All This Talk About Economy Imploding...

[chivo]

there's so much talk about the economy in a downward spiral, and how 'tough' its going to be.

but what are the tangible signs of that?

the collapse of some banking institutions and automotive industries is clear, and this would obviously lead to lay-offs of employees.

what are the specific dominos that will tumble in the chain reaction?

yes this is a broad question, i realise !

[chiangmaibruce]

Not sure if you mean specific to Thailand or not (?) Assuming you do, and just thinking out loud ...

You will see an outwards ripple effect as the bigger businesses wind down then close down ... suppliers first then even the little food stalls out the front. Then even broader afield as local businesses reliant of salaries feel the pinch. Basically you will more and more "for lease" signs or similar.

Here there is no welfare, high level of indebtedness, and no concept of putting money away 'for a rainy day'. So when jobs are lost that means an alternative source of cash needs to be found fast & the choices are one or more of:

*hock any gold depending on whether the local pawn shops have any cash left to lend out

*the temple (food)

*extended family (cash and food and shelter)

Probably involving some movement from the cities to the countryside to be close to extended family and food sources

Probably involving an increase in criminality and certainly increased reneging on payments, abandonment of debt-laden vehicles etc

Obviously limited scope for starting up new small businesses to replace salary income. Anything other than gold will be difficult to sell as everyone else will be in the same boat apart from the very rich (& who don't touch second-hand anything)

All eventually feeding back into winding down (breaking down) of government service provision

<Gotta stop there, I'm depressing myself>