defecating in the trading pit" backdrop, where everyone is looking for someone else to blame (in Govt.), my call is for the US Dollar to continue northbound even if first makes a NEW low -- this is a medium to long-term call!!

[TizMe]

Just wait until things settle some in Iraq and the Israel/Palestine situation settles down some...

My great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren might be around to see that.