Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

[soi4girl]

You want to help .Send em to school!

Im sure all the new houses up country has really helped the people. Kids still cant reed and rite! To many self serving guys build houses and say they trying to help! They trying but could use a bit of skooling themselves.

Take a page of tv' members thai chinese hi so girlfriends. They seem to know that higher education , masters and ph'ds is where its at.

Edited December 16, 2008 by soi4girl

[Mosha]

Going by your spelling, you should fit right in.

[lannarebirth]

If a bg has three guys on the go to the tune of 15k/ mo each, but they each only visit twice per year for 2 weeks; how much if any of the money added to the economy is defined as "tourism"

[LaoPo]

If a bg has three guys on the go to the tune of 15k/ mo each, but they each only visit twice per year for 2 weeks; how much if any of the money added to the economy is defined as "tourism"

Zero, LB....

In your example it's called Development Aid

LaoPo

[Scott]

It's probably not too hard to track the amounts of money that are exchanged for Thai Baht. I doubt that very many businesses go to the local exchange, as their remittances are by bank transfer.

Put that information together with the number of tourists, and some statistical calculations and I would guess they could come up with a pretty accurate amount.

[sassienie]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

And what gives you more right to be here over the persons from "little Sweden or Manchester"

If you are Thai, I apologise, but if you are a farang without PR or citizenship, the farangs you find so distasteful have just a much right to be be here as you have. As another poster had stated go and buy yourself your own "desert Island" and you can decide who and who doesnt come to your idealised paradise..

Unfortunately, you are absolutely right.

[siam4ever]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

And what gives you more right to be here over the persons from "little Sweden or Manchester"

If you are Thai, I apologise, but if you are a farang without PR or citizenship, the farangs you find so distasteful have just a much right to be be here as you have. As another poster had stated go and buy yourself your own "desert Island" and you can decide who and who doesnt come to your idealised paradise..

Unfortunately, you are absolutely right.

Now don't get your panties in a twist over something no one has said. What we said is not that Scandies or anyone doesn't have a right to be here. We are just happy when the ratio of farang to Thais living here in Thailand is heavily in favor of the Thais.

[dumball]

You want to help .Send em to school!

Im sure all the new houses up country has really helped the people. Kids still cant reed and rite! To many self serving guys build houses and say they trying to help! They trying but could use a bit of skooling themselves.

Take a page of tv' members thai chinese hi so girlfriends. They seem to know that higher education , masters and ph'ds is where its at.

Shame you never managed to get past grade 2 suzy or you would be able to understand the written word , i gave the family THE MEANS to succeed , they supply their own effort to achieve this , what was built was a small house with a modern bathroom not an epitaph for my own fame .

They previously lived in the smallest house on the smallest lot in the village , no running water or even the semblance of a toilet , but were and still are ,a very happy family , as to schooling , 3 are fully literate , #4 (The eldest) needed to work to enable this to be possible(father left) , she is now efficient in English due to my efforts .Currently there are 2 young boys living and being cared for , taken in because mamma did not care for them , both of these children are supplied with all that it takes for them to attend school , a sister is being put through English language school to better her future chances for a decent life , she has achieved straight 'A 's and is currently placed #2 in the class of 35 students .

Now hang your head in shame , you obviously did not manage to attain their level of competance . Take your own advise and get an education .

[LaoPo]

It's probably not too hard to track the amounts of money that are exchanged for Thai Baht. I doubt that very many businesses go to the local exchange, as their remittances are by bank transfer.

Put that information together with the number of tourists, and some statistical calculations and I would guess they could come up with a pretty accurate amount.

..I'm lost where you're talking about ?

LaoPo

[soi4girl]

I think mr dumb has such a bad attitude toward thais coz he was taken big time by some of them! They are not all lazy good for nuttins. Thai people are light years ahead of cambo in anything and everything.

Cambodia wish it were thailand.

[Jim's_a_Thai_Fox]

I must admit, when I read about 'tourism down in Thailand' my thoughts are along the same lines as Siam4ever, i.e. I wasn't too displeased as it would mean less farang and for me, that is a preferable state of affairs.

Selfish? Yes of course, i do not deny it, but that is my opinion/feeling. None of the Thais or foreigners I know in LOS depend on the tourist business, so to be frank, I do not particularly care. Are Thais concerned that there are less tourists in Dubai and as such my hospitality business is severely affected due to the fact that hotels are no longer recruiting? I think not.

As has been said previously, Thais (in general) are in a much better position as western workers who are laid as they simply have further to fall... I can't see myself heading back to Leicestershire and working on a dairy farm, whereas my missus could easily return to Lampang and plant rice.

[Jim's_a_Thai_Fox]

well said jim.

(Sorry, double post, had to make another comment

Edited December 16, 2008 by Jim's_a_Thai_Fox

[soi4girl]

Good god! Youd allow the missues to go back planting rice! I thought they marry farang to leave rice paddies.

Edited December 16, 2008 by soi4girl

[dumball]

I think mr dumb has such a bad attitude toward thais coz he was taken big time by some of them! They are not all lazy good for nuttins. Thai people are light years ahead of cambo in anything and everything.

Cambodia wish it were thailand.

You are oh so wrong AGAIN , i was never 'Taken' big time or small time by Thais because i did not assocciate with people like you , i enjoyed all the years i spent in Thailand . Thai might be ahead in some things , but way behind in others , they can also speak far better English than you , even the young folk selling books could put you to shame , but i do not hold that against you , it is your attitude that is so bad .

[Ricardo]

Good god! Youd allow the missues to go back planting rice! I thought they marry farang to leave rice paddies.

Why would you wish to deny your wife/husband all the cultural rewards of a traditional Thai self-sufficient life ? Of course she/he might well choose to explore some of the alternative life-styles, cultures or climates !

[LaoPo]

I kindly suggest we return to the original topic, called:

Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

and leave discussions about sending the wife to the rice paddy out of this...

LaoPo

[dumball]

I kindly suggest we return to the original topic, called:

Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

and leave discussions about sending the wife to the rice paddy out of this...

LaoPo

Is not the 'Sending of the wife back to the rice paddies ' an integral point on THE WORST IS YET TO COME ???? This could become an integral point of this thread to a greater extent than it already has , when some posters come out of the denial stage .

[tigerboy]

How do the authorities put a figure on how much tourists spend anyway?

I don't see many receipts being offered.

Do they only count the revenue that is declared by way of receipts?

If they do...then torism affects a lt more people and is worth a lot more money than anyone realises.

I wonder how much tourism revenue goes completely undeclared?

How many jobs will this undeclared revenue affect?

No one knows exactly how much earned through tourism. Determining that would be essentially impossible. What most agencies and governments do, and I am sure Thailand is no different, is take academic, government, and NGO studies to determine the average expenditures made by tourists, then simply factor in the number of tourists coming into the country.

Of course, these numbers can be skewed for political or other reasons. And anti-prostitution NGO, for example, might overstate the amount of money being spent in a country on prostitution. This gives it a better raison d etre. A government, however, might understate the same spending in order to put a better light on its tourism industry.

There is also the problem of determining what type of tourist each incoming guest is. A backpacker may spend less than someone going to a 5-star resort. But when each goes through customs, there are not different types of entries for each one. Both are merely counted as visitors. But changes in the political situation, the situation back in the tourists home countries, air fare--all can affect one demographic much more than another, thereby skewing one demogrpahic to a more prominent or less prominent percentage of the incoming tourists.

Also, many studies tend to ignore national tourists. It is much harder to track citizens from inside one's own country. Hotel occupancy rates and reports can be good indications, but what about day-trippers who drive off to the floating market to see the fireflies or off to Jomtien to spend a day at the beach? How do you accurately track that kind of spending?

From the article below it seem that we can calculate the amount that each tourist brings into the Thai economy, at least from the viewpoint of the TCT.

For this year they have stated Bt 460 billion (revenue) divided by 12.8 million (number of tourist) which gives Bt 35938 spent per tourist.

For next year they estimate Bt 540 billion (revenue) divided by 14.1 million (number of tourist), which gives Bt 38298 spent per tourist.

No mention of the average length of stay, so that a baht per day figure could be determined, but let's use 7 days for one case and 14 days for another and assume that this amount is only used for lodging/accommodation.

For this year a 7 day stay tourist averages Bt 5134 per day and a 14 day stay tourist averages Bt 2567 per day.

For next year the 7 day stay tourist averages Bt 5471 and the 14 day stay tourist averages Bt 2736 per day.

This puts the 7 day stay tourist in the 4 to 5 star accommodation category and the 14 day stay tourist in the 3 to 4 star accommodation category. (My estimates considering accommodation in Bangkok. Other areas in Thailand would be different of course.)

It seems obvious to me that the TCT only considers revenue from tourist to really mean revenue from tourist accommodation. They cannot account for other money that tourist spend on things like shopping, travel, "entertainment", and etc. These amounts would have to show up in other areas of the Thai economy.

If the TAT is reporting similar numbers to the TCT, and these are the numbers that the Thai government uses to give us the 6% of GDP that I recall seeing someplace as the contribution of tourism to the Thai economy, then it should be obvious that the indirect spending of tourist accounts for perhaps at least twice what is actually reported as "tourism" in the Thai GDP.

Finally, I noted that the average amounts spent per tourist is higher for next year than for this year. Is this due to inflation in what looks to soon be a deflationary economy? Or are the Thais raising the prices across the board to make up for the estimated tourist downturn. It makes one wonder, doesn't it?

From: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/17...ss_30091240.php

TOURISM

3 million tourists disappear during December-March

By The Nation

Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) expected the missing of 3 million tourists during December and March, as a result of the domestic political conflicts.

This would reduce the expected revenue by Bt109 billion, TCT said.

"We expect the tourists to divert to neighbouring countries particularly Bali and Malaysia," said TCT president Kongkrit Hiranyakit.

TCT also revised down the tourist arrivals next year to 12.8 million from 15 million, with tourism revenue of Bt460 billion.

Kongkrit said the figures are lower than in 2008 when tourist arrivals are expected to reach 14.1 million and revenue to Bt540 billion.

[OlRedEyes]

I think mr dumb has such a bad attitude toward thais coz he was taken big time by some of them! They are not all lazy good for nuttins. Thai people are light years ahead of cambo in anything and everything.

Cambodia wish it were thailand.

The direction one is moving in is more important than your current position.

[LaoPo]

How do the authorities put a figure on how much tourists spend anyway?

I don't see many receipts being offered.

Do they only count the revenue that is declared by way of receipts?

If they do...then torism affects a lt more people and is worth a lot more money than anyone realises.

I wonder how much tourism revenue goes completely undeclared?

How many jobs will this undeclared revenue affect?

No one knows exactly how much earned through tourism. Determining that would be essentially impossible. What most agencies and governments do, and I am sure Thailand is no different, is take academic, government, and NGO studies to determine the average expenditures made by tourists, then simply factor in the number of tourists coming into the country.

Of course, these numbers can be skewed for political or other reasons. And anti-prostitution NGO, for example, might overstate the amount of money being spent in a country on prostitution. This gives it a better raison d etre. A government, however, might understate the same spending in order to put a better light on its tourism industry.

There is also the problem of determining what type of tourist each incoming guest is. A backpacker may spend less than someone going to a 5-star resort. But when each goes through customs, there are not different types of entries for each one. Both are merely counted as visitors. But changes in the political situation, the situation back in the tourists home countries, air fare--all can affect one demographic much more than another, thereby skewing one demogrpahic to a more prominent or less prominent percentage of the incoming tourists.

Also, many studies tend to ignore national tourists. It is much harder to track citizens from inside one's own country. Hotel occupancy rates and reports can be good indications, but what about day-trippers who drive off to the floating market to see the fireflies or off to Jomtien to spend a day at the beach? How do you accurately track that kind of spending?

From the article below it seem that we can calculate the amount that each tourist brings into the Thai economy, at least from the viewpoint of the TCT.

For this year they have stated Bt 460 billion (revenue) divided by 12.8 million (number of tourist) which gives Bt 35938 spent per tourist.

For next year they estimate Bt 540 billion (revenue) divided by 14.1 million (number of tourist), which gives Bt 38298 spent per tourist.

No mention of the average length of stay, so that a baht per day figure could be determined, but let's use 7 days for one case and 14 days for another and assume that this amount is only used for lodging/accommodation.

For this year a 7 day stay tourist averages Bt 5134 per day and a 14 day stay tourist averages Bt 2567 per day.

For next year the 7 day stay tourist averages Bt 5471 and the 14 day stay tourist averages Bt 2736 per day.

This puts the 7 day stay tourist in the 4 to 5 star accommodation category and the 14 day stay tourist in the 3 to 4 star accommodation category. (My estimates considering accommodation in Bangkok. Other areas in Thailand would be different of course.)

Save yourselves a lot of time by guessing and estimating by studying this link:

http://www.tourism.go.th/index.php?option=...0&Itemid=25

It has MOST of the answers but isn't up to date yet for 2008 of course.

LaoPo

[johnsurin]

I'm not saying tourism isn't due a fall, but I just booked up last week, and trying to get a flight was an absolute nightmare. They were either full going out or full coming back on the dates I wanted. Yes, you could get certain dates if you wanted to pay about £3000 a ticket, but I did not. So perhaps they might just be a sudden influx of tourists.

John.....

Edited December 23, 2008 by johnsurin

[LaoPo]

I'm not saying tourism isn't due a fall, but I just booked up last week, and trying to get a flight was an absolute nightmare. They were either full going out or full coming back on the dates I wanted. Yes, you could get certain dates if you wanted to pay about £3000 a ticket, but I did not. So perhaps they might just be a sudden influx of tourists.

John.....

Actually it is not a surprise for several reasons:

1. many airlines have cut the number of flights to certain destinations due to the decline in tourism but also a sharp decline in business travelers; result.....remaining flights are completely booked.

Many companies around the world have restricted traveling by staff and only in absolute necessary conditions, staff and even the board are allowed to fly. Everybody is cutting in overhead and costs.

2. Christmas and New Year around the corner makes it very difficult to book a flight, where ever one wants to go due to the cut in available flights. The more popular a destination the more difficult.

LaoPo

[Naam]

I kindly suggest we return to the original topic, called:

Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

and leave discussions about sending the wife to the rice paddy out of this...

LaoPo

Is not the 'Sending of the wife back to the rice paddies ' an integral point on THE WORST IS YET TO COME ???? This could become an integral point of this thread to a greater extent than it already has , when some posters come out of the denial stage .

i don't understand the majority of arguments in this thread. "the worst is yet to come" being thai economy in general or tourism specifically will only affect a tiny minority of Farangs who do business or work in Thailand for a living. for them "wife back to rice paddies" might apply although it is reasonable to assume that not everybody has a Thai wife.

for the others (e.g. retirees) i don't see any negative consequences. au contraire! an economic slowdown should keep inflation in check, perhaps weakening the Baht and that would be beneficial for the average Farang.