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Midas come on, are they saying that the official numbers are not real?

Why would the US goberment do something like that?

12, as you see life is not that bad in Japan, they could be sleeping in tents.... :D

Yes Alex I must stop being so cynical ……… :)

Don't Like the Numbers? Change 'Em

If a CEO issued the kind of distorted figures put out by politicians and scientists, he'd wind up in prison.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...1655183416.html

I disagree, CEO's and CFO's put out bullshit "headline" numbers all the time. That's what gets picked up by the press and what the public buys into. They'll stuff channels, move up recognition of revenues, change pension return assumptions, whatever. The CFO of IBM is one of the most finacially savvy guys in the world. He could probably show a profit for a quarter where no transaction took place. If confidence becomes raised in a quarter or two projections can become self fulfilling, estimates get raised and the game is afoot. One needs to dig through a lot of SEC filings to see what is "true" regarding a company's financial condition.

God knows what goes on "off balance sheet".

Edited by lannarebirth
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How could Obama, a controversial figure with a revolutionary Marxist background, communist connections, and socialist worldview, emerge as the favorite of Wall Street interests? The short answer is that he is the perfect front man.

In Obama’s case, it is the China connection that is most relevant. Goldman Sachs :D :D his major Wall Street backer, has had an exclusive financial relationship with the Communist government of China which has benefited both China and Goldman Sachs―but not the United States

but most people don't know the well kept secret that Michelle Obama is a half-sister of Lloyd Blankfein who was expelled by a tanzanian jewish Masai tribe for refusing circumcision and not killing a lion with the traditional short sword. so he ended up with GS.

:)

That doesn’t sound right ? :D rumors on the Internet continue to allege Michelle like her husband

are Muslim while Lloyd Blankfein is ” doing God’s work” ….so how is this explained ?

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Money%20Markets%201.jpg

Mostly waffle....

I find what is going on with Money Market funds fascinating in terms of the hyperinflation/inflation/deflation debate.

Although there doesnt seem to much sign of either at the moment, there are fairly good reasons to worry about 'both'. Afterall massive government deficits combined with money printing is a wicked recipe for hyperinflation if continued. On the other hand, massive government deficits combined with printing to prop up economies and asset prices are likely to see deflationary forces reassert themselves if it stops.

There is also the possibility that a tight rope will have been walked where everything is hunky dory but we dont need to worry about that.

Most pointers are mildly inflationary (1) stockmarkets (2) commodities (3) other asset prices (4) growth.

However there is one very important indicator that is sharply deflationary and this is the underlying money supply. (This is very important for inflationists as they 'generally' see inflation as a monetary phenomenom rather than demand pull.)

Money supply is supposed to reflect nominal GDP = Prices x Real GDP. (Usually money growth runs ahead of nominal GDP (usually) because there is asset inflation not reflected in CPI.) One thing for sure they dont run in opposite directions for long.

So if you look at the money supply figures they are all heading south......

post-23517-1263629545_thumb.png

The idea of monetary aggregates is that you can use a narrow base of money that swishes around the economy very fast - cash/reserves - M0, M1 - or wider aggregates - say M2 which includes a wider definition and money that doesnt move so fast (i.e deposits). M0, M1 are currently fairly useless (despite being popular with a couple of politicians) because they include reserves (or Bernanke money) that is sitting idily by. M1 is just US$1.7trn while M2 is US$8.4trn or over 50% of GDP (M3 is no longer officially published.)

So here is the point....

There cant be inflation (to any degree) while the widest and most relevant definition of MS - M2 - is heading south - any inflation we can see now, could well disappear in that the deflation of M2 is likely to be reflected in falling asset prices. M2 growth is at its lowest level since 1995.

However, Money Market Funds are a very important part of M2. M2 is roughly US$8.4trn, so money market funds make up 30-40%. Money Market Funds are included in M2 because they are supposed to represent cash. Money Market Funds assets maturity must not exceed 90 days, must not have a maximum maturity of over 13 months, must be pretty well all AAA grade. (Which does admittedly beg the question why you need to lock up them up for an orderly wind down - afterall they wind down into cash in 3 months (but I have a feeling we all know the 'orderly wind down is not for the benefit of investors' but controlling the yield curve.))

So if you look at the first graph and compare it to the second you can see that movement in money market fund assets basically equates fairly well with the distortion of M2 relative to GDP. Between September 2008 M2 rose while the economy was being most deflationary and then has fallen (actual M2 has been flat since.) In fact basically the entire movement of M2 can be explained by the movement of money fund assets.

(This is why it is used by investors - M2 rising into falling market precedes a rise in markets, while this fall would tend to indicate the opposite.)

Now the movement in money market funds can be at least partially explained by 'liquidity preference'. During the downturn in the markets from September to March '09, people sold risk assets (not included in M2) say equities and some bonds and invested in low risk highly liquid assets. The subsequent lack of rise in M2 can be partially explained by the reversal of this trend. It has also been massively exaggerated by the manipulation of the short end that has made money market funds very unattractive with current yields around 0.1%.

The interesting question is how do people actually treat money funds. Have withdrawals from money market funds gone into savings accounts which would seem pretty similar monetary assets (and are included in M2) or has it gone into USTs (domestic holdings of which have risen US$500bn over the past year - and which are not included in M2). If that was the case then M2 is simply being understated and improvements in real growth and a rise in inflation not being reflected in the monetary aggregates.

Where this puts us in the inflation/deflation debate I am not quite sure - inflationists can look all they like to find inflation without monetary expansion and it wont be there. Deflation is an increasingly harder sell imho. A popular notion at the moment is that that Government intervention is bound to get it wrong - bound to be destructive. It would be amusing if getting everything totally wrong all at once ended up with the right result.

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Where this puts us in the inflation/deflation debate I am not quite sure - inflationists can look all they like to find inflation without monetary expansion and it wont be there. Deflation is an increasingly harder sell imho. A popular notion at the moment is that that Government intervention is bound to get it wrong - bound to be destructive. It would be amusing if getting everything totally wrong all at once ended up with the right result.

" everything totally wrong all at once ended up with the right result. "

But why couldn't there be stagflation ?

A sinking economy and some infl ation. With high unemployment then consumers have less to spend.

Add some inflation, and the money they do have is worth less and less every day.

And the result of economic stagnation is even more unemployment.

If you're on a fixed income and inflation is eroding the value of your monthly cheque, there will come

a time when people start to get very frustrated. If you've managed to save some money, inflation eats away at its value, too.

Which is why Gerald Celente keeps predicting the natives will get very restless before the end of 2010.

Edited by midas
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But why couldn't there be stagflation ?

A sinking economy and some infl ation. With high unemployment then consumers have less to spend.

Add some inflation, and the money they do have is worth less and less every day.

And the result of economic stagnation is even more unemployment.

If you're on a fixed income and inflation is eroding the value of your monthly cheque, there will come

a time when people start to get very frustrated. If you've managed to save some money, inflation eats away at its value, too.

Actually when I mention hyperinflation I really mean 'stagflation'. There are only a few people who really believe in wheelbarrows of dollars but I think quite a few who can see a return to the 1970s. Really the major difference between a deflationist and an inflationist is that one believes in slow/no/negative growth and price deflation and one believes in slow/no/negative growth with inflation.

The point about monetary growth is still valid. M3 grew an average off 11.61% p.a. in the 1970s. Without monetary growth there will be no significant inflation. (It is slightly complicated by the fact that > savings = >investment = >growth doesnt hold in a truly deflationary price environment because you have no wish to actually spend an asset whose really value is going up - V (velocity) falls or (Marshall K (1/V) rises).)

The point about the stagflation view is that it is much preferred by economists as eroding cash keeps you spending, bails out borrowers and the banks and is impoverishment by sleight of hand (generally considered criminal subterfuge by the likes of Sokal.) You see median incomes in real terms are actually lower in real terms than 35 years ago but everyone has seen their nominal pay checks increase. Deflationary prices, tend to aggravate deflationary income, by encouraging hording of cash (read saving money and increasing your real wealth), bank crises, rather than spending and is not really popular with policy makers who value their lives.

You might think that inflation is actually a way of impoverishing the rich. In fact it is a subtle way of impoverishing the workers and the middle classes. There is a great quote from Malthus on this who despite getting on for 350 years still comes up with some classics. Didnt find the one I wanted but in regards to Celente I reckon this one from Malthus is pretty good... :) ...

A writer may tell me that he thinks man will ultimately become an ostrich. I cannot properly contradict him.

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You might think that inflation is actually a way of impoverishing the rich. In fact it is a subtle way of impoverishing the workers and the middle classes. There is a great quote from Malthus on this who despite getting on for 350 years still comes up with some classics. Didnt find the one I wanted but in regards to Celente I reckon this one from Malthus is pretty good... :D ...

A writer may tell me that he thinks man will ultimately become an ostrich. I cannot properly contradict him.

That about impoverishing the workers and middle classes I agree with !

Celente specifically predicts food riots and now we have a similar claim by Jim Rogers.

I heard about crop failures because of climate etc, but I have to say I had never even

thought of this one………….no money to buy fertilzer. :)

Surely a hungry ostrich is a restless ostrich?

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-...hortages-2010-1

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Actually when I mention hyperinflation I really mean 'stagflation'. There are only a few people who really believe in wheelbarrows of dollars but I think quite a few who can see a return to the 1970s. Really the major difference between a deflationist and an inflationist is that one believes in slow/no/negative growth and price deflation and one believes in slow/no/negative growth with inflation.

I agree with all your last post. All the QE and ZIRP bullshit has been aimed and resulted in reducing the rate of asset price deflation and reducing the immediate impact of the bubbles. We are having the nasty side effects of allowing the bankers to claim more bonuses and the savers to be screwed. But we have been through this discussion before.

It strikes me that the game Monopoly provides maybe a simplistic but possibly valid model. During the game the players start from a level field, then all players start increasing their assets, the latter stages show those with a bit more luck increasing their share until finally everybody is screwed except the last player, who has taken the lot. This game is now being played out in the developed western countries.

Monopoly is just a game. But it is real life for all those players in the world.

How about changing the rules of Monopoly to tax the hotel owners on Mayfair to help the poorer guys? Sorry, just won't work. The rich guys just say "fuc_k you", I'm in it for myself. "I want it all, I want it all for myself". Monopoly is maybe more true to life than you want to believe.

This is the basic human condition, it is in our genes. The human being, in fact all living things, is not nice. It is the kill or be killed instinct, I am more important than you, my genes and not your genes will survive.

And my conclusion is that we are all ultimately doomed, certainly we will all be dead in the next fifty years (except a few young 'uns around here) and so will Obamah, Brown, Darling, Bernanke, the Goldman Sachs lot; all we want is the maximise our personal gains and screw the rest in the time alloted. And, to be cynical, to have a bit or a lot of personal pleasure in seeing others suffer.

And that is the reason for the financial crisis, poverty, starvation, islamic terrorists, world wars, local wars, revolutions, and human misery. The personal greed of nasty human beings.

Just think what the bankers' bonuses could do for the desolation in Haiti. But I doubt whether a single banker's Dollar will be willingly spent to relieve the disaster. Unless, of course, there is some personal gain to be had by a public announcement that 100,000 has been donated in some "I feel good" and "maybe I will not be so hated" action.

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A popular notion at the moment is that that Government intervention is bound to get it wrong - bound to be destructive. It would be amusing if getting everything totally wrong all at once ended up with the right result.

It would be amusing indeed.......It would be the same as the govt. intervention being a crutch for a person with a broken leg.

But they did not give the crutch to the person with the broken leg. Instead they gave it to the one who broke the persons leg.

So yes that would be amusing/miraculous that the leg heals.....Did I mention they who got the crutch even pawned the crutch & took out side bets that the leg wouldn't heal? :):D

Edited by flying
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It is getting close to the 60% devaluation as was mentioned before (regarding home prices)....... :)

I read an article somewhere that was saying that inflation will come as those that are on unemployment benefits receive money but don't produce anything. But these people have some kind of benefit card right? So it is all just digital money. I said it before and this is what I think will be the future.

You have an account and can purchase things which the number (the cost) of things will be deducted from your account as long as you produce something/contribute to GDP. No more paper money or coins. They might be called: "Unit's" Once you stop contributing your labor, the "account" will be closed.

Donations to charity will remain deductible for tax....

:D

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It is getting close to the 60% devaluation as was mentioned before (regarding home prices)....... :)

I read an article somewhere that was saying that inflation will come as those that are on unemployment benefits receive money but don't produce anything. But these people have some kind of benefit card right? So it is all just digital money. I said it before and this is what I think will be the future.

You have an account and can purchase things which the number (the cost) of things will be deducted from your account as long as you produce something/contribute to GDP. No more paper money or coins. They might be called: "Unit's" Once you stop contributing your labor, the "account" will be closed.

Donations to charity will remain deductible for tax....

:D

And that is probably why so many in USA are getting guns, ammunition , land and water to grow food and then they can tell the “ digital account keepers ” to get f-cked

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You have an account and can purchase things which the number (the cost) of things will be deducted from your account as long as you produce something/contribute to GDP. No more paper money or coins. They might be called: "Unit's" Once you stop contributing your labor, the "account" will be closed.

Oh absolutely.... in the future the workers will inherit the earth. According to what I have read your plan is exactly how things are going to work in the next life.

In this life the plan is to pay anyone who produces anything increasingly smaller amounts of 'units'. Your fellow 'revolutionary' 12D explained the real life rules which he points out amounts to a game of 'Monopoly'. The rules have to be changed but, my mother, changed the rules so it must be allowed. She increased the 'drunk in charge' fine from GBP20 to GBP200.

Monopoly isnt quite like real life in the future. Real life will be more like this - the 'wheelbarrow' is not allowed to play, the 'street repairs' tax is removed and there are at least 4 'go to Mayfair' cards - you buy Mayfair, go play golf, come back and foreclose on everybody's mortgage.

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Your fellow 'revolutionary' 12D explained

Yeah.........So now anyone pointing out inconsistencies or having disgust in the state of affairs & what caused them is a revolutionary eh? My guess is that is the thinking that will drive such behaviour to boil over.

Then again if a revolutionary is someone like RP....well then we are in good company..... As opposed to the .....well I would not be amazed if tomorrow everything would be all right cause they told me it would be crowd

“Could it all be a bad dream, or a nightmare? Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds? It's surreal; it's just not believable. A grand absurdity; a great deception, a delusion of momentous proportions; based on preposterous notions; and on ideas whose time should never have come; simplicity grossly distorted and complicated; insanity passed off as logic; grandiose schemes built on falsehoods with the morality of Ponzi and Madoff; evil described as virtue; ignorance pawned off as wisdom; destruction and impoverishment in the name of humanitarianism; violence, the tool of change; preventive wars used as the road to peace; tolerance delivered by government guns; reactionary views in the guise of progress; an empire replacing the Republic; slavery sold as liberty; excellence and virtue traded for mediocracy; socialism to save capitalism; a government out of control, unrestrained by the Constitution, the rule of law, or morality; bickering over petty politics as we collapse into chaos; the philosophy that destroys us is not even defined.

We have broken from reality--a psychotic Nation. Ignorance with a pretense of knowledge replacing wisdom. Money does not grow on trees, nor does prosperity come from a government printing press or escalating deficits.

We're now in the midst of unlimited spending of the people's money, exorbitant taxation, deficits of trillions of dollars--spent on a failed welfare/warfare state; an epidemic of cronyism; unlimited supplies of paper money equated with wealth.

A central bank that deliberately destroys the value of the currency in secrecy, without restraint, without nary a whimper. Yet, cheered on by the pseudo-capitalists of Wall Street, the military industrial complex, and Detroit.

We police our world empire with troops on 700 bases and in 130 countries around the world. A dangerous war now spreads throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. Thousands of innocent people being killed, as we become known as the torturers of the 21st century.

We assume that by keeping the already-known torture pictures from the public's eye, we will be remembered only as a generous and good people. If our enemies want to attack us only because we are free and rich, proof of torture would be irrelevant.

The sad part of all this is that we have forgotten what made America great, good, and prosperous. We need to quickly refresh our memories and once again reinvigorate our love, understanding, and confidence in liberty. The status quo cannot be maintained, considering the current conditions. Violence and lost liberty will result without some revolutionary thinking.

We must escape from the madness of crowds now gathering. The good news is the reversal is achievable through peaceful and intellectual means and, fortunately, the number of those who care are growing exponentially.

Of course, it could all be a bad dream, a nightmare, and that I'm seriously mistaken, overreacting, and that my worries are unfounded. I hope so. But just in case, we ought to prepare ourselves for revolutionary changes in the not-too-distant future.”

Edited by flying
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Well, "revolutionary" is maybe not quite how I would describe myself. I want a return to the days where "an honest day's work gained an honest day's pay". But maybe in the year 2010, where a "dishonest day's lying gains a multi-lifetime's pay", a return to those values could be considered revolutionary. In that case bring it on.

Moving to the Eurozone

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...XUiAU&pos=2

“If the EU decides to bail out Greece, either via the European Central Bank or direct by other euro members, it would deliver a bad signal to other euro-zone countries,” Jennifer Underwood, a strategist at Europe Arab Bank Plc in London, wrote in a note. “Should no bailout be forthcoming and there is a Greek sovereign default, not only would the euro come under some heavy pressure on the foreign-exchange markets, the weaker euro members would come under attack.”

I still don't quite understand how all this Euro economy will develop and how it will affect the value of the Euro. In the Eurozone the individual countries are unable to issue more currency, but I guess that the banks, in this case the Greeks, can electronically ramp up ratios and lend out fake EUR willy-nilly. Now would this debase the value of the EUR or only send the Greek banks to the wall? If the Greek banks go insolvent, then the knock-on effect is dependent on whether foreign banks or investors have gambled money on them, and whether this has been through a derivative multiplier effect, simple share ownership (does that exist anymore) or loans, deposits or whatever insidious financial instrument they use, and whether the governments will bail out the bastards once more.

The big EUR issue has always been that the PIGS (sorry guys) have been pigging out on the low EUR interest rates and developed their own little bubbles. Now I really can't see the problem with debtors in the Piglands being charged more interest than, for example borrowers in Germany. Everyone according to their own risk. But until now they have all been binging away on the low rates that have come out of Germany.

So what should happen? When some company or individual goes to a bank for a loan, the bank charges the appropriate rate. So the Greeks pay say 15% for their EUR and the Germans 5%. And this should work PROVIDED the fuc_king banks are not allowed to come begging to the governments for more bailouts it they wrongly price the risk.

I suppose that in the end all I want (and maybe a few others) is some stability. It seems to me that the solution is not too difficult to comprehend. Under no circumstance should the banks be able to hold governments and, by implication, tax payers, financially responsible for their investment failures. And to ensure that this not possible, the banks have to be split into investment and "traditional" banks. The Glass-Steagal act should never have been repealed and should be reinstated immediately.

"There is nothing new under the sun"

"Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it".

Edited by 12DrinkMore
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Moving to the Eurozone

“If the EU decides to bail out Greece, either via the European Central Bank or direct by other euro members, it would deliver a bad signal to other euro-zone countries,” Jennifer Underwood, a strategist at Europe Arab Bank Plc in London, wrote in a note. “Should no bailout be forthcoming and there is a Greek sovereign default, not only would the euro come under some heavy pressure on the foreign-exchange markets, the weaker euro members would come under attack.”

I still don't quite understand how all this Euro economy will develop and how it will affect the value of the Euro.

These totally unrealistic pension liabilities everywhere you look are making things worse. The retired Greek public servants just don’t get it.

Workers today must generate enough income to cover superannuation payments for themselves as well as to subsidise all these other retired workers

and this system doesnt work anymore in this era of cost cutting and deflating wages.

Before we see the next sovereign debt default somewhere in the world, maybe we will see the effects of a US state literally going bankrupt and

how this then plays out who knows.

This article says Illinois state is supposed to pay $5.4 billion into its pension fund next year and $10 billion the year after that

and yet its liquid assets have been less than a paltry $1 million at times.

Illinois Careens Toward Bankruptcy: Report

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local-beat/...t-81960437.html

Edited by midas
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China About to End Dollar-Peg

Remember that every dollar replaced with renminbi in trade is one more excess dollar permanently dumped upon this already-oversaturated market for dollars. Those nations/economies who delay abandoning the dollar will be punished by crippling inflation (and the political consequences of crippling inflation) – and through the value of those dollars they are holding rapidly moving toward zero due to non-existent demand.

It is entirely moot (at this point) to debate whether China “should” dump the dollar-peg. The facts are obvious: China must dump the peg, and both China and the rest of the world will benefit enormously from it doing so.

Full article at link above

Edited by flying
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"It is entirely moot (at this point) to debate whether China “should” dump the dollar-peg. The facts are obvious: China...."

...will dump or not dump the dollar-peg if and when those in charge think that dumping or not dumping will be for China's benefit. China will not consider the wet dreams of any "Bullion Bulls of Canada" or other wishful thinkers no matter whether the mattresses of the latter are protected by rubber sheets or not.

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If they floated it would crash. Actually it's going to crash anyway, along with their bogus economy.

if they floated then a number of currencies would crash. what would definitely not crash is the chinese one! interesting is that the "bogus" economy seems to have finally dethroned Germany which has been since years the world's export champion.

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If they floated it would crash.

Actually it's going to crash anyway, along with their bogus economy.

Heard that before about Japan when they were copying almost everything which was made in the West, back than...remember? And now?

And, not so many (not one in fact) countries are sitting on $ 2,4 TRILLION reserves.

Maybe it's wishful thinking from you but it better not crash or the whole world will crash.

LaoPo

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interesting is that the "bogus" economy seems to have finally dethroned Germany which has been since years the world's export champion.

If the published numbers really are what they "seem". I don't believe any of the official numbers from the US, much less China's.

Maybe it's wishful thinking from you but it better not crash or the whole world will crash.

LaoPo

No argument there; when Chimerica goes down it will take the broader global financial system down with it. IMO Thailand will emerge in relatively good shape with lots of arable land, water and an efficient labor force. Also gold is well integrated into the economy which IMO will help keep the currency strong.

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The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/13/sovereign...tha-bykere.html

LaoPo

what did Roubini say that is not known by every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe? :D

:) The difference is Naam, he gets paid to tell everybody, lots of it, and I've heard rumors that the Ladies are very fond of this chap, so he MUST be doing something good, ain't he?

LaoPo

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No argument there; when Chimerica goes down it will take the broader global financial system down with it. IMO Thailand will emerge in relatively good shape with lots of arable land, water and an efficient labor force. Also gold is well integrated into the economy which IMO will help keep the currency strong.

please enlighten me in what way gold is integrated in the thai economy, how its existence affects the thai currency and why it would be an advantage for Thailand to have a strong currency.

on second thoughts... please do not enlighten me as i am in an excellent mood today which should not be spoiled. instead we could discuss Thailand's arable land, its water resources and especially its efficient labour force which should give us a good laugh :)

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The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/13/sovereign...tha-bykere.html

LaoPo

what did Roubini say that is not known by every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe? :D

:D The difference is Naam, he gets paid to tell everybody, lots of it, and I've heard rumors that the Ladies are very fond of this chap, so he MUST be doing something good, ain't he?

LaoPo

why is nobody paying us? because we are ugly and they ladies do not like us? :)

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