Economic bubbles and miracles

[mrentoul]

A few posters here believe the sharemarket and property are heading for another crash: consumers are on a buying frenzy, fuelled by cheap and unsecured credit.

''Funny money'' is pouring in from abroad, swelling the sharemarket. Property prices are spiralling, and the gap between rich and poor widening....or so we are told.

But is any of this proof of another bust in the making? Put your experience and anecdotes to the test. A few bits of hard evidence wouldn't go amiss, either.

[mrentoul]

Carried over from puritanical thread, now closed:

I am a current investor but that does not mean I am drinking the Kool Aid with everyone else and don't know what's going to happen.

You sound extremly naive, how old are you son ?

I am still waiting for the hard stuff...how about figures showing me how domestic borrowing is soaring, and the level of household debt relative to income?

You are indeed a current investor, and, unless you're the reckless speculator type (perish the thought), you're in it for the medium to long term. In other words, you've made a punt on how the economy/sharemarket will fare, and you like what you see.

My age has nothing to do with it, Dad.

[Butterfly]

It's difficult to find hard evidence to support this. And if there were, it would be too late already. It might not be a crash, but a long and slow crisis.

[mrentoul]

And if there were, it would be too late already. It might not be a crash, but a long and slow crisis.

What, a slow-burning crisis? Never heard of one of those.

You have maintained in previous posts that a crash is on the way.

If you're a wise investor, good evidence *should* be possible to come by. If it's not, then what are you doing here? Cashing in on a boom (speculating) like everyone else?

In setting interest rates and shepherding an economy, a central bank takes into account a mix of anecdotal and hard data: not one or the other.

Try again.

[pnustedt]

Have you heard about the Finance Minister who said that last year the country was poised on the edge of a precipice. "But this year we have made a great leap forward"?

[george]

I have removed a couple of off topics fights / private discussions signed Butterfly and Mrentoul. Please use PM to argue about non-topics. Thanks for keeping the level above kindergarten!

/admin

[plachon]

Well adjudicated there George.

But going back to Mrentoul's point of "why isn't he reading about it", I'd refer him back to my last post in the old thread. Look through it again and the answer should be staring you in the face. Even up to the day before the Bank of Thailand floated the baht, your paper and all the other wise papers were...... none the wiser. Newspapers and economic mags excel at producing post facto news, they don't specialise in crystal ball gazing. But when their writers do make predictions, they tend towards the positive outlooks, they don't want to rock the boat or bite the hand the feeds them. Just look in the Business Post for confirmation of self-serving drivel. Bring back Column 9 if you want to give the section a bit more credibility and impartiality.

But this is going off the thread again. The point I was trying to make in the old thread and will make again, is that bubbles, economic crashes and events that are likely to occur more than 2 years down the road, are the stuff of anecdotes and not hard facts, simply because they haven't yet occurred. Meanwhile national public debt is far greater than it was in 97, household debt is far higher too and climbing rapidly, there's a property bubble afoot again, while Thailand's basic competitiveness I don't see being as far higher. In fact, it's slipping back compared to several other countries. The money being spent now on all Toxin's hare-brained schemes is popular, is stimulating local consumption and will keep him in power for another term, BUT it will also lead to bankruptcy for the country. Pure speculation of course, but what do you expect?

[mowlem]

I think we should call this thread, "Welcome to the real world"

We all have 20/20 hindsight, and we have all probably missed golden opportunities to make money in the past, as well as avoiding some golden lemons as well.

As most investments would be for five years minimum (I'm talking condo, business etc) we are taking medium term views, and my view is as valid as the next persons. Except, if you think Thailand is ready for growth, you're going to be putting a lot of money where you're mouth is. Simple.

[mrentoul]

As most investments would be for five years minimum (I'm talking condo, business etc) we are taking medium term views, and my view is as valid as the next persons. Except, if you think Thailand is ready for growth, you're going to be putting a lot of money where you're mouth is. Simple.

This is just the point I was trying to make. The investors here who are so keen to slag off the economy and its management, with wild predictions of an imminent bust, are the very same people putting their money in the sharemarket and property, where no doubt they hope it will make reasonable returns over the medium to long term.

It doesn't add up or make sense.

[keestha]

Even up to the day before the Bank of Thailand floated the baht, your paper and all the other wise papers were...... none the wiser.

Dont agree here......."your paper" in this case refers to the Bangkok Post. I remember that just before they floated the Baht, the Bangkok Post's business section was rife with speculations that it would become impossible to keep the Baht tied up to the basket of currencies it used to be tied up with in those days. True Thai authorities kept staunchly denying they would ever float the Baht, but for those reading the Bangkok Post or probably any other newspaper, it couldnt possibly have been a complete surprise when the Baht was eventually cut loose.

[mrentoul]

True Thai authorities kept staunchly denying they would ever float the Baht, but for those reading the Bangkok Post or probably any other newspaper, it couldnt possibly have been a complete surprise when the Baht was eventually cut loose.

I'm delighted to hear that, and thanks for pointing it out. I often wonder how much responsibility the media should bear to readers in such cases, and how often they get it right.

The media does not have to be an active champion of increased consumer borrowing or spending to play a part in

an economic bust.

One uncritical report after another of a sharemarket getting hotter by the day might be enough to encourage the investor on the street to risk his savings. ''The sharemarket grew by another XYZ points today''...followed by another bullish report a day later.

If the media here was taking a critical stance before the last collapse, I'm pleased to hear it. The media here is much younger than in the West; so too is freedom of speech, and the willingness to hold governments to account.

[en184]

Thai economy is doing just great.  Unemployment is low, thailand has one of the highest percentage of entrepreneurs in the world, Thailand repaid its IMF loan ahead of time.

Thai shares are still undervalued relative to US assets.  This is because PE ratios are lower in thailand, and it could be argued thailand offers a high growth potential.

There might be a property bubble in certain condos on sukhumvit road, bangkok.  But overall in thailand, there is no property bubble.  It could be argued that sukhumvit and silom are the mayfairs and park lanes of bangkok.

Hence owners of hotels in these locations can expect to do very well.

[caughtintheact]

I reckon that the beginnings of the 97 crash could be seen as early as 1994, when the key words, "overbuilt and undersold" started to appear more and more frequently.  Of course the question now is in which sector of the economy will a bubble or bubbles build first?   Watch things like public company debt-equity ratios in various sectors as well as P-E Ratios.  Don't expect the sources of the next one to be the same as the last one. In 97 it was more the major construction projects, including hotels and luxury condos that moved faster than market demand.  More and more money had to be borrowed to keep the projects going, since the cash flow from sales started to die out.  Now there are not many projects of this type compared to the years leading up to 97.  If developers start building housing projects that the market cannot afford, then we are likely headed for a bubble there.  As long as the projects meet demand in terms of location, cost and perceived quality, there is enough of a long term continuing need and demand for family housing that this should not become a bubble.  

Another factor is whether the banks go back to their old ways of lending money to their relatives and friends with inadeuqate or no collateral, and what the banks are loaning money for.  

Another aspect to look for is whether GDP growth starts hitting double digits again.  

Another thing to ponder is whether the government is telling the truth about the numbers.  And are organizations that contradict government numbers politically motivated to do so or are they better than the government at analyzing what is going on.  My view is that rapid progress always tends toward bubbles unless the foundations of growth are very firm.  One also has to keep in mind that it only takes a major event or two to really mess up a fast growth path....like SARs, a terrorist attack, etc.  

The only crystal ball is correctly reading and analyzing for signals, good or bad.

[Butterfly]

A lot of confusion as expected. Reckoning the start of a bubble does not mean it will blow right away. It could be another 2 or 3 years before it blows. In the meantime everybody will ride the wave until their "risk tolerance" is too low and will leave the place before it blows.

Never trust the numbers here. There are all fakes and "manufactured". But Thailand is not alone in this, Europe and the US have been known for years for doing the same evils. But the problem is that Thailand is an emerging country so it's easier for the big boys in Washington and Brussels to point the finger to Thailand. Very unfair but "Free Economy" has always been "unfair" anyhow so it should come as no surprise.

Yeah the economy got better since Toxin got into power (after years of sacrifice from the previous government) but he is going to "burn" all the accumulated growth through stupid public policies and comsumerism "rethoric". The economy has improved yes, does it mean you have to blow it all on debt and imports ? sure not. Like a drug addict who get cash in his hand, he is going to blow it away on silly things (non-investment). This is sad. Don't count on the IMF to come to the rescue again. See what happened to Argentina when the IMF is tired of playing babysitters with third world countries.

[plachon]

Dagnabit! I'd just written a long and decisive answer providing some of the background and facts to the last crash and why I believe another is in the making in the next 2- 5 years (NOT "imminently" note) and was just near to finishing it, after 40 mins hard work, and ................. the power crashed and I lost the whole <deleted> lot. Peeved, to say the v. least, and I can't be arsed to repeat that exercise over again nor have the time, I'm afraid Mrentoul.

What I would recommend is you unearth, as I did last night, some of the old B. Post mid - year and year end Economic Reviews for 96/97 and you'll see all the "experts", with their fancy formulas and hundreds of years collective experience DID NOT see the crash coming. Maybe in the days running up to July 2, when the baht was being furiously defended by BoT, they speculated that it may be floated, but that is not the same thing, Kreetha, as predicting a crash that spread from Thailand (ground zero) round half of Asia and beyond. i stand by my original assertion.

I would also recommend you read a book by Walden Bello et al., (1978)called a Siamese Tragedy. Development and Disintegration in Modern Thailand (available from White Lotus publishers, which neatly breaks down the cause and effect of the '97 crash. Nothing much has changed since, only a v. powerful PM has got in on a populist and nationalist ticket and is leading his country like the Pied Piper.  

Allow me to quote from page 8:

"Bangkok, in short, became a debtor's instead of a creditor's market, and the easy money, easy credit, and easy terms proved very seductive to the various sectors of Thai society. Thew proliferation of buildings, cars, and shopping malls created the aura of widespread prosperity that at the same time masked  the fact that purchasing power did not have a basis in real wealth but was being artificially created via credit extended from external sources. Consumption and the contraction of credit became the password to the goodlife, and saving and delayed gratification became not virtues but anachronistic habits that it would be stupid to adhere to in an era of easy money."

Now the credit is even easier than 97 due to low interest rates and there's even less incemntive to save (>1 % interest in most accounts). So it's speculate, speculate and speculate. meanwhile flows of foreign money on the stock exchange are being eased up, which means they'll get out bloody quickly too when it turns sour a few years down the road.

I don't expect to have convinced you Mrentoul, but my lost post (oh, why can't these shops have UPS?) would have helped and i would encourage you to read some more into the roots of the last crash. As the saying goes: Two swallows, do not a summer make"

[mrentoul]

the power crashed and I lost the whole <deleted> lot.

I'm sorry to hear about your computer troubles, especially after so much effort.

Thank-you also for your suggested reading. I'm sure I've seen that Bello book floating around at work, or in bookshops.

I wasn't here for the Thai crash (though I can recall two other economic crashes in the country where I used to live). Friends who were here describe a time when people were throwing money around with gay abandon.

I wouldn't mind seeing that, especially if overtime pay really was ''growing on trees'', as one friend put it. These days it's all budget cuts, staffing caps, pared-down bonuses and so on (hardly pre-crash, is it?).

Now the credit is even easier than 97 due to low interest rates and there's even less incemntive to save (>1 % interest in most accounts). So it's speculate, speculate and speculate. meanwhile flows of foreign money on the stock exchange are being eased up, which means they'll get out bloody quickly too when it turns sour a few years down the road.

I have yet to see evidence that Thais are earning so well, and spending so much, that they themselves feel as if the good times are here and will never end.

If the share market halved in value tomorrow, or property prices took a tumble, would the average guy on the street feel it? Would it all come down like a pack of cards?

I define ''crash'' as a cataclysmic event that is felt throughout an economy in a short space of time: businesses closing, people being tossed out of work wherever you look. The conditions aren't ''right'' for another crash immediately (let's hope they never get that way).

Some posters make the case not that the conditions are ripe for a crash now but that in the absence of sufficient controls, perhaps, the government is putting in place policies which could lead to a crash down the track.

That's a fair point, but then we could be talking years down the track, and anything could happen to the economy in that time to retard growth (recall those gloomy predictions about the effect of the Sars crisis, the Gulf war). In Britain the property market has been booming for years, in Sydney likewise. Is anyone there talking about an across-the-board

economic collapse?

The Thai economy is not so pumped up and overheated that recent increases in property/share values support thousands of jobs and businesses created virtually overnight on artificial credit; jobs that rely solely on that credit and which would disappear immediately if that credit was withdrawn.

I don't think the economy is anywhere near that point. So, you're right: you haven't convinced me.

[Vorranuch]

Maybe there is some overheating in the cars and real estate credits granted by the banks.

But seriously this is peanuts in comparison to what really moves the economy in industry, services and agriculture. Do you see overheating in industrial investments? Believe me the banks would be happy to have more companies to lend to. But there is not much new investment due to over-capacity from before the crisis. As a result the banks are very liquid and the consumer loans alone will never absorb the huge cash deposits sitting in the Thai banks.

In a country were exports are more than 65% of the GDP do you expect a few billions $ of home loans to sink the economy ? Real estate is 3% of the GDP.

What made the 1997/1998 crisis a real crisis was the collapse of the baht. Today the reserves stand at $38billion against 27billion in 1997 and the foreign debt has been reduced to 60billion from 82billion in 1997. It is not the domestic consumer credit problems or domestic debt that will make the economy collapse. Look at the US ! The most indebted country in the world ! In the region, look at the dramatic situation in S.Korea with the credit cards. The people and the banks were so confident that now the level of defaults and personal bankruptcies reach levels never seen before. Does it affect the whole economy ? Not that much. Is Korea going towards a new crisis ? I don't think so.

No doubt there are structural problems in Thailand. Maybe there will even be a crash on the stock market (like in the US and in Europe since 2000) but this will certainly not destabilize the whole economy !

[mrentoul]

But there is not much new investment due to over-capacity from before the crisis. As a result the banks are very liquid and the consumer loans alone will never absorb the huge cash deposits sitting in the Thai banks.

In a country were exports are more than 65% of the GDP do you expect a few billions $ of home loans to sink the economy ? Real estate is 3% of the GDP.

Thank-you. Terrific.

What made the 1997/1998 crisis a real crisis was the collapse of the baht. Today the reserves stand at $38billion against 27billion in 1997

More great stuff. Who says figures don't tell a story?

[pnustedt]

In Britain the property market has been booming for years, in Sydney likewise. Is anyone there talking about an across-the-board

economic collapse?

Yes, I've read quite a few articles about the worrying level of private sector borrowing on the back of a booming housing market, a yawning gap in pension funding and other detrimental "facts" regarding the UK economy.

I heard on CNBC just today that the IMF has voiced concern about US budget deficits spiralling out of control.

Mind you, I also read optimistic articles. There's optimists and pessimists everywhere - some find the glass half full, others half empty. I'm sure you can find statistics somewhere to prove either argument - even in the same newspaper!

The pessimists' school is usually reinforced by some event which leads to a loss of confidence - that's when the bubble bursts!

[singa-traz]

Short description of the Asian Crisis: http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/fincrisis.htm

I was in Thailand in 1997, and I can recall that the Baht devaluation was far from being a surprise.

Rumor of Baht Devaluation : Feb 1997

http://www.tfrc.co.th/tfrc....47b.htm

As indicated, it was a known risk well before the month of July 1997 ... For those doing currency trading at that time, it was not a question of whether the Baht would be devaluated ... but, When and How much.

The surprise was more on how it then affected the other countries in Asia ... had "the experts" forecast this part, external intervention to stabilise the Baht might have been decided ...

I actually left Thailand on 2nd of July 1997 ... The Day Thailand adopted the managed-float exchange rate regime.

http://216.239.37.104/search?....e=UTF-8

[plachon]

I see I'm going to have to work harder to convince the cautious optimists and dare I say it, ostriches. To Vorranuch, I'd say it's not going to be a bubble in the property market that is going to be the precursor of the next crash brewing at the moment, but far more complex factors, but which can largely traced back to a lack of addressing the old rot, eating away at the heart of the poles of the structure, and an almost messianic belief that one guy can lead the country to......whatever it is he sees is the destiny of Thailand. The country has never been in the particular position it now finds itself in, where one guy has an almost total control on the reigns (far more so than many of the military dictators of the past, where internal power struggles were much more apparent), and he can lead it down a particular road of his choosing, whether it wants to go or not. This may sound like an exaggeration, but I fear not.

For Mrentoul, who started this thread, but in the old one stated you were missing hard evidence that there was overheating at this stage and thought that the boys at BoT are more than qualified to pre-empt any untoward signals before they signal : DANGER (or words to that effect anyway). Firstly, I would say they made an extermely bad call last time around, and that was hot on the heels of the BBC scandal. Now apart from Rakesh Saxena, who fled to Canada and became a nice scapegoat, I don't think anyone has ever been brought to book for that one, apart from perhaps a few transfers. Now we're talking millions of $ going missing (nothing too unusual perhaps in LOS), and most of it on unsecured loans for overvalued ALRO land cheated from villagers for a few ,000 baht per rai. All the people who got away with that one are still living a life of Reilly, and more than a few are in the present govt., incl. Deputy AGric Minister, as one of the chief protagonists. What does this say about the PM's stated desire to have clean govt., and quash corruption? I could give a hundred other examples, but will spare you, people who read the domestic news and have been here more than a few years know well what is going on, but gradually become desensitized to it.

What has this to do with an economic crash in the making, apart from all the old suspects being in the driving seat again. The thing i'm working towards is that there is now a two decade span of mega-infrastucture projects being over-priced and under-engineered, which are going to start costing the country serious money in maintenance costs in the next few years. So you've got Toxin's new mega-projects which are costing the country a mint, there's a whole slew of under-performing or non-performing state projects (Klong Dan is a classic amongst these), and literally thousands of other performing, but poorly-built assets all needing costly maintenance (the highways are a good example inthis category), which are all going to bankrupt the country, when the economic turnaround comes, as I've predicted in the next 2-5 years. Again not the definitive answer, just one more piece in the jigsaw, which will combine to precipitate the Big One.

And as for the wisdom of the  BoT, I'd point you to an article that appeared in the Business Post on 8/8/03, which tried to reassure punters that a crash wasn't in the making and in any case, would be prevented by monetary policy in time. Written by no less than 3 "experts" at the Office of Central Banking Studies, BoT, it only served to heighten my concern that the BoT only has a very shaky grip on the real world of economics, politics, warts and all, rather than increase my confidence that "things are under control". Make your own judgment, but I would draw your attention to their level of maths ability, which I always thought is an economist's bread and butter, evidenced in the following statement:

"Only one-fourth (40%) of equity (housing) booms are followed by a bust". Bit like Toxin's calculations over the number of people who'll be buying the 1 M Baht VIP card, eh?

Interestingly though, they didn't seem to want to deny that a bubble is underway with Thai assets and stockmarket.

[plachon]

Come on 'toul, 'fly and others, you're not just meekly giving up on this thread are you? It could be the one that decides whether you have a job or not in a few years time.

On the point of not seeing evidence of irrational spending habits and exuberance in the market, I'm wondering if i'm living in the same country as you Mrentoul. I would be a rich guy if i was given 10 baht for everyone in this province alone who's gone out and bought a new car (lots of plush SUV's and flash coupe's) on the basis of what, 10 - 20 k income per month. How do they do it? I keep asking myself. Alright there's usually a bit of funny money coming in if you're a karachagan, but it's lumpy (unless you're a cop), and not ideal for supporting a loan with. My only conclusion is, they are loaned up to the hilt, not thinking that interest rates are at a historically low rate in Thailand and there's only one way for them to go in the next couple of years. Then there's the loan on the TV, fridge, mobile, etc., not to mention the mortgage to pay off. Oh dear, the Repo Man's out the back. Now there's an industry with growth potential Butterfly, I'd lay some money on prospering. :cool:

[Butterfly]

Repo in Thailand ? unfortunately I don't think it will be a growth business in this country. If you have debt, you can transfer your assets to a family member and run away from the country for a few years until the bankers forget about you. Since the assets have been transfered to a new name, they can't hold the assets as collateral for the loans. How is that for a repayment strategy ? not bad. That worked very well before and after 1997 but I am not sure if it still does today (I suspect it does). I actually know a few Thai who did this before 1997 and run away after the crash. They still own the house. And guess what ? they are thinking into buying a new house with the same strategy  

[mrentoul]

I would be a rich guy if i was given 10 baht for everyone in this province alone who's gone out and bought a new car (lots of plush SUV's and flash coupe's) on the basis of what, 10 - 20 k income per month. How do they do it?

I have been asking how Thais do that for as long as I've been here. I am not sure that this is a new thing (people in low-paying jobs driving smart cars). But even if they are in debt...isn't everyone?

I can't remember a time in the West when I had savings in the bank. Ironically, I have more disposable income here than I had in the West, but the banks aren't keen on giving me a loan. They approved a credit card for a Thai guy I live with, but not for me...and I bring in most of the income. I can't figure it out myself.

Thais run informal lending schemes which could help people buy items they could otherwise not afford: ''len share'' is one such scheme.

This is really straying off the point, but with due respect to plachon, I don't think there is much of an argument to address.

The thing i'm working towards is that there is now a two decade span of mega-infrastucture projects being over-priced and under-engineered, which are going to start costing the country serious money in maintenance costs in the next few years.

I can't tackle this, because I don't know if it's true. I know the Japanese bank which lends much of the money for these projects lends at a discounted (and sometimes almost negligible) interest rate, in return for which Thailand lets Japanese contractors do the work.

So you've got Toxin's new mega-projects which are costing the country a mint, there's a whole slew of under-performing or non-performing state projects (Klong Dan is a classic amongst these)

Some of these so-called under-performing state projects aren't even off the ground yet, contrary to popular belief.

[plachon]

Do me a favour Mrentoul "aren't even off the ground yet". Please go down and look at klong Dan - it's definitely off the mangrove swamp it was built on. And then, according to a front page report in your paper not more than 4 months ago, there are 57 (I think the figure was), waste water treatment projects built at mega millions of dollars sitting idle around the country, for one reason or another. Then there's Rasi Salai Dam and a whole load of others under the same K_C_M Project just wasting assets, in more ways than one. And I haven't even mentioned Hopewell yet, which you don't have to go that far to see. In fact, anyone who enters Thailand via Don Muang, wants to know what those megaliths are over the railway lines. Talking of airports, is nong Ngu Hao really gonna become the regional air hub or just another expensive (V. expensive ) mistake?

Get out of Bangers a bit and smell the flowers.

[TRIPxCORE]

Well I am not in a position to determine if there will be an economic crash or not.  I do know one thing for sure though.  If there is indeed a crash in LOS, I am not missing out on it like I did 97-98.  An economic crash will eventually create great investment/buying opportunities and I will be there to pounce on them.  

    Now I know some may criticize me for trying to profit off of someone else's misery, but thats what being an investor is all about and if I dont participate, someone else will.  Just as he did in Argentina last year, Thailands most hated speculator, George Soros, will be there for sure to take advantage and i'll be damned if I am going to let him reap all the benefits.

[Vorranuch]

I still don't see what could lead to a crisis in the short term. 15 years down the road why not but today? The country is not well managed? It is not perfect like everywhere but it is not so bad. The government is spending too much? The debt and budget deficits may seem high to you but they are quite manageable if you compare with other countries. The budget deficit is roughly the same as Germany's. And Thailand does not have the heavy burden of social security and pensions like the European countries so the spending can be reduced very easily if needed. It is no IMF standards for sure but look what their austerity policy has done to Argentina.  

Your main concern seems to be Toxin and his cronies. This is not economics but politics. Yes it is still the same corrupt peoples and they have not all graduated from Harvard. But before the crisis the country has enjoyed decades of high growth under the rule of these people. They take their cut but they keep things running well enough in my opinion. With better management the country could do much better but it could also be much worse (look at Indonesia, Philippines…etc). All the wrongdoings will limit the growth and not allow the country to realize its full potential. Leading to a hard crisis is a different story. I can give you dozens of example of countries with absurd economic policies who have not gone into a crisis over a 10 years+ period. Reduced growth yes, crisis no.  

As for the country's danger of being controlled by one single man you have 2 counter-examples at your door step: Malaysia and Singapore. It is not good for democracy but it can be good for the economy if the man is capable. Looking at what Toxin has achieved with his personal business, I tend to think he is not a bad manager.

Thailand is a developing country, you cannot expect the same as in the top economies. This goes also for the people, it takes time to build a credible elite.

Thailand is far from perfection but for me, overall, the country is going in the right direction.

[mrentoul]

country is not well managed? It is not perfect like everywhere but it is not so bad

The IMF must have taught them a few things after all.

[parryhandy]

i beleive that over 80 percent of the population of thailand arent even invovled in the economy.the real economy has no bearing on their lives whatsover.the thing which saddens me , because i have a thai daughter is the basic lack of opportunity for the majority of thais.the real economy is owned by a few people in which competiton is virtually outlawed. theres is no wealth creation or disribution of wealth.how wealthy do certain familys have to get before they start giving back something to the people they supposedly represent.

[Butterfly]

Well I am glad to see so much enthusiasm and cheerleading among the masses. You surely don't want to scare them before the slaughter. Keep dreaming people. Everything is well in the best of the world. If not convinced, repeat until you believe it.

In 2 or 3 years, you will even forget that there was a risk and be buying things like there is no tommorrow.