Thai Economic Crash

[DJGREEN1980]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

[misterman21]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Yes! Thailand is online for the second wave of destruction. Due to restrictions on lending following the 97 crash they have been spared the first wave. As you correctly deduce - exports will be virtualy wiped out (world shipping rates have been reduced to zero from 200 to 300k per day - nothing is moving); this years tourism is f**ked (free visas and cut price - upto 50% - flights are despertae but futile measures), the construction industry employing many Issan workers is grinding to a halt

[mommysboy]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

[Naam]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailands economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

[Khun Jean]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

Edited January 23, 2009 by Khun Jean

[wasabi]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

[Orac]

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

I usually get through all of these on a good night thanks to this forum, rolling 24 hour news and alcohol however my wife remains oblivious (thanks to Thai Soaps) - I sometimes wonder which of us is better off!

[thaimate]

i have just come back from the new central mall in patters,packed to the rafters ,but that is now ,i wonder what it will be like in 2/3 months.

i do not think the baht will crash(but what do i know) but i honestly cannot see it staying so high ,exports are crashing ,buisnesses on the eastern seaboard closing fast.

anyway nothing i can do about it ,just sit a wait out the storm.

[thaimate]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

[Pdaz]

Nam

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

Guess it depends on where their income is derived.

Okay if a 'retiree' has a fixed pension the only things that will affect him is the exchange rate and inflation. If his pension is big enough I guess he can ride out the storm.. Unless the exchange rate bites..

But if the retiree/expat is living off or suplementing his pension with income from interest or stock market funds I guess they may be feeling the pinch.. I'm still working and my industry hasn't shown any signs of a downturn.. However my stirling based saving are now worth 30% less against the Baht and whereas previously I was earning 7% on my savings I'm now getting 1.8% .. No real affect on my standard of living cos I'm still at work.. But had I been already retired it would have been a big blow to my income.

My house is already paid for so apart from utilities/insurance and groceries my only expenses are entertainment. So if I was on a fixed income I guess I would either have to reduce my expenditure or dig into my savings..

I would say there are alot of (plastic) expats here.. Guys who sold a house in the UK or came into a some money from deceased parents who moved to Thailand a few years back.. Invested their cash in a high interest account and some stocks/bonds etc.. who are now getting very nervous. Their stock value has plunged and their interest rate has falled and to make matters worse the exchange rate has become terrible.. These people really couldn't afford to be an expat anyway and most were just 'living the dream' until the inevitable happened. 100's of guys like this squitter their cash away and have to return home after a couple of years here.. The latest economic problem is only gonna speed up the inevitable..

Check out the local notice boards and see all the houses, scooters and trucks for sale...

As for the Thai's.. Well exports are a big part of this country's economy as is tourism... Nobody buying what they produce and nobody arriving to spend money.. If that doesn't impact the Thai conomy I don't know what will... Many Thai have all the 'toys' ... Trucks, bikes, mobiles etc.. But they are the same as the poorly paid in Europe/USA.. Everything they have is bought on credit... Sooner or later they won't have the cash to service their repayments and this will add to the problem...

[neverdie]

In which state are most of you?

* denial "No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can't be; I would have heard about it."

* anger "Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining "If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won't have to really change. I'll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year."

* fear "I'm going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I'm not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max."

* depression "Crap, we're screwed. What's the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There's nothing that any of us can do, anyway."

* acceptance "However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let's figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we've got, not what we wish we had."

Which minute of the day would you like me to answer for?? :jerk: Its all happening folks!

[Naam]

Nam

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

But if the retiree/expat is living off or suplementing his pension with income from interest or stock market funds I guess they may be feeling the pinch.. I'm still working and my industry hasn't shown any signs of a downturn.. However my stirling based saving are now worth 30% less against the Baht and whereas previously I was earning 7% on my savings I'm now getting 1.8% .. No real affect on my standard of living cos I'm still at work.. But had I been already retired it would have been a big blow to my income.

that's not an answer to the question i asked! please read again. is my wife perhaps right when she claims my english is poor?

[lannarebirth]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

I thought I saw some locusts today. Thais were happily eating them however.

[taxexile]

the thais are better equipped to survive a recession than westerners pampered by benefit systems , an inflated sense of entitlement , wallowing in self pity and the negative habit of looking for someone else to blame rather than picking themselves up and trying to start again.

thais have the one thing that is missing in the west , support systems based on family.

thais are able to start up small business ventures (market stalls , food stalls , buying and selling etc. ) without the need for compliance with the onerous regulatory requirements and employment regulations that make any small business venture in the west such a headache. i remember after the thai crash in the late nineties , wealthy business people just started having garage sales , started market stalls and just carried on , albeit at a much lower level of affluence than before.

thais have a happy go lucky entrepreneurial spirit and the ability to face hardships with a smile.

the thais may be serial stumblers , but the never seem to fall.

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

my view is not at all rosy Thaimate. in fact i am concerned although the crisis does not affect my lifestyle presently. but a fullblown crisis in the future (such as a freeze of all financial transactions, lawlessness, etc.) would not only force me but nearly everybody to radically change and adapt. what i dislike and comment with irony or sarcasm are prophecies without explanations and tangible facts.

one finds these kinds of prophecies a dime a dozen, even from posters who clearly lack basic knowledge of economics. worse, some of them pick up news, misinterprete or distort them by mistake and then present their rubbish as if it was the gospel. for me personally it is entertaining but somehow i have always those TV-members in mind who read this forum expecting advice but instead they are presented bullshit²

edited for typo

Edited January 23, 2009 by Naam

[Khun Jean]

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

I usually get through all of these on a good night thanks to this forum, rolling 24 hour news and alcohol however my wife remains oblivious (thanks to Thai Soaps) - I sometimes wonder which of us is better off!

Indeed i forgot to make this Thai related. I'll add one. It is the first one.

* Ignorance "All the same. Nothing exists out of the one millimeter of space around me."

[dhind1]

I have been here for over 10 years and I saw the downturn in 97 and 98. I agree that many things are for sale at present indicating a cash crunch already for some folks. This will likely worsen as we move along here as I do not see the measures taken so far by stimulating the Thai economy very much. Luckily I am still working, but I am worried about my family hare and my job.

[cclub75]

Yes, Thailand has an economy based on exports....but the value of those exports only slowly tickles down to the average Thai workers after the cream has been skimmed off by the wealthy and the foriegn factory owners. Does the average Thai benefit from those export industries? Yes he/she does, but the best part of the profits are removed first by the expatriate owners or are sent abroad by the factory managers/investors. The factory workers are at the very bottm, only feeding on the leftovers.

I totally agree. Exports are always a magical word, used by craving politicians. "Exports" in a "globalized world" make you feel good and proud.

But, we need to go beyond the curtain.

-a lot of exports businesses enjoy special privilege (BOI) : tax cuts (on profits, but also on imported parts/raw materials for instance) etc.

-for that matter, it would be interesting to know exactly how much the whole BOI car industry is paying taxes... I guess : it's a state secret...

-exports businesses are perfect to avoid taxation (you just take the value added out from the country, by using Hong Kong companies and other offshore structures). The Japanese are very good at it : they import parts from Japan (from themselves), and then export cars (tax free) from Thailand : they win on both sides.

So yes, exports provide a real employment pool (we can't deny it)... but what else ?

[ray23]

Just want to follow the thread and see if someone comes up a reaonable plan, to survive what the world has become relatively un harmed?

So far other then worrying me to some extent I have not been effected. Oops I will take that back I don't save a much each month as I once did. But, truthfully my life style although not eloborate in the first place has not been effected.

[Heng]

No real affect to my own personal lifestyle but I do see a lot of folks downsizing and cutting back.

[fred2007]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailands economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

First of all you should read the post, no one ever mentioned ex-pats at all, we talking about the thai econnomy not the connomy of ex-pats living in Thailand. And to tell you I am not living on an income from overseas I live on an income from what I earn here. And no!!! I do not jump from a balcony in Pattaya, but my wife and family will jump from our balcony if the situation is getting worst. I guess it is is no point in talking about the Thai econnomy with you since you always stick up with anything what happen over here maybe you should go back and stick up with what happen in your own country !!!

[misterman21]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

[paully]

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees?

What do you suppose is now (and has been for the past few months) happening to that income generated offshore for expat retirees in Thailand? Have you looked at savings rates in Britain or the US recently? Is there a Stock Market boom to cash in on?

[taxexile]

Heng

No real affect to my own personal lifestyle

i'm sure thousands of thai visa readers will be relieved to hear that

..... so no need for the " thai visa whip round for heng " just yet.

[Heng]

Heng

No real affect to my own personal lifestyle

i'm sure thousands of thai visa readers will be relieved to hear that

..... so no need for the " thai visa whip round for heng " just yet.

Mentioned because I am decidedly middle of the pack middle class in edition to being the beacon of hope and light for all inter-Thais on TV.

Edited January 23, 2009 by Heng

[taxexile]

thanks for the clarification , your undoubted concern for the cruel suffering of all us nail biting expats as our currencies tumble out of control is a great comfort to us.

and a happy and prosperous chinese new year to you and everyone else out there.

p.s. please send your red envelopes to

taxexile , c/o the workhouse , st. tropez , france.

[junkofdavid2]

I dunno if Thailand is gona crash or not...

...but I do know for sure that farangs who have lived their own horrible lives til now HOPE that a crash will come (for what, I dunno either); and love to post apocalyptic prophesies on Thaivisa.

[Pdaz]

Nam

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

But if the retiree/expat is living off or suplementing his pension with income from interest or stock market funds I guess they may be feeling the pinch.. I'm still working and my industry hasn't shown any signs of a downturn.. However my stirling based saving are now worth 30% less against the Baht and whereas previously I was earning 7% on my savings I'm now getting 1.8% .. No real affect on my standard of living cos I'm still at work.. But had I been already retired it would have been a big blow to my income.

that's not an answer to the question i asked! please read again. is my wife perhaps right when she claims my english is poor?

I read it again.. Your wife is correct Sir.... Income generated offshore = Pensions, Savings,stocks, bonds etc... Said income would be in a foreign currency and therefore subject to exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate cuts and the movement of the global markets...

The people who I would suspect would be least affected by global economic crisis would be expats who have and income source in Thai Baht ie. a rental property or small business..

Once again in case your missus is a particularly good judge of character..

'Offshore' means outside of Thailand.. How many 'expats' do you know who's pension is paid in Thai Baht or comes from Thailand ?...

Might be a good time to sign up for remedial English....

Edited January 23, 2009 by Pdaz

[Bizz]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

my view is not at all rosy Thaimate. in fact i am concerned although the crisis does not affect my lifestyle presently. but a fullblown crisis in the future (such as a freeze of all financial transactions, lawlessness, etc.) would not only force me but nearly everybody to radically change and adapt. what i dislike and comment with irony or sarcasm are prophecies without explanations and tangible facts.

one finds these kinds of prophecies a dime a dozen, even from posters who clearly lack basic knowledge of economics. worse, some of them pick up news, misinterprete or distort them by mistake and then present their rubbish as if it was the gospel. for me personally it is entertaining but somehow i have always those TV-members in mind who read this forum expecting advice but instead they are presented bullshit²

edited for typo

It is clear many Expats are suffering both from the currency exchange rates for £ which we have not seen since the early 80tys.1.366 now as I write this. Britain is clearly drifting into a contracted recession that may last many years.

My own country Ireland is skirting being another Iceland.

Too much cronyism here in Ireland at all costs the big boys are protected.

I think at this stage of the crisis that we need a reality check. Doing nothing postpones the inevitable unwinding of the bad loan books which appears the most logical approach. The current situation breeds a lack of trust and lack of clarity.

Investors want clarity and a reasonable ability to assess risk, or they just won’t buy into any private equity buy-in to the remaining banks.

The system needs an unavoidable enema, sooner rather than later. The indignity remains the same.

There are also those who have seen their pension plans contract by double digits. I have not been immune.

Many expats have to cut back we are not all millionaires as most Thais in ISSAN may think.

We have to be over cautious now it will not get better soon it will be 2011 at the very least.

For Thailand to drift into a 1997 scenario I think not Asia is well placed now to ride out this storm.

For those who are saying that property will collapse in Thailand think again where would you get a property in any western country for the prices you pay in Thailand? Dream on.

Batten down the hatches